Crashed
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13. A. Stent, The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014).
14. A. Clark, “Dmitry Medvedev Picks Silicon Valley’s Brains,” Guardian, June 23, 2010.
15. T. Kaplan, “Russia Blocks Yogurt Bound for US Athletes,” New York Times, February 5, 2014.
16. R. Korteweg, “Mogherini’s Mission: Four Steps to Make EU Foreign Policy More Strategic,” Centre for European Reform, January 19, 2015.
17. Spiegel staff, “How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine: Four Thousand Deaths and an Eastern Ukraine Gripped by War,” Der Spiegel, November 24, 2014.
18. A. Åslund, “Ukraine’s Choice: European Association Agreement or Eurasian Union?,” Policy Brief (2013), 13–26.
19. R. Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands (New York: I. B. Tauris, 2015), 76
20. Ibid.
21. R. Youngs, Europe’s Eastern Crisis: The Geopolitics of Asymmetry (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017), 54.
22. “How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine”; and “The Eu-Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area: What’s It All About?,” http://eeas.europa.eu/archives/delegations/ukraine/documents/virtual_library/vademecum_en.pdf.
23. Åslund, “Ukraine’s Choice.”
24. “‘We Want to See the Euro Zone Flourish,’” Der Spiegel, May 16, 2012; and K. Gebert and U. Guerot, “Why Poland Is the New France for Germany,” European Council on Foreign Relations, October 19, 2012.
25. K. Gebert, “Reinventing Europe: Poland and the Euro Crisis,” European Council on Foreign Relations, February 7, 2012.
26. Kudrna and Gabor, “The Return of Political Risk.”
27. S. Lambert, “The Orban Government and Public Debt,” The Orange Files: Notes on Illiberal Democracy in Hungary, https://theorangefiles.hu/the-orban-government-and-public-debt/.
28. “Hungary’s Orban Wants Deal with IMF, Cbank Cuts Rates,” Reuters, April 26, 2010.
29. J. Johnson and A. Barnes, “Financial Nationalism and Its International Enablers: The Hungarian Experience,” Review of International Political Economy 22 (2014): 535–569.
30. A. Deak, “The Putin-Orban Nuclear Deal: A Short Assessment,” Green Political Foundation, January 27, 2014.
31. O. Sushko, “A Fork in the Road? Ukraine Between EU Association and the Eurasian Customs Union,” PONARS Eurasia, September 2013.
32. “How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine.”
33. A. Wilson, Ukraine Crisis: What It Means for the West (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2014).
34. B. Steil, “Taper Trouble,” Foreign Affairs (July/August 2014).
35. Wilson, Ukraine Crisis, 16.
36. I. Traynor and O. Grytsenko, “Ukraine Aligns with Moscow as EU Summit Fails,” Guardian, November 28, 2013.
37. E. Piper, “Special Report: Why Ukraine Spurned the Eu and Embraced Russia,” Reuters, December 19, 2013.
38. “How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine.”
39. “Press Release: Statement by IMF Mission to Ukraine” (IMF press release no. 13/419, October 31, 2013), https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr13419.
40. Wilson, Ukraine Crisis, 64–65.
41. Piper, “Special Report: Why Ukraine Spurned the Eu and Embraced Russia.”
42. D. M. Herszenhorn, “Ukraine Blames IMF for Halt to Agreements with Europe,” New York Times, November 22, 2013; and A. Evans-Pritchard, “Historic Defeat for EU as Ukraine Returns to Kremlin Control,” Telegraph, November 22, 2013.
43. “Merkel Still Open to Ukraine Cooperation,” Der Spiegel, November 28, 2013.
44. “Poll: Ukrainian Public Split over EU, Customs Union Options,” Kyiv Post, November 26, 2013.
45. “Ukraine Crisis: Transcript of Leaked Nuland-Pyatt Call,” BBC, February 7, 2014.
