The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change

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The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change Page 57

by Al Gore

129 more than all lobbyist expenditures combined when the Powell Plan

  Kaiser, “Citizen K Street: Introduction.”

  130 only 3 percent of retiring members of Congress

  Lessig, Republic, Lost, p. 123.

  131 more than 50 percent of retiring senators and more than 40 percent

  Ibid.

  132 “ideological warfare”

  Powell, “The Powell Memo.”

  133 change the character of American government

  Timothy Noah, “Think Cranks,” New Republic, March 30, 2012.

  134 principal as quickly as possible in order to have maximum impact

  Ibid.

  135 Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation

  Ibid.

  136 Adolph Coors Foundation

  David Brock, The Republican Noise Machine: Right-Wing Media and How It Corrupts Democracy (New York: Random House, 2005), p. 43.

  137 “if, in turn, business is willing to provide the funds”

  Powell, “The Powell Memo.”

  138 seminars organized by wealthy corporate interests

  Eric Lichtblau, “Advocacy Group Says Justices May Have Conflict in Campaign Finance Case,” New York Times, January 19, 2011.

  139 basic functions that had been performed by democratically

  Emily Thornton, “Roads to Riches,” BusinessWeek, May 6, 2007; Jonathan Hoenig, “Opportunities in Infrastructure: Should We Privatize Bridges and Roads?,” Fox News, August 5, 2007, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253438,00.html.

  140 highest inequality of incomes and the highest poverty rate

  James Gustave Speth, “America the Possible: A Manifesto, Part I,” Orion, March/April 2012.

  141 lowest “material well-being”

  Ibid.

  142 highest child poverty rate

  Ibid.

  143 highest infant mortality rate

  Ibid.

  144 biggest prison population and the highest homicide rate

  Ibid.

  145 largest percentage of its citizens unable to afford health care

  Ibid.

  146 “should be monitored in the same way that textbooks”

  Powell, “The Powell Memo.”

  147 “opportunity for supporters of the American system”

  Ibid.

  148 “vex and oppress each other than to co-operate for their common good”

  James Madison, Federalist No. 10, “The Same Subject Continued: The Union as a Safeguard Against Domestic Faction and Insurrection,” November 23, 1787, http://thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fed_10.html.

  149 “unfriendly passions and excite their most violent conflicts”

  Ibid.

  150 “the various and unequal distribution of property”

  Ibid.

  151 property, and income in the United States is now larger

  Timothy Noah, “Introducing the Great Divergence,” Slate, September 3, 2010.

  152 who are relatively more tolerant and others who are relatively less tolerant

  Jonathan Haidt, “Born This Way? Nature, Nurture, Narratives, and the Making of Our Political Personalities,” Reason, May 2012.

  153 value liberty and fairness but think about them differently

  Ibid.

  154 differences are reinforced by social feedback loops

  Ibid.; Sasha Issenberg, “Born This Way: The New Weird Science of Hardwired Political Identity,” New York, April 16, 2012.

  155 what language would most trigger feelings of outrage

  Frank Luntz, Words That Work: It’s Not What You Say, It’s What People Hear (New York: Hyperion, 2006), p. 165.

  156 strategy known as “starve the beast”

  Bruce Bartlett, “ ‘Starve the Beast’: Origins and Development of a Budgetary Metaphor,” Independent Review, Summer 2007.

  157 U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will be 70 percent in 2013

  Congressional Budget Office, “The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook,” http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf.

  158 exceeds GDP if money the government owes to itself is added to the debt

  Agence France-Presse, “US Borrowing Tops 100% of GDP: Treasury,” August 3, 2011; Matt Phillips, “The U.S. Debt Load: Big and Cheap,” Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2012.

  159 no perceptible effect on the demand for U.S. bonds

  Tim Mullaney, “A Year After Downgrade, S&P’s View on Washington Unchanged,” USA Today, August 7, 2012.

