The Big One

by Harrison Arnston

  Ted called the office number. A little-girl voice answered and said, “Dalton Research.”

  “Tommy Wilson, please.”

  “May I ask who’s calling?”

  “Sure. My name is Ted Kowalczyk. I’m a friend of Tommy’s.”

  There was a pause at the other end and then the little-girl voice asked, “May I ask what this is concerning, Mr. Kowal … sick?”

  “Kowal … sis … ick,” he corrected. “It’s a personal matter, nothing serious. If he’s busy, perhaps you could leave a note asking him to return the call.”

  Her voice lowered an octave and became downright conspiratorial. “Mr. Kowal … sack … I’m afraid that would be impossible. I’m very sorry to have to tell you this, but Mr. Wilson … was killed in an automobile accident three days ago.”

  Ted felt as though he’d been struck in the stomach with a heavy pipe. For a moment, his mouth refused to work. Finally, he was able to say a single word.

  “What?” he asked.

  While the stunned insurance investigator listened, she told him what little she knew, including the fact that the body had been cremated yesterday. There’d been no funeral service at the behest of Tommy himself, his wishes expressly spelled out in a will that had been drawn up shortly after the divorce.

  After a few more moments of conversation, Ted hung up the phone and leaned back in the chair, his body shivering as though he’d suddenly been deposited at the North Pole.

  It was strange. He hadn’t shivered like that since …

  He pushed the thought out of his mind and grabbed the sealed report. Inside the blue plastic cover was a thick scientific report and another letter from Tommy. This letter was longer.

  Much longer.

  “Dear Ted,” it began. “If you’re reading this, something must have happened to me. I’m sorry to drag you into this, but as I said in the other note, I don’t know where else to turn.

  “The report you have in your hands is a copy of one I am submitting this afternoon to a secret government agency called NADAT, which means National Disaster Alert Team. This agency is part of a Pentagon task force whose function is to assess the effects certain natural disasters, such as volcanoes, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes, would have on national security. They are a secret agency that appears to be working independent of either the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or the Geological Survey division of the Interior Department. I’m not sure I’m right about that, but it certainly seems like it. Why, I don’t know.

  “My report concerns some new research having to do with earthquake prediction. Actually, it’s really the reworking of another report that was prepared by a former colleague of mine, a geophysicist named Vance Gifford.

  “For the last ten years, Vance had been trying to develop a reliable method for predicting the location and magnitude of earthquakes. Two years ago, he made a major, major breakthrough. As soon as he reported his find, he was contacted by this NADAT outfit and told his work was classified Top Secret. Then, two months ago, he died suddenly of a stroke. Just like that.

  “I was immediately contacted by NADAT and asked to review Vance’s work and make a report of my own. Like Vance, I was told that everything was hush-hush and I was to discuss this with no one. It didn’t take me long to understand the concern. You see, Vance had been successful beyond anyone’s wildest imagination. He’d been able to predict three earthquakes in a row with uncanny accuracy.”

  Ted could feel the coldness within him intensifying. He read on.

  “The report is self-explanatory. Even though much of what’s in it is couched in scientific terms, you’ll still be able to understand the main thrust, which is simply that a monster earthquake is going to hit Los Angeles three and a half weeks from now.”

  Suddenly, Ted’s heart began to pound. At first glance, it looked like Tommy Wilson was out of his mind. What he was reading was … impossible.

  He read on.

  “I know it sounds like the voice of doom and in a way it is. Sad to say, it’s true. This earthquake will have a magnitude equal to or greater than anything we’ve ever experienced on the face of this earth. Ever. The most destructive quake in the history of the world, Ted. And the epicenter will be Los Angeles. Not fifty miles away but right in the middle of the megalopolis! And we know it’s coming! A first! At least for a great earthquake, it is.

