Israel's Next War

by Martin Archer

  So far the Coalition’s strategy seems to working. The Israeli air force has not yet been able to fully exploit the lack of Islamic SAMs—it is still primarily engaged in fighting air to air battles to get control of the sky. Even so, according to the intercepts the IAF was effective when it could get its fighters free to attack ground targets. The situation is pretty much the same in Lebanon where both of Syria’s armored divisions came over the border at 0212 Wednesday morning without any opposition whatsoever and joined up with the extensive paramilitary forces of Hezbollah.

  On the face of it, the Coalition’s basic game plan is being effectively implemented: Syria is focusing on Lebanon; the Iraqis and Iranians are moving through Jordan to hit Israel on its flanks; and the Syrian and Iranian infantry and militias are now carrying most of the Islamic burden on the Golan.

  That may be about to change if the message intercept I am reading is accurate.

  “Concentrate the ground attack squadrons on the enemy armor and vehicles in Jordan and Lebanon,” was the order from the commander of the Israeli Air Force to all of his squadrons. It was received by all of the Israeli squadrons even before he explained it to the Prime Minister and the Israeli cabinet.

  “We’re about to get control of the air. When we do we’re going to concentrate on destroying the armored columns that are trying to pass through Jordan and Lebanon to get to Israel. We can’t do much on the Golan at the moment, because of all the SAMs they have there. All we can do is continue to nibble around the edges of the Golan battlefield while we wait for either the Islamic armor to come out from under their missile umbrella or enough of our mobile artillery batteries arrive from the Sinai and Negev.”

  NSA quickly picked up the order and the general’s explanation because the cabinet members, in turn, began discussing them with their friends and advisors.

  ******

  A message just came in informing me the Security Council meeting has been postponed. So I was pensive and thinking as I walked upstairs to help Dorothy inventory the supplies and equipment in the embassy’s first aid closet.

  We were making a list of the supplies when the ambassador sent a Marine runner to fetch me. I followed him down to Ambassador Tolson’s office to get the news—and it was big news: It seems we’re going to have a visitor this afternoon. General Hegazi, the Egyptian Vice President, is coming to personally apologize to the ambassador for the attack on the embassy and to discuss the Middle East situation. Apparently the Egyptian government arranged the visit through the White House. Of course; that’s why the Security Council meeting was postponed.

  “Well, I doubt the good general will want to climb over the bodies at the entrance,” I suggested somewhat cynically to Ambassador Tolson. “But I noticed a small gate in the back. We could open it and greet him there with the Marines in their dress uniforms acting as an honor guard in case he brings the Egyptian media.”

  And that’s exactly what we do later in the afternoon. I even had time to take a shower and shave and change my clothes before he arrived. Dorothy is going to watch from a fourth floor window.

  General Hegazi arrived in civilian clothes for his visit even though he is traveling in a military convoy large enough to start a small war. As previously arranged, the General stayed well away from the front of the embassy and the still smoldering bodies at the entrance to the embassy driveway. What he did, however, was much more important—he stood on the steps of the side entrance door of the building nearest to the little entrance gate and formally apologized to Ambassador Tolson on behalf of the Egyptian government. He even brought a couple of Egyptian and international TV network crews with him to make sure the message gets out. Interestingly enough, he said he was there to speak for his President who would have come himself if he hadn’t been taken ill.

  I suppose Egypt’s apology is a sign to the Islamic street that Egypt doesn’t intend to join the war. At least that’s what the ambassador thinks.

  What General Hegazi said was both interesting and pretty much exactly what Ambassador Tolson said he’d heard when he’d spoken with the Egyptian Foreign Minister a few hours ago. The Egyptian government is blaming a banned Islamic organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, for being misled by an extremist foreign government into thinking they can attack a foreign embassy and get away with it. Egypt’s somewhat secular military is obviously not big on ultra-religious Iran.

