5. “Michel Kilo Detained,” Syria Monitor, May 15, 2006, http://syriamonitor.typepad.com/news/2006/05/michel_kilo_det.html.
6. NO VOICE LOUDER THAN THE CRY OF BATTLE
Portions of this chapter originally appeared in the Institute of Current World Affairs member newsletter.
1. “Mic Picks Up Bush: ‘Get Hezbollah to Stop This S***,”’ Times Online, July 17, 2006.
2. Helene Cooper and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria Away from Iran,” New York Times, July 23, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/washington/23diplo.html.
3. Seymour Hersh, “Watching Lebanon: Washington’s Interests in Israel’s War,” The New Yorker, August 21, 2006.
7. PLAYING WITH FIRE IN EASTERN SYRIA
1. George W. Bush, “President’s Address to the Nation,” White House, Washington, DC, January 10, 2009, http://georgewbushwhitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html.
2. “Iran, Forerunner in Syria Investment Among Non-Arab States,” Islamic Republic News Agency, January 24, 2007, http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-237/0701242933180528.htm.
3. For a partial account of this meeting, see Andrew Lee Butters, “Guess Who Is Coming to Dinner,” Time, February 8, 2007.
4. Andrew Tabler, “The Shiitization of Syria?,” Executive, June 2009.
5. Grand mufti of the Syrian Arab Republic Ahmed al-Hassoun, interview with the author, March 2007.
6. Andrew Tabler, “Catalytic Converters,” New York Times Magazine, April 29, 2007.
7. Barack Obama, interview on MSNBC, January 11, 2007. Viewed via YouTube, July 10, 2009.
8. Joseph R. Biden Jr., “A Plan to Hold Iraq Together,” Washington Post, August 24, 2006.
9. Elizabeth Williamson, “Pelosi Plans Trip to Syria Next Week,” Washington Post, March 31, 2007.
10. “Bush: Pelosi Meeting With Syria’s Assad Sends Wrong Signal,” Fox News, April 3, 2007.
11. Hassan Fattah, “Pelosi’s Delegation Presses Syrian Leader on Militants,” New York Times, April 4, 2007.
12. “Pratfall in Damascus,” Washington Post, April 5, 2007.
13. US diplomat, interview with the author, March 2008.
14. CNN newscast, May 3, 2007.
15. Dominic Moran, “Rice–Syrian FM Meet Eclipses Iraq Plan,” International Relations and Security Network (ISN), May 4, 2007.
16. “Syria: Writer Michel Kilo Sentenced,” PEN, May 16, 2007.
17. For another account of the polls, see Hassan Fattah, “Syrian President’s Fortunes Revive for Election,” New York Times, May 27, 2007.
18. “Dialogue with Syria: Opportunity or Ambush?,” Saban Center for Middle East Policy, transcript, page 79; Adam Zagorin, “Syria in Bush’s Cross Hairs,” Time December 19, 2006.
19. Andrew Tabler, “To Help Israel, Help Syria,” New York Times, August 5, 2006.
20. Hugh Naylor, “Tired of Energy Ills, Syrians Doubt the West Is to Blame,” New York Times, August 15, 2007.
21. Nicholas Blanford, “Why Did Israeli Planes Enter Syria?,” Time, September 10, 2007.
22. For an excellent account of statements following the raid, see “06 September 2007 Strike” on GlobalSecurity.org, last modified October 27, 2007.
23. Yoav Stern and Mazal Mualem, “Israel Mum on Any IAF Entry into Syria Airspace,” September 6, 2007, http://www.haaretz.com/.
24. Glen Kessler, “Syria–N. Korea Reports Won’t Stop Talks,” Washington Post, September 15, 2007.
25. “Extracting Uranium from Phosphates,” Arms Control Wonk (blog), September 20, 2007, http://armscontrolwonk.com/.
26. “06 September 2007 Airstrike,” GlobalSecurity.org, October 29, 2007, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/070906-airstrike.htm.
27. Ron Ben-Yishai, “Ynet Reporter Visits Site of ‘Syria Operation,’” Yedioth Ahronoth, September 26, 2007, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3453679,00.html. For another account of the visit, see Hugh Naylor, “Syria Tells Journalist Israeli Raid Did Not Occur,” New York Times, October 9, 2007.
28. American and Israeli sources later said that they didn’t push the nuclear issue immediately so that Assad would not overreact and launch a retaliatory strike on Israel.
