Redemption

by Sally Fernandez

  Everyone in the room, including Seymour, was aware that the BLS was a government agency under the Department of Labor. They were tasked with churning the data to support not only the reported unemployment rate, but also the Consumer Price Index, among other indices.

  “It sounds like a euphemism for voluntarily unemployed,” Seymour quipped.

  Hank smiled in agreement, but continued to explain that BLS’ unemployment rate is extrapolated from the Current Population Survey, or CPS. “Approximately sixty thousand eligible households that equate to one hundred twenty thousand people or two wage earners per household are surveyed each month. It’s a representative cross section of our population.”

  “I recognize the survey is used to measure the extent of unemployment,” Paolo stated, “but what I don’t understand, is how the questions in the survey—based on the participants’ recent activity rather than whether they are employed—can provide accurate numbers?”

  “It’s an attempt to obtain a more honest answer,” Hank opined, and then expanded further. “A series of questions are split between demographics and labor-force items. They do ask the recipient if he or she worked for wages, performed any jobs for a family business or farm without pay, or were seeking other jobs. It’s difficult to administer, as you can imagine, because the person being surveyed is counted once, ignoring the possibility he or she holds more than one job or is self-employed and not paying themselves.”

  “Hank’s correct. And adding to the confusion,” Chase explained, “it doesn’t take into account that almost twenty percent of the total jobs reported are involuntary part-timers. That’s over thirty million workers. Another huge number with which to reckon. A major reason is the recession, which caused many employers to reduce payroll costs by limiting workers to fewer than thirty-five hours of work per week, adversely limiting their healthcare benefits, another cost-saving measure. There are also various government disincentives to working full-time, affecting both employers and job seekers.”

  “To that point,” Noble interjected, “the chairperson of the Federal Reserve Board recently noted—give me a second—here it is.” Noble read from his tablet:

  “‘The existence of such a large pool of partly unemployed workers is a sign that labor conditions are worse than indicated by the unemployment rate…Research shows employers are less willing to hire the long-term unemployed and often prefer other job candidates with less or even no relevant experience.’”

  Noble, adding his own two cents, concluded, “Conceivably, that number could grow to millions working part-time stemming from UHA, the Universal Healthcare Act, which was instrumental in redefining the work week. We’ll save that for another discussion. But the real number of eligible workers without full-time jobs is reportedly seventy-five million.”

  Over the next several hours, they continued to debate the job numbers, sometimes heatedly, challenging the various methods used to calculate the unemployment rate. In the end, they found them impossible to reconcile.

  “No wonder some numbers are open to question. It sounds as though Common Core math may be the real culprit and responsible for all the discrepancies,” Seymour joked.

  Noble moved to rein in the group. “So let’s see. The real number of unemployed full-time workers is somewhere around seventy-five million people. Then factoring out those with part-time jobs, and factoring in the marginally attached, are we looking at approximately forty-two million eligible workers that are not working, using plain old arithmetic?”

  “Given what we know, it’s in the ballpark,” Chase agreed. “What’s most disturbing is that six million of that number includes young adults between the ages of sixteen and twenty-four who have dropped out altogether; they are neither working nor going to school. Imagine dropping out at that age! I know I’m going astray, but according to the BLS, almost ninety-one million people over the age of sixteen aren’t working for a host of reasons.” He glanced at the others to see if they grasped the significance. Then, to drive the point home, he stressed, “That’s almost one-third of the population!”

  The point was noted.

  The group continued to question, debate, and recalculate the numbers into the early evening—until Seymour had reached his limit and began to flail his hands in the air. “Hey guys, my mind can only comprehend what my seat can endure. This is pretty heavy stuff and we’ve been at this all day.”

  “My seat says we pick it up in the morning,” Paolo joined in and then suggested, “A libation and dinner will help to put us back in balance.”

  “I second that, especially the libation.” Hank’s enthusiasm was obvious.

  Noble capitulated; pleased they had become so engrossed in the material. He also recognized they were driven by the desire to arrive at quick effective solutions. So it was not a surprise from day one that they opted to keep the sessions moving and waived the lunch break. They were satisfied to nosh on the snacks from the kitchen, so as not to miss a beat. Jax was quick to pick up on their daily routine and began to deliver salads and sandwiches along with the morning meal. It meant for less distraction throughout the day. Now dinner was prevalent on everyone’s mind, naturally kicking off with the welcomed aperitif. So it didn’t take much coaxing for them to adjourn to their respective suites and freshen up for the evening meals.

  19

  UNEMPLOYMENT ABYSS

  By the first week, they had established a working rhythm and were firing on all cylinders. Each day began promptly at nine o’clock in the morning with the guys orchestrating their own limited free time. Seymour and Paolo managed an hour in the fitness center before breakfast, Hank managed breakfast, and the anal-retentive Chase spent his mornings pouring through the documents in preparation for the day’s topic. Noble, after a quick breakfast, would spend time either working on the website-in-progress, or collecting any data he may have needed for their upcoming discussion. Thus far, it was working like a Swiss watch.

