MACHINA

by Sebastian Marshall

  The situation against the Imagawa was desperate. The seeming weakness and foppishness of the Oda Clan had brought an invasion of overwhelming force down upon them.

  Here is a translation of the primary source, from the Japanese, emphasis added –

  "On May 17th, Imagawa Yoshimoto set up camp at Kutsukake. The night of the 18th, the Imagawa sent supplies to Odaka Castle with no Oda allies coming, the flow of the morning tide, and it was certain that the Oda forts will be attacked. Messengers from Sakuma Morishige and Oda Genba reported to Nobunaga. However, that evening Nobunaga and his retainers talked about various topics, but nothing on military matters. Then it was late and Nobunaga sent his retainers home. His retainers said, 'When luck runs out, the mirror of one's wisdom clouds up too.' As anticipated that night, more news from Sakuma Morishige and Oda Genba. "Both Fort Marune and Washizu are under attack by the Imagawa.' Then Nobunaga sang and danced to Atsumori.

  Man's life is fifty years.

  In the universe what is it but dream or illusion?

  Is there any who is born and does not die?

  Then Nobunaga shouted 'Blow the conch horn and bring my armor.' Nobunaga put on his armor and helmet, ate his meal standing, and went off to war.”

  ***

  THE DEATH POEM

  The Westerners here might miss a subtle nuance, that native Japanese would certainly not miss.

  Man's life is fifty years.

  In the universe what is it but dream or illusion?

  Is there any who is born and does not die?

  This is a Japanese death poem.

  Nobunaga was 26 years old.

  And then he says, blow the war horn to our troops – and bring my armor.

  ***

  NOBUNAGA’S ASSESSMENT

  Last chapter, “Vantages #1: Why and How,” we discussed the critical importance of separating out Meaning of Life, Quality of Life, and Means when you’re doing your assessments.

  We cannot know Nobunaga’s mind – we cannot say with certainty whether he was a desperate gambler who got very lucky, or whether he masterfully played a very dangerous situation he inherited to perfection.

  We can say, with certainty, that the Oda were one of the weaker clans in an era without much humanity, an era where weakness invited annihilation.

  Nobunaga apparently felt, on the deepest levels, that he had a duty to unify Japan. Submitting to Yoshimoto Imagawa and begging for mercy was not in the cards for him.

  Why? It may have been philosophy, Nobunaga’s meaning of life. Perhaps he just felt, deeply in his bones, that this path could not be walked.

  Or perhaps it was due to Means – perhaps his assessment was that he and his senior retainers would be jailed or killed by the Imagawa if he submitted to Yoshimoto.

  Regardless – Nobunaga’s assessment was that submitting to the Imagawa was an unacceptable option.

  It was "below the bar."

  ***

  LORD NOBUNAGA, THIS IS MADNESS

  Bravery and honor were, of course, of paramount importance to the samurai.

  Some of Nobunaga’s retainers wished surrender, but many were up for fighting – and yet, they failed to do the math of the battlefield. Digging in for a defensive fight would be fatal.

  And yet, it occurred to not a single one of his retainers to launch a counterattack.

  This story is famous in Japanese lore, here is one telling of it –

  “Imagawa Yoshimoto, leading an army said to hold 40,000 men, set forth to march on Kyoto. In doing this, he sent his men through Owari, Oda territory, and captured the border fortresses of Wahizu and Marune. Because of his sheer numbers, his army took them with relative ease. After those short battles, they set up camp in the wooded gorge Dengaku-Hazama. This was all reported to Oda Nobunaga, who sent troops to Zenshoji, a temple a short distance from the gorge.

  "Lord Nobunaga, this is madness!" Katsuie shouted. "We cannot attack. We must stay here and hold our ground. We can sit this out - a frontal assault is suicide!" Nobunaga looked from Katsuie to his advisers, contemplating his actions, though not yet speaking. "This entire battle is suicide, Katsuie," spoke Sado, one of Nobunaga's advisers. "Lord Nobunaga, you must realize that we cannot win this. Spare your men's lives, surrender here and now." And then there was quiet. Nobunaga stood before his men, weighing their options. But it would seem surrender was not a choice he was willing to make.

  [Nobunaga replies,] "Imagawa has 40,000 men marching toward this place? I don't believe that. He 'only' has 25,000 soldiers. Yes, that is still too many. So, Sado, you want me to surrender. What if we do surrender? Will you get content with losing your life that way? Or what if we hold on like Katsuie wants me to? What if we stay here in this castle, lock it up, and wait until the Imagawas lose appetite and stop the siege and go home? We will be able to prolong our lives for five or ten days, and what we cannot defend will still be undefendable. We are at the bottom of the pit, you know. And our fate is interesting. Of course the misery is too great, too. But this is how I see it: this is a chance in a lifetime. I can't afford to miss this. Do you really want to spend your entire lives praying for longevity? We were born in order to die! Whoever is with me, come to the battlefield tomorrow morning. Whoever is not, just stay wherever you are and watch me win it!"”

