The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change
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Rachel Ehrenberg, “The Facts Behind the Frack,” ScienceNews, September 8, 2012, http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/343202/title/The_Facts_Behind_the_Frack.
242 spread on roads, ostensibly for dust control
National Resources Defense Council, “Report: Five Primary Disposal Methods for Fracking Wastewater All Fail to Protect Public Health and Environment,” May 9, 2012, http://www.nrdc.org/media/2012/120509.asp.
243 “something wrong and dangerous, they should punish them”
Christopher Helman, “Billionaire Father of Fracking Says Government Must Step Up Regulation,” Forbes, July 19, 2012.
244 a potential tipping point
Joe Romm, ThinkProgress, “Gas Emissions Reduction Target for 2020,” January 13, 2009, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2009/01/13/5472/the-united-states-needs-a-tougher-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target-for-2020/.
245 frenzy of exploration for shale gas in China, Europe
Bryan Walsh, “In Hunt for Energy, China and Europe Explore Fracking,” Time, May 21, 2012.
246 Africa, and elsewhere
Ruona Agbroko, “S Africa Lifts Fracking Ban,” Financial Times, September 7, 2012.
247 U.S. horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies to China
Jerry Mandel, “Will U.S Shale Technology Make the Leap Across the Pacific?,” E&E News, July 17, 2012, http://www.eenews.net/public/energywire/2012/07/17/1.
248 particularly in northern and northwestern China
“Water, Water Everywhere,” China Economic Review, July 26, 2012.
249 the switch from coal to natural gas by electric utilities
Kevin Begos, “CO2 Emissions in US Drop to 20-Year Low,” Associated Press, August 17, 2012.
250 Coal has the highest carbon content
U.S. Energy Information Agency, “How Much Carbon Dioxide Is Produced When Different Fuels Are Burned?,” 2012, http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Air Emissions,” 2007, http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-and-you/affect/air-emissions.html.
251 Harriman, Tennessee, in my home state four years ago
Bobby Allyn, “TVA Held Responsible for Massive Coal Ash Spill,” Tennessean, August 23, 2012.
252 principal source of human-caused mercury in the environment
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Mercury: Basic Information,” February 7, 2012, http://www.epa.gov/hg/about.htm.
253 include at least some amount of methyl-mercury
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “What You Need To Know About Mercury in Fish and Shellfish,” June 20, 2012, http://water.epa.gov/scitech/swguidance/fishshellfish/outreach/advice_index.cfm#isthere.
254 cancellation of 166 new coal plants
Mark Hertsgaard, “How a Grassroots Rebellion Won the Nation’s Biggest Climate Victory,” Mother Jones, April 2, 2012.
255 1,200 new coal plants are now planned in 59 countries
Ailun Yang and Yiyun Cui, Global Coal Risk Assessment: Data Analysis and Market Research (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2012).
256 65 percent in the next two decades
International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook: Executive Summary,” 2011, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2011/.
257 the CO2 emissions would continue destroying the Earth’s ecosystem
Kurt Kleiner, “Coal to Gas: Part of a Low-Emissions Future?,” Nature, February 28, 2008.
258 70 to 75 percent of the carbon in coal for each unit of energy produced
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Air Emissions,” December 2007.
259 more expensive to produce and carry even harsher impacts for the environment
Bryan Walsh, “There Will Be Oil and That’s the Problem,” Time, March 29, 2012.
260 three quarters of the amount in the atmosphere
Rattan Lal, “Carbon Sequestration,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, February 2008.
261 his successor has made policy changes that are reversing
Jeffrey T. Lewis, “Pace of Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon Falls,” Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2012.
262 dramatic “dieback” of the Amazon at mid-century
Justin Gillis, “The Amazon Dieback Scenario,” New York Times, Green blog, October 7, 2011.
263 Indonesia and Malaysia—in order to establish palm oil plantations
Brad Plumer, “EPA Faces Crucial Climate Decision on Diesel Made from Palm Oil,” Washington Post, April 27, 2012.
