The Black Swan

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Ronis, D. L., and J. F. Yates, 1987, “Components of Probability Judgment Accuracy: Individual Consistency and Effects of Subject Matter and Assessment Method.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 40: 193–218.

  Rosch, E., 1978, “Principles of Categorization.” In E. Rosch and B. B. Lloyd, eds., Cognition and Categorization. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

  Rosch, E. H., 1973, “Natural Categories.” Cognitive Psychology 4: 328–350.

  Rose, Steven, 2003, The Making of Memory: From Molecules to Mind, revised ed. New York: Vintage.

  Rosen, S., 1981, “The Economics of Superstars.” American Economic Review 71: 845–858.

  Rosenzweig, Phil, 2006, The Halo Effect and Other Business Delusions: Why Experts Are So Often Wrong and What Wise Managers Must Know. New York: The Free Press.

  Ross, Stephen A., 2004, Neoclassical Finance. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Rosser, B., 2009, “How complex are the Austrians?,” working paper.

  Rounding, Virginia, 2006, Catherine the Great: Love, Sex and Power. London: Hutchinson.

  Ruelle, David, 1991, Hasard et chaos. Paris: Odile Jacob.

  Ruffié, Jacques, 1977, De la biologie à la culture. Paris: Flammarion.

  Russell, Bertrand, 1912, The Problems of Philosophy. New York: Oxford University Press.

  ———, 1993, My Philosophical Development. London: Routledge.

  ———, 1996, Sceptical Essays. London: Routledge.

  Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoernaker, 1992, “Managing Overconfidence.” Sloan Management Review 33(2): 7–17.

  Ryle, Gilbert, 1949, The Concept of Mind. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

  Salganik, Matthew J., Peter S. Dodds, and Duncan J. Watts, 2006, “Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market.” Science 311: 854–856.

  Saliba, George, 2007, Islamic Science and the Making of the European Renaissance (Transformations: Studies in the History of Science and Technology). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

  Samuelson, Paul A., 1983, Foundations of Economic Analysis. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

  Sapolsky, Robert M., 1998, Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers: An Updated Guide to Stress, Stress-related Diseases, and Coping. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company.

  Sapolsky, Robert, M., and the Department of Neurology and Neurological Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, 2003, “Glucocorticoids and Hippocampal Atrophy in Neuropsychiatric Disorders.”

  Savage, Leonard J., 1972, The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Dover.

  Schacter, Daniel L., 2001, The Seven Sins of Memory: How the Mind Forgets and Remembers. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

  Schelling, Thomas, 1971, “Dynamic Models of Segregation.” Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1: 143–186.

  ———, 1978, Micromotives and Macrobehavior. New York: W. W. Norton and Company.

  Scheps, Ruth, ed., 1996, Les sciences de la prévision. Paris: Éditions du Seuil.

  Schroeder, Manfred, 1991, Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws: Minutes from an Infinite Paradise. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company.

  Schumpeter, Joseph, 1942, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper.

  Seglen, P. O., 1992, “The Skewness of Science.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science 43: 628–638.

  Sextus Empiricus, 2000, Outline of Scepticism, edited by Julia Annas and Jonathan Barnes. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  ———, 2005, Against the Logicians, translated and edited by Richard Bett. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  Shackle, G.L.S., 1961, Decision Order and Time in Human Affairs. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

  ———, 1973, Epistemics and Economics: A Critique of Economic Doctrines. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Shanteau, J., 1992, “Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 53: 252–266.

  Sharpe, William F., 1994, “The Sharpe Ratio.” Journal of Portfolio Management 21(1): 49–58.

  ———, 1996, “Mutual Fund Performance.” Journal of Business 39: 119–138.

  Shiller, Robert J., 1981, “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” American Economic Review 71(3): 421–436.

  ———, 1989, Market Volatility. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  ———, 1990, “Market Volatility and Investor Behavior.” American Economic Review 80(2): 58–62.

  ———, 1995, “Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior.” American Economic Review 85(2): 181–185.

  ———, 2000, Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  ———, 2003, The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Shizgal, Peter, 1999, “On the Neural Computation of Utility: Implications from Studies of Brain Simulation Rewards.” In D. Kahneman, E. Diener, and N. Schwarz, eds., 1999.

