In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan
Page 1
In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan
Seth G. Jones
A definitive account of the American experience in Afghanistan from the rise of the Taliban to the depths of the insurgency.
After the swift defeat of the Taliban in 2001, American optimism has steadily evaporated in the face of mounting violence; a new “war of a thousand cuts” has now brought the country to its knees. In the Graveyard of Empires is a political history of Afghanistan in the “Age of Terror” from 2001 to 2009, exploring the fundamental tragedy of America’s longest war since Vietnam.
After a brief survey of the great empires in Afghanistan—the campaigns of Alexander the Great, the British in the era of Kipling, and the late Soviet Union—Seth G. Jones examines the central question of our own war: how did an insurgency develop? Following the September 11 attacks, the United States successfully overthrew the Taliban regime. It established security throughout the country—killing, capturing, or scattering most of al Qa’ida’s senior operatives—and Afghanistan finally began to emerge from more than two decades of struggle and conflict. But Jones argues that as early as 2001 planning for the Iraq War siphoned off resources and talented personnel, undermining the gains that had been made. After eight years, he says, the United States has managed to push al Qa’ida’s headquarters about one hundred miles across the border into Pakistan, the distance from New York to Philadelphia.
While observing the tense and often adversarial relationship between NATO allies in the Coalition, Jones—who has distinguished himself at RAND and was recently named byEsquireas one of the “Best and Brightest” young policy experts—introduces us to key figures on both sides of the war. Harnessing important new research and integrating thousands of declassified government documents, Jones then analyzes the insurgency from a historical and structural point of view, showing how a rising drug trade, poor security forces, and pervasive corruption undermined the Karzai government, while Americans abandoned a successful strategy, failed to provide the necessary support, and allowed a growing sanctuary for insurgents in Pakistan to catalyze the Taliban resurgence.
Examining what has worked thus far—and what has not—this serious and important book underscores the challenges we face in stabilizing the country and explains where we went wrong and what we must do if the United States is to avoid the disastrous fate that has befallen many of the great world powers to enter the region. 12 maps and charts
From Publishers Weekly
Since 2001, RAND Corporation political scientist Jones (The Rise of European Security Cooperation) has been observing the reinvigorated insurgency in Afghanistan and weighing the potency of its threat to the country's future and American interests in the region. Jones finds the roots of the re-emergence in the expected areas: the deterioration of security after the ousting of the Taliban regime in 2002, the U.S.'s focus on Iraq as its foreign policy priority and Pakistan's role as a haven for insurgents. He revisits Afghan history, specifically the invasions by the British in the mid- and late-19th century and the Russians in the late-20th to rue how little the U.S. has learned from these two previous wars. He sheds light on why Pakistan—a consistent supporter of the Taliban—continues to be a key player in the region's future. Jones makes important arguments for the inclusion of local leaders, particularly in rural regions, but his diligent panorama of the situation fails to consider whether the war in Afghanistan is already lost.
Review
“A useful and generally lively account of what can go wrong when outsiders venture onto the Afghan landscape.” (Steven Simon - *Foreign Affairs* )
“This is a serious work that should be factored in as a new policy in Afghanistan evolves.” (Jay Freeman - *Booklist* )
“Offers a valuable window onto how officials have understood the military campaign.” (Robert D. Crews - *San Francisco Chronicle* )
“[An] excellent book.” (James Blitz - *Financial Times* )
“How we got to where we are in Afghanistan.” (Matthew Kaminski - *Wall Street Journal* )
“[Zeroes] in on what went awry after America’s successful routing of the Taliban in late 2001.” (Michiko Kakutani - *The New York Times* )
“A blueprint for winning in a region that has historically brought mighty armies to their knees.” (Doug Childers - *Richmond Times-Dispatch* )
“Seth Jones . . . has an anthropologist’s feel for a foreign society, a historian’s intuition for long-term trends, and a novelist’s eye for the telling details that illuminate a much larger story. If you read just one book about the Taliban, terrorism, and the United States, this is the place to start.” (Jeremi Suri, author of *Henry Kissinger and the American Century* )
“A timely and important work, without peer in terms of both its scholarship and the author’s intimate knowledge of the country, the insurgency threatening it, and the challenges in defeating it.” (Bruce Hoffman, Georgetown University, author of *Inside Terrorism* )
“A deeply researched and well-analyzed account of the failures of American policies in Afghanistan,In the Graveyard of Empireswill be mandatory reading for policymakers from Washington to Kabul.” (Peter Bergen, author ofHoly War, Inc.and *The Osama bin Laden I Know* )
“Seth Jones has combined forceful narrative with careful analysis, illustrating the causes of this deteriorating situation, and recommending sensible, feasible steps to reverse the escalating violence.” (James Dobbins, author of *After the Taliban: Nation Building in Afghanistan* )
“Seth G. Jones’s book provides a vivid sense of just how paltry and misguided the American effort has been.…In the Graveyard of Empireswill help to show what might still be done to build something enduring in Afghanistan and finally allow the U.S. to go home.” (Dexter Filkins - *The New Republic* )
IN THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES
ALSO BY SETH G. JONES
The Rise of European Security Cooperation
IN THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES
America’s War in Afghanistan
SETH G. JONES
W. W. NORTON & COMPANY
New York London
Copyright © 2009 by Seth G. Jones
All rights reserved
ISBN: 978-0-393-07142-9
To those
struggling for peace
in Afghanistan
LIST OF MAPS AND GRAPHS
Figure 1.1
Map of Afghanistan
Figure 2.1
Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, 1979
Figure 4.1
Taliban Conquest of Afghanistan
Figure 6.1
Key Engagements against Taliban and al Qa’ida
Figure 6.2
Pakistan’s Tribal Agencies
Figure 7.1
Peak International Military Presence Per Capita
Figure 7.2
Peak International Police Presence Per Capita
Figure 7.3
International Financial Assistance Per Capita over First Two Years
Figure 8.1
U.S. and Coalition Battlefield Geometry, May 2004
Figure 11.1
Opium Poppy Cultivation, 1991–2008
Figure 13.1
The Insurgent Fronts
Figure 14.1
Stages of NATO Expansion, 2007
CHRONOLOGY
1839–1842 First Anglo-Afghan War, which results in a crushing defeat for the British. The departing force is reduced from 16,000 to one British soldier.
