The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change
Page 61
UNEP, “Water Withdrawal and Consumption: The Big Gap,” 2008, http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/article42.html.
335 water withdrawal in the coming decades
Ibid.; Matthew Power, “Peak Water: Aquifers and Rivers Are Running Dry. How Three Regions Are Coping,” Wired, April 21, 2008.
336 Europe is consuming only a slightly larger percentage
Ibid.
337 are already experiencing severe shortages
Paul Quinlan, “US-Mexico Pact Hailed as Key Step Towards Solving Southwest Water Supply Woes,” New York Times, December 22, 2010.
338 herded north from Texas to wetter, cooler pastures
Drover’s Cattle, “More Than 150,000 Breeding Cattle Leave Texas in 2011 Drought,” February 2012, http://www.cattlenetwork.com/e-newsletters/drovers-daily/More-than-150000-breeding-cattle-leave-Texas-in-2011-drought-138513934.html.
339 will run completely dry before the end of this decade
“Dry Lake Mead? 50-50 Chance by 2021 Seen,” MSNBC, February 2008, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23130256/ns/us_news-environment/t/dry-lake-mead—-chance-seen/#.UGSvsBh9lbo.
340 has dropped more than 100 feet
Brown, Plan B 4.0.
341 two minutes on average, twenty-four hours a day
Charles Duhigg, “Saving US Water Systems Could Be Costly,” New York Times, March 14, 2010.
342 like groundwater resources—“out of sight, out of mind”
Ibid.
343 vast new quantities of needed freshwater
Power, “Peak Water.”
344 agricultural irrigation practices are still extremely wasteful
T. Marc Schober, “Irrigation: Yield Enhancer or Farmland Destroyer?,” Seeking Alpha, July 11, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/362794-t-marc-schober/194359-irrigation-yield-enhancer-or-farmland-destroyer; “No Easy Fix,” Economist; World Health Organization, “Progress on Drinking Water and Sanitation: 2012 Update.”
345 farmers have been slow to make the change
Sandra Postel, “Drip Irrigation Expanding Worldwide,” National Geographic, June 25, 2012.
346 amounts of salt that build up with continued use
World Wildlife Fund, “Farming: Wasteful Water Use,” 2005, http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/agriculture/impacts/water_use/.
347 safe for watering plants
Nancy Farghalli, “Recycling ‘Grey Water’ Cheaply,” NPR News, June 2009, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105089381.
348 purify it, and put it into drinking water systems
Kate Galbraith, “Taking the Ick Factor out of Recycled Water,” New York Times, July 25, 2012.
349 communities have successfully implemented the approach
Ibid.
350 more of the rainfall and store it for drinking water
Peter Gleick and Matthew Herberger, “Devastating Drought Seems Inevitable in American West,” Scientific American, January 2012.
351 roughly 10 percent of the Earth’s surface
Susan Lang, “ ‘Slow Insidious’ Soil Erosion Threatens Human Health and Welfare as Well as the Environment, Cornell Study Asserts,” Cornell Chronicle, March 2006.
352 accelerate the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
Personal conversation with Rattan Lal.
353 increasing the fertility of the topsoil
David R. Huggins and John P. Reganold, “No-Till: The Quiet Revolution,” Scientific American, July 2008, pp. 70–77.
354 replenish soil carbon and nitrogen
Michael Pollan, The Omnivore’s Dilemma: A Natural History of Four Meals (New York: Penguin, 2006), p. 42.
355 expensive liability instead of a valued asset
Ibid., p. 78.
356 nontoxic manure as fertilizer and a three-year crop rotation
Mark Bittman, “A Simple Fix for Farming,” New York Times, October 19, 2012.
357 virtually all of the nitrogen is derived
U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Domestic Nitrogen Fertilizer Depends On Natural Gas Availability and Prices,” 2003, p. 1, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-03-1148.
358 use per acre has been increasing dramatically
Jeremy Grantham, “Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever,” GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2011.
359 devoid of life, which are growing in several ocean regions
Robert Diaz and Rutger Rosenberg, “Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems,” Science, April 15, 2008.
360 recent spectacular algae blooms in Chinese
“No Easy Fix,” Economist.