  160 add approximately $1 trillion to interest payments over the next decade

  Jeanne Sahadi, “Washington’s $5 Trillion Interest Bill,” CNN Money, March 12, 2012, http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/05/news/economy/national-debt-interest/index.htm.

  161 “the diffusion of power away from government”

  Joseph S. Nye, “Cyber War and Peace,” Project Syndicate, April 10, 2012, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cyber-war-and-peace.

  162 not even close to the fiscal conditions that would have reduced the risk

  David Marsh, “The Euro’s Lost Promise,” New York Times, March 17, 2010; Sven Boll, “New Documents Shine Light on Euro Birth Defects,” Der Spiegel, May 8, 2012.

  163 for the two decades since reunification—at an estimated cost of $2.17 trillion

  Katrin Bennhold, “What History Can Explain About the Greek Crisis,” New York Times, May 21, 2012.

  164 plant varieties that were especially suitable for cultivation

  Jared Diamond, “What Makes Countries Rich or Poor?,” New York Review of Books, June 7, 2012.

  165 Fertile Crescent (and in nearby Crete)

  Ibid.

  166 several other areas of the world, including Mexico, the Andes, and Hawaii

  Ibid.

  167 shared form of national languages stimulated

  Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities, new ed. (New York: Verso, 2006), pp. 39–48.

  168 difficulty communicating with speakers of other forms

  Ibid.

  169 further strengthened national identities

  Ibid.

  170 while often neglecting to include narratives

  Ibid.

  171 China and Korea have regularly become sources of tension in Northeast Asia “Japan Textbook Angers Chinese, Korean Press,” BBC News, April 6, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4416593.stm.

  172 Google Translate

  Franz Och, Google Official Blog, “Breaking Down the Language Barrier—Six Years In,” April 26, 2012, http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/breaking-down-language-barriersix-years.html.

  173 more documents, articles, and books in one day

  Ibid.

  174 Seventy-five percent of the web pages translated

  Personal correspondence with Franz Och, Google.

  175 Chinese language users of the Internet

  Matt Silverman, “China: The World’s Largest Online Population,” Mashable, April 10, 2012, http://mashable.com/2012/04/10/china-largest-online-population/; David Teegham, “Chinese to Be Most Popular Language on the Internet,” Discovery News, January 2, 2011, http://news.discovery.com/tech/chinese-to-be-most-popular-language-on-internet.html.

  176 once vested in its national government

  U.S. Department of State, “Background Note: Belgium,” March 22, 2012, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2874.htm.

  177 an “assembly of men”

  Thomas Hobbes, “Of the Natural Condition of Mankind as Concerning Their Felicity and Misery,” The Leviathan, 1651; ibid., “Of the Rights of Sovereign by Institution.”

  178 1,500 years ago between the Western and Eastern Roman empires

  “Bosnia and Hercegovina,” Lonely Planet, 2008, http://www.lonelyplanet.com/shop_pickandmix/previews/mediterranean-europe-8-bosnia-hercegovina-preview.pdf.

  179 went to the disputed territory of Kosovo

  Barney Petrovic, “Serbia Recalls an Epic Defeat,” Guardian, June 29, 1989.

  180 launched genocidal vio
lence against both Bosnians and Croats

  Ibid.

  181 20 percent of all land in the world, putting 150 million people

  “The United States Becomes a World Power,” Digital History, http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook_print.cfm?smtid=2&psid=3158; Saul David, “Slavery and the ‘Scramble for Africa,’ ” BBC, February 17, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/abolition/scramble_for_africa_article_01.shtml.

  182 nineteen of the forty-three known terrorist groups

  Lieutenant Colonel David A. Haupt, U.S. Air Force, “Narco-Terrorism: An Increasing Threat to U.S. National Security,” Joint Forces Staff College, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, 2009.

  183 larger than the national economies of 163 of the world’s 184 nations

  Ibid.

  184 Hundreds of thousands died unnecessarily, $3 trillion was wasted

  Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilmes, The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict (New York: Norton, 2008).