  ***

  WITH THAT, IT WAS SETTLED

  “With that, it was settled. Few of the men were reluctant to continue, and those who would stay behind would each be given a banner to make the Imagawa believe the temple still held the Oda's main force. With a main force of about 1,500 men, Nobunaga set out through the forest, heading to the rear of the Imagawa camps undetected. He had also dispatched couriers to the Takeda, as well as sent for help from the Chosokabe, and hire a band of mercenaries days before in preparation for this attack. Now was the perfect time to act, seeing as a storm was passing through, and their advance would be hidden by nature itself.

  "Brave warriors," Nobunaga would begin once his entire force was gathered, allies and all. "You make a bold statement here today to stand with a force seeking to defeat the Imagawa. And for that, I thank you. But, know this: we can afford no mistakes. The Imagawa could overrun us given the smallest chance, so we must do this carefully. A force will be dispatched to capture the Imagawa supply depot to the east, and from there you will move to the south to capture the entire eastern border of their camp. A second force will move to the west, taking an armory and securing their weapons. As soon as the storm settles, I will lead the main force and we will charge down the mountains straight for the commander's camp, and I will take Yoshimoto's head." Nobunaga clenched his fist tightly, a small puff of dark energy passing from his hand. "You must act in stealth, men. Remember this. If the Imagawa are alerted to our presence, this is a losing battle. The element of surprise is our most powerful weapon."”

  ***

  A VIOLENT STORM BREWS

  This is where we must, once again, ask whether Nobunaga was crazy and lucky – or crazy like a fox.

  Dave LaSpina recounts in “The Battle of Okehazama,”

  “The size of his army grew to about 2000 as [Nobunaga] rode along towards the Imagawa. They set camp around 10am at Zenshoji and Nobunaga ordered his men to raise high and display all their flags and banners and to construct straw men to make a dummy army.

  On the other side, Yoshimoto was contemptuous of Nobunaga’s army and allowed his men to enjoy themselves; they set to feasting and drinking to future victories and as a result didn’t keep a vigilant watch. Yoshimoto himself was enjoying Noh choruses while inspecting heads and declaring loudly that no one, not even God or Devil, could stop his army.

  Nobunaga knew the area well so he was able to avoid what few look-outs there were. His men found the Imagawa camp.

  Luck was on Nobunaga’s side in the form of the weather. The day had been stifling hot and just around noon the sky clouded, blackened, and let loose a giant, violent storm. This helped screen their movements as they gathered in the hi
lls above the unsuspecting Imagawa force.

  As soon as the storm died down a little, the men rushed down the slope in a headlong charge.”

  And it concludes…

  “The storm, their drunkeness, and this sudden attack left the Imagawa men completely confused. They stampeded in all directions, leaving Yoshimoto unprotected.

  So sudden and unexpected was the attack, in fact, that Yoshimoto didn’t realize what was happening and thought the commotion was only a squabble among his men.

  He shouted an order at one of his retainers—little realizing it wasn’t one of his retainers. It was in fact one of Nobunaga’s men!

  The man, Hattori Kazutada, immediately recongized the lord of the Imagawa and was amazed to find him unprotected. He drew his spear and took aim.

  Yoshimoto was quick; he instantly drew his sword and sliced through the spear, cutting the shaft in two and continuing his swing so that it gashed his opponent’s knees. But that was the last thing he would ever do: as he prepared to deal the killing blow, a second of Nobunaga’s men, Mōri Shinsuke, came up behind him and took his head.”

  ***

  AFTERMATH

  Wikipedia: Battle of Okehazama –

  “Date: May–June, 1560

  Location: Dengaku-hazama, Owari Province

  Result: Decisive Oda Victory (Imagawa killed in action)

  Territorial changes: Imagawa threat to Owari Province removed”

  The Oda troops rampaged through the Imagawa high command, killing Imagawa and his chief retainers before they could regroup.

  The Imagawa forces, confused and dismayed, surrendered… and accepted Oda Nobunaga as their Lord –

  “With their leader dead, and all but two of the senior officers killed, the remaining Imagawa officers joined Oda's army.

  Soon the Imagawa faction was no more and Oda Nobunaga was "in the front rank of military power."”

  ***

  MINOR LESSON

  There is a minor lesson here, and a major lesson.

  The minor lesson is somewhat of a throwaway, but interesting to muse upon –

  Was Oda Nobunaga’s foppish conduct a ruse?

  We cannot say for sure; I’m not advancing this position as a certainty, but rather as something worth thinking about.

  Nobunaga knew he was badly outnumbered, weak, and surrounded by enemies.

  Enemy scouts would constantly be sizing up positions, and the Oda position looked weak and pathetic.

  But then, the Imagawa forces took them lightly, thinking the battle would be a walkover. Nobunaga’s lax, laxadaisical, foppish, seemingly disinterested conduct had led him to be underestimated.

  Luck played a role. Without those blacked skies, likely the Oda’s daring counterattack raid would have failed. But certainly, with merely decent military discipline and appropriate placement of sentries and scouts, the raid would not have happened.