  Sieff, E. M., R. M. Dawes, and G. Loewenstein, 1999, “Anticipated Versus Actual Reaction to HIV Test Results.” American Journal of Psychology 122: 297–311.

  Silverberg, Gerald, and Bart Verspagen, 2004, “The Size Distribution of Innovations Revisited: An Application of Extreme Value Statistics to Citation and Value Measures of Patent Significance,” www.merit.unimaas.nl/publications/rmpdf/2004/rm2004-021.pdf.

  ———, 2005, “Self-organization of R&D Search in Complex Technology Spaces,” www.merit.unimaas.nl/publications/rmpdf/2005/rm2005-017.pdf.

  Simon, Herbert A., 1955, “On a Class of Skew Distribution Functions.” Biometrika 42: 425–440.

  ———, 1987, “Behavioral Economics.” In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987.

  Simonton, Dean Keith, 1999, Origins of Genius: Darwinian Perspectives on Creativity. New York: Oxford University Press.

  ———, 2004, Creativity. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  Sloman, S. A., 1993, “Feature Based Induction.” Cognitive Psychology 25: 231–280.

  ———, 1994, “When Explanations Compete: The Role of Explanatory Coherence on Judgments of Likelihood.” Cognition 52: 1–21.

  ———, 1996, “The Empirical Case for Two Systems of Reasoning.” Psychological Bulletin 119: 3–22.

  ———, 1998, “Categorical Inference Is Not a Tree: The Myth of Inheritance Hierarchies.” Cognitive Psychology 35: 1–33.

  ———, 2002, “Two Systems of Reasoning.” In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

  Sloman, S. A., B. C. Love, and W. Ahn, 1998, “Feature Centrality and Conceptual Coherence.” Cognitive Science 22: 189–228.

  Sloman, S. A., and B. C. Malt, 2003, “Artifacts Are Not Ascribed Essences, Nor Are They Treated as Belonging to Kinds.” Language and Cognitive Processes 18: 563–582.

  Sloman, S. A., and D. Over, 2003, “Probability Judgment from the Inside and Out.” In D. Over, ed., Evolution and the Psychology of Thinking: The Debate. New York: Psychology Press.

  Sloman, S. A., and L. J. Rips, 1998, “Similarity as an Explanatory Construct.” Cognition 65: 87–101.

  Slovic, Paul, M. Finucane, E. Peters, and D. G. MacGregor, 2003a, “Rational Actors or Rational Fools? Implications of the Affect Heuristic for Behavioral Economics.” Working Paper, www.decisionresearch.com.

  ———, 2003b, “Risk as Analysis, Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk,

  and Rationality.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, New Orleans, La., December 10, 2002.

  Slovic, P., M. Finucane, E. Peters, and D. G. MacGregor, 2002, “The Affect Heuristic.” In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

  Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein, 1976, “Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking.” In John S. Carroll and John W. Payne, eds., Cognition and Social Behavior. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

 
; ———, 1977, “Behavioral Decision Theory.” Annual Review of Psychology 28: 1–39.

  Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, S. Lichtenstein, B. Corrigan, and B. Combs, 1977, “Preference for Insuring Against Probable Small Losses: Implications for the Theory and Practice of Insurance.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 44: 237–258. Reprinted in P. Slovic, ed., The Perception of Risk. London: Earthscan.

  Slovic, Paul, 1987, “Perception of Risk.” Science 236: 280–285.

  ———, 2001, The Perception of Risk. London: Earthscan.

  Sniezek, J. A., and R. A. Henry, 1989, “Accuracy and Confidence in Group Judgement.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 43(11): 1–28.

  Sniezek, J. A., and T. Buckley, 1993, “Decision Errors Made by Individuals and Groups.” In N. J. Castellan, ed., Individual and Group Decision Making. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

  Snyder, A. W., 2001, “Paradox of the Savant Mind.” Nature 413: 251–252.

