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The Viral Storm

Page 26

by Nathan Wolfe


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  Webster, J. P., and G. A. McConkey. “Toxoplasma Gondii-Altered Host Behaviour: Clues as to Mechanism of Action.” Folia Parasitologica 57, no. 2 (2010): 95–104.

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  12: THE FINAL PLAGUE

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  Khan, S. H., et al. “New Opportunities for Field Research on the Pathogenesis and Treatment of Lassa Fever.” Antiviral Research 78, no. 1 (2008): 103–15; doi:10.1016/j.antiviral.2007.11.003.

  LeBreton, M., A. T. Prosser, U. Tamoufe, W. Sateren, E. Mpoudi-Ngole, J. L. D. Diffo, D. S. Burke, and N. D. Wolfe. “Healthy Hunting in Central Africa.” Animal Conservation 9 (2006): 372–74; doi: 10.1111/j.1469–1795.2006.00073.x.

  Pike, B. L., K. E. Saylors, J. N. Fair, M. LeBreton, U. Tamoufe, C. F. Djoko, A. W. Rimoin, and N. D. Wolfe. “The Origin and Prevention of Pandemics.” Clinical Infectious Diseases 50, no. 12 (2010): 1636–40; doi:10.1086/652860.

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  Sharp, C. P., et al. “Widespread Infection with Homologues of Human Parvoviruses B19, PARV4, and Human Bocavirus of Chimpanzees and Gorillas in the Wild.” Journal of Virology ePub (2010). January 28, 2010; doi:10.1128/JVI.01304-10.

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  Wolfe, N., L. Gunasekara, and Z. Bogue. “Crunching Digital Data Can Help the World-CNN.” CNN Opinion. Cable News Network, February 2, 2011.

  Wolfe, N. “Epidemic Intelligence.” The Economist, November 22, 2010, “The World in 2011,” Science sec.

  Wolfe, N. “All Risks Are Not Created Equal.” Anderson Cooper 360. Cable News Network, April 30, 2010.

  _____. “Preventing the Next Pandemic.” Scientific American (April 2009): 76–81.

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  Because of the intense collaborative nature of the scientific research that these pages are based on, there are many people to thank. But before I do I’d like to express gratitude to those who helped me to make the book itself a reality. My outstanding agent, Max Brockman of Brockman and Company, Steve Rubin, president and publisher of Henry Holt and Company, and Paul Golob, the editorial director of Times Books, were all essential in this process. My editor, Serena Jones, provided keen direction and perspective along the way. Special thanks go to the outstanding students who have taken my Stanford University class, who helped through their thoughtful deep dives into the literature and wonderful questions. Finally to Kevin Kwan, who assisted with photos, and Robin Lee, whose diligence and daily assistance were invaluable.

  As a scientist, my mentors who have shared with me their expertise and ideas over the years deserve credit for the positive elements of my work. Victor Jankowski gave me my first taste of the thrill of science as a child and Bill Durham at Stanford University helped to launch my research career. Richard Wrangham and Marc Hauser helped me to find the right direction for my work. Andy Spielman, of beloved memory, took me into his research group and under his wing and gave me the opportunity and training to conduct research that seemed odd to many at the time. Billy Karesh generously gave me my first opportunity to engage in field research and showed me how it was done. Don Burke, my postdoctoral mentor, has provided years of support and friendship and perhaps the greatest thing a young scientist can ask for: wonderful research projects and the freedom to pursue them. Don truly lives by his own quote: “You can accomplish almost anything if you are willing to give up credit for it.” Debbi Birx, Larry Brilliant, Jared Diamond, Don Francis, Peggy Hamburg, Tom Monath, Ed Penhoet, Frank Rijsberman, Linda Rosenstock, and Jon Samet have provided much appreciated assistance and advice on my work as an independent scientist.

  The work that formed the basis of this book would not have been possible without the collaboration of the forward thinking partners whom I have had the good fortune to engage with over the years. Early support by the Taplin Family to the Harvard School of Public Health, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Fogarty International Center, and the US Military HIV Research Program helped to provide legs for my research. Ongoing partnerships with excellent programs in the US Department of Defense, including the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and the DoD HIV/AIDS Prevention Program have permitted the long-term continuity required to make real progress in this type of research, and the Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine has played a key role in facilitating the process. Backing from innovative, generous organizations including Google.org, the Skoll Foundation, and the NIH Director’s Pioneer Award program provided unique flexibility at exactly the right times and gave the potential for my research program to take pivotal new directions. Individuals within these and other organizations have shown incredible dedication toward moving the world in the right direction: Anna Barker, Debbi Birx, David Blazes, Larry Brilliant, Will Chapman, Dave Franz, Michael Grillo, Lakshmi Karan, Bruce Lowry, Nelson Michael, Sally Osberg, Jennifer Rubenstein, Kevin Russell, Toti Sanchez, Richard Shaffer, Mark Smolinksi, Joanne Stevens, Kofi Wurapa, and Cheryl Zook. Jeff Skoll, in particular has shown great vision and has helped to address the problem of pandemics with tools as varied as social entrepreneurship and feature film. The USAID Emerging Pandemic Threats Program under the leadership of Dennis Carroll now provides support aimed directly at one of my primary objectives—to predict and prevent the emergence of novel infectious agents. I feel fortunate to be able to participate in this important program with my exceptional collaborators at the University of California, Davis, the Ecohealth Alliance, the Wildlife Conservation Society, the Smithsonian, and the Academy for Educational Development. I thank Lorry Lokey for his generosity in funding the professorship in the Program in Human Biology at Stanford that I have the honor to hold.