  Imagawa Yoshimoto lost his head for his overconfidence.

  ***

  MAJOR LESSON

  But that is the minor lesson.

  The major lesson, again, echoes Dalio’s Principles –

  “You need to be able to perceive if things are above the bar (i.e., good enough) or below the bar (i.e., not good enough), and you need to make sure your people can as well.”

  For all readers, this is easy enough to perceive in peacetime. You read the words on paper and they look correct.

  Yes, if things are below the bar, we need to know that.

  In crisis, this is much harder. People can so easily lose their mind in a crisis.

  But the hard implication of this lesson is what it means for naturally conservative and incremental-gain type people.

  Our readers are a mix, you know: some of them are playing high-stakes, do-or-die games in life; others are incrementally building a fantastic life.

  We will discuss this further in a couple chapters, when we investigate Classical and Romantic Play, but for now, this is important –

  Even if you are normally steadfastly incremental, if incrementalism will result in certain failure, you must make the best bold bet you can that gives a chance at success.

  Many otherwise outstanding people are uncomfortable with uncertainty, when even the best plan might lead to failure.

  This was the position of Nobunaga’s officers and retainers. Knowing that a raid would most likely fail, they advocated taking a defensive position of guaranteed failure.

  Of course, life is usually not so dramatic as Okehazama; it is also foolish and unwise to sell everything out for a desperate bet when you are not forced to take one.

  But from time to time, occasionally, any of us might be faced with a situation where the “sure thing” is… guaranteed failure.

  If all defensive, conservative, and incremental plans will produce a “below the bar” result – guaranteed failure – then you are forced into the unpleasant choice between guaranteed failure and taking a gamble and relying on the hands of luck and chance.

  You never want to be in a position where luck and chance will decide the outcome.

  But sometimes, you will wind up in that position.

  On those times, it is critical to assess and re-assess your options. If all steadfast courses lead to guaranteed failure, it is time to take the highest percentage of success with whatever is the best available bold action.

  ***

  MUSING AND MEDITATING ON THE TOPIC

  Muse and think some on your ability to assess “above the bar” and “below the bar” – and think, now in peacetime, how you will react if all conservative measures guarantee a “below the bar” result. It is well-worth meditating on.

  We will still be with Oda Nobunaga next chapter – he became the “First Great Unifier” of Japan; we will get to know him some more, good and bad. Sooner or later, his luck runs out – but not until he had achieved the first key part of his destiny.

  Oh, and David LaSpina finishes his piece on the Battle of Okehazama with an aside –

  By the way, remember his childhood nickname “The fool of Owari”? Later in life he was given a new nickname: “The Demon King”.

  Vantages #3: Morality on the March

  YOU'RE BEING HEARTLESS, MY LORD

  "You're being heartless, my lord. It's not that we don't understand, but when you've given us an outrageous order—to burn down Mount Hiei, a place respected for hundreds of years as holy ground dedicated to the peace and preservation of the country—as your retainers—and precisely because we are your retainers—there is all the more reason why we should not obey you," Sakuma Nobumori said.

  A do-or-die expression showed clearly on Nobumori's face. If he had not been prepared to die on the spot, he could not have said this to Nobunaga. Especially the way Nobunaga was looking now. Although it was always rather difficult to speak frankly to their lord, today Nobunaga resembled a demon wielding a fiery sword.

  "Silence! Silence!" Nobunaga roared, quieting Takei Sekian and Akechi Mitsuhide, who were about to back up Nobumori. "Have you not felt indignation when you watched the insurrections and this disgraceful state of affairs? Monks transgress the Laws of the Buddha, stir up the common people, store wealth and weapons, and spread rumors; under the guise of religion, they are nothing more than self-serving agitators."

  "We do not object to punishing these excesses. But it is impossible, in a single day, to reform a religion in which all men fervently believe and which has been granted special authority," Nobumori argued.

  "What good is that kind of common sense?" Nobunaga exploded. "It's because we've had eight hundred years of common sense that no one has been able to change the situation, despite people's lamenting over the church's corruption and degeneracy. Even His Majesty the Emperor Shirakawa said that there were three things over which he had no control: dice, the waters of the Kamo River, and the warrior-monks of Mount Hiei. What role in the peace and preservation of the country did this mountain play during the years of civil war? Has it given peace of mind o
r strength to the common people?" Nobunaga suddenly waved his right hand to the side. "For hundreds of years, when disasters have occurred, the monks have done nothing more than protect their own privileges. With the money donated by the credulous masses, they build stone walls and gates that would befit a fortress and inside they hoard guns and spears. Worse, the monks flaunt their vows openly by eating meat and indulging in sexual intercourse. Let's not even speak of the decadence of Buddhist scholarship. Where is the sin in burning down something like that?"

  ***

  BUDDHISM’S MIGRATION NORTHWARDS

  The above excerpt is from one of the finest modern Japanese novelists, Eiji Yoshikawa, in his masterpiece Taiko, a historical fiction cataloguing the second-to-last act of the great drama that were the Japanese Sengoku Civil Wars.