The Theory That Would Not Die
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nuclear weapons and, 125
practical applications: for Bayes’ rule , generally, 139–40, 209, 232
in business, 91–96, 139–53, 176–77
computation and, 177–78
frequentism and, 209
Lindley and, 178
Neyman and, 145
Savage and, 150
social science and, 156–57, 161
Tukey and, 167
Pratt, John W., 139, 147, 149–50, 151, 153, 165, 168, 178
Pratt, Joy, 149–50
predictions, x, 154, 163–64, 166–73, 174–75
Price, Richard, ix, 9, 10–11, 23, 32, 94, 23, 121
Princeton University, 164–65
priors: in Bayes’ rule , generally, 8, 31–32, 87, 139
business and, 142, 149
in communications, 77
computers and, 242, 243–44
conjugate priors, 125, 148, 149
in credibility theory, 96
cryptography and, 74, 83, 99–100
earthquakes and, 55
e-commerce and, 243–44
election results and, 168–69, 171
The Federalist papers and, 160–61
fiducial probability and, 132
finance and, 237–38
Fisher on, 48
frequentism and, 104, 177
genetic science and, 239
in heart disease study, 115
image analysis and, 240
in insurance, 92, 93, 94–95
means and, 131
nuclear weapons and, 121–26, 186, 187–88, 195
objectivity and, 103, 178
operations research and, 79
Pearson , Egon, uses, 49
pharmaceuticals and, 229
probability and, 132
search and, 186, 187–88, 195, 197, 198–202, 203–4, 204–5, 206–8
statistics and, 50, 92, 103, 117, 131
subjectivity and, 129, 178
submarines and, 197, 198–202, 206–8
Tukey and, 168–69
U.S. Coast Guard and, 204–5.
probability: astronomy and, 19
in Bayes’ rule , generally, 6–9, 11, 233–34
beliefs and, 36, 51–52, 156, 233–34
brains and, 249–50
business and, 142, 145–46
of cancer, 255–57
cause-and-effect and, 6, 19–21
cryptography and, 66–67, 82–83
The Federalist papers and, 157–58, 159–61
fiducial probability, 132, 133, 170
frequentism and, 36, 50, 55–57, 99, 130, 142, 145–46, 156, 170
gambling and, 6, 9, 51–52
God and, 19–20
in heart disease study, 115–16
image analysis and, 240
impossibility and, 121
information and, 36, 50, 55–56
insurance and, 8–9, 19
Kolmogorov and, 72, 101
location and, 185–86, 187–88, 191–92, 193, 195, 197, 198–202, 203–4, 204–5, 206–8
mathematics and, 23–24, 33, 72
nuclear energy and, 180
nuclear weapons and, 121–28, 185–86, 187–88, 191–92, 193, 195
objectivity and, 36, 37, 106
operations research and, 79
priors and, 132
robotics and, 240
social sciences and, 64
statistics and, 35, 49–51, 64, 99, 104–5, 106
subjectivity and, 36, 37, 50, 51–52, 103, 104–5, 106, 145
submarines and, 197, 198–202, 206–8
telephone systems and, 41
terminology of, xi
uncertainty and, 19, 26, 52, 55–57, 242
U.S. Coast Guard and, 204–5
utility and, 103.
See also equal probabilities
inverse probability
likelihood
probability of causes.
