The Elephant Game

by Andrew Watts

  Susan was all business, as usual. “Okay—let’s begin.”

  They went around the room, each person responsible for a different part of the weekly update. This group contained a Chinese military expert, an NSA analyst, a representative who specialized in South America, and a nuclear weapons expert.

  “We still haven’t seen any change in Ecuador.”

  “Still? What the hell?”

  “Yup. The Chinese troops have not returned to China, as promised. The planes have stopped bringing in more of them. So at least the numbers aren’t growing. But the troop strength is still around two thousand.”

  David said, “What are they doing?”

  “They’re still training, as far as we can tell. Rifle shoots. Field exercises with the local military units.”

  Susan said, “Remind me. The State Department put that in the terms of our agreement with China, right? Full withdrawal of all military forces in Ecuador. I’m not making that up?”

  The South America specialist nodded. “That’s correct.”

  “Is State aware that they aren’t yet in compliance?”

  “We’ve made sure to share this information with our State Department rep on the SILVERSMITH team.”

  “Good. Let me know what happens there, please. What’s the status of their naval vessels?”

  “We got the name of the one that was completely sunk. It was…”—he checked his computer screen—“the Lanzhou. The other three ships have either sailed under their own power or been towed to Panama City for repairs. They’re there right now.”

  The naval battle in the Eastern Pacific was only two weeks old. The resulting diplomatic chaos was expected.

  Jinshan and Song were in jail, and China was retreating, begging forgiveness from allied nations in private, and spinning an acceptable story to their citizens on state media. Chinese citizens were told that the sunken ships had resulted from a tragic and unauthorized international training accident, with a jailed politician (Cheng Jinshan) and a navy admiral (Song) solely responsible.

  Full details of new Chinese reparations and punishments were still being worked out by the diplomats. But the United States had announced certain requirements on Chinese military units in the Eastern Pacific immediately.

  “Our inspectors are in Panama?”

  “They are. They arrived last weekend. As stipulated, US State Department and DoD personnel are overseeing the Chinese naval vessels while they are in port. No Chinese sailors are allowed off the pier, except to go to the airport as they are flown back to China.”

  The door opened and a uniformed General Schwartz walked in. “Good morning, team.”

  Susan rose from her seat at the head of the table. “General, I didn’t realize you were going to make it this morning. Would you like to sit here?”

  “Canceled meeting. And no. I’ll humbly accept the chair closest to the screen so that my old man eyes can actually see what we’re discussing.”

  General Chester Schwartz was a US Army three-star, a Ranger, and now Associate Director of the CIA for Military Affairs. Director Buckingham had asked him to be the SILVERSMITH team’s “sponsor.” He was supposed to be informed of everything they knew and to empower them to cut through any bureaucratic barriers as they arose.

  Over the past few weeks, he had also sent Chase Manning to several brand-new military commands to hand-deliver their orders. General Schwartz had worked with the Pentagon to preemptively deploy several special operations teams and high-tech military units in case they were needed for an immediate response to Chinese activity.

  It was a good thing he had done so. Chase had ended up working closely with a MARSOC unit in Ecuador to steal a Chinese crypto key. This turned out to be the crucial piece of evidence that helped convince the Chinese president that Jinshan was really maneuvering PLA military units without his consent. Other military units that General Schwartz helped to activate included the newly formed Ford Carrier Strike Group. The Ford CSG proved instrumental in helping to defend the USS Farragut against the four Chinese warships in the Eastern Pacific.

  Susan smiled and sat down. “We were talking about Chinese military status in Latin America.”

  General Schwartz said, “I read a report yesterday saying that the PLA numbers in Manta are unchanged. Is that still the case?”

  “Yes, General. The Chinese are bringing back naval personnel from their wounded ships, now docked in Panama City. But there’s no change to the ground troops in Ecuador.”

  The general frowned. “So why would they be following the agreement with regard to the PLA Navy ships, but not be recalling their troops in Manta?”

  David said, “Those Navy ships are worthless now. They’ve suffered severe damage. And there are US inspectors monitoring everything in Panama. That isn’t the case in Ecuador. Those PLA troops are still training. And their effectiveness hasn’t changed over the past two weeks.”

  “What are you suggesting?” asked the NSA analyst. “That they are still up to something? The whistle’s been blown, David. There’s no element of surprise anymore.”

  Susan didn’t look happy. “What level of readiness are we seeing across the rest of the Chinese military?”

  The Chinese military expert said, “The coastal naval activity has subsided. Submarines and ships have been called into port. It’s the lowest PLA Navy activity level we’ve seen in the past five years. Army and air force units on the coast have also hunkered down. Air force flights have all but stopped. We have noticed more strategic bomber activity further inland, near Chengdu. Some exercise, we think.”

  “Don’t forget to tell her about the 41s,” said the nuclear weapons expert.

  “What’s he talking about?” said Susan.

  The Chinese military analyst said, “Before you got here, we were going over the Chinese land-based nuclear weapons movements. The Dongfeng-41 is their newest ICBM. They’ve recently started deploying them along the Russian border.”