  “Egypt,” General Hegazi assured us as we walked together to the elevator to go up to the ambassador’s office, “will, of course, take care of all the necessary repairs and station a strong contingent of troops around the embassy for as long as necessary.” Good. We’ll leave it to them to remove the bodies and clean up the mess at the entrance.

  When we got to the ambassador’s office, General Hegazi’s security detail waited outside while the three of us—me, the ambassador, and the general—talked and drank the several of the traditional little cups of strong coffee required in Egypt when friends and neighbors get together and talk. There was even the traditional plate of sweets and cookies on the table, although no one except me touched them.

  General Hegazi was surprised and clearly pleased when I let him know that it appeared the Israelis were on their way to totally destroying the Islamic Army and have already launched major counter attacks into Jordan and Lebanon; the ambassador and I were surprised and clearly pleased when Hegazi asked us to convey to the Israeli government that Egypt considers itself to be at peace with Israel and intends to stay that way and honor all of its treaties and agreements.

  “We don’t want those crazy extremists on our borders any more than Israel does.”

  I’m a cynic—the peace will last until the Arab street forces the Egyptian army to change its mind or the Egyptian army thinks the Islamic Coalition is going to win. Then they’ll change sides to be on the winning side. The Secretary of State will be ecstatic either way—he’ll get at least one major TV interview out of it no matter which way the Egyptians jump.

  What the General told us next surprised me even more and might even be significant. He said as soon as the war is over Egypt’s President is going to call the Israeli Prime Minister and invite him to Cairo to discuss a new and better peace treaty and explore ways to make the region more stable.

  “Thank you, Mr. Vice President, that’s good to hear.” I responded. “Ambassador Tolson and I will immediately let the President and the Israelis know Egypt intends to stay out of the war. I’m sure they’ll also be encouraged to know your President intends to invite the Israeli Prime Minister to come for a visit after the war to discuss improving relations between their countries.”

  Hegazi, Tolson, and I talked for about an hour in a conversation that ranges from the inane about the health and aspirations of our children and grandchildren to the deadly serious about the war, why I think the Israelis will win decisively, and the dangers posed by the Muslim Brotherhood and the continuing rise of the religious extremists.

  An hour later Ambassador Tolson and I walked with General Hegazi and his security detail back out through the side gate to the army vehicles waiting for him on the side street next to the embassy wall.

  He’s traveling in a company-sized army convoy including APCs and armored cars—and the soldiers in his escort have obviously been busy cleaning the litter and debris off the street while the General was inside. The ambassador and I stood respectfully in the doorway of the little gate and didn’t go back into the embassy until his convoy began moving away.

  As soon as General Hegazi pulled out of sight Ambassador Tolson and I hurried into the embassy. Tolson sat next to me in the secure room as I called an anxious White House to report on the meeting. I was put straight through to the Situation Room. The President and the entire Security Council were waiting. The President wanted to know all about the meeting with General Hegazi and my take and the ambassador’s take on the situation here in Egypt and the war.

  After we finished our reports the Secretary of State surprised me—he recom
mended the President call the Egyptian President and reinforce the idea we think Israel’s going to win and win big. That’s actually a good idea.

  I piped up to support the Secretary and suggested the President gently, but specifically, let Egypt’s president know how relieved we are that Egypt stayed out of the war—since Egypt almost certainly would have lost the Sinai and the Canal to Israel as reparations—and this time it’s unlikely the United States would have been be able to convince Israel to ever give them back. The President agreed.

  Then we talked about the attack at the Cairo embassy. The President and the Vice President and a number of their senior advisers had watched a satellite feed of the scene as the mob tried to break in and then broke and ran when we fought back.

  “Yes sir, Mr. President, we had a close call. The embassy here was inches away from being overrun by the mob and becoming another Tehran, or maybe even worse. Had that happened, the Egyptian extremists, a group called the Muslim Brotherhood according to General Hegazi, might have been able to get enough momentum going to bring down the Egyptian government and bring Egypt into the war.