361 U.S., China, Southeast Asia, and parts of Latin America
“Nitrogen Pollution an Increasing Problem Globally,” PRI’s The World, January 27, 2009, http://www.pri.org/stories/science/environment/nitrogen-pollution-an-increasing-problem-globally-8166.html.
362 tripled the depletion of phosphorus from cropland
David Vaccari, “Phosphorus: A Looming Crisis,” Scientific American, June 2009.
363 where 65 percent of U.S. production now takes place
Ibid.; James Elser and Stuart White, “Peak Phosphorus,” Foreign Policy, April 20, 2010.
364 search for new reserves is beginning again
Ibid.
365 the “Saudi Arabia of phosphorus”
Ibid.
366 exports during the 2008 food price crisis
Elser and White, “Peak Phosphorus.”
367 order to extend the supplies of phosphorus for fertilizers
Mara Grunbaum, “Gee Whiz: Human Urine Is Shown to Be an Effective Agricultural Fertilizer,” Scientific American, July 23, 2010.
368 soil fertility and enhance the sequestration of soil carbon
Rifat Hayat et al., “Soil Beneficial Bacteria and Their Role in Plant Growth Promotion: A Review,” Annals of Microbiology 60, no. 4 (December 2010): 579–98; Tim J. LaSalle, Regenerative Organic Farming: A Solution to Global Warming, Rodale Institute, July 30, 2008, pp. 2–3, http://www.rodaleinstitute.org/files/Rodale_Research_Paper_07_30_08.pdf.
369 soil and further protect against erosion
J. Paul Mueller, Denise Finney, and Paul Hepperly, “The Field System,” in The Sciences and Art of Adaptive Management: Innovating for Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management, edited by Keith M. Moore (Ankeny, IA: Soil and Water Conservation Society, 2009).
370 fertility of the soil while diminishing erosion
Huggins and Reganold, “No-Till: The Quiet Revolution.”
371 carefully managed way can also improve yields and soil quality
David Laird and Jeffrey Novak, “Biochar and Soil Quality,” Encyclopedia of Soil Science, 2nd ed. (New York: Taylor & Francis, 2011), pp. 1–4.
372 when Victory Gardens were planted during World War II
National WWII Museum, “Victory Gardens at a Glance,” 2009, http://www.nationalww2museum.org/learn/education/for-students/ww2-history/at-a-glance/victory-gardens.html.
373 keep up with the extra food production needed
David Pimentel et al., “Impact of a Growing Population on Natural Resources: The Challenge for Environmental Management,” Frontiers 3 (1997).
374 (approximately 25 million acres) every year
Lang, “ ‘Slow Insidious’ Soil Erosion.”
375 mostly in Kazakhstan (1954)—and created their own Dust Bowl
Lester Brown, World on the Edge (New York: Norton, 2011), http://www.earthpolicy.org/books/wote/wotech3.
376 Aral Sea, almost completely disappeared
NASA, “A Shrinking Sea, Aral Sea,” July 23, 2012, http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/landsat/news/40th-top10-aralsea.html.
377 eroded land to grassland and a nationwide effort to fight soil erosion
Andrew Glass, “FDR Signs Soil Conservation Act, April 27, 1935,” Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36362.html.
378 “Drylands are on the fron
t line”
Alister Doyle, “World Urged to Stop Net Desertification by 2030,” Reuters, June 14, 2011.
379 way of life for an estimated one billion people in 100 countries
Ibid.
380 “dust storm moved through a large swatch of Arizona”
“Historic Dust Storm Sweeps Across Arizona, Turns Day into Night,” July 6, 2011, Reuters.
381 unusually large number of them in recent years
“7 Haboobs Have Hit Arizona Since July,” KVOA, September 28, 2011, http://www.kvoa.com/news/7-haboobs-have-hit-arizona-since-july/.
382 describing what is in store for many regions of desertifying drylands
Joe Romm, “Desertification: The Next Dust Bowl,” Nature, October 2011.
383 “China, western Mongolia, and central Asia; the other in central Africa”
Lester Brown, “The Great Food Crisis of 2011,” Foreign Policy, January 10, 2011.
384 have increased tenfold during the last fifty years
Gaia Vince, “Dust Storms on the Rise Globally,” New Scientist, August 2004.
385 “activity and 40 percent of the continent’s population”
“Desertification Affects 70 Percent of Economic Activity in Africa,” Pana Press, October 24, 2011.
