Scorecasting

by Tobias Moskowitz

  WHISTLE SWALLOWING

  Asch, D. A., J. Baron, J. C. Hershey, H. Kunreuther, J. Meszaros, I. Ritov, and M. Spranca. “Omission Bias and Pertussis Vaccination.” Medical Decision Making 14, no. 2 (Apr.–June 1994): 118–23.

  Baron, J., G. B. Holzman, and J. Schulkin. “Attitudes of Obstetricians and Gynecologists Toward Hormone Replacement Therapy.” Medical Decision Making 18, no. 4 (1998): 406–11.

  Cervone, Daniel, and Tobias J. Moskowitz. “Whistle Swallowing: Officiating and the Omission Bias.” Working paper, University of Chicago and Harvard University (Mar. 2010).

  Kordes-de Vaal, H. Johanna. “Intention and the Omission Bias: Omissions Perceived as Nondecisions.” Acta Psychologica 93 (1996): 161–72.

  Price, Joseph, Marc Remer, and Daniel F. Stone. “Sub-Perfect Game: Profitable Biases of NBA Referees” (Dec. 1, 2009). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1377964

  Spranca, M., E. Minsk, and J. Baron. “Omission and Commission in

  Judgment and Choice.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 27 (1991): 76–105.

  GO FOR IT

  Adams, Christopher. “Estimating the Value of ‘Going for It’ (When No One Does),” Dec. 12, 2006. http://ssrn.com/abstract=950987

  Bisland, R. B. “A Stochastic CAI Model for Assisting in the Design of Football Strategy.” SIGSIM Simul. Dig. 10, nos. 1–2 (Sep. 1978): 28–30. http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/1102786.1102790

  Boronico, J. S., and S. L. Newbert. “Play Calling Strategy in American Football: A Game-Theoretic Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach.” Journal of Sport Management 13, no. 2 (1999): 103–13.

  Carter, Virgil, and Robert E. Machol. “Optimal Strategies on Fourth Down.” Management Science 24, no. 16 (Dec. 1978): 1758–62.

  Romer, David H. “Do Firms Maximize?: Evidence from Professional Football.” Journal of Political Economy (University of Chicago Press) 114, no. 2 (Apr. 2006): 340–65.

  ______. “It’s Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?: A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy.” NBER Working Paper No. W9024 (June 2002). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=316803

  Rubenson, D. L. “On Creativity, Economics, and Baseball.” Creativity Research Journal 4, no. 2 (1991): 205–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10400419109534391

  HOW COMPETITIVE ARE COMPETITIVE SPORTS?

  El-Hodiri, Mohamed, and James Quirk. “An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League.” Journal of Political Economy (University of Chicago Press) 79, no. 6 (Nov.–Dec. 1971): 1302–19.

  Humphreys, Brad R. “Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues.” Journal of Sports Economics 3, no. 2 (May 2002): 133–48.

  Neale, Walter C. “The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sports: A Contribution to the Theory of the Firm in Sporting Competition and in Market Competition.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 78, no. 1 (1964): 1–14.

  Ross, Stephen F., and Stefan Szymanski. “Open Competition in League Sports.” Wisconsin Law Review, 2002: 625. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=350960 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.350960

  Szymanski, Stefan. “The Champions League and the Coase Theorem.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 54, no. 3 (July 2007): 355–73. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=992044 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2007.00419.x

  Vrooman, John. “A General Theory of Professional Sports Leagues.” Southern Economic Journal 61, no. 4 (Apr. 1995): 971–90.

  TIGER WOODS IS HUMAN

  Carmon, Ziv, and Dan Ariely. “Focusing on the Forgone: How Value Can Appear So Different to Buyers and Sellers.” Journal of Consumer Research, 2000.

  Kahneman, D., J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler. “Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem.” Journal of Political Economy 98 (1990): 1325–48.

  Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions Under Risk.” Econometrica 47 (1979): 263–91.

  Pope, Devin G., and Maurice E. Schweitzer. “Is Tiger Woods Loss Averse?: Persistent Bias in the Face of Experience, Competition, and High Stakes.” American Economic Review, June 13, 2009.

  Thaler, R. “Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1 (1980): 39–60.

  Tom, Sabrina M., Craig R. Fox, Christopher Trepel, and Russell A. Poldrack. “The Neural Basis of Loss Aversion in Decision-Making Under Risk.” Science 315 (2007): 515–18.