See inverse probability
prostheses, 249
psychokinetic power, 133
psychologists/psychology, 57, 107, 126, 155, 168, 225, 236
public health, 215–17
p-values, 55–56, 133, 217
quantum mechanics, 57
Quetelet, Adolphe, 37
Racine-Poon, Amy, 224
Radio Corporation of America, 163, 167, 172, 173
Raftery, Adrian, 216–17, 231
Raiffa, Howard: biographical details on, 140, 143–44
business and, 144–53, 168
conjugate priors and, 125, 148, 149
Craven and, 184–85
decision trees of, 140, 148–49, 180
practical applications and, 156, 157, 161
in public policy, 176–77
Rainich, G. Y., 102
Ramsey, Frank P., 52, 58, 67, 87, 103, 147, 148, 233–34
RAND Corporation, 3, 88, 119–28, 194
randomization, 109
Rapp, Elizabeth R., 166, 169
Rasmussen, Norman Carl, 179–80
reason, 4, 35–36
Reber, Rufus K., 184, 191
Reed, Lowell J., 53
Rejewski, Marián, 62
religion: Bayes and, 3–5
Laplace and, 13–14, 14–15, 19–20, 30, 36
mathematics and, 4, 5–6, 11
science and, 30
statistics and, 253–54.
See also God
Renaissance Technologies, 237–38
Richardson, Henry R., 187–92, 194, 195, 197–209
Robbins, Herbert, 134
Robert, Christian P., 224
robotics, 240–41, 249
Rommel, Erwin, 81
Roosevelt, Franklin D., 76
Rosenberg, Ethel and Julius, 85
Rosenberg, James A., 201, 203
Rosenbluth, Arianna and Marshall, 223
Rounthwaite, Robert, 242
Royal Academy of Sciences, 15, 16, 18, 21, 22–23, 29
Royal Society, 4, 5, 9, 10–11, 50, 56–57
Royal Statistical Society, 87, 99, 107, 232
Rubinow, Isaac M., 43
safety: of coal mines, 216–17
of nuclear energy, x, 3, 117, 178–81
of nuclear weapons, 119–28, 182–83, 189–90, 194–95
of space shuttles, x, 103, 215
satellites, 209
Saunderson, Nicholas, 9
Savage, Leonard Jimmie: on Birnbaum, 132
death of, 176
de Finetti and, 95–96
economics and, 135
epidemiology and, 116, 117
on fiducial probability, 132
on Fisher, 46
influence of, 147, 148
Lindley’s Paradox and, 133
mathematics and, 148
Mosteller and, 159
nuclear weapons and, 119–20
practical applications and, 139, 150, 156, 157, 161
probability and, 233–34
publication by, 99, 101–7
on Schlaifer, 142, 148
subjectivity and, 169, 173, 178
Tukey and, 169
at University of Chicago, 156
Savage, Richard, 102
Schlaifer, Robert: biographical details on, 140–41
business and, 141–43, 144, 145, 146–53, 168, 171
computers and, 177
conjugate priors and, 125, 148
practical applications and, 156, 157, 161
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr., 140, 147
Schneider, Stephen H., 235
Schrödinger, Erwin, 105
Schwartz, Andrew B., 249
science, 30, 167.
See also individual fields of
Scott, George C., 127
search: computers and, 195, 197, 199–200, 204
expert opinion and, 185–86
hypotheses and, 185–86, 193, 195, 197, 198
mathematicians and, 186–9, 201
of minesweeping, 184
of Monte Carlo, 199–200, 205
<
br /> of nuclear weapons, x, 3, 182–95
for oil drilling, 149, 209
operations research and, 186–92
priors and, 186, 187–88, 195, 197, 198–202, 203–4, 204–5, 206–8
probability and, 185–86, 187–88, 191–92, 193, 195, 197, 198–202, 203–4, 204–5, 206–8
of satellites, 209
subjectivity and, 185–86, 195, 204–5, 206–8
of submarines, x, 3, 182, 196–203, 206–8
submarines for, 193, 194
of Suez explosives, 203–4
of U-boats, 77–80
uncertainty and, 198, 201, 206–8
by U.S. Coast Guard, 182, 204–6
search effectiveness probability (SEP), 191–92, 195, 197, 203–4
Searle, William F., Jr., 184
Second World War: battles of, 61, 69, 71, 72, 74–75, 77, 80, 81
Bayes’ rule applied during, x, 3, 66–69, 73–74, 75–77, 77–80, 82–86, 215
communications during, 76–77
computers during, 74, 80–82, 83–84
mathematics and, 63–64
operations research during, 77–80
Raiffa during, 143
Schlaifer during, 141
statistics and, 63–64
U-boats in, 61–62, 65–66, 69–70, 71, 74–75, 77–80, 84, 141.