46. A. Higgins and A. E. Kramer, “Ukraine Leader Was Defeated Even Before He Was Ousted,” New York Times, January 3, 2015.
47. Plans were first drawn up after the war in Georgia in 2008: Wilson, Ukraine Crisis, 108.
48. D. Chollet, The Long Game: How Obama Defied Washington and Redefined America’s Role in the World (New York: Hachette, 2016).
49. K. Rogov, “What Will Be the Consequences of the Russian Currency Crisis?,” European Council on Foreign Relations, December 23, 2014.
50. A. Evans-Pritchard, “US Hits Russia’s Oil Kingpin Igor Sechin with First Energy Sanctions,” Telegraph, April 28, 2014.
51. Wilson, Ukraine Crisis, 202.
52. M. Feldenkirchen, C. Hoffmann and R. Pfister, “Will It Be America or Russia?,” Der Spiegel, July 10, 2014.
53. 13-26, “Deutsche trauen den USA nicht mehr,” July 18, 2014, https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-116.html.
54. I. Traynor et al., “Ukraine Crisis: US-Europe Rifts Surfacing as Putin Tightens Crimea Grip,” Guardian, March 4, 2014.
55. A. Yukhananov, “Ukraine Could Borrow More If IMF Reforms Passed—US,” Reuters, March 4, 2014.
56. Y. Kwon, “The IMF, Ukraine, and the Asian Financial Crisis Hangover,” Diplomat, March 17, 2014.
57. S. Schadler, “Ukraine: Stress at the IMF,” CIGI policy brief no. 49, October 2014.
58. D. Tolksdorf, “The European Union to Ukraine’s Rescue,” Politique Etrangere 3 (2014): 109–119; and S. Erlanger and D. M. Herszenhorn, “IMF Prepares $18 Billion in Loans for Ukraine,” New York Times, March 27, 2014.
59. A. Yukhananov, “IMF Approves $17 Billion Bailout for Ukraine amid Big Risks,” Reuters, April 30, 2014.
60. “IMF Survey: Ukraine Unveils Reform Program with IMF Support,” IMF, April 30, 2014.
61. P. Shishkin, “US Sanctions over Ukraine Hit Two Russian Banks Hardest,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2015.
62. OSW Report, “The Economic and Financial Crisis in Russia—Background, Symptoms and Prospects for the Future,” Centre for Eastern Studies, June 2, 2015.
63. N. Buckley and M. Arnold, “Herman Gref, Sberbank’s Modernising Sanctions Survivor,” Financial Times, January 31, 2016.
64. K. Rogov, “Can Putinomics Survive?” ECFR policy memo, June 5, 2015.
65. Dmitry Zhdannikov and Alex Lawler, “Saudi Oil Policy Uncertainty Unleashes the Conspiracy Theorists,” November 18, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/opec/refile-saudi-oil-policy-uncertainty-unleashes-the-conspiracy-theorists-idUSL6N0T73VG20141118.
66. M. Mazzetti, E. Schmitt and D. D. Kirkpatrick, “Saudi Oil Is Seen as Lever to Pry Russian Support from Syria’s Assad,” New York Times, February 3, 2015.
67. Rogov, “Can Putinomics Survive?”
68. Courtney Weaver and Jack Farchy, “Russian Economy: An Asset to the State,” Financial Times, June 15, 2015.
69. A. Mercouris, “Sberbank CEO Confirms Russia Came Under Financial Attack in December—Was US Involved?,” Russia Insider, May 29, 2015.
70. Buckley and Arnold, “Herman Gref, Sberbank’s Modernising Sanctions Survivor.”
71. OSW Report, “The Economic and Financial Crisis in Russia—Background, Symptoms and Prospects for the Future.”
72. A. E. Kramer, “S&P Cuts Russian Debt One Notch to Junk Level,” New York Times, January 26, 2015.
73. Rogov, “Can Putinomics Survive?”
74. On the continuities between 2008 and the domestic “war coalition” of 2014, see K. Gaaze, “The Accidental Formation of Russia’s War Coalition,” Carnegie Moscow Center, June 22, 2017, http://carnegie.ru/commentary/71340.
