The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change
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110 four out of every ten Tunisians were connected to the Internet
Zahera Harb, “Arab Revolutions and the Social Media Effect,” M/C Journal [Media/Culture Journal] 14, no. 2 (2011).
111 with almost 20 percent of them on Facebook
Ibid.
112 80 percent of the Facebook users were under the age of thirty
Ibid.
113 as censoring political dissent on the Internet
Reporters without Borders, “Enemies of the Internet,” March 12, 2010, http://en.rsf.org/IMG/pdf/Internet_enemies.pdf.
114 It was the downloaded video that ignited the Arab Spring
John D. Sutter, “How Smartphones Make Us Superhuman,” CNN, September 10, 2012.
115 In Saudi Arabia, Twitter has facilitated public criticism
Robert F. Worth, “Twitter Gives Saudi Arabia a Revolution of Its Own,” New York Times, October 20, 2012.
116 feisty and relatively independent satellite television channel Al Jazeera
Jon Alterman, “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised,” Middle East Notes and Comment, Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 2011; Heidi Lane, “The Arab Spring’s Three Foundations,” per Concordiam, March 2012.
117 even in countries where they are technically illegal
Angelika Mendes, “Media in Arab Countries Lack Transparency, Diversity and Independence,” Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, June 25, 2012, http://www.kas.de/wf/en/33.31742/; Lin Noueihed and Alex Warren, The Battle for the Arab Spring: Revolution, Counter-Revolution and the Making of a New Era (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), p. 50; Lane, “The Arab Spring’s Three Foundations.”
118 the Internet had spread throughout Egypt and the region
Harb, “Arab Revolutions and the Social Media Effect”; Alterman, “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised.”
119 Al Jazeera and its many siblings were the more important factor
Alterman, “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised.”
120 “All that trouble from this little matchbox?”
“Special Report: Al Jazeera’s News Revolution,” Reuters, February 17, 2011.
121 shut down access to the Internet in the way Myanmar and Iran had
Harb, “Arab Revolutions and the Social Media Effect.”
122 the public’s reaction was so strong that the fires of revolt grew even hotter
Ibid.
123 including Malcolm Gladwell
Malcolm Gladwell, “Small Change: Why the Revolution Will Not Be Tweeted,” New Yorker, October 4, 2010.
124 actually represented a tiny fraction of Egypt’s huge population
Noah Shachtman, “How Many People Are in Tahrir Square? Here’s How to Tell,” Wired Danger Room blog, February 1, 2011, http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/how-many-people-are-in-tahrir-square-heres-how-to-tell/.
125 new political consensus around what kind of government
David D. Kirkpatrick, “Named Egypt’s Winner, Islamist Makes History,” New York Times, June 25, 2012.
126 from those advocated by most of the Internet-inspired reformers
Ibid.
127 when the Ottoman Empire banned the printing press
Fatmagul Demirel, Encyclopedia of the Ottoman Empire, edited by Gabor Agoston and Bruce Masters (New York: Facts on File, 2009), p. 130.
128 they had deprived themselves of the fruits of the Print Revolution
Ishtiaq Hussain, “The Tanzimat: Secular Reforms in the Ottoman Empire,” Faith Matters, February 5, 2011, http://faith-matters.org/images/stories/fm-publications/the-tanzimat-final-web.pdf.
129 depending on how they are used and who uses them to greatest effect
Evgeny Morozov, “The Dark Side of Internet for Egyptian and Tunisian Protesters,” Globe and Mail, January 28, 2011; Louis Klaveras, “The Coming Twivolutions? Social Media in the Recent Uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt,” Huffington Post, January 31, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/louis-klarevas/post_1647_b_815749.html.
130 have even experimented with Internet voting in elections and referenda
Sutton Meagher, “Comment: When Personal Computers Are Transformed into Ballot Boxes: How Internet Elections in Estonia Comply with the United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,” American University International Law Review 23 (2008).
131 proposals placed by citizens on a government website
Freedom House—Latvia, 2012, http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2012/latvia.
132 achieve higher levels of quality in the services they deliver
Tina Rosenberg, “Armed with Data, Fighting More Than Crime,” New York Times, Opinionator blog, May 2, 2012, http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/02/armed-with-data-fighting-more-than-crime/.