1878–1880 Second Anglo-Afghan War culminates in the Battle of Kandahar, in which British forces decisively defeat Ayub Khan in September 1880.
1919 Third Anglo-Afghan War, which leads to the Treaty of Rawalpindi on August 8, recognizing Afghan independence.
1929 King Amanullah Khan, who had led Afghanistan to independence and attempted to modernize the country, is overthrown by Habibullah Kalakani, a Tajik. Kalikani is overthrown several months later, marking the start of a dynasty spanning five decades by the Pashtun Musahiban family. The first leader is Muhammad Nadir Shah.
1933 Upon the assassination of Muhammad Nadir Shah, his son, Zahir Shah, takes over at the age of nineteen, beginning one of Afghanistan’s longest periods of stability in recent times. For thirty years, however, Zahir Shah remains in the background while his relatives run the government.
1963 Zahir Shah takes control of Afghanistan and introduces an era of modernity and democratic freedom.
1973 On July 16, Zahir Shah is overthrown in a coup d’état engineered by his cousin, Daoud Khan, with support of the Afghan army.
1978 Afghan army and air force officers engineer a bloody coup on April 27 in the Afghan lunar month of Sawr, and Daoud Khan is assassinated. Power is transferred to Nur Mohammad Taraki, who establishes the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
1979 Nur Mohammad Taraki is arrested by his deputy, Hafizullah Amin, and executed. As instability grips the country, Soviet forces invade on Christmas Eve. On December 27, Soviet Special Forces and KGB storm the Presidential Palace, kill Hafizullah Amin, and install Babrak Karmal as president.
1986 Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev announces a partial withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. In November, the Soviets replace Babrak Karmal with Muhammad Najibullah, former head of the Afghan secret police.
1989 On February 15, the last Red Army units roll across the Termez Bridge from Afghanistan and return to the Soviet Union.
1992 The United States ends arms shipments to the Afghan government and militia groups. Afghan groups conduct Beirut-style street fighting in Kabul, destroying parts of the city. Over the next several years, fighting in Kabul reduces the city to rubble.
1994 Taliban forces take control of the southern town of Spin Boldak in October and capture Kandahar in November, beginning the Taliban takeover of most of Afghanistan.
1995 Taliban forces advance northwest and northeast from Kandahar, capturing Herat in September and moving toward Kabul.
1996 Mullah Muhammad Omar removes the cloak of the Prophet Muhammad from the Khirka Sharif shrine in Kandahar in April and appoints himself Amir al-Mu’minin (Commander of the Faithful). Kabul falls to the Taliban in September.
1998 Taliban forces conquer Mazar-e-Sharif in August and kill Iranian diplomats, leading Iran to mobilize nearly 200,000 troops for an invasion. But the United Nations helps broker a settlement. Also in August, the United States launches cruise missiles against al Qa’ida training camps in Khowst Province after al Qa’ida attacks the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya.
2000 Taliban forces capture the northern city of Taloqan and take control of most of Afghanistan.
September 2001 The commander of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah Massoud, is assassinated by al Qa’ida operatives on September 9. Two days later, al Qa’ida operatives hijack commercial planes in the United States and crash them into the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington, DC. A fourth plane crashes in a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. On September 26, a CIA team led by Gary Schroen, code-named Jawbreaker, lands in Afghanistan and begins the U.S. effort to overthrow the Taliban.
October 2001 The United States begins its bombing campaign against the Taliban on October 7.