  “Sir, if it hadn’t been for the ambassador and a handful of Marines we’d have lost the embassy, and probably most of the entire embassy staff and maybe Egypt as well. They deserve some credit and recognition for their effort.

  “Uh. Mr. President, there’s something you should know. The reason we almost lost the embassy is that the responsibility for conducting each embassy’s defense does not belong to the ambassador. According to the State Department’s rules, the responsibility for conducting each embassy’s defense is automatically assigned to its Security Attaché, the senior FBI officer on the embassy’s legal staff. The senior FBI agent here in Cairo is a well-meaning fellow and, as you know, Ambassador Tolson ordered him to defend the embassy. Unfortunately, the poor man did not have a clue as to what to do. My God, Mr. President. His entire effort to defend us consisted of locking the embassy’s front door. He actually thought locking the door would keep the mob from entering the building after they broke down the front gate.

  “Yes sir, that’s a good way to put it. He was paralyzed like a deer caught in a car’s headlights.

  “Yes sir, we do not want another Tehran ever again. I would respectfully suggest whoever is in charge of each embassy’s security in the future should have specific training and be told to listen to the advice of the commander of the Marine guards—since they’re the ones who will do most of the fighting if there is an attack. Indeed, because our embassies are so important, you might want to consider issuing a presidential order putting each embassy’s senior Marine officer in charge of its defense and protection, or its Army attaché if the Marine detachment is so small it has no commissioned officers or warrant officers assigned to it.

  “Yes sir, perhaps a commissioned or warranted Marine officer should be put through an embassy defense course and stationed at every embassy where there might be trouble.” Hell, letting Marine NCOs get warrants and become embassy defense specialists would be a great promotion path. Next time I see the Commandant I’ll mention it to him.

  Then our talk turned to the current state of the war and the directors of NSA and the CIA gave their reports. Israel is obviously going to launch a counter offensive just as NSA reported and the Defense Minister told Tommy Talbot and me less than an hour ago. I’m pretty sure I know the Israeli plan so I listened with interest and increasing agreement as Tommy explained what the Joint Chiefs think is going to happen and why. Good. Tommy and I are thinking alike!

  “The Joint Chiefs,” Tommy explained, “believe the Islamic Army is attempting to move through Jordan and Lebanon in order to attack Israel on its flanks. Such a move, the Islamist commanders expect, will either allow them to attack Israel on its flanks or draw Israeli units away from their main effort on the Syrian front where the Islamic Army appears to still be slowly moving forward under a massive SAM umbrella.

  Tommy and the Joint Chiefs are right; it will draw some of the Israeli forces away from the Islamic Army’s main attack—but I don’t think it’s going to happen the way the Islamic armies expect.”

  “What we at Defense think we’re starting to see, Mr. President, is the beginning of a couple of major Israeli counterattacks going through Jordan and Lebanon and, perhaps, even on into Syria. We think the Israelis are going to try to go all the way around the Islamic Army and cut it off—then totally destroy it.”

  Exactly so; Tommy’s guys have nailed it.

  “Do you agree with General Talbot, General Roberts?”

  “Yes Mr. President, I do. And I think this time the Israelis are not going to stop advancing when the Islamic Coalition countries realize they are facing disaster and rush to the United Nations to ask for a ceasefire. The Israelis have gone down that route before and it didn’t work for them. So this time, no matter what the UN says or wants, they’re likely to keep right on going even if we ask them to stop. We need to keep that in mind before we start demonstrating our impotence by calling for truces, peace talks, and withdrawals we won’t get, and so far as I’m concerned we shouldn’t even try to get.”

  Boy did that trigger an argument. It seems the Secretary of State had intended to hold a press conference right after the meeting and join the other countries which have begun calling for an urgent Security Council meeting and a cessation of the fighting and peace talks.

  I finally couldn’t contain myself.