See also Enigma code
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 241
sequential analysis, 67, 69, 144
sexuality, 85–86, 117, 154–55, 166–67
Shafer, Glenn, 32, 129, 219
Shannon, Claude, x, 67, 76–77, 174, 235, 245
shipwrecks, xi
SigSaly voice scrambler, 76
Silver, Nate, 175
Simon, Leroy J., 95
Simpson, Edward H., 82
Simpson, Steven G., 201
Smith, Adrian F. M., 214, 219–22, 224–25, 232
smoking, x, 108–9, 110–14, 115–16
Smyth, Henry, 165
Social Science Research Council, 154
social sciences: frequentism and, 57, 217;
Laplace and, 32
practical applications for, 156–57, 161, 167
probability and, 64
statistics and, 154–55.
See also economics
judicial systems, psychology
space shuttles, x, 103, 215
speech recognition, 245–47
Spiegelhalter, David J., 105, 226, 228, 229
spying, 84–6.
See also cryptography
Stanhope, Philip, second earl of, 5, 6, 9
statistical sampling, 222
statistics: American Statistical Association, 117, 135
cause-and-effect and, 35
classification problems in, 155
computers and, 167, 225
departments of, 97–98, 103, 106, 107, 130, 146, 158, 176, 177, 214
earthquakes and, 54–58
equal probabilities and, 50
federal government uses, 110–11
The Federalist papers and, 155–58, 159–61
frequentism and, 47–48, 87–88, 98–99, 104–5, 142, 214, 234, 253
gambling and, 106–7
genetic science and, 45–48
information in, 49–50, 103, 167
Laplace and, 35
mathematics and, 97–99, 101, 103–6, 130, 157–58, 167, 214
means and, 130–32
military and, 97, 119
nuclear weapons and, 123–24
objectivity and, 103, 106
opinion polls and, 166–67
priors and, 50, 92, 103, 117, 131
probability and, 35, 49–51, 64, 99, 104–5, 106
religion and, 253–54
science and, 130
Second World War and, 63–64
social science and, 154–55
subjectivity and, 50, 103, 104–5, 106, 220
telephone systems and, 39
Stein, Charles, 44, 130–31, 177
Stein’s Paradox, 130–32
Stigler, Stephen M., 9, 34
Stone, Lawrence D., 198–99, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204–5, 207, 209
Strategic Air Command, 119–20, 123, 124–25, 125–26, 126–27, 182–83, 194–95
strokes, 226–27, 244
subjectivity: Bayes’ rule and, generally, ix, x, 8
belief and, 51–52
business and, 142, 145–46, 150, 151
Enigma code and, 67–68
frequentism and, 104, 129
gambling and, 185
information and, 103
insurance and, 44–45, 93
inverse probability and, 36, 37
location and, 185–86, 195, 204–5, 206–8
nuclear energy and, 180
nuclear weapons and, 185–86, 195
priors and, 129, 178
probability and, 36, 37, 50, 51–52, 103, 104–5, 106, 145
Raiffa and, 144–45
reason and, 35–36
statistics and, 50, 103, 104–5, 106, 220
submarines and, 206–8
Tukey and, 169, 173
U.S. Coast Guard and, 204–5
utility and, 103.
See also belief
intuition
submarines: for location, 193, 194
location of, x, 3, 182, 196–203, 206–8
silencing, 141.
See also U-boats
Suez Canal, 203–4
Sulzberger, Arthur, 154
supernova 1987A, 238
Swinburne, Richard, 177
Swirles, Bertha, 54
Tanner, Martin A., 220–21
Tanur, Judith, 174
Taylor, Barbara L., 230
Teledyne Energy Systems, 215
telephone systems, x, 40–42
Teller, Augusta, 223
Teller, Edward, 165, 223
terminology, xi, 8, 129–30
terrorism, 241–42, 247
thinking, 248–51.