  I have had the good fortune to collaborate with a wide range of first-rate scientists, clinical veterinarians, and physicians and their teams, many of whom have been mentioned in these pages, including Raul Andino, Francisco Ayala, Chris Beyrer, Patrick Blair, David Blazes, John Brownstein, Michael Callahan, Dennis Caroll, Jean Carr, Mary Carrington, Jinping Chen, Charles Chiu, Nicholas Christakis, Dale Clayton, William Collins, Robert A. Cook, Mike Cranfield, Derek Cummings, Peter Daszak, Eric Delaporte, Eric Delwart, Joe Der
isi, Kathy Dimeo, Jon Epstein, Ananias Escalante, Jeremy Farrar, Homayoon Farzadegan, Jay Fishman, Yuri Fofanov, Tom Folks, Peter Fonjungo, Pierre Formenty, James Fowler, Pascal Gagneux, Alemnji George, Hillary Godwin, Tony Goldberg, Chris Golden, Jean-Paul Gonzalez, Greg Gray, Duane Gubler, Swati Gupta, Beatrice Hahn, W. D. Hamilton, Art Hapner, Kris Helgen, Walid Heneine, Lisa Hensley, Indira Hewlett, Tom Hughes, Warren Jones, Marcia Kalish, Paul Kellam, Gustavo Kijak, Annelisa Kilbourn, Marm Kilpatrick, Neville Kisalu, Lisa Krain, Mark Kuniholm, Altaf Lal, Benhur Lee, Fabian Leendertz, Eric Leroy, Ian Lipkin, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, Chris Mast, Jonna Mazet, Wilfred Mbacham, Francine McCutchan, Angela Mclean, Herman Meyer, Matthew Miller, Steve Morse, Bill Moss, Suzan Murray, Lucy Ndip, Dianne Newman, Paul Newton, Chris Ockenhouse, Claire Panosian, Jonathan Patz, Martine Peeters, C. J. Peters, Rob Phillips, Brian Pike, Oliver Pybus, Shoukhat Qari, Steve Quake, Steve Rich, Annie Rimoin, Forest Rohwer, Ben Rosenthal, Kevin Russell, Maryellen Ruvolo, Robin Ryder, Warren Sateren, David Schnabel, Peter Simmonds, David Sintasath, Mark Slifka, Tom Smith, Joe Sodroski, Mike Steiper, Bill Switzer, Joe Tector, Sam R. Telford III, Judith Torimiro, Murray Trostle, Ajit Varki, Linfa Wang, Hugh Waters, Ana Weil, Kelly Welsh, Mark Woolhouse, Linda Wright, De Wu, Otto Yang, and Susan Zmicki. Adria Tassy Prosser played a pivotal role in helping to establish our program in Cameroon.

  Special thanks go to my colleagues who make my life working internationally not only productive but a true pleasure: Ba Oumar Paulette, Dato Hasan Abdul Rahman, Mpoudi Ngole Eitel, Stephan Weise, Ke Changwen, Patrick Kayembe, Rose Leke, Jean-Jacques Muyembe, Koulla Shiro, Shuyi Zhang, Prime Mulembakani, Janet Cox, Balbir Singh, Edwin Bosi, Mahedi Patrick Andau, Olinga Jean-Pascal, and Emile Okitolonda. I thank them for welcoming me in their countries and homes. Appreciated also are the talented writers and journalists who have taken the time to visit us and who conduct the important work of translating science, like ours, to a broader audience, including Scott Z. Burns, Tom Clynes, Anderson Cooper, David Elisco, Sanjay Gupta, Anjali Nayar, Evan Ratliff, Michael Specter, and Vijay Vaitheeswaran.

  I am incredibly fortunate to lead a team that includes some of the best and brightest at their work, who also manage to make my day-to-day life fun and exciting. Jeremy Alberga, Joseph Fair, and Lucky Gunasekara guide their respective teams to conduct the highest quality work under often challenging conditions. They impress me daily with their skill and dedication. Ubald Tamoufe and Alexis Boupda have been the best of partners in Central Africa. Mat LeBreton and Cyrille Djoko and their teams push science forward every day with talent and commitment. Karen Saylors, Corina Monagin, Erin Papworth, Maria Makuwa, and Kanya Long have all managed to conduct excellent work while managing complex programs in countries around the world. The work could not be done without the many other skilled scientists, technicians, and logisticians working at our headquarters in San Francisco or in labs and field sites around the world. I hope to work with all of them for many years to come.