November 2001 U.S. and Afghan forces conquer the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif on November 10, followed by Taloqan (November 11), Bamiyan (November 11), Herat (November 12), Kabul (November 13), Jalalabad (November 14), and Kunduz (November 26). At the end of November, the United States begins planning the war in Iraq.
December 2001 Afghan political leaders sign the Bonn Agreement on December 5, establishing a timetable for the creation of a representative government. The southern city of Kandahar falls to U.S. and Afghan forces on December 5–6, largely completing the overthrow of the Taliban regime. The United States narrowly misses killing Osama bin Laden during fighting in Tora Bora, near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
March 2002 U.S. and Coalition forces launch Operation Anaconda against al Qa’ida fighters and other militants in the Shah-i-kot Valley from March 2 to 16.
April 2002 In a speech at the Virginia Military Institute on April 17, President Bush urges a “Marshall Plan” for Afghanistan, calling for financial assistance.
June 2002 Afghanistan holds an emergency loya jirga, which leads to the selection of Hamid Karzai as head of a transitional government.
August 2002 Insurgents orchestrate a series of offensive operations in such provinces as Kandahar and Khowst. These attacks mark the beginning of the Taliban-led insurgency against Hamid Karzai’s government.
March 2003 Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, one of the prime organizers of the September 11 attacks, is captured in Pakistan on March 1. U.S. forces invade Iraq on March 20.
July 2003 U.S. and Afghan forces launch Operation Warrior Sweep in Paktia Province.
August 2003 U.S. Special Operations Forces and Afghan soldiers engage in intense fighting in Deh Chopan, Zabol Province.
November 2003 U.S. and Afghan forces launch Operation Mountain Resolve in Nuristan and Kunar Provinces.
December 2003 Afghanistan holds a constitutional loya jirga, which discusses a new constitution. In early January, after several weeks of debate, it approves the constitution.
April 2004 The Pakistani government reaches an agreement with the Taliban and local tribal leaders known as the Shakai Agreement. The Pakistani army promises to stay in cantonment areas, local militants agree not to attack Pakistani government officials, and all foreigners are required to register with the government. The agreement breaks down shortly thereafter.
June 2004 Pakistani forces conduct an operation in the Shakai Valley after alarming intelligence reports indicate that a force of more than 200 Chechens and Uzbeks, some Arabs, and several hundred local supporters are gathering in the area.
July 2004 The nongovernmental organization Médecins sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders) withdraws from Afghanistan, citing a deteriorating security environment.
October 2004 Afghans hold presidential elections and elect Hamid Karzai as president. NATO completes Stage 1 of its expansion into northern Afghanistan.
September 2005 Afghans hold parliamentary elections for the Wolesi Jirga (House of People) and Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders). NATO completes Stage 2 of its expansion, moving into western Afghanistan.
March 2006 U.S. and Afghan forces launch Operation Mountain Lion in Kunar Province.
May 2006 U.S. and Afghan forces launch Operation Mountain Thrust, the largest offensive since the fall of the Taliban, to quell the Taliban insurgency in southern Afghanistan.
July 2006 NATO completes Stage 3 of its expansion, moving into southern Afghanistan.
September 2006 Operation Medusa begins in Kandahar Province against dug-in Taliban forces. It involves forces from such NATO countries as Canada, the United States, and the Netherlands. Afghan and U.S. forces initiate Operation Mountain Fury against insurgents in Paktika, Khowst, Ghazni, Paktia, and Lowgar Provinces. In addition, the governor of Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province reaches an agreement in Miramshah with a tribal grand jirga, in which the Taliban promise not to use the area to conduct attacks in Afghanistan. Over the next few months, however, the United States estimates that cross-border infiltration increased by between 300 and 400 percent in some areas.
October 2006 NATO completes Stage 4 of its expansion into the east, and Afghanistan is now divided i
nto five geographic commands: Regional Command Central, North, West, South, and East.
November 2006 At NATO’s summit in Riga, Latvia, tensions surface over military contributions in Afghanistan. France, Germany, Spain, and Italy remain reluctant to send their troops to southern Afghanistan. The Netherlands, Romania, and smaller nations such as Slovenia and Luxembourg agree to ease their restrictions on deployment.
January 2007 British Royal Marines begin Operation Volcano to clear insurgents from firing points in the village of Barikju in northern Helmand Province. This effort is followed by Operation Achilles, a major offensive that starts in March and ends in late May.
July 2007 The U.S. National Intelligence Council publicly releases its estimate of The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland. The document concludes that al Qa’ida remains “the most serious threat to the Homeland” and that it has “a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).”
December 2007 On December 27, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is assassinated during her election campaign. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates sharply criticizes some NATO countries for not supplying urgently needed soldiers and other aid as violence escalates in Afghanistan.
April 2008 President Hamid Karzai escapes an assassination attempt on April 27, as gunmen open fire during a military parade celebrating the nation’s victory and liberation from the Soviet occupation.
June 2008 During fighting along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border on June 10, U.S. forces kill nearly a dozen Pakistani Frontier Corps soldiers who are shooting at them.