  David said, “Isn’t that a good thing? They’re keeping Russia in check, and the nukes are farther away from us, right?”

  The nuclear weapons expert shook his head. “That’s not the way it works.”

  The Chinese military analyst said, “The Chinese have had ICBMs that were capable of reaching all of Russia for more than a decade. But these Dongfeng-41s are new. And the fact that they are stuck up there against the Russian border actually makes them more vulnerable to a Russian strike. But it does make it a lot harder for an American unit to attack it. Oh, and what makes the 41s special? The 41s are able to hit anywhere in the United States.”

  “Haven’t the Chinese already had this capability?”

  General Schwartz said, “The Dongfeng-5, right? Isn’t that the name of the Chinese ICBM that could hit anywhere in the US?”

  The analyst replied, “The Dongfeng-5 has been around since the 1980s, and yes, it could reach the US. But it was liquid-fueled. So that means it would have to go through a long fueling process before they could launch it. We would see that and respond accordingly. So the Dongfeng-5 wasn’t a good first-strike weapon. Then they came up with the Dongfeng-31 in the 2000s, and its alpha version could hit the US. But it had a poor payload capability. Most of the members of my assessment team believe that the 41 is the first real game changer for them. It puts their land-based ICBMs on par with US missiles. Now they can finally hit anything in the US, and execute the attack on short notice.”

  General Schwartz turned to look at the map on the screen. It showed a flat display of the earth, with winding lines to show the different missile ranges launched from China. “So, you’re saying that the recent deployment of this Dongfeng-41 to the Russian border represents an increased nuclear threat to the United States.”

  “Yes, sir, most certainly. Because they deployed these ICBMs far away from the coast, near the Russian border, it would take a long time for us to reach them.”

  “Long time, as in…?”

  “Depends on the strike method, sir, bu
t assuming that we were using ballistic missiles ourselves, twenty plus minutes to reach the target.”

  “And twenty minutes is a long time?”

  “It’s a long enough time for them to realize that we are attacking and respond accordingly, sir. Especially with their island bases and the air defense they’ve got stacked up. They have three islands in the Spratleys, and one in the Parcels, that they’ve converted into military bases, with runways long enough to land anything in their arsenal, fuel and munitions, and SAM batteries. They have the South China Sea dominated with anti-air capability.”

  General Schwartz looked at Susan. “I feel like I’m going back in time—back to the good old days of the Soviet threat. Thank you all for this warm feeling.”

  Susan looked at the analysts. “That’s one aspect of their triad. What about submarine and air-launched-nuclear capability? Have we noticed any change in their strategic air and submarine missile boat activity? And how big of a threat are those assets?”

  The nuclear weapons analyst said, “The Chinese nuclear missile boats aren’t nearly as capable as our own. They only have a few type 94s. That’s the closest thing they have to our Ohio-class subs. But theirs are noisy. We generally know where they are at all times. As for the air component, they do have over one hundred and twenty strategic bombers. But they aren’t able to reach the continental US. The Chinese are reportedly working on a competitor to the B-2 Spirit, but we haven’t seen it fly yet.”

  The Chinese military expert said, “Near the coast, as we previously went over, military activity has been kept to a minimum. But PLA Air Force activity is high at many of the inland bases. Susan, they’re still training around the clock over there. Maybe the Chinese president’s orders haven’t trickled down yet, or…”

  David said, “Or, maybe they’re getting another set of orders.”

  David sat alone in the CIA cafeteria. He had brought his own lunch. Ham and cheese sandwich, a plastic bag of yellow corn tortilla chips, and a Tupperware container of carrot sticks.

  “Mr. Manning, how are you liking the new job?” General Schwartz stood over him. Like the trained Ranger that he was, he had approached with speed and stealth.

  David started to stand.

  “Please, keep your seat. Mind if I join you?”

  “Of course, sir. And the job is going well, sir, thank you.” David wondered if he was using too many “sirs.” Probably his Navy training, or his admiral father’s discipline shining through.

  The general sat in the empty chair across from David. They were the only ones at their table.

  “Susan speaks highly of you. And you’ve caught the director’s eye. I might not be a CIA guy, but I’ve learned a thing or two about upward mobility in my day. The director of your agency is probably a good one to impress.”

  David reddened. “I hope they are happy with my work. To be honest, it is somewhat similar to the type of research I had done at In-Q-Tel.”

  “Really? I thought you researched technology there.” The general took a bite of his meal, a spring mix salad with slices of grapes, walnuts, and croutons. Everyone was a healthy eater nowadays.

  “That’s right, sir. I researched technology. Weapons and weapons systems. Sometimes cyberweapons. Sometimes aircraft or missiles. It was interesting. I got to be a jack of all trades. But in order to do the job well, we had to research what our adversaries were capable of—and what they were working on.”

  The general nodded. “I see.”

  “In a way, I’m doing the same job now. The only difference is the timeline.”

  “How’s that?”

  “At In-Q-Tel, I was looking at what our potential enemies might be doing in the next five to ten years. Here, I’m looking at what they might be doing in the next few days or weeks. It’s the same game, just a different time scale that I’m looking out over.”