  I thank my father, Chuck Wolfe, mother, Carol Wittenberg, and sister, Julie Hirsch, and their families for always encouraging my love of science and standing decidedly by me despite my years of travel and absence, and my sweet grandmother, Ann Sloman, who has supported her grandson despite the fact that he didn’t want to become a “doctor.” I am privileged to have loyal and generous friends who have kindly contributed their valuable time and unique skills to my work, including Zack Bogue, Sebastian Buckup, June Cohen, Tom DeRosa, Jeffrey Epstein, Sanjay Gupta, Erez Kalir, John Kelley, Nina Khosla, Larry Kirshbaum, Boris Nikolic, Sally O’Brien, Sarah Schlesinger, Narry Singh, Linda Stone, and Riaz Valani. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank Lauren Gunderson, my thoughtful, wonderful reader, editor, and partner who kept me going throughout.

  INDEX

  The index that appeared in the print version of this title does not match the pages in your eBook. Please use the search function on your eReading device to search for terms of interest. For your reference, the terms that appear in the print index are listed below.

  acupuncture

  acute microbes

  adenovirus

  agriculture

  AIDS. See also HIV

  antiretrovial therapy for

  GV virus C protective for

  historical HIV sample and

  HIV infection vs.

  immune system and

  organ transplants and

  airline flight attendants

  air travel

  Alberga, Jeremy

  Amgen

  Andino, Raul

  animal blood specimens

  animal die-offs

  antelopes

  anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)

  antibiotics

  antiretroviral drugs

  ants, leaf-cutter

  apes. See also specific species

  anthrax and

  as microbial repositories

  Ebola and

  human relationship to

  malaria and

  archaea

  Ardipithecus ramidus

  arenaviruses

  Aum Shinrikyo cult

  Australia

  colonization of

  autism

  Ayala, Francisco

  baboons

  bacteria

  in human body

  mobility of

  obesity and

  viruses to control

  Bacteroidetes

  Bangladesh

  Barcode of Life Database

  Barker, G.

  Barré-Sinoussi, Françoise

  basenjis

  basic reproductive number (R0)

  bats

  Ebola and

  mobility of

  Nipah virus and

  rabies and

  as reservoir species

  SARS and

  Beijerinck, Martinus

  Bergh, Oivind

  big data

  bioerror

  bioinformatics

  biological magnification

  bioterror

  BioVex

  bipolar disorder

  bird flu. See H5N1

  birds

  Birx, Debbi

  blood banks

  blood factors, pooling of

  blood transfusions

  bonobos

  Boonmanuch, Kaptan

  Borneo

  Bosi, Edwin

  botulinum toxin

  Boupda, Alexis

  bovine spongiform encelphalopathy (BSE, mad cow disease)

  Brilliant, Larry

  British Royal Society

  Broad Street cholera outbreak (London)

  Brock, Pope

  Brown, Pat

  Brownstein, John

  Burke, Don

  bushmeat. See also hunting; wild animals

  call data records

  camelpox

  camels

  Cameroon

  Campo Ma’an National Park

  cancer. See also specific types

  SV40 and

  viruses causing

  virotherapy for

  cannibalism

  Carr, Jean

  Carrel, Alexis

  Carroll, Dennis

  case identification

  Catching Fire (Wrangham)

  caterpillars

  cell-based microbes

  cell cultures on chips

  cell phones

  cellular life

  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

  Global AIDS Program

  Global Disease Detection and Emergency Response Division

  H1N1 control room

  Retrovirology Branch

  central Africa

  central nervous system

  cervical cancer

  Chagas disease

  Champsaur, Félicien

  Charlatan (Brock)

  Chernobyl meltdown

  chimpanzees

  anthrax and

  current population of

  Ebola and

  HIV and />
  human relationship to

  hunting and

  malaria and

  organ transplants and

  roads and

  China

  Chlamydia pneumoniae

  cholera (Vibrio cholerae)

  Christankis, Nicholas

  chronic diseases

  chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)

  chronic microbes

  chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis)

  circumcision

  cirrhosis

  civets

  Clayton, Dale

  clinics, monitoring of

  clotting factor VIII

  coconuts

  cold sore

  Collins, Bill

  common ancestor

  common cold

  condoms

  cooking

  corn

  cornea transplants

  coronavirus

  cowpox (Variolae vaccinae)

  cows. See also bovine spongiform encelphalopathy

  Cox, Janet

  “crazy cat lady” syndrome

  Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, variant (vCJD)

  Cristianini, Nello

  critical populations, monitoring

  cross-species transmission. See also specific diseases and species

  as beginning of pandemics

  domestic animals and

  herpes B and

  HIV and

  hunting and

  malaria and

  organ transplants and

  crustaceans

  Currie, Cameron

  cytomegalovirus

  Darwin, Charles

  Daszak, Peter

  Deblauwe, Isra

  Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

  Defense Department (DoD)

  Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)

  deforestation

  Delwart, Eric

  Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

  dengue virus

  Denialism (Specter)

  Denys, Jean-Baptiste

  DeRisi, Joe

  De Rosa, Peter

  DeVore, Irv

  diabetes, type I

  Diamond, Jared

  diarrhea

  Diffo, Joseph LeDoux

 

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