The Storm Before the Storm

by Joe Russell

  To him, this principle applied even more to the whole prepper category. This area, including the defense of himself and his family in any regard, was something he took very seriously and applied the Roosevelt quote to directly. He had seen enough evil in the world to not have any shadow of a doubt that a stick, so to speak, was needed and he was never far from a weapon and other basic survival gear. He easily dismissed criticism of this proactive, in his opinion, mindset and habit by saying that it was better to have something and not need it, than to need it and not have it, because closing your eyes never makes the monsters go away. In fact, contrary to what some across the fence would assume, this constant state of physical and mental preparedness actually gave him peace of mind. It was simple. If trouble went out of its way to find him, he knew he was set up to counter it the best he could. And it wasn’t just him, but those around him, too. Not too long ago, this kind of scenario had manifested itself in his life and with the right attitude, proper preparedness, and God’s grace, he had stood up in the face of evil and had probably saved two of the dearest people in his life.

  He believed in both parts of the saying, however. As ready as he was for a fight, he didn’t want one. To him, speaking softly meant a lot of things. It meant not boasting on social media and to other people about your wealth or possessions, especially in the area of weapons and survival gear. It meant carrying concealed if necessary, but not open carrying in public. Sure, he was all for the second amendment and most interpretations that conservatives derived from it, but he saw a clear distinction between a war setting and a civilian self-defense setting. If he was in a restaurant, store, on the street, or anywhere in public at the time of a terrorist attack, robbery, assault, rape, or any other criminal act that warranted lethal action, he didn’t want a target painted on him because he had been parading around with a visible weapon. He knew that in a situation such as that, the element of surprise could mean the difference between eliminating the threat and being initially targeted and eliminated by the threat. Especially in circumstances where there were multiple perpetrators that were well armed. Therefore, he tried to stay below the radar in this area, not revealing in conversation or on social media much about his family’s wealth, preparedness, guns and carrying, or anything else that could draw too much attention and attract trouble. He figured that doing so was like leaving a purse in plain sight in an unlocked car, and being surprised when someone takes it.

  This vast difference in personalities between Dave and Sandra was alive and well when it came to planning for trips like this and it was why Dave was able to successfully poke fun at Sandra with his comment. She liked to map out the route, make a checklist of things to do, and have a definite plan when it came to the trail, daily hiking distance, and other specific types of planning. However, she relied almost completely on Dave’s judgement to advise her on what clothes, gear, and food to bring. Dave, on the other hand, was more of a non-specific planner. He wasn’t very reliable when it came to doing a certain thing by a certain time, at least when Sandra was the one asking, and this often frustrated her with him being so aloof. He wasn’t quite irresponsible when it came to scheduling, money, and other things of that sort, he just didn’t have the natural tendency to take those things as seriously as Sandra. He was, however, much more serious about planning for general future events and having the bases covered as best he could for the unknown. Where Sandra felt the need to put money in the account for their future son or daughter’s college fund, Dave preferred to buy a box of bullets or a bag of rice. This of course, would sound silly to those who assumed that the future, or more specifically, the structure of society in the future was both stable and no different from the way it was currently. Dave, however, didn’t make such assumptions. He did think that college was a great thing to save for and he was glad they had. But what if things changed between now and then, and college was no longer an option or a priority? What if the U.S. dollar became unstable and a bunch of ones and zeros in the bank’s computer lost all of their value? While most people either didn’t have any awareness that anything this extreme could ever occur, or refused to believe that it would, Dave didn’t like taking society’s current relative stability for granted. He saw the signs and knew there were many ways that the balance could be tipped a little easier than most knew.

  A well-coordinated terror attack on America’s infrastructure, especially that relating to oil refining, would cause an instant fuel crisis. If a substantial portion of the nation’s capacity to produce its own oil occurred in conjunction with any other national crisis, martial law would be declared and fuel sales would be restricted or cease altogether to the public, so that the remaining supply on hand could be reserved for government, military, and law enforcement to ensure they had the resources to restore and retain order until fuel became available again; which certainly wouldn’t happen overnight. In the meantime, not only would travelers become stranded on the interstates or in distant cities, but commercial transportation would grind to a halt without enough fuel, and retailers would lose their steady stream of supply in a day or two. Most retailers, especially grocery stores, don’t even keep a week's worth of food on hand, but rely on a “just in time” restocking schedule, meaning that if the schedule was interrupted for a couple days, they would run out of most things. And if the delay coincided with an alarming national crisis, people would all go out and try to stock up on whatever they could, relieving the grocery stores and other retailers of their inventory in a fraction of the time it would normally take. It would be like the way people rushed the local grocery store to by milk and bread before a largely anticipated snowstorm, but on a much larger scale with more panic and no snow plows just around the corner.

