by Adam Tooze
15. J. Ewing and N. Kulish, “A Setback for the Euro Zone,” New York Times, September 9, 2011.
16. S. Fidler, “EFSF Leverage: A Rundown,” Wall Street Journal, September 27, 2011.
17. IMF, Global Financial Stability Report (Washington, DC: IMF, 2009).
18. C. Lagarde, “‘Global Risks Are Rising, But There Is a Path to Recover,’” August 27, 2011, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp082711.
19. IIF, The Cumulative Impact on the Global Economy of Changes in the Financial Regulatory Framework (September 2011).
20. B. Masters and T. Braithwaite, “Tighter Rules on Capital: Bankers Versus Basel,” Financial Times, October 2, 2011.
21. “Federal Reserve Aid to the Eurozone: Its Impact on the US and the Dollar,” https://archive.org/stream/gov.gpo.fdsys.CHRG-112hhrg75083/CHRG-112hhrg75083_djvu.txt.
22. Bespoke Investment Group, “A Look at Bank and Broker Credit Default Swap Prices,” seekingalpha.com, February 15, 2017.
23. Geithner, Stress Test, 474.
24. M. Krupa and J. Riedl, “Ach, die Maria!,” Die Zeit, June 21, 2012.
25. Geithner, Stress Test, 473.
26. “EFSF Leverage Explained,” October 28, 2011, https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/10/efsf-leverage-explained/.
27. J. Chaffin, A. Barker and K. Hope, “Geithner Warns EU of ‘Catastrophic Risk,’” Financial Times, September 17, 2011.
28. S. Castle, L. Story, “Advice on Debt? Europe Suggests US Can Keep It,” New York Times, September 16, 2011.
29. C. Giles, “Financial Institutions Stare into the Abyss,” Financial Times, September 22, 2011.
30. L. Summers, “The World Must Insist That Europe Act,” Financial Times, September 18, 2011.
31. H. Stewart, “Eurozone Ministers Under Pressure as Debt Crisis Dominates IMF Summit,” Financial Times, September 24, 2011.
32. “IMF Survey: Lagarde Urges Collective Action to Restore Confidence,” September 15, 2011, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/NEW091511A.htm.
33. N. Whitbeck, “Dexia—Rise and Fall of a Banking Giant,” Les Etudes Du Club no. 100, 2013.
34. Acharya and Steffen, “The Banking Crisis as a Giant Carry Trade Gone Wrong.”
35. M. Sparkes and A. Wilson, “Debt Crisis: As It Happened,” Telegraph, October 5, 2011.
36. A. Lucchetti, “MF Global Told to Boost Capital,” Wall Street Journal, October 17, 2011; and Cause of Action, “The Collapse of MF Global: Summary & Analysis,” https://causeofaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/MF-Global-Summary-and-Analysis1.pdf.
37. “Regierungserklärung,” October 26, 2011, https://www.bundesregierung.de/ContentArchiv/DE/Archiv17/Regierungserklaerung/2011/2011-10-27-merkel-eu-gipfel.html.
38. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 332; the remarkable blow-by-blow blog “Debt Crisis as It Happened,” Telegraph, October 26, 2011; and Papaconstantinou, Game Over, chapter 19.
39. R. Donadio and N. Kitsantoni, “Thousands in Greece Protest Austerity Bill,” New York Times, October 19, 2011.
40. A. Visvizi, “The Crisis in Greece, Democracy, and the EU,” December 10, 2012, https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/ethics_online/0076/:pf_printable.
41. For the narrative of the Cannes meeting see P. Spiegel, How the Euro Was Saved (London: Financial Times, 2014).
42. “Lucas Papademos: A Man Who Tried to Rescue Greece,” BBC News, May 25, 2017.