133 productive dialogues and arguments about issues and legislation
Clay Shirky, “How the Internet Will (One Day) Transform Government,” TEDGlobal 2012, June 2012.
134 watch Internet videos on television screens
Jenna Wortham, “More Are Watching Internet Video on Actual TVs, Research Shows,” New York Times, September 26, 2012.
135 “be appropriated into the realm of the digital”
William Gibson, “Back from the Future,” New York Times Magazine, August 19, 2007.
136 any other activity besides sleeping and working
Joe Light, “Leisure Trumps Learning in Time-Use Survey,” Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2011.
137 watches television more than five hours per day
Nielsen, “State of the Media: Consumer Usage Report,” 2011, p. 3. The American Video Viewer, 32 hours, 47 minutes of TV viewing weekly = 4.7 hours per day, http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/reports-downloads/2011-Reports/StateofMediaConsumerUsageReport.pdf.
138 spends 80 percent of his or her campaign money
eMarketer, “Are Political Ad Dollars Going Online?,” May 14, 2008, http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?id=1006271&R=1006271.
139 Philadelphia and easily find several low-cost print shops
Christopher Munden, “A Brief History of Early Publishing in Philadelphia,” Philly Fiction, http://phillyfiction.com/more/brief_history_of_early_days_of_philadelphia_publishing.html.
140 destructive trend is likely to get much worse before it gets better
Citizens United v. FEC, 130 S. Ct. 876 (2010); Adam Liptak, “Justices, 5-4, Reject Corporate Spending Limit,” New York Times, January 22, 2010.
141 television is much more tightly controlled than the Internet
Charles Clover, “Internet Subverts Russian TV’s Message,” Financial Times, December 1, 2011.
142 “There is one face: Putin”
David M. Herszenhorn, “Putin Wins, but Opposition Keeps Pressing,” New York Times, March 4, 2012.
143 people aged sixty-five and older watch, on average
Alana Semuels, “Television Viewing at All-Time High,” Los Angeles Times, February 24, 2009.
144 most major cities that people used to read
Donald A. Ritchie, Reporting from Washington: The History of the Washington Press Corps (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 131.
145 the morning newspapers began to go bankrupt as well
Mark Fitzgerald, “How Did Newspapers Get in This Pickle?,” Editor & Publisher, March 18, 2009.
146 digital news stories already reach more people
David Carr, “Tired Cries of Bias Don’t Help Romney,” New York Times, October 1, 2012.
147 staring at chalk on a blackboard
“Why Do 60% of Students Find Their Lectures Boring?,” Guardian, May 11, 2009.
148 sharp declines in budgets for public education
“Education Takes a Beating Nationwide,” Los Angeles Times, July 31, 2011.
149 college-level instruction on the Internet
Tamar Lewin, “Questions Follow Leader of For-Profit Colleges,” New York Times, May 27, 2011; Tamar Lewin, “For-Profit College Group Sued
as U.S. Lays Out Wide Fraud,” New York Times, August 9, 2011.
150 The school was later prosecuted and shut down
“Degrees for Sale at Spam U.,” CBS News, February 11, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-205_162-659418.html; “Diploma Mill Operators Hit with Court Judgments,” Consumer Affairs, March 18, 2005, http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2005/diploma_mill.html.
151 emergence of chronic disease states that account for most medical problems
“Counting Every Moment,” Economist, March 3, 2012.
152 beginning to improve the allocation and deployment of public health resources
Andrea Freyer Dugas et al., “Google Flu Trends: Correlation with Emergency Department Influenza Rates and Crowding Metrics,” Clinical Infectious Diseases 54, no. 4 (January 8, 2012).
153 insurance companies have begun to use data mining techniques
“Very Personal Finance,” Economist, June 2, 2012.
154 for customers whose data profiles classify them as low-risk
Ibid.
155 the legend of Doctor Faust first appeared
Christopher Marlowe, The Tragical History of Doctor Faustus, 1604, edited by Rev. Alexander Dyce, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/779/779-h/779-h.htm.
156 historians claim that Faust was based
Philip B. Meggs and Alston W. Purvis, Meggs’ History of Graphic Design, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2012), p. 76–77.
157 “Faustian bargains”
Herman Kahn, “Technology and the Faustian Bargain,” January 1, 1976, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2218; Lance Morrow, “The Faustian Bargain of Stem Cell Research,” Time, July 12, 2001.