  General Schwartz smiled. “Strategy versus tactics. Some would argue that the two are the same, just on a different scale.”

  They ate their lunch and made small talk for a while. David told the general about his sister, Victoria, and how she was still deployed to the Eastern Pacific. “She isn’t sure when they’ll return home.”

  “No, I imagine she wouldn’t be. My guess is very few people know the answer to that question right now.”

  David said, “I can’t help feeling that we’re all waiting for something, sir.”

  “For the other shoe to drop? I think a lot of us have the same feeling. We were just attacked by the only military on the planet that outsizes our own. Whatever the politicians say they intend to do, history would demonstrate that hostilities would increase, not decrease, after a string of events like we just had.”

  “I agree, sir. In my research, I’ve seen a few indicators that give me concern.”

  “Like what?” The flag officer checked his wristwatch. “Care to show me?”

  The general was easy to speak to. He didn’t have that stuffy, all-knowing manner of conversation that many senior leaders did. His speech pattern was no-nonsense. Gruff at times. But mostly friendly and down to earth. Like he hadn’t forgotten what it was like to be working in the trenches.

  David didn’t want to overstep his authority. Susan was his direct superior, and she reported to the general. But since the general and he were already talking…

  Schwartz smiled. “What’s the matter?”

  “Nothing, General. I just would have prepared something for you if I’d known—”

  “Yeah, I know that. But we need to get away from that bullshit. I don’t want you guys having three meetings of preparation before you have one meeting with me or the director. We just don’t have the time.” He stood up, using a napkin to wipe his hands. “Now let’s go.”

  They walked back through the hallways of the CIA headquarters to the SILVERSMITH team spaces. David took a seat at his cubicle, and the general pulled up a chair from the empty desk next to his.

  “Now you guys just told me that you think the Chinese might not be fully complying with their stand-down claims. That right?”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “So what else might we look at to verify what their true intentions are?”

  David said, “Sir, I’ve been looking at a few things. Leading indicators, I call them.”

  “Leading indicators for what?”

  David looked uneasy. “I don’t want to get ahead of myself, sir.”

  “Son, in the past few weeks, you have been on the receiving end of a Chinese espionage operation, and our nation has been openly attacked by Chinese military and cyber assets. You are not getting ahead of yourself. In my opinion, we’re all playing catch-up.”

  David turned to his computer and opened a folder. He pointed to the screen. “This is something I’ve been looking at. When Susan and I briefed you earlier, we told you that we were seeing mixed messages from the Chinese military analysis. Some military assets are standing down. Some are increasing their levels of activity.”

  “Tracking.”

  It took David a second to register that this was Army slang for “I understand.”

  David said, “So I wanted to check out some leading indicators that might be harder to conceal. Leading indicators that would tell us if they were preparing for a large-scale war.”

  The general sat forward in his chair, looking at David’s screen. “What am I looking at here?”

  “Blood bags, sir.”

  “Blood bags?”

  “Yes, sir. Chinese orders of blood bags.” David moved his mouse and clicked on another file. “And this one is for a refrigeration unit. A specially made one that keeps blood and plasma at a specific temperature during storage. The NSA provided me with internal company documents that showed orders to the manufacturing plant. They don’t match the company’s sales numbers.”

  “So that means they are trying to conceal something?”

  “Possibly, sir. That is my hypothesis. It’s a Chinese medical device company that is making a huge qua
ntity of blood bags and refrigeration units, and not reporting it. And what’s more, this specific style of blood bag is one that their civilian hospitals don’t use. It’s only used in military hospitals, and in the field.”

  “Can you tell who made the orders?”

  “No, sir. These orders are only found on the internal network at the manufacturing plant. No buyer is listed.”

  “Sounds fishy.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “Am I reading these numbers right? It looks like the orders have increased dramatically over the past week.”

  “Yes, sir.” David eyed the general. “You are reading the numbers right.”

  “How did you come up with this? What made you look at blood bags?”

  “We—me and some of the people on my team—did a brainstorm session on what other items might need to be prepped if the Chinese were about to follow through on the Red Cell plans. When the US military began its surge in Iraq, and when we made several other large-scale troop increases over the past few decades—periods when this type of medical transportation technology was available—orders for blood bags went way up. We had a few mathematicians look at our data—American military data—and we came up with an equation. Now, there are several variables where we don’t know if we have the inputs right. But we can extrapolate a range…”

  “A range of what, Manning?”

  “How many troops they intend to move into a combat zone, sir.”

  The general sat back in his chair, his face showing much more interest now. “And what number did you come up with?”

  David lowered his voice, a bit embarrassed at the assessment and how crazy it might sound. “Sir, when we use the data from American military movements and input these recent Chinese medical device orders into the equation, we come up with ten, sir.”

  “Ten?”

  “Yes, sir.”

  The general sounded confused. “Ten thousand troops doesn’t sound like—”

  “Ten million, sir. These numbers correspond with preps to place ten million Chinese troops into a combat zone.”