  Snyder A. W., E. Mulcahy, J. L. Taylor, D. J. Mitchell, P. Sachdev, and S. C. Gandevia, 2003,

  “Savant-like Skills Exposed in Normal People by Suppression of the Left Fronto-temporal Lobe. Journal of Integrative Neuroscience 2: 149–158.

  Soll, J. B., 1996, “Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65: 117–137.

  Sornette, D., F. Deschâtres, T. Gilbert, and Y. Ageon, 2004, “Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks: An Empirical Test.” Physical Review Letters 93: 228701.

  Sornette, D., and K. Ide, 2001, “The Kalman-Levy Filter,” Physica D 151: 142–174.

  Sornette, Didier, 2003, Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  ———, 2004, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, 2nd ed. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer.

  Sornette, Didier, and Daniel Zajdenweber, 1999, “The Economic Return of Research: The Pareto Law and Its Implications.” European Physical Journal B 8(4): 653–664.

  Soros, George, 1988, The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market. New York: Simon & Schuster.

  Spariosu, Mihai I., 2004, The University of Global Intelligence and Human Development: Towards an Ecology of Global Learning. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  Spasser, Mark A., 1997, “The Enacted Fate of Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science 48(8): 707–717.

  Spencer, B. A., and G. S. Taylor, 1988, “Effects of Facial Attractiveness and Gender on Causal Attributions of Managerial Performance.” Sex Roles 19(5/6): 273–285.

  Sperber, Dan, 1996a, La contagion des idées. Paris: Odile Jacob.

  ———, 1996b, Explaining Culture: A Naturalistic Approach. Oxford: Blackwell.

  ———, 1997, “Intuitive and Reflective Beliefs.” Mind and Language 12(1): 67–83.

  ———, 2001, “An Evolutionary Perspective on Testimony and Argumentation.” Philosophical Topics 29: 401–413.

  Sperber, Dan, and Deirdre Wilson, 1995, Relevance: Communication and Cognition, 2nd ed. Oxford: Blackwell.

  ———, 2004a, “Relevance Theory.” In L. R. Horn, and G. Ward, eds., The Handbook of Pragmatics. Oxford: Blackwell.

  ———, 2004b, “The Cognitive Foundations of Cultural Stability and Diversity.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 8(1): 40–44.

  Squire, Larry, and Eric R. Kandel, 2000, Memory: From Mind to Molecules. New York: Owl Books.

  Stanley, H. E., L. A. N. Amaral, P. Gopikrishnan, and V. Plerou, 2000, “Scale Invariance and Universality of Economic Fluctuations.” Physica A 283: 31–41.

  Stanley, T. J., 2000, The Millionaire Mind. Kansas City: Andrews McMeel Publishing.

  Stanley, T. J., and W. D. Danko, 1996, The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America’s Wealthy. Atlanta, Ga.: Longstreet Press.

  Stanovich, K., and R. West, 2000, “Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23: 645–665.

  Stanovich, K. E., 1986, “Matthew Effects in Reading: Some Consequences of Individual Differences in the acquisition of literacy.” Reading Research Quarterly 21: 360–407.

  Stein, D. L., ed., 1989, Lectures in the Sciences of Complexity. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

  Sterelny, Kim, 2001, Dawkins vs. Gould: Survival of the Fittest. Cambridge, England: Totem Books.

  Stewart, Ian, 1989, Does God Play Dice? The New Mathematics of Chaos. London: Penguin Books.

  ———, 1993, “Chaos.” In Leo Howe and Alan Wain, eds., 1993.

  Stigler, Stephen M., 1986, The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University.

  ———, 2002, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

  Stiglitz, Joseph, 1994, Whither Socialism. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  Strawson, Galen, 1994, Mental Reality. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  ———, 2004, “Against Narrativity.” Ratio 17: 428–452.

  Strogatz, S. H., 1994, Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, with Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

  Strogatz, Steven H., 2001, “Exploring Complex Networks.” Nature 410: 268–276.

  ———, 2003, Sync: How Order Emerges from Chaos in the Universe, Nature, and Daily Life. New York: Hyperion.

  Suantak, L., F. Bolger, and W. R. Ferrell, 1996, “The Hard–easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 67: 201–221.