  “The problem, and it’s hard for me to say this, is that NADAT intends to do nothing with this information. I repeat: Nothing! There’ll be no warnings, no evacuations, no emergency preparations … nothing. Don’t ask me why. All I know is that NADAT, for some reason, carries a lot of weight and that’s the route they plan to take. It’s completely insane! Why are we trying to discover ways to predict earthquakes if we aren’t going to use the knowledge?! I just don’t understand it!

  “I think Vance found out about this and wanted to do something about it. And because of his feelings, I now fear that Vance’s death was caused by something other than a stroke. If that makes me sound paranoid, I just can’t help it. Naturally, I can’t prove a thing, but I’m planning on telling NADAT this afternoon that I intend to take this issue to a higher authority if they don’t do something. They may not want me to do that, so you, in fact, are my ace in the hole.

  “If something has happened to me, that should prove my point. I can’t think of any other way to make it.”

  For a moment, Ted put the letter down on the desk and rubbed his eyes. He was still having difficulty believing what he was reading. It didn’t make any sense. Then he picked up the report and continued on, the adrenaline coursing through his veins unchecked.

  “I turn to you,” Tommy had written, “because you are one of the few people in the world I really trust. I’m a scientist, not a detective. I simply don’t know where to turn. I figure your past experience as an FBI agent will help you decide what to do. I just don’t have any idea. I’m not sure going to the media is the answer. I’ve heard that studies have been done pointing to a massive panic if such news was released without careful preparation beforehand. Such a panic would create problems almost as terrible as the quake itself. Almost.

  “As well, I’m not sure who in government is in league with these people (NADAT) and who isn’t. So I can’t suggest where you should go there either.

  “I’m not asking you to find out what happened to me. That’s unimportant.”

  Unimportant! Ted’s hands formed into fists as he read that particular word. Unimportant! It was very important. At the very least, it was a starting point. Aside from that, it wasn’t in Ted’s nature to blindly accept something that was obviously wrong. He read on.

  “I’m asking you to make sure this report gets into the hands of somebody who can do something,” the letter continued. “The earthquake can’t be stopped, but the lives of millions are at stake here. That’s what’s really important. It’s beyond me why NADAT plans no action. Maybe you can find out. I want you to try. In fact, I beg you to try. In any case, I apologize once again for bringing you into it, but I don’t really have much choice.”

  There was the name and Menlo Park address of the man from NADAT and one final paragraph.

  “One more thing. Please see Terry and tell her how sorry I am for messing up both our lives. I realize now, belatedly, how stupid I was. I had a woman who loved me and I let her down badly. I was so wrapped up in my work and what did it get me in the end? Not much.”

  The letter was signed simply, “Tommy.”

  Ted put the letter down and opened the report. Instead of reading it through, he turned to the back pages and looked for the conclusions. It didn’t take long to find them. And it didn’t take long to read them. They took Ted’s breath away.

  “As stated earlier,” the report concluded, “the dilatancy theory alone is not enough, but when combined with the other three measurements detailed in earlier sections, a definitive estimate can be given as to the location and magnitude of earthquakes within the control secto
rs.

  “Three earthquakes having an intensity of 4 or more have been accurately predicted. Using the methods described, I am confident that an earthquake having a magnitude of at least 5.2 will occur in section 65 of the newly discovered Glendale fault line on May 5 or 6. The epicenter will be within three miles of the intersection of Interstate 5 and the Glendale freeway.”

  Ted stopped reading the report and grabbed the morning paper. The prediction had been right on. The epicenter of yesterday’s quake had been pinpointed and it was right where the report had indicated it would be. Again, Ted looked at the original wrapper that the package had been mailed in. It was postmarked four days ago, just as he’d noticed the first time.

  No mistake.

  The chills began anew.

