Israel's Next War

by Martin Archer

  “Yes, sir. I’ll ask them.”

  ******

  As I feared he might, the Secretary of State was unwilling to take no for an answer. I was resting in my hotel room before dinner when General Demir called. It was a couple of hours after I spoken with the President’s Chief of Staff and informed him the Turks did not think the Secretary’s presence would be helpful. It’s a good thing he called; I was taking a nap and might have slept through tonight’s dinner.

  “Chris, yes, we’re on first name basis now, the Israeli defense minister just informed me both your ambassador and your Secretary Billaud have been trying to reach him. My office has also been getting calls and so has Prime Minister Oscirin. It seems your Secretary Billaud intends to fly into Ankara tomorrow morning. He wants to meet with the Prime Minister to discuss your country’s participation in our meetings.”

  Good grief! What an arrogant fool.

  Then General Demir asked me a question in a sympathetic voice.

  “We value your friendship, Chris, and that of the United States. And so, I’m sure, do the Israelis. But we cannot tolerate your government interfering in our internal affairs, particularly when delicate negotiations are going on that will affect Turkey’s future.”

  Okay, I get it. He is gently asking me if I’m being replaced and why.

  I shook my head in disbelief even though he obviously couldn’t see me.

  “Okur, I understand your position. And I totally agree with it; it is obviously up to Turkey and Israel to determine who should be invited to sit with them when they meet with the delegations from the potential new states. If it’s okay with you, I will immediately contact the White House and try to find out what Secretary Billaud hopes to accomplish.” Besides getting his picture in the paper.

  ******

  Twenty minutes later I was in the embassy calling the White House on a secure line—and shooing out the ambassador who rushed into the room “urgently” needing to talk to me just as I got through to the President’s Chief of Staff. I didn’t exactly ’shoo’ him out—I pointed to the door and said ’leave’ in a rather unfriendly voice.

  “Hi Sandy, this is Chris Roberts in Ankara. I’m at the embassy. The head of the Turkish military just called and told me that Jack Billaud is on his way to Ankara, uninvited and unwelcome, to see the Turkish Prime Minister to quote ’help move the peace negotiations forward.’

  “You got that right. General Demir and the Turks are not at all happy about it. He told me in no uncertain terms that he and the Turkish military would bitterly resent any American attempt to interfere in Turkey’s internal affairs. The Israelis and Kurds, I’m sure, feel the same way. What’s going on and why and what should I do?”

  The answer surprised me.

  “Damned if I know, Chris. This is the first I’ve heard about it. Stay there; I’ll talk to the President as soon as I can and get back to you.”

  ******

  I was holding a tea bag in my hand and looking in the empty pot marked “hot water” on the sideboard when the ambassador ignored the “in use” light over the door and poked his head in again. Okay. It’s your embassy and I’m in a good mood because I just talked to Dorothy and everyone is fine.

  “Oh General, I’m glad I caught you. The Secretary has been trying to reach you to get a report. He’s coming to Ankara to meet with the Turkish Prime Minister and assist with the peace negotiations.”

  “What peace negotiations?” I think I’ll play dumb. Shouldn’t be hard.

  “You know. The ones mentioned in this morning’s New York Times. The ones Turkey is holding with Prime Minister Begin.”

  “Actually, I don’t know of any peace negotiations involving Turkey and the Israeli Prime Minister. What can you tell me about them?”

  The poor man was dumbstruck.

  “But that is what I was instructed to ask you.”

  “Really? Who asked you to do that?”

  “The Desk, of course.”

  “You talk to desks?” I ask incredulously as I eye him suspiciously. This is getting to be fun.

  “You know, General. The Middle East Desk at State.”

  “Oh. Yes, of course. I see. Someone on the Middle East Desk in the State Department told you the Times said the Turkish Prime Minister is helping Israel’s Prime Minister negotiate a peace agreement with the Islamic Coalition.”