  Meanwhile, without fuel readily available, many people traveling and working a good distance from home could get stranded where they were, if they didn’t have enough in the tank to make it back. The gas stations would be rushed the same or sooner as the grocery stores, and with the spiked demand and no more trucks coming to refuel, would limit sales and soon run out altogether. Or they would be ordered by local law enforcement to halt sales, in order to reserve what was left for official use. Either way, the inability to travel would cause a whole other type of crisis at the same time, amplifying the common outcome.

  Ultimately, it would be this shortage of available food and fuel that would have the potential to turn society on its head. Similar to grocery stores, most families don’t keep a month’s, or even a week’s worth of food in the pantry, especially in urban areas. Without the possibility of running to the grocery store, these people would run out of food in a matter of days, with no honorable means of finding more. With today’s population density, only the most rural areas could support their current populations by those people living off the land, assuming the people even knew how. However, for most of the country, especially the big coastal cities and suburbs, it was simply not possible for the land to sustain the vast majority of their populations. And even if it could, ironically it was generally these people who had the least clue as to how to do it. Sure, there were plenty of city folk that were from the country, had outdoor skills, or were even preppers, but the overwhelming majority of those who were not in this category, and the gangs that were not even being effectively controlled now, would turn these population centers into abysses of starvation, disease, and violence almost overnight. If this scenario were to occur, even people who had previously been docile, law-abiding citizens would resort to whatever primal means necessary to prevent themselves and their children from starving. After a day or two, when stranded travelers and commuters, along with hungry, worried parents realized that they needed to fend for themselves, all hell would break loose. Especially in the cities. Riots, looting, and stealing would become widespread when desperate people did desperate things to help themselves or their families. This would only snowball because with members of law enforcement and first responders only making up a tiny portion of the population, they would
n’t be able to begin to contain the magnitude of disorder. Most towns only had a handful of cops who were barely prepared for a single incident at a time, and most cities could barely stay on top of crime on normal days. With much of the general population participating in the lawlessness that was not isolated but occurring everywhere at the same time, they would be spread too thin to be able to stop most of it. Then, once people saw that the law couldn’t or wouldn’t do anything about it, there would be even more lawlessness. At this point, criminals would no longer be checked by law enforcement. Even worse, for every dangerous criminal in society, there are ten, twenty, or fifty not-so-good people that wouldn’t hesitate to engage in the same activities, if they knew there wouldn’t likely be legal repercussions. Gangs would run wild and begin to imperialize the cities, then slowly expand outwards to claim more territory and plunder. Many people would take advantage of the situation to settle old scores or try to take what they wanted, whether it be money, cars, food, water, or worse: people. It sounds so far removed from our society today, but how much crime is there already today with law enforcement and a justice system in place? A few riots and robberies would spiral quickly and with nothing to counter it, would not stop, similar to the way a single spark could easily burn a city to the ground if no one was able to stop the flame from spreading early enough. What’s worse, is that with their families in danger, many law enforcement personnel, national guard, and other first responders wouldn’t even show up for work, if they had to choose between protecting strangers and protecting their loved ones. This increasing size gap between those who were engaging in the lawlessness and those attempting to stop it would only make the whole thing spiral down faster.

  There were other scenarios, such as an electromagnetic pulse or coronal mass ejection, that would ultimately have the same effect. Dave had done some research on this. An EMP resulting from the detonation of a nuclear weapon in the upper atmosphere, due to the chemical makeup of the environment, would effectually magnify the strength of the radiation as it hit everything in its line of sight. If such an event occurred over the north-central part of the country for example, the radiation would be able to hit just about all of the continental United States and most of Canada. Due to the strength of the ultra-high frequency radiation, everything would act as a lightning rod, and everything with digital electronics; cell phones, computers, and modern vehicles to name a few, would probably be fried. There are differing opinions as to the extent of this damage, mostly because it has never really been observed in real life and only to a limited extent in labs. Additionally, and ultimately more important that the possible death of cell phones and cars, the electronic grid infrastructure would suffer terminal damage, shutting off the power in the most affected areas. A CME, or Coronal Mass Ejection, could potentially have the same devastating effects, but is a natural phenomenon caused by solar flares. Those had happened in the past, but technology wasn’t advanced - or fragile - enough to sustain damage. Now, it would be a different story. Both of these scenarios would clearly have similar, if not worse, damaging effects on society and rule of law.

  Dave did not want any of these things to happen. It irritated him that mainstream society looked at preppers and survivalists like they had three heads and wanted the world to burn. Granted, he knew there were some who were that way, but to generalize all responsibly prepared and independent people into a group of doomsday-longing nut jobs was simply wrong. Sure, part of him, like most people, longed for an exciting change in life and part of him was disgusted with the direction that his country and society was taking, but for any of these scenarios to occur, the result would be real hell on Earth, plain and simple. He didn’t even like the terms ‘prepper’ or ‘survivalist’ because the media had turned them into political labels, same as ‘liberal’, ‘conservative’, ‘assault weapon’, or ‘terrorist’. He could understand why many people who hadn’t grown up how he did, had the experiences he did, and know the things he knew, might not see the value in preparing to the extent that he did. However, he thought it was just plain irresponsible, especially as the man of the house and more importantly, the one with the assumed responsibility to protect his people, to just assume that if something bad ever happened, someone else would take care of them. Or worse, pretending that nothing ever could. It wasn’t about wanting anything to happen, but recognizing the fact that anything could happen, quite regardless of whether anyone really wanted it to or not. At the end of the day, no one could know what was going to happen. No one could prepare perfectly for any disaster. But those who prepare the best they can, and rely on God’s grace and favor for the rest, will always fare better than those who do nothing, or worse - pretend it can’t happen.

