Arctic Gambit

by Larry Bond

  “Reasonable,” commented Komeyev. “What do you think, Admiral Balakin?”

  “Captain Lavrov’s recommendations are sound,” replied the deputy. “The first is a matter of formality, one that the good captain can handle himself. However, the second will be much harder to implement. Losharik is currently in dry dock undergoing scheduled repairs. She’s not due out for at least another ten days, and then she still has sea trials. I will see if the repairs can be accelerated, but I wouldn’t count on it. Several key maintenance items involve her reactor and main propulsion motor. As for the third recommendation, we can have Vepr sortie immediately.”

  “With all due respect, Admiral Balakin,” Lavrov interrupted. “Even though Vepr is an upgraded Project 971 submarine, she is still a third-generation boat. She is not the technical equal of a Seawolf-class.”

  Komeyev grunted his understanding. “Hmmm, so you’re advising that we should send a fourth-generation submarine, a Project 885M boat?”

  “Yes, sir, a modernized Severodvinsk submarine has the most advanced antisubmarine sensors in our fleet. It has the best chance of detecting an extremely quiet American submarine like the Jimmy Carter. Anything less increases the possibility of this spy submarine slipping past our outer defenses.”

  “What about Belgorod?” Balakin questioned.

  “She is no match for a Seawolf, Admiral Balakin. Since in addition to being a mother ship for Losharik, she also carries her own load of Status-6 torpedoes, she is a priceless strategic asset. I do not believe she should be placed in a situation where there is the slightest risk of her loss. It would be best if Belgorod stayed inside the defensive perimeter as soon as we know the Jimmy Carter has departed the Groton submarine base. This will also reduce the possibility of a friendly fire situation.”

  “We could send two attack boats, split the area into two separate patrol zones,” Drugov suggested, using his hands to illustrate the equally divided patrol areas.

  Lavrov shook his head in disagreement. “The approaches to the Drakon launch facility necks down considerably as you enter Shokal’skogo Strait. There is barely fifty kilometers between October Revolution and Bolshevik Islands, and the navigable waters are even narrower—that’s far too small an area for two submarines to share. The potential for an unintended attack on a friendly unit is much too high.

  “An alternative approach would be to use concentric rings for the search areas and put Vepr in the outer ring, but then again, if the Carter wanted to avoid her, the odds are in their favor they could do so.”

  Stillness filled the room again as the debate died off. Komeyev looked satisfied with the discussion and weighed his options in silence; it didn’t take him long to decide.

  “Admiral Balakin, please prepare the deployment orders for Vepr and Kazan. Have the staff generate two concentric patrol areas with Vepr in the outer ring. Schedule a formal review of their plan for 1000 tomorrow morning. And do what you can to get Losharik ready for sea as soon as possible.

  “Captain Lavrov, I want your intelligence collection requirements on my desk by 0900. Thank you, Comrades, for your wise counsel; now we need to work quickly to implement your recommendations.”

  11 July 2021

  1115 Local Time

  Prima Polar Station

  Bolshevik Island, Russia

  * * *

  Vice Admiral Gorokhov waited impatiently by the secure landline. He’d received word earlier that morning to stand by for an urgent call from Admiral Komeyev at 1100. Gorokhov mentally went over his recent progress reports to try and figure out just what the navy’s senior admiral would want to discuss. Nothing leapt to the front of his mind, which only added to his agitation. He silently half prayed, half pleaded that it wasn’t another friendly urging to speed up the construction of the launch facility. His musings were abruptly terminated by the electronic shriek of the secure phone.

  “Vice Admiral Gorokhov here,” he answered.

  “Nikolai! How is life in paradise treating you?” Komeyev’s voice was a bit warbled due to the encryption process, but his friendly tone was clear.

  “Sir, I apologize a thousand times for whatever I did to deserve such a posting,” replied Gorokhov jokingly.

  “Ah, I’m afraid this is a different kind of self-inflicted wound, Nikolai. You have a well-earned reputation for getting difficult projects completed satisfactorily, and on time.”