  185 amount of television watched and the decline of support for fundamentalism

  Mansoor Moaddel and Stuart A. Karabenick, “Religious Fundamentalism among Young Muslims in Egypt and Saudi Arabia,” Social Forces 86, no. 4 (June 2008).

  186 popularity of its movies and television programs

  Thomas Seibert, “Turkey Has a Star Role in More Than Just TV Drama,” National, February 8, 2012.

  187 decline in the number of people killed in wars

  Joshua S. Goldstein, Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide (New York: Dutton/Penguin, 2011), pp. 5–6.

  188 decline in the number of wars in every category

  Ibid.

  189 “by arbitration under International Law”

  Bulletin of the Pan-American Union 38, nos. 244–49 (1914), p. 79.

  190 in spite of U.S. superiority in conventional and nuclear weaponry

  Richard Clarke, “China’s Cyberassault on America,” Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2011.

  191 more than on any other program besides Social Security

  John Mueller, “Think Again: Nuclear Weapons,” Foreign Policy no. 177 (January/February 2010); Peter Passell, “The Flimsy Accounting in Nuclear Weapons Decisions,” New York Times, July 9, 1998.

  192 President Barack Obama reversed U.S. policy four years ago

  “A Treaty on Conventional Arms,” editorial, New York Times, July 9, 2012.

  193 some of which end up being trafficked in black markets

  C. J. Chivers, “Small Arms, Big Problems,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 1 (January/February 2011): 110–21; Richard F. Grimmett, Congressional Research Service, “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2003–2010,” September 22, 2011, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/174196.pdf.

  194 warned the United States about the “military industrial complex”

  Sam Roberts, “In Archive, New Light on Evolution of Eisenhower Speech,” New York Times, December 11, 2010.

  195 all of the military weapons sold to countries around the world originate in the United States

  Grimmett, “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2003–2010.”

  196 countries with the potential to build nuclear bombs

  Polly M. Holdorf, “Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2010, http://csis.org/files/publication/110916_Holdorf.pdf.

  197 could over time result in the ability to project intercontinental power

  Graham Allison, “Nuclear Disorder,” Foreign Affairs 89, no. 1 (January/February 2010): 74–85.

  198 many believe it is capable of selling nuclear weapons components

  William J. Broad, James Glanz, and David E. Sanger, “Iran Fortifies Its Arsenal with the Aid of North Korea,” New York Times, November 29, 2010.

  199 “correlation between high levels of development and stable democracy”

  Francis Fukuyama, “The Future of History: Can Liberal Democracy Survive the Decline of the Middle Class?,” Foreign Affairs 91, no. 1 (January/February 2012).

  200 will reach almost five billion people by 2030

  European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, Global Trends 2030—Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World, http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/ESPAS_report_01.pdf.

  201 “economic and social rights and, increasingly, environmental issues”

  Ibid.

  CHAPTER 4: OUTGROWTH

  1 “the personal distribution of income” or “a variety of costs that must be recognized”

  Simon Kuznets, National Income 1929–1932, Report to the U.S. Senate, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1934), pp. 5–6.

  2 three billion people in just the next seventeen years

  Homi Kharas, OECD Development Center, “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries,” January 2010, www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/62/44798225.pdf.

  3 standards that are more common in the wealthiest nations

  Ibid.

  4 exceeding the rate of growth in the number of people in the world

  Jeremy Grantham, “Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever,” GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2011.

  5 “furnished by the arts and manufactures to be debarred the use of them”

  “Letter from Thomas Jefferson to George Washington, 15 March 1784,” Library of Virginia, http://www.lva.virginia.gov/lib-edu/education/psd/nation/gwtj.htm.

  6 general public’s happiness or sense of well-being

  Institute for Studies in Happiness, Economy and Society, interview with Lester Brown, November 7, 2011, http://ishesorg/en/interview/itv02_01html.

  7 increases in consumption do not enhance a sense of well-being

  Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, “High Income Improves Evaluation of Life but Not Emotional Well-Being,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 7, 2010, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/08/27/1011492107.abstract.