  Suddendorf, Thomas, 2006, “Enhanced: Foresight and Evolution of the Human Mind.” Science 312(5776): 1006–1007.

  Sullivan, R., A. Timmermann, and H. White, 1999, “Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap.” Journal of Finance 54: 1647–1692.

  Sunstein, Cass R., 2002, Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Surowiecki, James, 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday.

  Sushil, Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.” Journal of Political Economy 100(5): 992–1026.

  Sutton, J., 1997, “Gibrat’s Legacy.” Journal of Economic Literature 35: 40–59.

  Swanson, D. R., 1986a, “Fish Oil, Raynaud’s Syndrome and Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 30(1): 7–18.

  ———, 1986b, “Undiscovered Public Knowledge.” Library Quarterly 56: 103–118.

  ———, 1987, “Two Medical Literatures That Are Logically but Not Bibliographically Connected.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science 38: 228–233.

  Swets, J. A., R. M. Dawes, and J. Monahan, 2000a, “Better Decisions Through Science.” Scientific American (October): 82–87.

  ———, 2000b, “Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions.” Psychogical Science in the Public Interest 1: 1–26.

  Szenberg, Michael, ed., 1992, Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Tabor, M., 1989, Chaos and Integrability in Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction. New York: Wiley.

  Taine, Hippolyte Adolphe, 1868, 1905. Les philosophes classiques du XIXe siècle en France, 9ème éd. Paris: Hachette.

  Taleb, N. N., 1997, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options. New York: Wiley.

  ———, 2004a (2001, 1st ed.), Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. New York: Random House.

  ———, 2004b, “These Extreme Exceptions of Commodity Derivatives.” In Helyette Geman, Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. New York: Wiley.

  ———, 2004c, “Bleed or Bl
owup: What Does Empirical Psychology Tell Us About the Preference for Negative Skewness?” Journal of Behavioral Finance 5(1): 2–7.

  ———, 2004d, “The Black Swan: Why Don’t We Learn That We Don’t Learn?” Paper presented at the United States Department of Defense Highland Forum, Summer 2004.

  ———, 2004e, “Roots of Unfairness.” Literary Research/Recherche Littéraire 21(41–42): 241–254.

  ———, 2004f, “On Skewness in Investment Choices.” Greenwich Roundtable Quarterly 2.

  ———, 2005, “Fat Tails, Asymmetric Knowledge, and Decision Making: Essay in Honor of Benoît Mandelbrot’s 80th Birthday.” Technical paper series, Wilmott (March): 56–59.

  ———, 2006a, “Homo Ludens and Homo Economicus.” Foreword to Aaron Brown’s The Poker Face of Wall Street. New York: Wiley.

  ———, 2006b, “On Forecasting.” In John Brockman, ed., In What We Believe But Cannot Prove: Today’s Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty. New York: Harper Perennial.

  ———, 2007, “Black Swan and Domains of Statistics,” The American Statistician 61, (3)3 (Aug. 2007).

  ———, 2008, “Infinite Variance and the Problems of Practice,” Complexity 14.

  ———, 2009, “Errors, Robustness, and the Fourth Quadrant,” International Journal of Forecasting 25(4).

  ———, 2010, “Common Errors in the Interpretation of the Ideas of The Black Swan and Associated Papers,” Critical Review 21:4 (withdrawn).

  Taleb, N. N., and R. Douady, 2010, “Undecidability of Probabilistic Measures: On the Inconsistency of Estimating Probabilities from a Sample Without Binding A Priori Assumptions on the Class of Acceptable Probabilities” (preprint, NYU-Poly).

  Taleb, N. N., D. G. Goldstein, and M. Spitznagel, 2009, “The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management,” Harvard Business Review (October 2009).

  Taleb, N. N., and D. Goldstein, 2010, “The Telescope Problem” (preprint, NYU-Poly).

  Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, and Avital Pilpel, 2004, “I problemi epistemologici del risk management.” In Daniele Pace, a cura di, Economia del rischio: Antologia di scritti su rischio e decisione economica. Milano: Giuffrè.

  ———2007, “Epistemology and Risk Management,” Risk and Regulation 13 (summer 2007).