  These two men had correctly predicted the magnitude and the location of yesterday’s quake. There was simply no question about it. And they were predicting …

  He read on. “The analysis of the data points to an earthquake having a magnitude of at least 4.8 striking section 145 of the San Andreas fault line, located three miles south of Hollister, between May 9 and 10. Another of similar strength will occur in the same region one week later, most likely May 16. While larger than normal, these earthquakes are common in the area and illustrate the steady shifting of the plates as outlined in section 4. These earthquakes, once they occur, will serve to further emphasize the validity of our newly developed prediction techniques.”

  Then came the real shocker.

  “The Oct. 1, 1987 quake that occurred on the Whittier Narrows fault line is now determined to be a precursor to what I believe will be the most devastating earthquake ever experienced on this earth. I expect this new earthquake to have a magnitude in excess of 9.3 and perhaps as strong as 9.5. Its epicenter will be in section 73, located five miles west of the Oct. 1 quake, along the fault line illustrated in figure 53. The earthquake will occur between May 27 and 28. This great earthquake …”

  The report described in detail the effects of such an unprecedented jolt. Every building that stood over four stories would collapse, no matter how it was constructed. The rupturing of underground gas lines would release invisible clouds of gas into the atmosphere that were sure to be ignited, causing massive fires. Oil and gasoline refineries, smashed into ruins, would provide additional fuel to the fires. Flaming rivers of oil and gas, ignited by fallen power lines, would spill over much of the Los Angeles basin, carried along by waters from heavily damaged reservoirs. What wasn’t leveled by the quake would be burned. Fractured mains would reduce water pressure to zero, invalidating any attempts to extinguish the fires.

  Roads would be impassable. Medical help would be nonexistent, with hospitals in ruins. There would be no communications, no electricity. Entire communities resting on hilltops would come tumbling down, further blocking already useless highways with tons of clay and debris.

  If there was a temperature inversion, common to Los Angeles, and no wind, the smoke and dust would choke the life out of almost every living thing that managed to survive. LAX, Hollywood-Burbank and Long Beach airports would be turned into a useless jumble of broken runways. Fuel reservoirs would be destroyed. The only access to the city itself would be by helicopter.

  And that wasn’t all. The effects of the quake would be felt in nine states. The range of severe damage would form a semicircle that would include cities such as San Diego, Riverside and Santa Barbara. Outside that imaginary line, damage would be more moderate, but cities as far away as Las Vegas and San Francisco would still suffer substantial damage.

  The report also predicted that a tsunami, a tidal wave moving at almost the speed of sound, a phenomenon common to great earthquakes, would originate in Los Angeles and move up and down the coast, as well as hurtle across the Pacific Ocean. It was possible that the Hawaiian Islands would be hit by an explosive rush of water that would do terrible damage. The entire western coast of the Northern Hemisphere would feel the effects of such a wave as well. In fact, the incredible effects of this most violent earthquake would be felt throughout the entire world.

  But for Los Angeles, the epicenter, it would be a holocaust.

  And Tommy Wilson, as Vance Gifford had stated before him, was convinced it was going to happen. The report requested that immediate measures be taken to prepare the people of Los Angeles, both physically and psychologically, for what would be the most terrible experience of their lives. A plan for the total uprooting of as many as ten million people would have to be prepared and carried out. Billions of dollars worth of real estate would simply have to be abandoned.

  It was an incredible undertaking.

  And it had to be done now!

  Ted put the report down and stared out the window, numbed by what he had read.

  He tried to think.

  The prediction of the small temblor had been completely accurate. According to the morning paper, the quake’s epicenter had been exactly where predicted. And it had happened yesterday, three days after the report had been mailed to Ted.

  That made it four accurate predictions in a row.

  It was mind-boggling.

  God! It was unthinkable!

  Ted rubbed his forehead, as if the activity would force his mind to function properly. He was almost dizzy from the shock of learning what was in the report.

  He picked up the letter and read it again. It asked that Ted take the report to someone who could force the government to evacuate the city.

  Who should that be?

  The newspapers? Television stations?

  No … Not yet.