29. General David H. Petraeus, “Report to Congress on the Situation in Iraq,” September 10–11, 2007.
30. Richard A. Oppel, “Foreign Fighters in Iraq Are Tied to Allies of U.S.,” New York Times, November 22, 2007.
8. WEATHERING THE STORM
1. Nicholas Blanford, “Hizballah Mourns Its Shadowy Hero,” Time, Feburary 13, 2008.
2. Ibrahim Hamidi, “No More Secrets,” Syria Today, March 2008.
3. Andrew Tabler, “Speculation Rages over Imad Moughniyah Assassination,” Eighth Gate (blog), February 13, 2008, http://www.andrewtabler.com/2008/02/speculation-rages-overimad-moughniyah.html.
4. “Iran Joins Syria in Hunt for Killers of Militant,” Associated Press, February 15, 2008.
5. “An Official Information Source Denies Reports on the Formation of a Joint Committee to Investigate Moghnia Assassination,” Syrian Arab News Agency, February 16, 2008.
6. Andrew Tabler, “The U.S. Can Help Tackle Syrian Corruption,” Daily Star, July 29, 2008.
7. “Syria: From Isolation to Acceptance,” roundtable presentation at the Henry L. Stimson Center, April 24, 2008.
8. “Syria’s Covert Nuclear Reactor at Al Kibar,” Central Intelligence Agency, April 24, 2008.
9. Embassy of the Syrian Arab Republic, press release, April 24, 2008.
10. Fay Ferguson, “Radioactive Allegations,” Syria Today, May 2008.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. For a summary of the dispute, see “Perhaps It Was the Genie in the Lamp?,”
14. Imad Moustapha, interview by the author and Robert Malley, February 2008.
15. Nicholas Blanford, “Spectre of War Returns to Haunt Lebanon,” The Times, May 8, 2008.
16. “Hezbollah Takes Over West Beirut,” BBC News, May 9, 2008.
17. Ibid.
18. “Israel Announces Indirect Peace Talks with Syria,” DPA, May 21, 2008.
19. “Official: Latest Israel–Syria Talks End in ‘Positive Atmosphere,’” June 16, 2008, http://www.haaretz.com/.
20. Steven Erlanger and Katrin Bennhold, “Sarkozy Helps to Bring Syria Out of Isolation,” New York Times, July 14, 2008.
21. For another account of Syrian coverage of the event, see Andrew Lee Butters, “The Syrians Take Paris,” Time, July 14, 2008.
22. “No Comment,” Euronews Television, July 14, 2008, recovered from YouTube as “Cat-and-Mouse between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Paris” on August 20, 2009, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tY5Z4OKq28o.
23. “Syria’s Assad Stirs Controversy at France’s Bastille Day,” AFP, July 14, 2008.
24. “IAEA Team to Inspect Syria’s Alleged Nuclear Site,” DPA, June 22, 2008.
25. This paragraph is a summary of Radwan Ziadeh’s chapter on Syria in Freedom of Association in the Euro-Mediterranean Region: 60 Years after the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Copenhagen: Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network, December 2008), pages 44–47.
26. Brookings Institution, “Engaging Syria: New Negotiations, Old Challenges,” July 23, 2008, http://www.brookings.edu/–/media/Files/events/2008/0723_syria/0723_syria.pdf.
27. Ibid.
28. Sami Moubayed, “Driving a Truck Through Syrian Loopholes,” Asia Times, August 6, 2008.
EPILOGUE: THE EXPECTATIONS GAP AND THE ADVENT OF THE ARAB SPRING
Portions of this chapter originally appeared in PolicyWatch (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateI05.php?&newActiveSubNav=PolicyWatch/PeaceWatch&activeSubNavLink=templateI05.php%3F&newActiveNav=analysis), an online publication of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
1. “’US Helicopter Raid’ Inside Syria,” BBC News, October 27, 2008.
2. “Syrian Witness Reacts to US
Raid,” BBC News, October 27, 2008.
3. Albert Aji, “U.S. Special Forces Launch Rare Attack Inside Syria,” Associated Press, October 26, 2008.
4. Eric Schmidt and Mark Mazzetti, “Secret Order Lets U.S. Raid Al Qaeda in Many Countries,” New York Times, November 9, 2008.
5. Sami Moubayed, “American Dream Expelled from Syria,” Asia Times, November 4, 2008.
6. Despite the fact that Moubayed published a denial on the blog Syria Comment many journalists—especially in Israel—believed Moubayed’s views reflected those of the Assad regime at that time. For a thoughtful discussion of the issue by one Israeli journalist who quoted Moubayed, see “Yoav Stern Discusses His Coverage of Syrian Affairs,” Syria Comment (blog), November 9, 2008, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=1500. For further background of Syria’s spring 2009 public relations offensive to woo Obama, see Andrew J. Tabler, “Will Mitchell’s Trip Bypass Damascus?,” April 13, 2009, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3043.