  THE VALUE OF A BLOCKED SHOT

  Huizinga, J. “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan.” MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, 2010.

  ROUNDING FIRST

  Franke, R., W. Mayew, and Y. Sun. “Do Pennies Matter?: Investor Relations Consequences of Small Negative Earnings Surprises.” Review of Accounting Studies 15, no. 1: 220–42.

  Pope, D., and U. Simonsohn. “Round Numbers as Goals: Evidence from Baseball, SAT Takers, and the Lab.” Psychological Science, in press.

  THANKS, MR. ROONEY

  Madden, Janice F., and Matthew Ruther. “Has the NFL’s Rooney Rule Efforts ‘Leveled the Field’ for African American Head Coach Candidates?” Working paper, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, 2010.

  SO, WHAT IS DRIVING THE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE?

  Asch, S. E. “Opinions and Social Pressure.” Scientific American 193 (1955): 31–35.

  Boyko, R., A. Boyko, and M. Boyko. “Referee Bias Contributes to Home Advantage in English Premiership Football.” Journal of Sports Sciences 25, no. 11 (2007): 1185–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410601038576

  Gandar, John M., Richard A. Zuber, and Reinhold P. Lamb. “The Home Field Advantage Revisited: A Search for the Bias in Other Sports Betting Markets.” Journal of Economics and Business 53, no. 4 (Jul.–Aug. 2001): 439–53. ISSN 0148–6195, DOI 10.1016/S0148–6195(01)00040–6 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/

  article/B6V7T-43DDWDC-6/2/120251992599a1f59f7edca7ee5f8be4)

  Johnston, R. “On Referee Bias, Crowd Size, and Home Advantage in the English Soccer Premiership.” Journal of Sports Sciences 26, no. 6 (2008): 563–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410701736780

  Nevill, A. M., N. J. Balmer, and A. Mark Williams. “The Influence of Crowd Noise and Experience upon Refereeing Decisions in Football.” Psychology of Sport and Exercise 3, no. 4 (Oct. 2002): 261–72. ISSN 1469–0292; DOI 10.1016/S1469–0292(01)00033–4 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/

  B6W6K-44B6RRV-1/2/0b8c6ecf53aa433e8aeb7c55e9e2e2b4)

  Nevill, A. M., and R. L. Holder. “Home Advantage in Sport: An Overview of Studies on the Advantage of Playing at Home.” Sports Medicine 28, no. 4 (Oct 1999): 221–36 (16).

  Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, and Mikael Priks. “Behavior Under Social Pressure: Empty Italian Stadiums and Referee Bias.” Economics Letters 108, no. 2 (Aug. 2010): 212–14. ISSN 0165–1765; DOI 10.1016/j.econlet.2010.04.023 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4YWYYNG-1

  /2/50f3eba6b28930d3ee61ac5d7093208d)

  Pollard, R. “Home Advantage in Soccer: A Retrospective Analysis.” Journal of Sports Sciences 4, no. 3 (1986): 237–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640418608732122

  Schwartz, Barry, and Stephen F. Barsky. “The Home Advantage.” Social Forces 55, no. 3 (Mar. 1977): 641–62.

  Sherif, Muzafer. The Psychology of Social Norms. New York: Harper Collins, 1936.

  Smith, Erin E., and Jon D. Groetzinger. “Do Fans Matter?: The Effect of Attendance on the Outcomes of Major League Baseball Games.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 6, no. 1 (2010), article 4.

  Sutter, Matthias, and Martin G. Kocher. “Favoritism of Agents: The Case of Referees’ Home Bias.” Journal of Economic Psychology 25, no. 4 (Aug. 2004): 461–69. ISSN 0167–4870; DOI: 10.1016/S0167–4870 (03)00013–8 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8H-4841015–3

  /2/c440623bda16562409bc873e4592860f)

  Vergin, Roger C., and John J. Sosik. “No Place Like Home: An Examination of the Home Field Ad
vantage in Gambling Strategies in NFL Football.” Journal of Economics and Business 51, no. 1 (Jan. 2, 1999): 21–31. ISSN 0148–6195; DOI 10.1016/S0148–6195 (98)00025–3. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/

  B6V7T-3XG7J46-2/2/27b182f8b90352382564cf7ce55344f8)

  OFF THE CHART

  Eschker, E., S. J. Perez, and M. V. Siegler. “The NBA and the Influx of International Basketball Players.” Applied Economics 36, no. 10 (2004): 1009–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000246713

  Grier, Kevin B., and Robert D. Tollison. “The Rookie Draft and Competitive Balance: The Case of Professional Football.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (Elsevier) 25, no. 2 (Oct. 1994): 293–98.