43. Blustein, Laid Low, 271–276.
44. P. Spiegel, “Draghi’s ECB Management: The Leaked Geithner Files,” Financial Times, November 11, 2014.
45. Geithner, Stress Test, 476.
46. For an account stressing the death of Berlusconi’s premiership from natural causes and the legitimacy of Napolitano’s role see A. Benvenuti, “Between Myth and Reality: The Euro Crisis and the Downfall of Silvio Berlusconi,” Journal of Modern Italian Studies 22.4 (2017), 512–529.
47. M. Walker, C. Forelle and S. Meichtry, “Deepening Crisis over Euro Pits Leader Against Leader,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2011; and “Kissinger: ‘I Tell You What Napolitano Did in 2011 and 2014,’” November 26, 2015, http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/cronache/kissinger-vi-dico-cosa-ha-fatto-napolitano-2011-e-2014-1198786.html [inactive].
48. Friedman, Berlusconi, 207–237.
49. “Profile: Mario Monti,” BBC News, February 18, 2013.
50. G. Pastorella, Technocratic Governments: Power, Expertise and Crisis Politics in European Democracies (Ph.D. thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2016).
51. S. Foley, “What Price the New Democracy?,” Independent, November 18, 2011.
52. Interview with Hans Knundani, September 2017.
53. P. Spiegel, “It Was the Point Where the Eurozone Could Have Exploded,” Financial Times, May 11, 2014.
54. E. Kuehnen and A. Breidthardt, “ECB Should Stay Out of EFSF Leveraging: Buba Chief,” Reuters, September 17, 2011.
55. Spiegel, “It Was the Point Where the Eurozone Could Have Exploded.”
56. “Klare Umfragemehrheit für Rot-Grün,” Die Zeit, December 16, 2011.
57. P. Spiegel, “If the Euro Falls, Europe Falls,” Financial Times, May 15, 2014.
58. T. Durden, “Presenting Deutsche Bank’s Pitchbook to the ECB to Go ‘All In,’” Zero Hedge (blog), November 15, 2011.
59. Spiegel staff, “Germany’s Central Bank Against the World,” Spiegel Online, November 15, 2011.
60. “Germany Suffers ‘Disaster’ at Bond Auction,” Telegraph, November 23, 2011.
61. R. Sikorski, “Poland and the Future of the European Union,” November 28, 2011, http://www.mfa.gov.pl/resource/33ce6061-ec12-4da1-a145-01e2995c6302:JCR.
62. Bastasin, Saving Europe (2nd ed.), Kindle location 6847–7544.
63. C. Giles and G. Parker, “Osborne Urges Eurozone to ‘Get a Grip,’” Financial Times, July 20, 2011; and A. Woodcock and D. Higgens, “Eurozone Crisis: David Cameron Calls for Action,” Independent, December 2, 2011.
64. I. Traynor et al., “David Cameron Blocks EU Treaty with Veto, Casting Britain Adrift in Europe,” Guardian, December 9, 2011.
65. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 342–351.
66. Rapport Annuel de la Banque de France (Paris, 2011), 37, 92.
67. J. Daley, “Eurozone Crisis: The US Has to Ride to the Rescue Once Again,” Telegraph, December 3, 2011.
68. Spiegel, “If the Euro Falls, Europe Falls.”
69. “FT Person of the Year: Mario Draghi,” Financial Times, December 13, 2012; and A. Verdun, “Political Leadership of the European Central Bank,” Journal of European Integration 39, no. 2 (2017), 207–221.
70. L. Barber and R. Atkins, FT interview transcript: Mario Draghi, Financial Times, December 18, 2011.
71. ECB, “Introductory Statement by Mario Draghi,” December 1, 2011, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2011/html/sp111201.en.html.
72. B. Blackstone, M. Karnitschnig and R. Thomson, “Europe’s Banker Talks Tough,” Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2012; for more extended comments by Draghi on unemployment, see M. Draghi, “Unemployment in the Euro Area,” https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2014/2014Draghi.pdf.