7. For a discussion of “Syrian triumphalism” and its ultimate impact on engagement with the Obama administration, see Steven Heydemann, “Why Syria Needs to Get a Grip,” Foreign Policy, April 20, 2010, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/20/why_syria_needs_to_get_a_grip.
8. For more information, see “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic,” Director General’s Report, International Atomic Energy Agency, February 18, 2010.
9. Cecile Hennion, “Dialogue de sourds entre Bachar Al-Assad et Ban Ki-moon,” Le Monde, June 28, 2007.
10. Excerpt from Andrew Tabler, “Assad Clenches His Fist,” Foreign Policy, August 28, 2009.
11. “Clinton Presses Syria to Abandon Iran, Halt Hizbullah Arms,” AFP, February 25, 2010.
12. Khaled Yacoub Oweis, “Syria and Iran Defy Clinton in Show of Unity,” Reuters, February 25, 2010.
13. Charles Levinson and Jay Solomon, “Syria Gave Scuds to Hezbollah, U.S. Says,” Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2010.
14. Jay Solomon, “Interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,” Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2011.
15. Anthony Shadid, “Reviled Tycoon, Assad’s Cousin, Resigns in Syria,” New York Times, June 16, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/world/middleeast/17syria.html.
16. Excerpted from Andrew Tabler, “Another Deeply Disappointing Speech by Bashar al-Assad,” CNN Global Public Square (blog), June 20, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/20/another-deeply-disappointing-speech-by-bashar-al-assad/.
17. The following argument is based on an edited excerpt from Andrew Tabler, “Twisting Assad’s Arm,” Foreign Policy, April 14, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/twisting_assads_arm.
18. Jay Solomon, “U.S. Considers Push for U.N. Action in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, August 6, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657504575411762167580080.html.
INDEX
Abdel-Azim, Hassan, 90–91, 108–9, 140–44, 155
Abdulhamid, Ammar, 26, 52–53, 56–57, 181, 201
Abdullah, Ali al-, 91
Abdullah, King (Saudi Arabia), 84
Abu Kamal (border town), 74–75
Abu Nidal Organization, 14
Aflaq, Michel, 134
Agence France-Presse (AFP), 192
Ahl al-Bayt tombs, 171
Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 119–20, 150, 175, 228–29
Ahmar, Abdullah al-, 107
Ain Saheb, 48
Akhras, Fawaz, 35
Akhtari, Mohammad Hassan, 168–69
al-Aqsa intifada, 221
Alawites, 5, 7, 18, 36, 60, 111, 113, 125–26, 140, 171, 178, 180–81, 219, 231, 233–34
Al Kibar, 195, 201, 209, 219–20, 232, 241
al-Qaeda, 22, 25, 164, 194, 216, 219, 226, 231
Ali, Mounir, 31, 38
AMAL (organization), 57
Amal (political movement), 205
American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt (AmCham), 20–21, 23
American Cultural Center, 216
American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), 209–10
American Language Center (ALC), 216
AMIDEAST, 166
Amin, Taleb Kadi, 59
Annapolis peace conference, 200
anti-US protests, 86–88
Aoun, Michel, 105
Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD), 193
Arabiya, Al, television, 114
Arafat, Yasir, 35
Armitage, Richard, 228
Ashura, 170
Aspen Institute, 144
Assad, Anissa al-, 38
Assad, Asma al-, xviii, 25, 32, 34–38, 45–46, 51, 54–55, 57–58, 68–74, 92, 114, 180, 207
Assad, Basel al-, 110
Assad, Bashar al-ascension to presidency, 16, 51, 85, 151
and corruption, 71, 92, 230–31, 236, 239, 242
and economic downturn, xix, 242
and Hariri assassination investigation, 113–15, 117–20, 140–41, 176
and Hezbollah, xx, 13, 156, 158, 219, 232, 237–38, 241
and human rights, 177–78, 239
and Islam, 131, 133–34
and Israel, 48, 148, 150, 159–60, 176, 206–8, 222–23, 229–30, 237, 241–42
and Lebanon, xix, 13, 81, 83–85, 154, 206
marriage of, 36