  “Damn it! I knew I shouldn’t be so efficient. Next time I promise to be as incompetent as my peers.” Both men laughed, but it was short-lived.

  “So, Admiral Komeyev, to what do I owe the honor of this call?”

  “Bad news, I’m afraid. You see Nikolai, my intelligence staff believe the lost American submarine lies on the ocean floor just outside your doorstep, and that an American spy submarine will likely be coming to pay you a visit.”

  Gorokhov drew a sharp breath; he didn’t believe what he had just heard. Stammering, he replied. “Yo … you’re joking, right? Please tell me you’re joking, sir?”

  “I wish I were. There isn’t a lot to go on, but the Jimmy Carter pulled into the Groton sub base a couple of days ago, and the only thing that makes any sense is that she came to look for their lost submarine. Unfortunately, the defensive minefield around your construction project is the most likely cause for the loss of USS Toledo.”

  “Dear God, that’s incredible! How did the Americans find out so quickly? The minefield was to be a defense against a preemptive attack. It was intentionally placed just inside the twelve-mile limit for that reason.”

  “We don’t think they have a clear idea as to what is going on, Nikolai, at least not yet, but we have to prepare for the worst. I’m sending two attack submarines, Vepr and Kazan, to patrol off your defensive zone. What is the status of your fixed hydroacoustic sensor field?”

  “They just finished the calibration of the last Sever modules yesterday,” grumbled Gorokhov. “We finally have a fully operational system monitoring the northern and southern approaches to the strait.”

  “That’s good, Nikolai. Now, listen. Our two boats will be leaving within a day or two and should be in your area a few days later, so I think you’ll be well covered. Drill your Sever system operators hard, Admiral. They have got to be on their toes if the Carter does come north. She’s a Seawolf-class submarine, and I don’t think I have to tell you what a bitch of a time we’ll have in finding her.”

  Gorokhov found himself nodding; he was well aware of the capabilities of America’s fourth-generation attack submarines. “I will begin additional training as soon as we’re done with this phone call. Is there anything else, sir?”

  “Yes, Nikolai,” sighed Komeyev. “I’m briefing the president and the minister of defense in one hour; the president is going to ask what we are doing to speed up construction. I know what you’ve said before, what I need to know now is, are there any tricks up your sleeve that you or your project engineer haven’t already used?”

  “I’m sorry, Admiral Komeyev, but we are moving as fast as we can. The cabling has been laid to the launchers and we’ve just started installing the electronics modules. We are on schedule, but I’m working my divers as hard as I can right now. If nothing else goes wrong, and the weather holds, we can start receiving the Drakon torpedoes for loading later this month. That’s a little ahead of schedule, but we can’t afford to have any problems, at all, from here on out. And you know as well as I just how unlikely that is.”

  “I understand,” Komeyev replied. “Just do the best you can, and I’ll do what I can to keep President Fedorin off your backside. Good luck, Nikolai.”

  “Thank you, sir, now if you’ll excuse me.”

  The click came without a formal farewell, but Komeyev knew his friend was probably screaming orders to his staff at this very moment. Well, he’d alerted the Project Drakon commander; now all Komeyev had to do was figure out how he was going to deal with the dragon in Moscow.

  11 July 2021

  1300 EASTERN DA
YLIGHT TIME

  CNN International Affairs

  * * *

  “Pentagon officials have confirmed that the First Guards Tank Army, which entered Belarus a little over a week ago, has not deployed into their new bases as previously announced, but continued moving, right up to the border of Latvia and Lithuania. In addition, the Sixth Army in St. Petersburg has begun moving units southwest toward the border with Estonia.” Christine Laird paused to take a deep breath, as well as collect her thoughts. Within a matter of two weeks, the European border with Russia had been transformed into a powder keg, with both Russian and NATO officials now seriously talking about the possibility of armed conflict.