75. M. Birnbaum, “Putin’s Approval Ratings Hit 89 Percent, the Highest They’ve Ever Been,” Washington Post, June 24, 2015.
76. A. Stepanyan, A. Roitman, G. Minasyan, D. Ostojic and N. Epstein, “The Spillover Effects of Russia’s Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries,” IMF, 2015.
77.
M. Dabrowski, “Currency Crises in Post-Soviet Economies—A Never Ending Story?,” Russian Journal of Economics 2 (2016), 302–326; and M. Dabrowski, “It’s Not Just Russia: Currency Crises in the Commonwealth of Independent States,” Bruegel, February 2015.
78. “Contagion,” Economist, January 15, 2015.
79. D. Trilling, “Remittances to Central Asia Fall Sharply, as Expected,” Eurasia Net, April 21, 2015.
80. S. Schadler, “Ukraine and the IMF’s Evolving Debt Crisis Narrative,” CIGI policy brief no. 68, November 2015.
81. R. Olearchyk, “War-Torn Ukraine’s Currency Collapses,” Financial Times, February 5, 2015; and L. Kinstler, “Ukraine Is Heading for a Total Economic Collapse,” Quartz, February 12, 2015.
82. “Tinkering Around the Edges,” Economist, August 29, 2015.
83. A. Gabuev, “A ‘Soft Alliance’? Russia-China Relations After the Ukraine Crisis,” ECFR policy brief, 2015.
84. I. Koch-Weser and C. Murray, “The China-Russia Gas Deal: Background and Implications for the Broader Relationship,” US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Staff Research Backgrounder, June 9, 2014.
85. “America’s Seven-Decade History as Asia’s Indispensable Power,” Economist, April 20, 2017.
86. M. Sieff, “Why Is the US Failing to Honor Russia’s Victory Day Anniversary?,” Nation, May 7, 2015.
CHAPTER 22: #THISISACOUP
1. “Russia’s Friends in Black,” Economist, April 19, 2014; and B.-H. Lévy and G. Soros, “Save the New Ukraine,” New York Times, January 27, 2015.
2. N. Véron, “Tectonic Shifts,” IMF, Finance & Development, March 2014; and A. Posen and N. Véron, “Europe’s Half a Banking Union,” Bruegel, Europe’s World 15, September 2014.
3. H. Thompson, “The Crisis of the Euro: The Problem of German Power Revisited,” SPERI paper 8 (2013).
4. “The Merkel Plan,” Economist, June 15, 2013.
5. “Germany’s Current Account and Global Adjustment,” General Theorist, July 6, 2017.
6. U. Jun, “Der elektorale Verlierer der Regierung Merkel II: Gründe für den Absturz der FDP,” Politik im Schatten der Krise (Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien, 2015), 113–135.
7. D. Bebnowski, Die Alternative für Deutschland: Aufstieg und gesellschaftliche Repräsentanz einer rechten populistischen Partei (Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien, 2015).
8. “Schäuble: Die Schwarze Null ist kein Selbstzweck,” FAZ, September 9, 2014.
9. “Europe’s Deflation Risk,” OECD Observer, October 2014.
10. T. Winkelmann, “Infrastrukturpolitik im Zeitalter von Austerität,” Austerität als gesellschaftliches Projekt, R. Sturm, T. Griebel and T. Winkelmann (eds.) (Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien, 2017), 155–179.
11. N. Kwasniewski, “ECB Rate Drop Shows Draghi’s Resolve,” Der Spiegel, November 8, 2013; and A. Evans-Pritchard, “Dam Breaks in Europe as Deflation Fears Wash Over ECB Rhetoric,” Telegraph, October 10, 2014.
12. “Public Opinion in the European Union,” European Commission, December 2014.