158 read by the government without a warrant
John Seabrook, “Petraeus and the Cloud,” New Yorker, November 14, 2012.
159 reliance on the cloud creates new potential choke points
Nicole Perlroth, “Amazon Cloud Service Goes Down and Takes Popular Sites with It,” New York Times, October 22, 2012.
160 “So you have these two fighting against each other”
Richard Siklos, “Information Wants to Be Free … and Expensive,” CNN, July 20, 2009, http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2009/07/20/information-wants-to-be-free-and-expensive/
161 on servers based in Sweden, Iceland, and possibly other locations
Andy Greenberg, “Wikileaks Servers Move to Underground Nuclear Bunker,” Forbes, August 30, 2010.
162 broke into numerous other government and corporate
“WikiLeaks Backlash: The First Global Cyber War Has Begun, Claim Hackers,” Guardian, December 11, 2010.
163 Independent groups of hacktivists
Hayley Tsukayama, “Anonymous Claims Credit for Crashing FBI, DOJ Sites,” Washington Post, January 20, 1012; Ellen Nakashima, “CIA Web Site Hacked; Group LulzSec Takes Credit,” Washington Post, June 15, 2011; Thom Shanker and Elisabeth Bumiller, “Hackers Gained Access to Sensitive Military Files,” New York Times, July 14, 2011; David E. Sanger and John Markoff, “I.M.F. Reports Cyberattack Led to ‘Very Major Breach,’ ” New York Times, June 11, 2011; David Batty, “Vatican Becomes Latest Anonymous Hacking Victim,” Guardian, March 7, 2012; Melanie Hick, “Anonymous Hacks Interpol Site After 25 Arrests,” Huffington Post, January 3, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/01/anonymous-hacks-interpol-_n_1312544.html; Martin Beckford, “Downing Street Website Also Taken Down by Anonymous,” Telegraph, April 8, 2012; Tom Brewster, “Anonymous Strikes Downing Street and Ministry of Justice,” TechWeek Europe, April 10, 2012, http://www.techweekeurope.co.uk/news/anonymous-government-downing-street-moj-71979; “NASA Says Was Hacked 13 Times Last Year,” Reuters, March 2, 2012.
164 hackers recorded the call and put it on the web
Duncan Gardham, “ ‘Anonymous’ Hackers Intercept Conversation Between FBI and Scotland Yard on How to Deal with Hackers,” Telegraph, February 3, 2012.
165 penetrated by a cyberattack believed to have originated in China
Michael Joseph Gross, “Enter the Cyber-Dragon,” Vanity Fair, September 2011.
166 “fifth domain” for potential military conflict
Susan P. Crawford, “When We Wage Cyberwar, the Whole Web Suffers,” Bloomberg, April 25, 2012.
167 “a global cyber arms race”
David Alexander, “Global Cyber Arms Race Engulfing Web—Defense Official,” Reuters, April 11, 2012.
168 cybersecurity technology, offense has the advantage over defense
Ibid.; Ron Rosenbaum, “Richard Clarke on Who Was Behind the Stuxnet Attack,” Smithsonian, April 2, 2012.
169 which prevented ancient Greece’s conquest by Persia
Simon Singh, The Code Book: The Science of Secrecy from Ancient Egypt to Quantum Cryptography (New York: Doubleday, 1999).
170 on the messenger’s scalp, and then “waited for the hair to regrow”
Ibid.
171 cryptography in its various forms
Ibid.; Andrew Lycett, “Breaking Germany’s Enigma Code,” BBC, February 17, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/wwtwo/enigma_01.shtml.
172 “The system kind of got loose”
Michael Joseph Gross, “World War 3.0,” Vanity Fair, May 2012.
173 four trends have converged to make cybersecurity a problem
James Kaplan, Shantnu Sharma, and Allen Weinberg, “Meeting the Cybersecurity Challenge,” McKinsey Quarterly, June 2011.
174 corporations, government agencies, and organizations
Gross, “Enter the Cyber-Dragon.”
175 “We don’t do that”
Rosenbaum, “Richard Clarke on Who Was Behind the Stuxnet Attack.”
176 373,000 jobs each year—and $16 billion in lost earnings—from the theft of intellectual property
Richard Adler, Report of the 26th Annual Aspen Institute Conference on Communications Policy, Updating Rules of the Digital Road: Privacy, Security, Intellectual Property, 2012, p. 14.