  “Yes. I mean no. It was in the New York Times, you see. This morning’s edition.”

  “Of course. I bet the Secretary heard some kind of far-fetched rumor about secret peace negotiations being hosted in Turkey and tipped off the Times. Public’s right to know and that sort of thing.”

  “Oh I don’t think so because... ”

  Just then my call came through.

  “Well I’ve got to take this call and then I’ve got a meeting to attend. Please let me know if you find out what the Prime Minister is up to.”

  I said that as I made a sort of shooing motion with my hand to let him know that he had to leave.

  “Chris Roberts.”

  ******

  The media was out in force the next morning as Secretary Billaud arrived to the very proper reception General Demir arranged for him at the Ankara Airport. General Demir, with the approval of the Israelis and Kurds, even recessed the negotiating session for a few minutes so we could watch the Secretary’s arrival on television sets in an office near the conference room.

  “In case your Secretary or my Prime Minister says something stupid we need to know about.”

  So here we are standing in a little office off General Demir’s conference room and watching on Turkish TV as a CNN feed coming in from Atlanta covers the Secretary’s arrival. The Secretary’s trademark enthusiasm and determination to get things accomplished is evident. He trotted down the steps from his plane and enthusiastically shook hands with the beaming Turkish foreign minister waiting at the bottom and accepted a bouquet of flowers from a smiling little girl.

  The Secretary had a spring in his step as he moved to the hastily erected podium to make a brief speech about Turkey being “a highly valued partner” and the importance of “working together for peace.” Then he waved to the crowd of reporters and headed off in a convoy of limousines to meet with Turkish Prime Minister Oscirin and hold a press conference. The media representatives quickly piled into two chartered tour buses to follow him.

  The American press was greatly impressed by the warmth of the Turkish reception. The moderators sitting in CNN’s Atlanta studios pronounced themselves pleased that the Secretary was being so enthusiastically welcomed. It was significant they agreed. They also agreed with each other that his warm welcome suggests the forthcoming negotiations will go well. Obviously big things are afoot with the Secretary of State once again leading the way.

  The inane discussion between the news moderators stopped when the CNN feed from Atlanta paused for a commercial extolling the secret sauce used by a well-known hamburger chain. Then the moderators cut away to interview a correspondent on the scene and a panel of “experts” who were asked what kind of peace the Secretary will be able to accomplish and how long it will last. The experts sagely assured the moderators and their viewers that the success of the negotiations will depend on what the Turks and others agree to do and whether they actually do it. Where do they find these dorks?

  ******

  The Secretary was quite disappointed to learn that the Turkish generals neither required his services at this time nor those of the Turkish Prime Minister. But he rallied when he learned the Times story was wrong and the meeting being held by the Turkish generals and the Israelis had nothing to do with the possibility of peace negotiations between Israel and the coalition countries.

  Two hours later the Secretary and the Turkish Prime Minister beamed at each other as the Secretary once again faced the anxiously waiting press. He strode to the lectern and announced he will be shuttling off to Baghdad within the hour to see President Majid and help “push forward the prospects for p
eace.” Turkey, he announced as the Turkish Prime Minister beamed in agreement, had graciously offered to do whatever it could to help end the current hostilities between Israel and the coalition countries. Turkey’s willingness to participate in the peace process, the Secretary inferred, was a significant breakthrough.

  That evening General Demir, the Israeli defense minister, and I clicked our glasses together with broad smiles on our faces as we discussed the media’s coverage of the Secretary’s “peace visit.”

  “What an ass,” commented the Israeli. Ari never was very subtle.

  Then we turned our attention back to the leaders of the new commonwealth’s nations we could see gathering in the background. They were dining together as a group for the first time and appeared to be excited about meeting each other and thinking about what lies ahead.

  It’s probably the first state dinner most of them have ever attended and the Turks have done it right—with a splendid circular table in the center of the room and a full bar. At the moment, the leaders of the new states are standing with glasses in their hands around the Israeli and Turkish prime ministers and talking enthusiastically about how they might do things together in the future.