73. For this and the following see Barber and Atkins, FT interview transcript: Mario Draghi.
74. Bastasin, Saving Europe, 343–345.
75. E. Kuehnen, “ECB Wall of Cash Averts Credit Crunch,” Reuters, February 27, 2012, https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-m3/ecb-wall-of-cash-averts-credit-crunch-idUSTRE81Q0XP20120227.
76. J. Cotterill, “Keep On Carrying On LTROs,” Financial Times, October 7, 2011; and “ECB Announces Details of Refinancing Operations from October 2011,” http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr111006_4.en.html.
77. R. Atkins and T. Alloway, “ECB Launches New Support for Banks,” Financial
Times, December 8, 2011.
78. Barber and Atkins, FT interview transcript: Mario Draghi.
79. P. Jenkins, M. Watkins, and R. Sanderson, “Draghi’s Cash Tonic Makes Bank Smile,” Financial Times, March 1, 2012.
80. J. Plender, “Beware Sovereign Stress If ECB Backdoor Bet Backfires,” Financial Times, February 28, 2012.
81. G. Wiesmann, P. Spiegel and R. Wigglesworth, “S&P Downgrades France and Austria,” Financial Times, January 14, 2012.
82. “Merkel: World Needs a Decade to Recover from the Crisis,” November 7, 2011, https://www.newsmax.com/t/finance/article/417090.
CHAPTER 18: WHATEVER IT TAKES
1. K. Hughes and L. Rojas, “G20 Pushes for Extra Steps from Europe on Crisis,” January 21, 2012, http://www.livemint.com/Politics/JVBm6ECtqt9oBlHCDcRZ2L/G20-pushes-for-extra-steps-from-Europe-on-crisis.html.
2. “IMF Note on Global Economic Prospects and Policy Changes,” February 25, 2012, https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/022512.htm.
3. S. Böll et al., “European Politicians in Denial as Greece Unravels,” Spiegel Online, January 30, 2012.
4. P. Spiegel, “Inside Europe’s Plan Z,” Financial Times, May 14, 2014.
5. B. McLannahan and K. Hille, “China and Japan Unite on IMF Resources,” Financial Times, February 19, 2012.
6. S. Foxman, “European Firewall Capacity Raised to €800 Billion,” Business Insider, March 30, 2012, http://www.businessinsider.com/european-firewall-capacity-raised-to-800-billion-2012-3.
7. For an excellent dissection of the Greek negotiations in early 2012, see K. H. Roth, Greece: What Is to Be Done? (Winchester: Zero Books, 2013).
8. G. Wiesmann and Q. Peel, “Berlin Split on Bail-out for Greece,” Financial Times, February 16, 2012.
9. The following is based on J. Zettelmeyer, C. Trebesch and M. Gulati, “The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy,” Economic Policy 28, no. 75 (2013), 513–563.
10. Y. Mouzakis, “Where Did All the Money Go?,” Macropolis, January 5, 2015, http://www.macropolis.gr/?i=portal.en.the-agora.2080.
11. For the following, J. Schumacher and B. Weder di Mauro, “Diagnosing Greek Debt Sustainability: Why Is It So Hard?,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2015).
12. CADTM, “Evolution of the Greek Public Debt During 2010–2015,” http://www.cadtm.org/Evolution-of-the-Greek-public-debt.
13. FRED, “Current Price Gross Domestic Product in Greece,” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCGDPNADSMEI.
14. Spiegel, “Inside Europe’s Plan Z.”
15. E. Dinas and L. Rori, “The 2012 Greek Parliamentary Elections: Fear and Loathing in the Polls,” West European Politics 36, no. 1 (2013), 270–282.
16. P. Spiegel, “Greeks Urged to Run Poll as Vote on Euro,” Financial Times, May 17, 2012.
17. B. Clift, “Le Changement? French Socialism, the 2012 Presidential Election and the Politics of Economic Credibility Amidst the Eurozone Crisis,” Parliamentary Affairs 66, no. 1 (2013), 106–123; and N. Hewlett, “Voting in the Shadow of the Crisis: The French Presidential and Parliamentary Elections of 2012,” Modern & Contemporary France 20, no. 4 (2012), 403–420.