and protest crackdowns, xviii, 151, 233–36, 239
reelection of, 179–82, 186
and reform, 4, 8, 26, 30, 66, 69, 88, 93, 107, 117, 160, 183–84, 236–37, 239
speech at Baath Conference, 95–100
and Syria’s nuclear program, 202, 219–20, 241
trip to China by, 70–74
and the US, xvii–xx, 13, 41–42, 48, 66, 83–88, 118, 159, 174–77, 187–189, 212, 218–19, 223, 228–33, 237–40, 242
Assad, Bushra al-, 110
Assad, Hafez al-, 4, 6, 14–16, 19, 39–40, 51, 57, 72–73, 100, 106–7, 110, 161, 179, 212, 219, 231, 234
Assad, Maher al-, 111–12, 117, 235–36
Assad, Rifaat al-, 19
Associated Press, 99
associations law, 36, 37, 50–51, 57
Assyrian Democratic Organization, 108–9, 141
Attar, Abdul Ghani, 182, 205
Attar, Abdul Rahman, 182
Attar, Ali Reza Sheikh, 199
Azm, Amr al-, 53, 56
Azm, Sadiq Jalal al-, 53
Baath Day, 133
Baath Party, 5–6, 8, 43, 57, 81, 86–91, 93, 119, 124–26, 133–34, 145, 226
conference of, 94–108, 117–18, 231
Baker, James, 15, 161
Barak, Ehud, 15
Battat, Joseph, 61, 73
Bayanouni, Ali Sadreddin al-, 90–91, 144
Bayda, Rola, 20, 25–26, 32, 34, 38–39, 44–46, 48–49, 55–56, 59–61, 64–67, 71–74
BBC World Service, 100
Beirut-Damascus/Damascus-Beirut Declaration, 146
Ben Ali, Zine el-Abidine, 232–33
Ben-Yishai, Ron, 193
Berri, Nabih, 87, 205
Bashir, Sheikh Nawaf al-, 108
Biden, Joe, 173
Bilal, Mohsen, 148, 168–69, 191
bin Laden, Osama, 21–22, 197
Blair, Tony, xvii, 148
Blanford, Nicholas, 111, 190
blue line (1949 cease fire line on Lebanon’s southern border), 149
Bolton, John, 43–45, 193
Bunni, Anwar al-, 146, 177
Burns, William, 228
Bush, George W., administration, xvii, xix, xxi, 25, 30, 41, 43–44, 49–50, 54, 62–63, 66, 83–84, 87, 128, 132, 141, 145–46, 148, 151–52, 158, 160–61, 163–67, 169, 173, 175–78, 181, 184, 194, 201–3, 210–11, 217–18, 220, 232, 235
Butters, Andrew, 168–69
Caldwell, William, 177
Camp David Accords, 7, 12–13, 22
Canada, 141, 240
Carter, Jimmy, 217
Cedar Revolution, 80–81
&
nbsp; Center for American Progress (CAP), 227
Cheney, Dick, xvii
Chilean embassy attack, 121–22, 136
China, 10, 62, 70–74, 240
Chirac, Jacques, 83
Christians, 5, 79, 137, 161–62, 178, 234
Christian Science Monitor, 99, 190
Circassians, 5
Clinton, Hillary, 132, 173, 221, 228–29
Clinton, William (Bill), 15, 217
Combating Terrorism Center (CTC), 195
Commercial Bank of Syria (CBS), 63, 225
Committee for the Revival of Civil Society, 90, 140
communism, 7–8, 140, 148. See also Marxism
Communist Labor Party (Syria), 140
Conoco Oil, 16–17
Corbin, Michael, 165–66, 190
Correctionist Movement, 6
Croatia, 240
Daily Star, 61
Damascus Community School (DCS), 189, 216
Damascus Declaration, 90, 108, 113,
140–46, 152, 178, 181, 209, 231, 235
Damascus Islamic Studies Center, 131
Damascus Spring, 4, 32, 49, 51, 90–91, 235
Danish embassy riots, 120–24, 129, 134, 137, 152
Dardari, Abdullah, 108, 183, 189, 224
Dar Emar, 52
Dib Zaitoun, Mohammed, 235
Dine, Tom, 209
discussion forums, 4, 36–37, 51, 57, 90–91
Djerejian, Edward P., 14, 212
Doha Accord, 213
Druze, 5, 79, 180, 234
Dulles, John Foster, 189
Economist, The, 99
Egypt, 6–8, 12, 17, 20–24, 37–38, 42, 48, 50–51, 129, 137, 150, 230–33
Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty of 1979, 12
Ellison, Keith, 174
emergency law, 31, 106–7, 138
Erdogan, Recep Tayyip, 207, 236
European Union, the (EU), 19, 124, 156, 208
Executive Order 13460, 239
Fadel, Nibras al-, 93
Fairouz, 87
Family Council, 60
Fatah, 129
Feltman, Jeffrey, 221–22
Ford, Robert, 228–29
Forward magazine, 167, 210, 217
France, 71, 81, 84, 150, 156, 207, 208, 237, 240
France Soir, 128
Free National Party, 90, 140
French embassy, 128
Fulbright program, 166
Fund for Integrated Rural Development of Syria (FIRDOS), 32–34, 37–38, 45–47, 52–53, 57–58, 69–70
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