  After days of data gathering, Paolo had done his fair share of pulling the numbers together. Even though he held to Hank’s point about focusing more on the causes of the numbers generated, he continued to help slice and dice them in an attempt to quantify the stats. Consequently, he chose to begin the session.

  “Attenzione, amici! The dissection of the numbers thus far has helped to describe the complexity of the unemployment situation. Through a maze of smoke and mirrors, various employment rates were produced. But it’s become clear that any change in policy we propose must target the true causes of why people are not working in the first place. We must go behind the scenes to clarify the numbers we have bandied about in order to have a direct effect on the job market. Granted there are sundry reasons; identifying them is our starting point.” Shooting the next question at Hank, he asked, “So in your view, why are people dropping out of the workforce at such an alarming rate?”

  Hank, the supreme showman, was happy to accommodate Paolo and to pontificate on the question. “We’ve already discussed the influx of baby-boomer retirees. Also, people are living longer, many with chronic illnesses, and a vast number of them are being placed on disability, unable to work. Then there are a substantial number of people who can’t find a job or believe there are no jobs in their occupation. Some of the older-set are being phased out by new technology and many of the young simply lack the necessary skills for the entry-level jobs. That also explains why an unusual number of people are returning to school, which is a positive. But I would suggest the majority of the unemployed find themselves in one of two categories: unskilled or unmotivated.”

  “Isn’t that rather simplistic?” Paolo challenged. “Don’t forget many have determined that the jobs available don’t pay enough and opt to collect unemployment insurance until their benefits run out and the checks no longer flow. The House of Representatives choked again and extended unemployment insurance for another full year. For many, it extends unemployment benefits beyond two years. C’mon, sounds like an inducement to remain unemployed.” />
  “When did you become so cynical?” Hank scolded.

  “Don’t shoot the messenger. There was a Harris poll taken recently, where forty-seven percent polled stated they had completely given up looking for a job. Out of that number, eighty-two percent said they would only start looking when their benefits ran out. Did you hear that?—When their benefits ran out. Also, the combination of government subsidies that help to bolster household income has become a disincentive to many prime-working-age adults, between the ages of twenty-five and sixty-four. Many of whom have given up full-time employment or have chosen not to work at all. It’s a matter of simple logic. Why work when you can live reasonably well on the dole?”

  Chase cut in. “I have to agree with Paolo. Given the slow-growth economy, Americans have lost confidence in the government to fix the problem. Their patience has expired because they feel the government has given up on them. We stressed that earlier when we discussed the young adults.”

  Paolo persisted. “Poll after poll shows that Americans believe they are financially worse off than they were a year ago and have real concerns about their future. Even recent polls show conclusively that American believe their children will be economically worse off than they.”

  “Okay, I agree,” Hank acquiesced, raising his arms to surrender. “Admittedly, even the Congressional Budget Office has stated that the weak conditions in the labor market have caused people to leave the workforce permanently. And I’m smart enough to realize that the effect of reduced consumer buying power on Main Street will also diminish the outcomes on Wall Street.”

  Hank trusted the numbers coming from the CBO. Despite the fact that the Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency operating within the legislative branch of the government, it had an earned reputation for being objective and nonpartisan. He knew the job of the CBO was to report the economic and congressional budget numbers, for both spending and revenue, however the numbers tallied. “I broke down the figures and I saw no intended room for manipulation. The numbers tell the story.”

  “You’re right on the money,” Chase agreed. “Ignoring the double entendre, when the Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates, predictably the banks tightened further on credit lending. The negative effect on the financial markets added to a lack of business confidence, holding back capital expenditures. That’s one of the major forces leading to people leaving the workforce and a reduction in consumer spending. The housing market is once again heading south.” He shook his head, visibly dismayed. “It’s the perfect storm that could push us deeper into a recession, teetering on a depression—the one the president fears.”

  “That’s the exact reason why we’re here!” Noble punctuated. “The president is well aware that fewer people in the workforce erodes the lives of income-producing families.”

  Paolo postured, “Fewer people employed equates to less revenue in the way of tax dollars, especially the payroll taxes necessary to fund Social Security and Medicare, which run dry without new participants.”

  “It also has a direct effect on our exports and bloats our national debt further, placing additional strain on the government and the taxpayers,” Chase added. “But there is a catch-22 here.”

  That statement caught their full attention.

  “As the economy continues to lag, more and more companies will downsize. In many cases, employees will be made redundant, mainly men and women edging toward retirement age. The prospect of finding another position is bleak and many will opt to retire early, placing an even heavier burden on pension plans, including Social Security and Medicare benefits. If the trend continues in the number of people claiming disability, as Hank cited earlier, the safety net of entitlements will, for sure, become threadbare. We’ve already seen evidence of the unraveling.”