18. F. Hollande, Le Changement C’est Maintenant (Paris: Libération, 2012).
19. S. Erlanger, “Socialists’ Victory in France Buttresses Hollande’s Power,” New York Times, June 17, 2012.
20. C. Ban, “Austerity Versus Stimulus? Understanding Fiscal Policy Change at the International Monetary Fund Since the Great Recession,” Governance 28, no. 2 (2015), 167–183.
21. D. Leigh and O. J. Blanchard, “Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers” (IMF Working Paper 13/1, Washington, DC, 2013).
22. C. Luther, “Mit Hollande wird es Merkel nicht leicht haben,” Die Zeit, May 16, 2012.
23. S. Bajohr, “Die nordrhein-westfälische Landtagswahl vom 13. Mai 2012: Von der Minderheit zur Mehrheit,” Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen (2012), 543–563.
24. “Landtag beschließt Neuwahlen in NRW,” Die Zeit, March 14, 2012.
25. “Ein Sommer ohne Sonne,” http://cicero.de/innenpolitik/ein-sommer-ohne-sonne/51299.
26. Economic Research St. Louis Fed, “Spain: Unemployment and the Crisis,” https://research.stlouisfed.org/dashboard/770.
27. A. Cárdenas, “The Spanish Savings Bank Crisis: History, Causes and Responses” (IN3 Working Paper Series, 2013); Santos, “Antes del Diluvio” (2017) and above all the indispensable account in T. Santos, “El Diluvio: The Spanish Banking Crisis, 2008–2012,” manuscript (2017), Columbia Business School, Columbia University.
28. F. Ortiz, “Newsmaker Rajoy Leans on Abrasive Economist in Spanish Crisis,” CNBC, October 25, 2012, https://www.cnbc.com/id/100046357.
29. V. Mallet and M. Johnson, “The Bank That Broke Spain,” Financial Times, June 21, 2012.
30. IMF, “Global Economic Prospects and Policy Changes,” February 25–26, 2012, https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/022512.pdf.
31. R. Minder, N. Kulish and P. Geitner, “Spain to Accept Rescue from Europe for Its Ailing Banks,” New York Times, June 9, 2012.
32. G. Tremlett, “Spain Issues Dramatic Messages of Impending Eurozone Doom,” Guardian, June 14, 2012.
33. J. Pisani-Ferry, “Tim Geithner and Europe’s Phone Number,” Bruegel, February 4, 2013.
34. “G20 Summit: Leaders Alarmed over Eurozone Crisis,” BBC News, June 19, 2012.
35. “Can This Man Save Europe?,” Time, February 20, 2012.
36. N. Véron, “Tectonic Shifts,” Finance & Development 51, no. 1 (March 2014).
37. Spiegel, “If the Euro Falls, Europe Falls.”
38. Dinas and Rori, “The 2012 Greek Parliamentary Elections.”
39. Michael Kaczmarek, “SPD-Troika: Fiskalpakt nicht antasten, aber ergänzen,” May 15, 2012, http://www.euractiv.de/section/wahlen-und-macht/news/spd-troika-fiskalpakt-nicht-antasten-aber-erganzen/.
40. Bastasin, Saving Europe, Kindle location 8460.
41. D. G. Smith, “Merkel’s Hard Line ‘Could Kill the Euro,’” Spiegel Online, June 28, 2012.
42. J. A. Emmanouilidis, “The Prospects of Ambitious Muddling Through,” July 2, 2012, http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_2765_post-summit_analysis_-_2_july_2012.pdf.
43. Spiegel staff, “German Dominance in Doubt After Summit Defeat,” Spiegel Online, July 2, 2012.
44. C. Volkery, “Monti’s Uprising,” Spiegel Online, June 29, 2012.
45. “Spanish Bank Borrowings from ECB Continue Parabolic Rise,” August 14, 2012, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanish-bank-borrowings-ecb-continue-parabolic-rise.