386 United States’ Midwest just prior to the Dust Bowl
Rattan Lal, interview with author, July 2, 2009; Rattan Lal, “Global Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration to Mitigate the Greenhouse Effect,” Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 22, no. 2 (2003): 151–84.
387 the number of livestock exploded
Brown, Plan B 4.0.
388 Muslims moving from the north into non-Muslim areas
Ibid.
389 surrounding China’s Gobi Desert
Damien Currington, “Desertification Is the Greatest Threat to the Planet, Experts Warn,” Guardian, December 15, 2010.
390 goats compared to less than 10 million in the United States
Ibid.
391 China is now losing almost 1,400 square miles of arable land
Ibid.
392 Inner Mongolia and Gansu Province are merging and expanding
Ibid.
393 Taklamakan and Kumtag deserts are also merging and expanding
Ibid.
394 abandoned in northern and western regions of China
Ibid.
395 have already abandoned many villages to the encroaching desert
Ibid.
396 “a savannah-like region bordering the basin on its south side”
Ibid.
397 Amazon rainforest, adding even more risk to the integrity
David Lapola et al., “Indirect Land-Use Changes Can Overcome Carbon Savings from Biofuels in Brazil,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 2010.
398 suffered from two “hundred-year” droughts in the last seven years
Simon Lewis et al., “The 2010 Amazon Drought,” Science, February 2011.
399 greatest tropical rainforest on Earth into a massive dryland region
Brown, Plan B 4.0.
400 90 percent of the people affected live in developing countries
Currington, “Desertification Is the Greatest Threat to the Planet, Experts Warn.”
401 “The top 20 centimeters of soil”
Ibid.
402 to accommodate additional shelter for Egypt’s fast-growing population
Metwali Salem, “UN Report: Egypt Sustains Severe Land Loss to Desertification and Development,” Egypt Independent, June 17, 2011.
403 resulting in the loss of cropland to salinization
“Seawater Intrusion Is the First Cause of Contamination of Coastal Aquifers,” ScienceDaily, July 31, 2007, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070727091903.htm.
404 Ganges Delta, the Mekong Delta, and in other so-called mega-deltas
K. Wium Olesen et al., “Mega Deltas and the Climate Change Challenges,” Eleventh International Symposium on River Sedimentation, September 6–9, 2010, http://www.irtces.org/zt/11isrs/paper/Kim_Wium_Olesen.pdf.
405 from whence 40 percent of Egypt’s food production comes
United Nations Development Programme, “Adaption to Climate Change in the Nile Delta Through Integrated Coastal Zone Management,” 2009, p. 9, http://nile-delta-adapt.org/index.php?view=DownLoadAct&id=6.
406 increase its population 85 percent during the same period
Brown, Plan B 4.0.
407 complaints by Iraq and Syria that they are being treated unjustly
Brown, “This Will Be the Arab World’s Next Battle.”
408 will only get worse as populations in all the affected countries increase
“Thirsty South Asia’s River Rifts Threaten ‘Water Wars,’ ” Alertnet, July 23, 2012, http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/thirsty-south-asias-river-rifts-threaten-water-wars/; “Southeast Asia Drought Triggers Debate Over Region’s Water Resources,” VOA News, March 24, 2010, http://www.voanews.com/content/southeast-asia-drought-triggers-debate-over-regions-water-resources—89114447/114686.html.
409 Colorado River system are being waged in court
Felicia Fonseca, “Arizona High Court Settles Water Rights Query,” Associated Press, September 12, 2012; “Colorado Court Ruling Limits Water Transfer Rights,” American Water Intelligence, July 2011, http://www.americanwaterintel.com/archive/2/7/opinion/colorado-court-ruling-limits-water-tranfers-rights.html; “Pivotal Water Rights Case on Wastewater Rights,” American Water Intelligence, June 2011, http://www.americanwaterintel.com/archive/2/6/analysis/pivotal-water-rights-case-wastewater-rights.html; “Navajo Lawmakers Approve Water Rights Settlement,” Associated Press, November 5, 2010; Jim Carlton, “Wet Winter Can’t Slake West’s Thirst,” Wall Street Journal, March 31, 2011.