  “Russian Federation President Ivan Fedorin has claimed the troop movements are precautionary and defensive in nature, to protect Russian citizens from unprovoked attack by NATO forces now building up in the Baltic States. Fedorin’s rhetoric has been especially acerbic since the collision of a Russian fighter with an Estonian F-16 on June twenty-fourth. In his latest speech to the State Duma given yesterday, Fedorin accused the Estonians of attacking a Russian Federation aircraft, in Russian airspace, a hostile act on the verge of war.

  “The North Atlantic Council, the principal decision-making body in NATO, has vehemently denied this accusation, pointing to the fact that the Russian pilot was safely recovered from waters of Lake Peipus nearly ten kilometers on the Estonian side of the border. These latest troop movements within the Western Military District, when combined with rumors of similar redeployments in both the Southern and Central Military Districts, all point to a Russian military that is mobilizing en masse.

  “President Lowell Hardy has offered, on numerous occasions, to meet directly with President Fedorin to try and resolve the issues that concern the Russian Federation. Fedorin, however, has blatantly refused to meet with Hardy, stating that he can’t work with a man that ‘murdered’ seventy-three Russian seamen on the submarine Gepard back in 2005 when Hardy was the commanding officer of the USS Memphis.

  “Until President Hardy issues an apology for his actions, and pays compensation to the families, Fedorin will not even consider meeting with the American leader.”

  7

  DISCOVERY

  12 July 2021

  1600 Eastern Daylight Time

  Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Intelligence and Analysis

  Langley, Virginia

  * * *

  The data Jimmy Carter’s crew brought back had been a revelation, critically important to many people, but taking them in several different directions.

  Navy officialdom was occupied with deciding how much to tell Toledo’s families, without telling them too much. The civilian leadership was trying to figure out what Toledo’s loss told them about what was happening on Bolshevik Island. And James Perry’s job was to answer the pressing question of why the Russians were going to such great lengths to build a shore installation for a weapon that needed to be launched at sea.

  In strategic terms, the Status-6 was slow, even slower than a manned bomber, and about as non-covert as a weapon could be. Its only strength was its virtual invulnerability once it was launched. That made it an excellent retaliatory or second-wave weapon. Whatever the strength of America’s ballistic missile defenses, now or in the future, they couldn’t touch a torpedo that swam at a hundred knots a thousand meters deep.

  But putting it in a fixed launch site offered few advantages, and took away its greatest strength. Because Perry didn’t believe the Russians were blindingly stupid, he was determined to find out why they thought this basing concept was necessary.

  The photos Carter had brought back provided a vital clue. One of the shots showed a section of pipe, more accurately a large cylinder, being handled by a crane. A junior analyst who worked for him, and who should have known better, had stated in a report that the tube’s size was “consistent with a Status-6 torpedo.” This was supported by a hatch on one end that could be used to load a weapon, and “different pipe fittings and connections that could be part of the launch mechanism.”

  Perry had summoned the analyst and chewed her out—politely but firmly. Exactly how big was the cylinder? Standard photogrammetric techniques could tell her that. What was it made of? Steel? Titanium? If steel, what kind of alloy could it be made of? Was a standard-sized industrial product used for this task, or a custom-built military component? That would help them track down the manufacturer. What could the fittings on the end be used for?

  He understood she’d been under tremendous time pressure, but an intelligence analyst’s job, especially right now, was to give the president every scrap of information possible. His job was to fit those scraps together into a coherent hypothesis, if he could, or generate more questions to help refine the analysis if he couldn’t.

  Her revised report, delivered the next afternoon, had estimated the cylinder’s dimensions as two meters in diameter and twenty-eight meters long. Fuzzy close-ups of the fittings had identified possible air and hydraulic lines and probable electrical connections. According to the metallurgical experts she’d contacted, the tube was probably constructed from standard structural steel. No special alloys would be needed in this application. The fabrication methods required to construct such a cylinder were equally conventional.

  A little disappointed, Perry had been hoping to get clues about the thing by locating the manufacturer, but without some unique feature, that was going to take a while. Still, it was a much better report than the earlier one, and every bit of information could be useful. Everyone said so, anyway.