  “Jack, making such a call would be a mistake—a huge mistake. Do you really think the Israelis are going to agree to a truce or listen to us when the Islamic Army or whatever it calls itself is still occupying part of Israel or camped out on its borders? I’ve been talking to the Israelis and I can tell you categorically they won’t. And you know it. So can you tell us what it is you would be trying to accomplish?”

  “General, Uh… well we want to let the world know the President stands for peace and the use of negotiations to solve disputes.” Christ on a crutch, he’s looking at this as an opportunity to get some personal publicity for himself.

  “Let the world know, my ass; that’s just a bunch of meaningless bullshit to get you some time in front of the media and you know it and so does everyone else. All it would do if you mention the President or imply he agrees with you is make him look weak and stupid by asking for something impossible for Israel to give. It’s time for you people over at State to stop making speeches and holding press conferences and start coming up with some ideas for permanent solutions.” Where does the President’s staff find these people?

  “I resent that, General, I really do. We’ve got good lines of communication to the various leaders in both Iraq and Syria. Maybe, just maybe, we can talk our way out of this war.” We?

  “We can talk our way of the war? We?” I responded with an incredulous question in my voice. “We aren’t in this war, Jack, I said with heavy emphasis on the word ’we’. “Israel is.”

  “Well,” he replied rather huffily, “We have to try. Peace is important.”

  “It sure is,” I agreed. “But don’t confuse peace with you getting your picture in the media. Browbeating the Israelis and flitting around the world getting your picture taken shaking hands with Islamist dictators may impress the hell out of the academics who pass out the Nobel Peace Prize, but it’s not likely to result in anything except more death and destruction. What is needed here are viable permanent solutions—not photo opps for ambitious politicians.”

  “Enough,” the President growled.

  Chapter Eighteen

  ****** Harry Duffy

  Wounded Israelis are filling the big Ichilov Hospital complex and the almost constant sound of multiple ambulance sirens and helicopter arrivals means they are continuing to pour in; the bed they gave me is needed. So I climbed off the bed and walked next door to the nurses’ station and gave a ’you’re welcome to it’ gesture and bow towards the room and its bed. There is no need for me to stay in it now that they’ve sewed up my ass.
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  Dick’s in a room two doors down from mine. He’s still out from the gas they gave him when they sewed up his lacerations and bound up his broken ribs. So I moved in with him and spent the next hour or so in an Israeli hospital gown and bathrobe waiting for him to wake up. It’s probably going to take longer than usual because he was so exhausted when they put him under.

  The hospital has a little library and a lot of the books are in English. So I’ve been sitting on the corner of a chair in Dick’s room reading about animals in Kenya in an old National Geographic. It’s an effort to distract myself and ignore the dull pain in my ass.

  “Oh. ... Oh … Where am I?” A groggy voice asked in a rather quavering voice.

  “Hot damn. You’re awake! You’re in an Israeli hospital. How do you feel? ”

  “Oh. Not worth a … shit if you really… want to know. Jesus, what happened? How long have I been out?”

  “Relax buddy. It’s about seven in the evening. You got hit about six hours ago, and you’re gonna be okay. Actually, it was the truck what took the hit. All you got is a broken arm and a couple of broken ribs where some shrapnel or other shit chopped you up a bit. No big deal. You’ll be out dancing and screwing broads in a couple of days.” Well, maybe a bit longer than that.

  “No shit? Jesus, I don’t remember a thing.”

  “Well don’t look at me for any sympathy. At least you’re gonna end up with scars you can show to the ladies.”

  “Does the boss know what happened?”

  “Yeah. I finally got patched through to him a couple of hours ago on a hospital phone. He’s still in Cairo. Anyhow, he’s going to try to get us out on a Medevac flight. He says there’s one hell of a war going on; lots of casualties on both sides. I believe it. This hospital is huge and it’s full up with more and more wounded Israelis coming in all the time. We only got rooms to ourselves because everyone apparently wants to keep us secret for some reason. Christ, they’ve even got a couple of cute little soldier girls guarding the door to keep out the media.”