  Kahn, Lawrence M. “The Sports Business as a Labor Market Laboratory.” Journal of Economic Perspectives (American Economic Association) 14, no. 3 (Summer 2000): 75–94.

  Kahn, Lawrence M., and Malav Shah. “Race, Compensation, and Contract Length in the NBA: 2001–2002.” Industrial Relations 44, no. 3 (July 2005): 444–62. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=739935

  Massey, Cade, and Richard H. Thaler. “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft,” Aug. 14, 2010. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=697121

  Rosen, Sherwin, and Allen Sanderson. “Labor Markets in Professional Sports.” NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., no. 7573 (2000). http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7573

  Staw, Barry M., and Ha Hoang. “Sunk Costs in the NBA: Why Draft Order Affects Playing Time and Survival in Professional Basketball.” Administrative Science Quarterly 40, no. 3 (Sep. 1995): 474–94.

  Thaler, Richard. The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life. New York: Free Press, 1991.

  HOW A COIN TOSS TRUMPS ALL

  Burke, Brian, advancedNFLstats.com

  Magnus, J. R., and F. J. G. M. Klaassen. “On the Advantage of Serving First in a Tennis Set: Four Years at Wimbledon.” The Statistician (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. D) 48 (1999): 247–56.

  WHAT ISN’T IN THE MITCHELL REPORT?

  Marcano, Arturo J., and David P. Fidler. “The Globalization of Baseball: Major League Baseball and the Mistreatment of Latin American Baseball Talent.” Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies 6, no. 2 (1999): 511.

  Simpson, Tyler M. “Balking at Responsibility: Baseball’s Performance-Enhancing Drug Problem in Latin America.” Law and Business Review of the Americas 14 (2008): 369.

  Spagnuolo, Diana L. “Swinging for the Fence: A Call for Institutional Reform as Dominican Boys Risk Their Futures for a Chance in Major League Baseball.” University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Economic Law 24 (2003): 263.

  DO ATHLETES REALLY MELT WHEN ICED?

  Berry, S., and C. Wood. “The Cold-Foot Effect.” Chance 17, no. 4 (2004): 47–51.

  THE MYTH OF THE HOT HAND

  Adams, R. M. “The ‘Hot Hand’ Revisited: Successful Basketball Shooting as a Function of Intershot Interval.” Perceptual and Motor Skills 74 (1992): 934.

  _______. “Momentum in the Performance of Professional Tournament Pocket Billiards Players.” International Journal of Sport Psychology 26 (1995): 580–87.

  Albert, J. “A Statistical Analysis of Hitting Streaks in Baseball.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 (1993): 1184–88.

  Albert, Jim, and Jay Bennett. Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game. New York: Copernicus, 2001.

  Albert, J., and P. Williamson. “Rejoinder.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 (1993): 1194–96.

  ________. “Using Model/Data Simulations to Detect Streakiness.” The American Statistician 55 (2001): 41–50.

  Albright, S. C. “A Statistical Analysis of Hitting Streaks in Baseball.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 (1993): 1175–83.

  Ayton, P., and I. Fischer. “The Hot Hand Fallacy and the Gambler’s Fallacy: Two Faces of Subjective Randomness?” Memory and Cognition 32 (2004): 1369–78.

  Bar-Eli, Michael, Simcha Avugos, and Markus Raab. “Twenty Years of ‘Hot Hand’ Research: Review and Critique.” Psychology of Sport and Exercise 7 (2006): 525–53.

  Brown, W. O., and R. D. Sauer. “Does the Basketball Market Believe in the ‘Hot Hand’?” The American Economic Review 83 (1993): 1377–86.

  ________. “Fundamentals or Noise? Evidence from the Professional Basketball Betting Market.” Journal of Finance 48 (1993): 1193–1209.

  Burns, B. D., and B. Corpus. “Randomness and Inductions from Streaks: ‘Gambler’s Fallacy’ Versus ‘Hot Hand.’ ” Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 11 (2004): 179–84.

  Camerer, C. F. “Does the Basketball Market Believe in the ‘Hot Hand’?” The American Economic Review 79 (1989): 1257–61.

  Carhart, Mark M. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” Journal of Finance 52, no. 1 (Mar. 1997).