13. “Européennes 2014: Comprendre le Vote Des Français,” Ipsos, May 25, 2014.
14. J. Pavia, A. Bodoque and J. Martin, “The Birth of a New Party: Podemos, a Hurricane in the Spanish Crisis of Trust,” Open Journal of Social Sciences 4 (2016): 67–86.
15. A. Higgins, “Populists’ Rise in Europe Vote Shakes Leaders,” New York Times, May 26, 2014; C. Mudde, “Jean-Claude Juncker and the Populist Zeitgeist in European Politics,” Washington Post, December 30, 2014; and T. Barber, “European Democracy Must Keep Rightwing Populism at Bay,” Financial Times, September 16, 2014.
16. F. Wesslau, “Putin’s Friends in Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, October 19, 2016.
17. J. Goldberg, “Is It Time for the Jews to Leave Europe?,” Atlantic, April 2015.
18. Eurostat, “At-Risk-of Poverty Rate Anchored at a Fixed Moment in Time (2008), 2014 and 2015,” http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:At-risk-of_poverty_rate_anchored_at_a_fixed_moment_in_time_(2008),_2014_and_2015_(%25).png.
19. “Society at a Glance 2014 Highlights: Greece The Crisis and Its Aftermath,” OECD, March 2014.
20. H. Smith, “Young, Gifted and Greek: Generation G—the World’s Biggest Brain Drain,” Guardian, January 19, 2015.
21. V. Petsinis, “Syriza and ANEL: A Match Made in Greece,” OpenDemocracy, January 25, 2017.
22. Y. Varoufakis, Adults in the Room: My Battle with Europe’s Deep Establishment (New York: Vintage, 2017).
23. S. Kornelius, “Six Things You Didn’t Know About Angela Merkel,” Guardian, September 10, 2013.
24. “The Plan for Italy,” Economist, November 13, 2014.
25. “Yiannis Stournaras: A Brief Bio of the New Finance Chief,” Ekathimerini, June 26, 2012.
26. P. Mason, “The Inside Story of Syriza’s Struggle to Save Greece,” Nation, December 18, 2015; and Tyler Durden, “Greece Suffers Biggest Bank Run in History: January Deposits Plunge to 2005 Levels,” ZeroHedge (blog), February 26, 2015.
27. S. Nixon, “ECB’s Draghi Takes a Gamble on QE-lite,” Wall Street Journal, September 7, 2014.
28. “Opinion of Advocate General Cruz Cillalon,” January 14, 2015, http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf;jsessionid=9ea7d0f130ded7290bd15b9341dcab778007656336d9.e34KaxiLc3eQc40LaxqMbN4ObhiRe0?text=&docid=161370&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=205645.
29. “ECB Announces Expanded Asset Purchase Programme,” European Central Bank, January 22, 2015.
30. The idea in its basic outline was already spelled out in 2012. Y. Varoufakis, “An Emergency Program for Greece,” Yanis Varoufakis: Thoughts for the Post-2008 World (blog), November 5, 2012, https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/11/05/an-emergency-program-for-greece/.
31. A. Higgins, “Greece Steps Back into Line with European Union Policy on Russia Sanctions,” New York Times, January 29, 2015.
32. Varoufakis, Adults, 237.
33. A. Evans-Pritchard, “Europe’s Manhandling of Greece Is a Strategic Gift to Russia’s Vladimir Putin,” Telegraph, April 8, 2015.
34. Varoufakis, Adults, 274.
35. Ibid., 185–187.
36. Blustein, Laid Low, 384.
37. The IMF developed a particular preoccupation with Greece’s pharmacies. IMF Country Report 14/151 (June 2014).
38. M. Walker and G. Steinhauser, “Germany’s Merkel Intervenes in Greek Rift with Creditors,” Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2015.
39. “Barack Obama Signals Support for Greece’s Call to Loosen Austerity Programme,” Telegraph, February 2, 2015.