  The dimensions in her report matched his own back-of-the-envelope figures, but they bothered him a little. A Status-6 torpedo was 1.6 meters in diameter. The cylinder was close to two meters. The weapon was twenty-four meters long, while the cylinder was twenty-eight meters.

  What was all that extra space for? Conventional twenty-one-inch torpedoes fit neatly in a twenty-one-inch torpedo tube with only a fraction of an inch clearance around it and a foot or two separation from the muzzle door. In fact, the weapon had to fill the space inside the torpedo tube, or it wouldn’t launch properly.

  So why did they need the extra half meter in diameter and four meters of additional length? The only thing he’d ever heard of going into a tube with the torpedo was the dispenser that carried some of the guidance wire. The Status-6 was definitely not wire-guided. Was their estimate of the Status-6’s size incorrect? It was possible, but not very likely.

  He spent several hours going through everything he had on the Russian wonder weapon, comparing its size to the subs that carried it and the engineering analysis that had been done. There was even a cutaway drawing, based on the now famous November 2015 “leak” of the Status-6, engineered by the Russians.

  Perry grunted with satisfaction; earlier analysis still checked out. But that didn’t help him explain what was going on now.

  His next stop was the original HUMINT reports that had triggered the creation of the Tensor compartment. It was actually a cluster of three short messages. The first described an improved model of the Status-6 land-attack torpedo. The second mentioned Bolshevik Island and said that they were adapting the weapon for shore-based launch. The third reaffirmed the launch facility location and reiterated that the weapon would be much improved.

  But what were the improvements? Perry wished the source had provided more details, but dismissed his feelings of frustration. He couldn’t imagine what it was like for someone to do what the spy did; not just for a moment, or for a short time, but for weeks, months, perhaps even years. Perry knew he couldn’t live with that kind of never-ending risk. That the U.S. knew about this project at all was a miracle.

  The spy’s three messages had been decoded, and then translated. The printout that Perry held displayed the original message in Russian, and then repeated it twice, first translated into English, and then a transliteration of the original Cyrillic.

  “Improved.” Perry’s Russian was pretty bad, but he could follo
w along, comparing the English and Russian text. The word for “improved” in Russian was “uluchshen,” and the spy had used that word in the first message. In the third message, though, they’d translated “bolshaya” as “improved.” One of the meanings for bolshaya was “better,” but others included “greater, major, larger, massive,” and “big.” Had the translator been thinking about the first two messages when he worked on the third? Was the improvement a “larger” torpedo?

  His mind asked again, But what improvements? The thing didn’t need to go any deeper or faster, and in both cases smaller was better. Its range was already ridiculously long. A bigger warhead, perhaps? Perry thought a twenty-plus megaton blast was quite big enough, thank you very much.

  Perry rubbed his eyes; a larger size wasn’t sufficient to justify being called an improvement all by itself. Something had changed, requiring the increased size. And that would, in turn, require a larger launch tube, which meant it wouldn’t fit aboard the Khabarovsk-class subs or Belgorod. He’d just checked both subs’ specifications for the third time. Hell, the torpedo wouldn’t even fit in the missile tubes of the massive Typhoon!

  It would take years to design a new submarine to carry the larger torpedoes, and many more years to build them. The new sub design might carry fewer weapons, but it would probably be much larger, and more costly. In that sense, a shore installation would be cheaper, and allow the weapon to be placed in service much more quickly.

  Perry sighed. He had to write a daily report on his progress. Luckily, he was supposed to keep it short. DNI Peakes was a busy man.

  “It is likely that the weapon to be deployed at the Prima site is larger than the Status-6 torpedo, with approximate dimensions of about 1.9 meters in diameter and 27 meters in length, compared with 1.6 meters and 24 meters for the first weapon. This increase in size may be required by a new payload, since an increase in speed or range is not necessary to accomplish its mission and are inconsistent with the change in dimensions.”