  We, on the other hand, were standing by the bar taking it all in. General Demir was sipping a glass of wine and Ari and Yossi and I were having a Turkish beer as we watch the politicians try to charm each other. We were in complete agreement—it’s pretty good beer.

  ******

  Things went smoothly in this morning’s meetings. Everyone somehow seemed more comfortable and relaxed than they were yesterday. Last night’s dinner and social hour probably helped.

  The Turkish-Israeli proposal was pretty much presented to each of the delegations as a take it or leave it deal even before they arrive in Istanbul—and, as you might imagine, they all took it. Even so, a few of the basic details were still being discussed and hammered out.

  At this point there appears to be agreement on most of the big questions including the borders of each of the new states. But that’s not all—the borders of Turkey and Israel are also going to expand beyond those in the initial proposals.

  Turkey is going to expand by annexing an immediately adjacent Iraqi district which is primarily populated by Turkomen; Israel is taking the area beyond the Golan up to the edge of Damascus as war reparations and is also annexing most of the land occupied by the Jewish settlements on the West Bank and almost all of the relatively unpopulated land in the Jordan River Valley except for a narrow corridor connecting Jordan to the two Arab enclaves destined to sooner or later become the Republic of Palestine.

  The others don’t know it but, according to the NSA Israel, is thinking ahead; it is going to immediately begin installing protection barriers around its new borders—huge tall concrete walls similar to those it built elsewhere to separate the Israelis from the Arabs.

  One of the two key points in the agreement, at least so far as I can see, is that Turkey and Israel and all the new countries will share a common market for the products and services they produce. The other key point, of course, is each of the new states will have defense treaties with Turkey and Israel guaranteeing their borders. In addition, each of the new states will have Turkish and Israeli army contingents of a mutually agreeable size to act as a tripwire in case it is attacked. Those states who don’t want a tripwire won’t have one.

  The presence of foreign army bases, even small ones, initially presented problems for several of the new states, particularly the Iraqi Kurds. The problem was overcome when it was agreed the “tripwire” soldiers will bring no dependents with them and any number of soldiers in excess of ten will have to be approved annually in advance by the host country.

  One of the more interesting parts of the current draft of the agreement has to do with the banks of each country in the common market. Each will be totally free to set up branches in all the other countries so long as the deposits they take in are guaranteed by their parent bank and all the money they raise locally is loaned out only to the local private sector.

  That’s smart. It will tie them together and help hold down the size of their governments. The Turks and Israelis don’t know it yet but, according to the CIA, the Iraqi Kurds have already decided to encourage their relatively small banks to open multiple branches in every one of the new countries including Turkey and Israel.

  Something else the Turks and Israelis don’t know, according to the CIA, is yesterday the leaders of the two Iraqi Kurdish factions agreed to work together on another long term project—to establish a parliament in Istanbul for the commonwealth which reflects an important reality—the new commonwealth will have more non-Turks living in it than Turks. The two Kurdish leaders are taking the long view. They remembered that Saladin the Kurd had been the leader of the entire Middle East long before the Ottoman Turks came on the scene.

  As it stands, all the new states and Turkey will use the Turkish lira as their currency and each will have its own government, military, passports, and UN membership; Israel will continue on the shekel.

  In the afternoon, with me listening in from the Ankara embassy and Jack Billaud listening in from our Baghdad embassy, I participated in the morning Security Council meeting in Washington. In my presentation I brought the President up to date on the relatively minor sticking points that had been holding up a final agreement. Diplomatic representation had been one of them. The new states wanted to be represented in UN in order to solidify their independent status. The Turks finally agreed with the specific understanding that the new states will abstain if they cannot vote with Turkey. That’s going to give Turkey a lot of votes.