46. S. P. Chan and R. Cooper, “Debt Crisis: As It Happened,” Telegraph, July 24, 2012.
47. A. Monaghan, “Sir Mervyn King Admits Policymakers Made ‘Major Mistakes’ in Financial Crisis,” Telegraph, July 27, 2012.
48. Confiding to a friend, Draghi used a more colorful Italian expression. See Bastasin, Saving Europe, Kindle location 8731. The hostility and incomprehension displayed by the Anglophone commentariat toward the euro project was also raised by Jörg Asmussen a few weeks before Draghi’s appearance in London. See J. Asmussen, “Building Trust in a World of Unknown Unknowns—Central Bank Communication Between Markets and Politics in the Crisis,” speech at the European Communication Summit 2012, Brussels, July 6, 2012.
49. ECB, “Verbatim of the Remarks Made by Mario Draghi,” July 26, 2012, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html.
50. For this and the following see P. Carrel, N. Barkin and A. Breidthardt, “Special Report: Inside Mario Draghi’s Euro Rescue Plan,” Reuters, September 25, 2012.
51. “No Time to Lose,” Spiegel Online, July 30, 2012.
52. ‘Schäuble Unmoved by Geithner’s Pleas,” Deutsche Welle, July 31, 2012; and G. Heller, “Geithner, Schaeuble Discuss Euro on Windy German Island,” Reu
ters, July 30, 2012.
53. Geithner, Stress Test, 483.
54. “Draghi’s ECB Management: The Leaked Geithner Files.”
55. Geithner, Stress Test, 483.
56. P. Carrel, N. Barkin and A. Breidthardt, “Special Report: Inside Mario Draghi’s Euro Rescue Plan,” Reuters, September 25, 2012.
57. Gammelin and Löw, Europas Strippenzieher, 96–97.
58. Gammelin and Löw, Europas V. Pop, “China Urges Germany and France to Solve Euro-Crisis,” August 30, 2012, https://euobserver.com/china/117376.
59. D. Lombardi, “The European Central Bank’s Bond Buying Program,” September 25, 2012, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-european-central-banks-bond-buying-program-is-berlin-the-greatest-beneficiary/amp/.
60. Bastasin, Saving Europe, Kindle locations 8910–8912.
61. ECB, “Technical Features of Outright Monetary Transactions,” September 6, 2012, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html.
62. FOMC press conference, September 13, 2012, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20120913.htm.
63. Bernanke, Courage to Act, 532.
64. A. Hall, “EU Summit: How Germany Reacted to Merkel’s ‘Defeat,’” Telegraph, June 30, 2012.
65. E. Helleiner, The Status Quo Crisis: Global Financial Governance After the 2008 Meltdown (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).
66. D. W. Drezner, The System Worked: How the World Stopped Another Great Depression (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).
67. The initiator was T. J. Sargent’s Nobel Prize lecture of December 2011. T. J. Sargent, “Nobel Lecture: United States Then, Europe Now,” Journal of Political Economy 120, no. 1 (2012), 1–40. See also H. James and H.-W. Sinn, “Mutualisation and Constitutionalisation,” Vox EU, February 26, 2013.
68. “Obama: US ‘The One Indispensable Nation in World Affairs,’” May 23, 2012, http://www.voanews.com/a/obama_tells_air_force_academy_us_is_one_indispensable_country_world_affairs/940158.html.
69. S. G. Brooks, G. J. Ikenberry and W. C. Wohlforth, “Don’t Come Home, America: The Case Against Retrenchment,” Quarterly Journal: International Security 37, no. 3 (Winter 2012–2013), 7–51; and S. M. Walt, “More or Less,” http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/02/more-or-less-the-debate-on-u-s-grand-strategy/.