  8 a dangerous “planetary scale ‘tipping point’ ”

  Anthony Barnosky et al., “Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere,” Nature, June 7, 2012.

  9 “It’s either got to be deflated gently, or it’s going to burst”

  Justin Gillis, “Are We Nearing a Planetary Boundary?,” New York Times, Green blog, June 6, 2012, http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/06/are-we-nearing-a-planetary-boundary/.

  10 high levels in 2008 and again in 2011

  United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “FAO Initiative on Soaring Food Prices,” http://www.fao.org/isfp/en/; Annie Lowrey, “Experts Issue a Warning as Food Prices Shoot Up,” New York Times, September 4, 2012.

  11 political upheavals struck several countries

  Jack Farchy and Gregory Meyer, “World Braced for New Food Crisis,” Financial Times, July 19, 2012; Evan Fraser and Andrew Rimas, “The Psychology of Food Riots,” Foreign Affairs, January 30, 2011.

  12 northern China, India, and the Western United States

  Li Jiao, “Water Shortages Loom as Northern China’s Aquifers Are Sucked Dry,” Science, June 18, 2010; “Groundwater Depletion Rate Accelerating Worldwide,” ScienceDaily, September 23, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100923142503.htm.

  13 countries where 50 percent of the world’s people live

  Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: Norton, 2008), http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/pb3book.pdf.

  14 depressing crop yields in several important food-growing regions

  John Vidal, “Soil Erosion Threatens to Leave Earth Hungry,” Guardian, December 14, 2010.

  15 surged simultaneously in the last eleven years

  Grantham, “Time to Wake Up.”

  16 increases larger than those that accompanied either World War I or II

  Ibid.

  17 the danger that we may soon reach “peak everythi
ng”

  Ibid.

  18 have been at least three times faster than those in the industrial world

  Ibid.

  19 world’s iron ore, coal, pigs, steel, and lead—and roughly 40 percent

  Ibid.; Scott Neuman, “World Starts to Worry as Chinese Economy Hiccups,” NPR News, December 2, 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/12/02/143048898/world-starts-to-worry-as-chinese-economy-hiccups; presentation by Robert Zoellick, World Bank Spring Meetings 2012, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/RBZ-SM12-for-Print-FINAL.pdf.

  20 being produced each year are now made in China

  Charles Riley, “Obama Hits China with Trade Complaint,” CNN Money, September 17, 2012, http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/17/news/economy/obama-china-trade-autos/index.html.

  21 automobiles in China than in its home country

  Alisa Priddle, “GM’s Big Plans for China Includes More Cadillac Models,” USA Today, April 25, 2012.

  22 250 million to slightly over one billion in 2013

  “One Billion Vehicles Now Cruise the Planet,” Discovery News, August 18, 2011, http://news.discovery.com/autos/one-billion-cars-cruise-planet-110818.html.

  23 double again in the next thirty years

  ExxonMobil, “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040,” 2012, http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news_pub_eo.pdf.

  24 “All of the net growth”

  International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook,” 2011.

  25 countries may be slowing, and in some cases may have peaked

  See, for example, U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, “EIA examines alternate scenarios for the future of U.S. energy,” June 25, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press361.cfm, and “U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2011,” August 14, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/.

  26 world’s population of cars and trucks would be 5.5 billion

  Justin Lahart, “What If the Rest of World Had as Many Cars as U.S.?,” Wall Street Journal blog, November 12, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/11/12/number-of-the-week-what-if-rest-of-world-had-as-many-cars-as-u-s/.

  27 U.S. oil production may soon edge back slightly above the 1970 peak

  Ronald D. White and Tiffany Hsu, “U.S. to Become World’s Largest Oil Producer by 2020, Report Says,” Los Angeles Times, November 13, 2012.

  28 the Arab members of OPEC implemented the first oil embargo

  U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian, “OPEC Oil Embargo, 1973–1974,” 2012, http://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/OPEC.

 

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