  It was such a terrible responsibility. Once the information was out, there was no bringing it back. What if there was a panic?

  This kind of information had to be presented by someone who was respected and immediately believed. Someone who had the power to order the evacuation of the city.

  But Tommy had said …

  Ted looked at the calendar on his desk. May 27 was just over three weeks away. Plenty of time, in his initial judgment, to evacuate Los Angeles, if that’s what it came to. But first, Ted felt, he had to read it all. Then he had to understand it. Then he would decide what to do. He couldn’t make a decision now. It was too soon. He was still in shock. The decision might be the wrong one. He needed time to think.

  He left his office and stopped by Shirley’s desk. “I’ll be back in about twenty minutes. I have to make some copies.”

  She looked almost hurt. “I can do that for you,” she said.

  He forced a grin to his lips. “I know, but this is personal stuff. I’ll be back in a bit.”

  When he returned with the copies, he put the original in his personal office safe, and put one of the copies in his briefcase. He took the second copy, enclosed a copy of the letter from Tommy, and shoved it all into a large manila envelope. He placed that in his briefcase as well. He wanted to mail it to someone, but for the moment, he didn’t know exactly who it should be.

  Then he picked up the phone and punched the buttons that would connect him with his boss back in Hartford. In a matter of seconds, Frank Leach was on the phone.

  “Frank … Ted Kowalczyk.”

  “Ted, babe … how’s it goin’? Things still rattlin’ out there?”

  Frank Leach was one of those people who looked and sounded like a used car salesman. He called everyone babe and slapped shoulders like a ham-handed oaf. Devoid of the social graces, the man was indeed an oaf, but … he was one terrific insurance investigator. Had it not been for that, Ted would have been long gone from Connecticut Mutual.

  “Frank,” Ted began, “I need two things.”

  “Just name it, babe.”

  “I need everything you’ve got on earthquakes … and I need a few days off.”

  “Earthquakes?” The voice was filled with curiosity. “We got nothing to do with earthquakes. You know that.”

  “I know,” Ted said, “but you have the association. You can find out what’s going on from your connections there
.”

  He could almost see the little antenna on the back of Frank’s head beginning to rise. “What exactly are you after?”

  “I don’t know yet,” Ted said. “All I know is that I want to find out everything I can as soon as I can. The underwriters of earthquake insurance must know a lot of things that might be useful. I’d like to get a handle on some of it.”

  Frank wasn’t buying it. “I don’t understand, babe. I read that the earthquake was relatively minor. What’s got you so upset?”

  Ted had to play it coy. If he told the man nothing, he would get nothing. If he told him too much, the cat would be out of the bag.

  “I can’t tell you that,” he said. “Not just now, anyway. Let’s just say that I’ve picked up on some rumors I want to check out. As soon as I have something solid, I’ll let you know. OK?”

  For a moment there was silence on the other end of the line. Then, “Has this got anything to do with the hearings next week?”

  The words stunned him. He’d completely forgotten about the hearings, even though they’d received considerable attention in the media. Because his company was not involved in the selling of earthquake insurance, they hadn’t seemed to matter much, other than to provide a forum for those whose prime interest was in further defacing the image of the insurance industry as a whole. Now … they took on a totally different dimension.

  “No,” he said, “this is something else.”

  A sigh. Then, “OK, Ted. I’ll play along. But be quick, will ya? We’re runnin’ way behind.”

  “I’ll be quick,” Ted said. Then he hung up the phone, grabbed his briefcase and headed out of his office.

  Stopping by Shirley’s desk again, he said, “Shirley, I have to be out of town for a few days. Something’s come up.”

  She looked mildly surprised. It was the nature of his business to be running all over the state at the drop of a hat.

  “Did you call Mr. Jacobs?”

  “No,” he said, “I didn’t. If he calls again, just tell him it’s out of my hands. He can talk to the company attorneys. I’m not about to alter my report. His client is a crook and that’s that.”