See also learning
Three Mile Island, 180–81
Thrun, Sebastian, 240
Thule accident, 194
Tierney, Luke, 224
translation, 245–47
Travis, Robert F., 122
tree-flipping, 149
Tribe, Laurence H., 136
Truman, Harry, 154
Tukey, John W., 77, 159, 163–75, 176, 177, 233
Tunny-Lorenz codes, 73–74, 75, 84
Turchin, Valentin Fedorovich, 219
Turing, Alan M.: biographical details on, 64–65
computers and, 80–82, 84–85, 99
empirical Bayes and, 134
Enigma code and, x, 3, 65–72, 74, 75–76
forensic science and, 235
genetic science and, 239
JN-25 code and, 82
after Second World War, 83–86, 99
Tunny-Lorenz codes and, 74, 75
Tutte, William T., 74
Tversky, Amos, 236
Twinn, Peter, 66, 70, 71
U-boats: battles with, 61, 69, 74–75, 77, 80, 141
Enigma code and, 61–62, 65–66, 69–70, 71, 77, 80, 84
location of, 77–80
Ulam, Stanislaw, 165
uncertainty: Bayes’ rule and, generally, xi, 8
beliefs and, 52
brains and, 248–50
business and, 142, 145–46, 150
computers and, 234
epidemiology and, 116–17
frequentism and, 55–57, 142
gender and, 26
location and, 201, 206–8
military and, 119
nuclear energy and, 180
operations research and, 79
probability and, 19, 26, 52, 55–57, 242
submarines and, 201, 206–8
telephone systems and, 40–42
unified approach, 170
Unwin, Stephen D., 235
updating: Bayes and, 8, 11
Bay
esian networks and, 228
CIA and, 136
Dreyfus and, 39
elections and, 171
insurance and, 92, 95
Laplace and, 33
navy and, 80, 192, 195, 201–2
Netflix and, 244
RAND and 124
Wall Street and, 237
U.S. Air Force, 215.
See also Strategic Air Command
U.S. Census Bureau, 173
U.S. Coast Guard, 182, 204–6
U.S. Navy, 182–95, 196–203, 206–8
U.S.S. Scorpion, 197–203
utility, 103
Van Dusen, Henry P., 154
vision, 248, 250
Volinsky, Christopher T., 243–44
Voltaire, 15
von Humboldt, Alexander, 26–27
von Mises, Hilda, 144
von Mises, Richard, 94
von Neumann, John, 84, 125, 144, 167, 222
voting, 27, 117, 175
Waddington, Conrad H., 78
Wade, Paul R., 231
Wagner, Daniel H., 186–88
Wald, Abraham, 69, 144
Wallace, David: computation and, 134
on cryptography, 173
election results and, 168–69
e-mail filters and, 243
The Federalist papers and, 156–58, 159–61
Tukey and, 170–72, 174–75
Wallis, Allen, 103
Warner, Homer, 135
weapons systems, 240.
See also nuclear weapons
Weaver, Warren, 245
Welchman, Gordon, 65, 70, 71, 74
whales, 230–31
Wheeler, John A., 165
Whitney, Albert Wurts, 43–45, 93, 131
Whitworth, Jimmy, 82
Williams, Frederick, 155–56
Wilson, Matthew A., 248
Wohlstetter, Albert, 123
Wolpert, Daniel, 250
women, 29, 41, 68, 71, 158–59
workers’ compensation insurance, x, 3, 42–45, 93, 131
World Wars. See First World War
Second World War
Wynder, Ernst L., 109, 111
X-rays, 53
Youtz, Cleo, 159, 160
Zeh, Judith, 230–31
Zellner, Arnold, 134–35
Zola, Émile, 39