  It was in this regard that Dave excelled. He’d had some success in convincing both Sandra’s parents and his own to take some measures, even if they were modest, in adopting this mindset. Neither couple was as aware of it all as Dave would have liked them to be, but both had taken some measures to keep extra food on hand, and Dave’s father had bought a shotgun and learned how to use it. Although these were elementary in the eyes of a devoted survivalist, they were still ahead of most people, especially those in the most populated areas who were, ironically, both the most dependent on basic necessities such as food and water and would be in the most danger should the thin veneer of order ever crumble. More importantly, however, was the fact that they were all aware of The Plan.

  The Plan, as it was so colorfully named, was the precipitated effect of Dave and his grandfather becoming aware of all of this in the first place. They had both read a fictional series written by an Army Intelligence Officer, in which a similar thing was happening as a result of an economic “crunch” due to irresponsible regulation and business practices. From there, they read another rather popular novel depicting life in the mountains of North Carolina after an EMP. These books, along with their preexisting interests in many of the individual activities that combined would make them natural candidates for survivalists, set them on their journey of conscious preparedness.

  Dave’s grandparents lived in the mountains outside of Wardensville, West Virginia. They had lived most of their lives in Loudoun County, back when it had been more rural. After retiring, they had decided to move west away from the development, but not too far from the rest of the family. It was there, where Dave and his grandfather, his mother’s father, Paul, had made the base for their plan. It was nothing complicated. Just a relatively secluded house in the mountains where the whole family could bug out to, should there ever be a need.

  It wasn’t just having that location, however. Using his own knowledge of outdoor survival and tips he’d picked up from books he had read, Dave had assembled different kits. He kept what he called a Car Kit with him in his vehicle at all times. Some would consider this analogous to a ‘bug out bag’ or better yet, a ‘get home bag’. It basically was designed to be made up of items that he wanted to have, should anything severe ever happen that would prevent him from getting home, such as an EMP attack that would disable his truck while he was away. He recognized that this could be considered a stretch, but on the other hand, if he was prepared for an unlikely yet apocalyptic-level event, he would certainly be prepared for any smaller, more common crisis, such as a severe storm, local terror attack, or another home invasion he may stumble upon…

  He had a plastic crate of supplemental provisions that he added to his Car Kit for longer trips that essentially consisted of more food, and extra blankets, etc., but his Car Kit, he thought, was fairly thorough. He had a 5.11 Rush 72 backpack and a plastic tote loaded with food and gear. He kept a Ruger Mini 30 rifle unloaded under the backseat, with magazines and plenty of 7.62x39 ammunition in the tote and backpack.

  To supplement this Car Kit, he also had a small 5.11 Moab 6 sling pack that he used as his everyday carry bag, or EDC. Even though he or any other man that had one wasn’t fond of this comparison, it was essentially a purse of a manly man. In it, he kept his keys, a fe
w small snacks, a Leatherman Wave, a Ka-bar BK17 fixed blade knife, a small first aid kit, his glasses (for backup, as he normally wore contacts), matches, and of course, his favorite sidearm, a Beretta 92FS with three spare magazines. He kept this bag with him at all times, if he could help it. Having his gear with him did not mean that he was immune to anything, but having taken measures to at least prepare himself the best he could against any foreseeable danger, as unlikely as it may be, gave him both peace of mind and a sense of satisfaction that he was prepared to defend himself and his family, God forbid he ever had to again. So many Americans had what he considered a false sense of security derived from the fact that they were Americans, but although Dave loved his country, he knew that the relative law and order that they had enjoyed as a nation for a long time might not last forever and in the end, they were no more invulnerable to danger than any other society at any other point in history. He was a law-abiding citizen and wanted peace in his world, but expecting to avoid violence and danger in this world because of that was like assuming you don’t need to wear your seatbelt because you are a good driver, or you don’t want to have a car accident. There are bad drivers on the road everywhere and they collide with good drivers every day.

  The group finished up their breakfast while discussing the details of the hike. They talked about the weather forecast, who was going to carry the tents, and what they were going to eat. Dave was excited and couldn’t wait to get started. When the two couples had paid their bills, they pulled themselves out of their booth and headed for the door. Once outside in the parking lot, they walked past a brand new black Jeep Wrangler with Maryland tags. It was nice, but looked like the gravel parking lot was the roughest terrain it had ever seen. Dave rolled his eyes inwardly, thinking, I bet I know who that belongs to…