40. C. Giles et al., “IMF Knocks Greek Debt Rescheduling Hopes,” Financial Times, April 16, 2015.
41. S. Nixon, “Can US Bring an End to Greek Drama?,” Wall Street Journal, May 31, 2015; and I. Talley and G. Steinhauser, “IMF Official Sees Greek Bailout Needing Several More Weeks of Talks,” Wall Street Journal, April 17, 2015.
42. ThePressProject, “Clinton Emails Give Away Schäuble Plans in 2012—Exclusive Commentary by Varoufakis,” https://www.thepressproject.gr/article/91399/Clinton-Emails-Give-Away-Schauble-Plans-in-2012—-Exclusive-Commentary-by-Varoufakis.
43. S. Meunier, “A Tale of Two Ports: The Epic Story of Chinese Direct Investment in the Greek Port of Piraeus,” Council for European Studies, December 14, 2015.
44. Varoufakis, Adults, 321.
45. S. Jones, K. Hope and C. Weaver, “Alarm Bells Ring over Syriza’s Russian Links,” Financial Times, January 28, 2015.
46. Varoufakis, Adults, 348.
47. M. Gilbert, “Bond Markets Bet on Grexit,” Bloomberg, March 20, 2015, http://www.greekcrisis.net/2015/03/bond-markets-bet-on-grexit.html.
48. J. Cox, “Greek Government Bonds Plunge,” Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2015; and C. Giles, S. Fleming and P. Spiegel
, “Christine Lagarde Dashes Greek Hopes on Loan Respite,” Financial Times, April 16, 2015.
49. S. Fleming and C. Giles, “Draghi Says Eurozone Has Tools to Deal with Greece Crisis,” Financial Times, April 18, 2015.
50. P. Spiegel and K. Hope, “Frustrated Officials Want Greek Premier to Ditch Syriza Far Left,” Financial Times, April 5, 2015.
51. Ibid.
52. “One Economist Just Delivered a Scathing Indictment of the New Greek Government,” Bloomberg, April 1, 2015, http://www.greekcrisis.net/2015/04/one-economist-just-delivered-scathing.html.
53. T. Barber, “Don’t Bank on Tsipras Dumping Syriza’s Leftwing Diehards,” Financial Times, April 14, 2015.
54. S. Wagstyl, P. Spiegel and C. Jones, “Greek Bailout Monitors Hold Emergency Summit,” Financial Times, June 1, 2015.
55. M. Walker, “Greece’s Creditors Draft Final Offer for Bailout Aid in Bid to Break Stalemate,” Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2015.
56. Y. Palaiologos, “Running Out of Options on a Deal with Greece,” Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2015.
57. W. Munchau, “Greece Has Nothing to Lose by Saying No to Creditors,” Financial Times, June 14, 2015.
58. P. Spiegel and K. Hope, “Greece Central Ban Warns of ‘Painful’ EU Exit If No Deal Reached,” Financial Times, June 17, 2015.
59. P. Mason, “The Inside Story of Syriza’s Struggle to Save Greece,” Nation, December 18, 2015.
60. K. Hope, “Knives Out for Tsipras as Syriza Hardliners Threaten Mutiny,” Financial Times, June 23, 2015.
61. “Sorry, No Extensions,” Economist, April 16, 2015; and G. Steinhauser and M. Dalton, “Germany Signals It’s Open to a Greek Referendum on Bailout Program,” Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2015.
62. P. Spiegel, S. Wagstyl and H. Foy, “Tsipras Announces Referendum on Creditors’ Bailout Demands,” Financial Times, June 27, 2015.
63. See more at P. Mason, “Greece Referendum: Did The Euro Just Die at 4pm?” Channel4, June 28, 2015.
64. R. Christie, C. Ruhe and J. Stearns, “Euro Area Pushes Greece to Open Books as Talks Resume,” Bloomberg, March 9, 2015.
65. M. Gilbert, “Greece’s True Deadline May Be May 29,” Bloomberg, May 19, 2015.