  The oil and gas question, I reported, also appears to have been resolved. Israel and Turkey are to each have a permanent first right of refusal to buy, for either their own use or resale, one third of all the oil and gas that is produced in each of the new countries. They’ll automatically pay whatever the final third fetches in the market with arbitration if there is a dispute.

  Most significant of all, at least from my perspective, construction is to begin immediately on a major transportation and pipeline corridor to run through the new states all the way from the new Kurdish state in northern Iran to the Israeli ports of Haifa and Eilat. It will connect to the existing Turkish and Israeli transportation systems and include oil and gas pipelines, a major Interstate toll road, and a double tracked railroad that will hook into the European rail system at Istanbul. It will also include, at Israel’s sole expense, a massive system of canals and pipes to bring the water now flowing into the Gulf from the Euphrates to Israel and Jordan. We, of course, will soon be asked to put money into the World Bank to fund both projects.

  Interestingly enough, security barriers and border defenses emerged as one of the last sticking points to the final agreement. Israel is going to install concrete security walls all along its borders to seal them off from its non-commonwealth neighbors. It wants the new states to agree to do the same, particularly the Alawite state that will separate Syria from the sea. The new states like the idea but are concerned about the cost. Outside funding will be sought—hello United States.

  I explained, based on what Ari told me at dinner last night, why Israel wants the security walls specified in the treaties. It wants them so it will have political cover when it starts building its own border barriers to totally separate the Palestinians from Israel. It also wants them built in order to protect the transportation corridor.

  Other unresolved problems are the Iranian MEK in Iraq, the Kurds in Turkey, and the Palestinians on the West Bank who will end up inside Israel. The other countries don’t know it, and it really doesn’t affect the new commonwealth, but something Ari said last night made me think the Israelis have done some kind of deal with Saudi Arabia to build the Palestinians a new city on the coast near Israel. He thinks the Saudis are going to call it Arafat City.

  The current proposal for the MEK who fear returning to Iran is for them to get passports from whichever st
ate where they are now residing and live in Turkey if they so desire. Somewhat similarly, to relieve the pressure on the Turks, each of the new Kurdish states will be a “homeland with a right to residency” for any Kurds who wish to live there just as Israel is a homeland for Jews and the new Christian and Druze states in what is now Lebanon will be for the Christian Arabs and the Druze.

  Yossi and Demir think most of the MEK will end up in Turkey and most of the Kurds in Turkey will decide to stay there. They’re probably right.

  ******

  By Wednesday afternoon everyone fell into line and enthusiastically agreed to the new Turkish commonwealth and a common market including Israel.

  Secretary of State Billaud is going to fly in to represent the United States during the photo opportunities presented by the signing ceremony and celebratory banquet. I am not staying for the signing ceremony. I’ve got something much more important to attend—a middle school soccer game. It’s my turn to take my grandson’s team for pizza.

  Epilogue

  It’s done. The Turkish Commonwealth now exists. There are ten contiguous new countries taking Turkey’s place as the buffer between Europe and the militant and much reduced Islamic states of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon. The Kurds have two mini-states in Iraq, one in Lebanon, and one in northern part of Syria and two in Iran. There is also a new Christian state and a small Druze state in what once was part of Lebanon and two new Islamic states. The new Islamic states are an Azerbaijani state in northern Iran between the two Kurdish states; and an Alawite state in Syria on the flatlands between the two Kurdish states in the mountains.

  Each of the new states will be in a common market with a slightly larger Turkey and a substantially larger Israel, and each is in the process of opening embassies in Ankara and Jerusalem; Israel and Turkey are, in turn, in the process of opening embassies in each of the new states.

  ****** Dubai

  Their aides withdrew so the leaders of what are once again the only two significant and powerful nations in the Middle East, other than Turkey of course, could have a few moments of privacy together. They had just finished signing the latest of their secret treaties pledging their countries to support each other on a number of additional issues including the building of the new city for the Palestinians.