  “You paint a pretty bleak picture,” Seymour interjected. “But speaking to your point about companies downsizing, there was a prediction that more than half of the major retail outlets will close over the next five years, being no longer able to compete with online retailers. Reportedly, hundreds of thousands of people would be laid off. A devastating effect on the job market, with no alternative at hand. Imagine your favorite department store going kaput.”

  “Wasn’t it Michael Burden, a principal with Excess Space Retail Services, who predicted the closings?” Noble asked. “He called it a Retail Apocalypse.”

  “Yes, and you’ve already seen the early stages. Giants like Sears, Macy’s, and J.C. Penney have closed many of their outlets and seem to be hanging by the fingernails. And the blockbuster of them all of course, was Blockbuster. Some ascribe it to ecommerce, but others point to the frightening aspect of the shrinking middle class, which brings us full-circle to the unemployed,” Seymour observed.

  “We’ve already seen the impact on jobs by technology. Two examples are in the use of 3D manufacturing printers and in the use of robotics.” Noble cited, “In a Time Magazine article, written back in 2014, Rana Foroohar cited a study by the McKinsey Global Institute that estimated one-hundred-forty million service jobs were at risk over the next decade. Foroohar pointed to companies such as, ‘Zillow, Uber, and Airbnb as fostering creative destruction in new sectors like real estate, transportation, and hotels.’ A stark difference from the days of old. The article points to the fraction of jobs produced by the social networking sites compared to the dot-com companies in the late nineties.”

  Hank quickly inserted, “Innovative technology comes with a price, while I personally believe the positives outweigh the negatives. Granted, the impact on skilled labor needs to be factored into the equation.”

  All at the table were outwardly disturbed by the specter of the devastating effects of more people falling into the unemployment abyss and those making a Hobson’s choice to drop out of the workforce entirely.

  Seymour, reiterating Paolo’s earlier statement, affirmed, “It’s clear; either scenario is an encumbrance to an already snail-paced economy: fewer people producing, less income, less taxes being collected. It is a vicious cycle. They are inextricably bound together and move in tandem.”

  “All true, but I’m not sure this is getting us closer to a solution,” Noble determined. “But there is one policy that has had a monumental effect on the job market. Anyone want to take a guess?” It was unfair of Noble, but he was more than aware that the topic was one of Paolo’s sore spots. So he gave it a little nudge.

  “I know where you’re heading,” Paolo presumed, and then took a deep breath. “We’ve all been reluctant to mention the dreaded ‘I’ word. While we briefly touched on the increase in population, we also need to discuss the total broad effect immigration has on the job market.”

  “Oh please, that horse has been beaten to death,” Hank groaned. “This is a country founded on immigrants. By the way, aren’t you first-generation?”

  That question created a firestorm, so Noble and the others sat back and listened to the jousting between Paolo and Hank. Then, noting the time, Noble realized that he had introduced the wrong topic for such a late hour. “Hey, hey you two,” Noble interrupted, “You’ve just touched on a new issue that could inversely affect jobs. So without a doubt, it places a burden to some degree on government resources. Just look at our rising expenditures over the years. It’s evident we need to look at immigration a little more closely. Perhaps we’ll uncover some areas that will be useful to the president straightaway. Let’s pick up on it tomorrow.”

  Everyone happily agreed. They were indeed getting into the groove and wanted time to refresh their minds on the immigration policies and be armed with facts for the next day’s discussion.

  The meeting was adjourned.

  20

  AN INQUIRING MIND

  “Has Noble called in?”

  “Not yet, Max.”

  “Shit. He just doesn’t get it!” Max blurted as she whisked into her office.

  Doris flinched, although she was becoming accustomed to Max’s outbursts and to calling her by he
r first name. After years of being Noble’s secretary, always referring to him as director, and having rarely heard him swear—things started to change around the office as the language became more colorful. Doris had to admit: Max was growing on her.

  Max plopped down at her desk and glanced around the room as she thought, This is temporary. I shouldn’t get used to it.

  It had been over a week since Noble took his leave of absence, placing Max in charge as Director of the SIA—a position to which she aspired. But for which she wasn’t quite ready to seize the reins. So, as Noble set off for parts unknown, Max grudgingly agreed to assume the position. Stanton was right. She’d step up to the plate, but on one condition: Noble had to promise to call her weekly. His call was way past due.

  As fate would have it, the phone buzzer sounded at that moment.

  “Max, Natalie is on line one.”

  “Thanks Doris.” She had hoped for a different caller.

  “Natalie, what a pleasant surprise. How was your family vacation in Europe?”

  “Doris said you were filling in for Noble. Where is he?”

  Max was surprised by the sound of panic in her voice and was a bit worried. “He’s taking some time off. Didn’t he tell you?” she asked with wonderment.

  “I spoke with him from Florence about a week ago and he never mentioned going on a trip. Sorry to be abrupt, Max, but I need to speak with him now,” she pleaded.