  Clark, R. D. “An Analysis of Streaky Performance on the LPGA Tour.” Perceptual and Motor Skills 97 (2003): 365–70.

  ________. “Examination of Hole-to-Hole Streakiness on the PGA Tour.” Perceptual and Motor Skills 100 (2005): 806–14.

  _________. “Streakiness Among Professional Golfers: Fact or Fiction?” International Journal of Sport Psychology 34 (2003): 63–79.

  Croucher, J. S. “An Analysis of the First 100 Years of Wimbledon Tennis Finals.” Teaching Statistics 3 (1981): 72–75.

  Dorsey-Palmateer, R., and G. Smith. “Bowlers’ Hot Hands.” The American Statistician 58 (2004): 38–45.

  Forthofer, R. “Streak Shooter: The Sequel.” Chance 4 (1991): 46–48.

  Frame, D., E. Hughson, and J. C. Leach. “Runs, Regimes, and Rationality: The Hot Hand Strikes Back.” Working paper, 2003.

  Frohlich, C. “Baseball: Pitching No-Hitters.” Chance 7 (1994): 24–30.

  Gandar, John, Richard Zuber, Thomas O’Brien, and Ben Russo. “Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market.” Journal of Finance 43 (1988): 995–1008.

  Gilovich, T. “Judgmental Biases in the World of Sports.” In W. F. Straub and J. M. Williams (eds.), Cognitive Sport Psychology. Lansing, New York: Sport Science Associates, 1984.

  _______. Transcript from Tom Gilovich hot hand homepage online chat, 2002. http://www.hs.ttu.edu/hdfs3390/hh_gilovich.htm

  Gilovich, T., R. Vallone, and A. Tversky. “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences.” Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314.

  Golec, J., and M. Tamarkin. “The Degree of Inefficiency in the Football Betting Markets.” Journal of Financial Economics 30 (1991): 311–23.

  Gould, S. J. “The Streak of Streaks.” Chance 2 (1989): 10–16.

  Gula, B., and M. Raab. “Hot Hand Belief and Hot Hand Behavior: A Comment on Koehler and Conley.” Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology 26 (2004): 167–70.

  Hendricks, D., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. “Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974–1988.” The Journal of Finance 48 (1993): 93–130.

  Jackson, D., and K. Mosurski. “Heavy Defeats in Tennis: Psychological Momentum or Random Effect?” Chance 10 (1997): 27–34.

  Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

  Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80 (1973): 237–51.

  Klaassen, F. J. G. M., and J. R. Magnus. “Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed?: Evidence from a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 (2001): 500–509.

  Koehler, J. J., and C. A. Conley. “The ‘Hot Hand’ Myth in Professional Basketball.” Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology 25 (2003): 253–59.

  Krueger, Samuel. “Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance: Analysis of Holdings Returns.” Working paper, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, 2009.

 
Miyoshi, H. “Is the ‘Hot Hands’ Phenomenon a Misperception of Random Events?” Japanese Psychological Research 42 (2000): 128–33.

  Raab, M. “Hot Hand in Sports: The Belief in Hot Hand of Spectators in Volleyball.” In M. Koskolou, N. Geladas, and V. Klissouras (eds.), ECSS proceedings, vol. 2. Seventh Congress of the European Congress of Sport Sciences. Athens: Trepoleos, 2002, p. 971.

  Sauer, Raymond D., Vic Brajer, Stephen P. Ferris, and M. Wayne Marr. “Hold Your Bets: Another Look at the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for NFL Games.” Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 206–13.

  Stern, H. S., and C. N. Morris. “A Statistical Analysis of Hitting Streaks in Baseball.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 (1993): 1189–94.

  Tversky, A., and T. Gilovich. “The Cold Facts About the ‘Hot Hand’ in Basketball.” Chance 2 (1989): 16–21.

  ________. “The ‘Hot Hand’: Statistical Reality or Cognitive Illusion?” Chance 2 (1989): 31–34.

  Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.” Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 207–32.

  ______. “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971): 105–10.

  ________. “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/185/4157/1124

  Vergin, R. C. “Winning Streaks in Sports and the Misperception of Momentum.” Journal of Sport Behavior 23 (2000): 181–97.

  Vergin, Roger C., and Michael Scriabin. “Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games.” Management Science 24 (1978): 809–18.

  Wardrop, R. L. “Simpson’s Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball.” The American Statistician 49 (1995): 24–28.