177 worth $1 billion—in a single night
Richard A. Clarke, “How China Steals Our Secrets,” New York Times, April 3, 2012.
178 examined one yet that has not been infected
Nicole Perlroth, “How Much Have Foreign Hackers Stolen?,” New York Times, Bits blog, February 14, 2012, http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/14/how-much-have-foreign-hackers-stolen/?scp=7&sq=cyber%20security&st=cse.
179 “nearly four times the amount of data”
Ibid.
180 “cyberthreat will be the number one threat to the country”
J. Nicholas Hoover, “Cyber Attacks Becoming Top Terror Threat, FBI Says,” Information Week, February 1, 2012.
181 thirteen U.S. defense contractors, and a large number of other corporations
Michael Joseph Gross, “Exclusive: Operation Shady Rat—Unprecedented Cyber-Espionage Campaign and Intellectual-Property Bonanza,” Vanity Fair, August 2, 2011.
182 six weeks’ worth of emails between the Chamber
Nicole Perlroth, “Traveling Light in a Time of Digital Thievery,” New York Times, February 10, 2012.
183 still sending information over the Internet to China
Ibid.
184 individual packages containing the products they produce
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Machine-to-Machine Communications: Connecting Billions of Devices,” OECD Digital Economy Papers, No. 192, 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k9gsh2gp043-en.
185 dairy farmers in Switzerland are even connecting
John Tagliabue, “Swiss Cows Send Texts to Announce They’re in Heat,” New York Times, October 2, 2012.
186 “control systems that run these facilities, a nearly fivefold increase from 2010”
John O. Brennan, “Time to Protect Against Dangers of Cyberattack,” Washington Post, April 15, 2012.
187 repeated cyberattacks from an unknown source
Thomas Erdbrink, “Iranian Officials Disconnect Some Oil Terminals from Internet,” New York Times, April 2
4, 2012.
188 Aramco, was the victim of cyberattacks
Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Suspects Iran Was Behind a Wave of Cyberattacks,” New York Times, October 14, 2012.
189 The attack on Aramco
Nicole Perlroth, “In Cyberattack on Saudi Firm, U.S. Sees Iran Firing Back,” New York Times, October 23, 2012.
190 Iranian gas centrifuges that were enriching uranium
William J. Broad, John Markoff, and David E. Sanger, “Israeli Test on Worm Called Crucial in Iran Nuclear Delay,” New York Times, January 15, 2011.
191 began infecting computers in Iran and several other nations
“ ‘Flame’ Computer Virus Strikes Middle East; Israel Speculation Continues,” Associated Press, May 29, 2012.
192 destructive attacks against Internet-connected machinery
William J. Broad, John Markoff, and David E. Sanger, “Israeli Test on Worm Called Crucial in Iran Nuclear Delay,” New York Times, January 15, 2011.
193 inadvertently infected by Stuxnet
Rachel King, “Virus Aimed at Iran Infected Chevron Network,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2012.
194 Leon Panetta publicly warned that a “cyber–Pearl harbor”
Elisabeth Bumiller and Thom Shanker, “Panetta Warns of Dire Threat of Cyberattack on U.S.,” New York Times, October 11, 2012.
195 “only they’re making it 30 percent cheaper”
Perlroth, “Traveling Light in a Time of Digital Thievery.”
196 then steal some of its most valuable customers
Steve Fishman, “Floored by News Corp.: Who Hacked a Rival’s Computer System?,” New York, September 28, 2011.
197 emails of individuals to gather information for news stories
Sarah Lyall and Ravi Somaiya, “British Broadcaster with Murdoch Link Admits to Hacking,” New York Times, April 5, 2012.
198 hacking into the telephone voicemails
Don Van Natta Jr., Jo Becker, and Graham Bowley, “Tabloid Hack Attack on Royals, and Beyond,” New York Times, September 1, 2010.
199 hack into supposedly secure videoconferences
Nicole Perlroth, “Cameras May Open Up the Board Room to Hackers,” New York Times, January 22, 2012.
200 theft of important information because they have a financial incentive
James Kaplan, Shantnu Sharma, and Allen Weinberg, “Meeting the Cybersecurity Challenge,” McKinsey Quarterly, June 2011.