410 an official with a Kenyan NGO, Friends of Lake Turkana
Kremena Krumova, “Land Grabs in Africa Threaten Greater Poverty,” Epoch Times, September 21, 2011.
411 “There is no doubt”
Anil Ananthaswamy, “African Land Grabs Could Lead to Future Water Conflicts,” New Scientist, May 26, 2011.
412 “Rich countries are eyeing Africa”
John Vidal, “How Food and Water Are Driving a 21st-Century African Land Grab,” Guardian, March 6, 2010.
413 an agricultural real estate boom in Africa
Lorenzo Cotula, “Analysis: Land Grab or Development Opportunity?,” BBC News, February 21, 2012.
414 Liberia’s land, for example, has been sold to private investors
Anjala Nayar, “African Land Grabs Hinder Sustainable Development,” Nature, February 1, 2012.
415 signed deals with foreign growers for 21.1 percent of its land
Cotula, “Analysis: Land Grab or Development Opportunity?”
416 was sold to investors after the country won its independence
Nayar, “African Land Grabs Hinder Sustainable Development.”
417 grow palm oil for biofuel on 2.8 million hectares of land
Vidal, “How Food and Water Are Driving a 21st-Century African Land Grab.”
418 calculated that 44 percent was dedicated to biofuels
Krumova, “Land Grabs in Africa Threaten Greater Poverty.”
419 United Arab Emirates purchased slightly more
Vidal, “How Food and Water Are Driving a 21st-Century African Land Grab.”
420 “Thousands of people will be affected and people will go hungry”
Ibid.
421 area of the nation of Pakistan—and that two thirds
W. Anseeuw et al., “Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South. Analytical Report Based on the Land Matrix Database,” CDE/CIRAD/GIGA, 2012.
422 people have claimed they were unjustly evicted
Ibid.
423 concerning difficulties in financing the projects
International Land Coalition, “Land Rights and the Rush for Land Report,” 2011.
424 will rely entirely on wheat imports by 2016
“Saudi Arabia Launches Tender to Buy 550,000 Tons of Wheat,” Saudi Gazette, August 30, 2012.
425 water from a deep nonrenewable aquifer
Brown, “This Will Be the Arab World’s Next Battle.”
426 80 to 85 percent of that water comes from underground aquifers
Reem Shamseddine and Barbara Lewis, “Saudi Arabia’s Water Needs Eating into Oil Wealth,” Reuters, September 9, 2011; Brown, Plan B 4.0.
427 will eventually involve desalination of seawater
Shamseddine and Lewis, “Saudi Arabia’s Water Needs Eating into Oil Wealth.”
428 locked up in the ice and snow of Antarctica and Greenland
Howard Perlman, U.S. Geological Survey, “Where Is Earth’s Water Located?,” September 7, 2012, http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthwherewater.html.
429 even energy-rich Saudi Arabia cannot afford it
Caline Malek, “Solar Desalination ‘the Only Way’ for Gulf to Sustainably Produce Water,” National, April 24, 2012, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/solar-desalination-the-only-way-for-gulf-to-sustainably-produce-water.
430 purchase the use of water-rich land in Africa
John Vidal, “What Does the Arab World Do When Its Water Runs Out?,” Guardian, February 19, 2011.
431 many desalination plants in the world—including in Saudi Arabia
“Saudi Arabia and Desalinisation,” Harvard International Review, December 23, 2010, http://hir.harvard.edu/pressing-change/saudi-arabia-and-desalination-0.
432 towing them to areas experiencing severe droughts
Bob Yirka, “Simulation Shows It’s Possible to Tow an Iceberg to Drought Areas,” PhysOrg, August 9, 2011, http://phys.org/news/2011-08-simulation-iceberg-drought-areas.html.
433 could supply 500,000 people with freshwater for a year
Ibid.
434 supplied with ample amounts of water, nutrients, and sunlight
“Does It Really Stack Up?,” Economist, December 9, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17647627.
435 rely on fish for approximately 15 percent
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “The State of Fisheries and Aquaculture,” 2012, p. 5, http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i2727e/i2727e00.htm.
436 from twenty-two pounds per person per year to almost thirty-eight pounds
Bryan Walsh, “The End of the Line,” Time, July 7, 2011.
437 one third of fish stocks in the oceans
Ibid.
438 reduced by 90 percent since the 1960s