264 peatlands contain more than one third of all the global soil carbon
Reynaldo Victoria et al., United Nations Environment Programme, “UNEP Yearbook: The Benefits of Soil Carbon,” 2012.
265 80 percent of global forest cover is in publicly owned forests
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010,” 2010, p. xxiv, http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/.
266 Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Borneo, and the Philippines
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “State of the World’s Forests 2011,” 2011, http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i2000e/i2000e00.htm.
267 especially cattle ranching
Doug Boucher et al., Union of Concerned Scientists, “Solutions for Deforestation-Free Meat,” 2012, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/forest_solutions/solutions-for-deforestation-free-meat.html.
268 as much as 22 percent of all carbon stored
Sharon Oosthoek, “Boreal Forests Ignored in Climate Change Fight,” CBC News, November 12, 2009, http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2009/11/11/boreal-carbon-climate-change.html.
269 symbiosis between the larch and the tundra is thereby disrupted
Douglas Fischer and Daily Climate, “Shift in Northern Forests Could Increase Global Warming,” Scientific American, March 28, 2011.
270 reproducing three generations per summer rather than one
Noah S. Diffenbaugh et al., “Global Warming Presents New Challenges for Maize Pest Management,” Environmental Research Letters 3 (2008).
271 “unprecedented outbreak of the mountain pine beetle”
David A. Gabel, “Expanding Forests in the Northern Latitudes,” Environmental News Network, March 23, 2011, http://www.enn.com/ecosystems/article/42501.
272 “the real culprit is water stress caused by climate change”
Justin Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors,” New York Times, October 1, 2011.
273 direct proportion to the rising temperatures
“More Large Forest Fires Linked to Climate Change,” ScienceDaily, July 10, 2006, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060710084004.htm; Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors.”
274 in the trees and plants themselves
Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors.”
275 rather than a net “sink,” withdrawing CO2 as the trees grow
Ben Bond-Lamberty et al., “Fire as the Dominant Driver of Central Canadian Boreal Forest Carbon Balance,” Nature, November 1, 2007; “Wildfires Turning Northern Forests into Carbon-Dioxide Sources,” CBC News, October 31, 2007, http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2007/10/31/boreal-forests.html.
276 eastern North America, Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia
Gabel, “Expanding Forests in the Northern Latitudes.”
277 $3.7 trillion in environmental costs
Pavan Sukhdev et al., The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Mainstreaming the Economics of Nature: A Synthesis of the Approach. Bonn: TEEB, 2010.
278 40 percent as many trees as the rest of the world put together
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “State of the World’s Forests 2009,” 2009, http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0350e/i0350e00.htm.
279 required to plant at least three trees per year
/> “China’s Hu Takes Part in Tree Planting,” UPI, April 5, 2009.
280 approximately 100 million acres of new trees
Gillis, “With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors.”
281 in trees include the U.S., India, Vietnam, and Spain
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “State of the World’s Forests 2011.”
282 compared to the rich variety supported by a healthy, multispecies primary forest
Jianchu Xu, “China’s New Forests Aren’t as Green as They Seem,” Nature, September 21, 2011.
283 carbon sequestered in the first few feet of soil
Damian Carrington, “Desertification Is Greatest Threat to Planet, Expert Warns,” Guardian, December 15, 2010.
284 10.57 percent of the Earth’s land surface covered by arable land
CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
285 health of the soil and interfere with the normal sequestration
Tom Philpott, “New Research: Synthetic Nitrogen Destroys Soil Carbon, Undermines Soil Health,” Grist, February 24, 2010, http://grist.org/article/2010-02-23-new-research-synthetic-nitrogen-destroys-soil-carbon-undermines/.
286 by pushing subsistence farmers to clear more forests
David Lapola et al., “Indirect Land-Use Changes Can Overcome Carbon Savings from Biofuels in Brazil,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 2010.
287 have proven that assumption to be wrong
Claude Mandil and Adnan Shihab-Eldin, International Energy Forum, “Assessment of Biofuels: Potential and Limitations,” February 2010, http://www.ief.org/news/news-details.aspx?nid=311.
288 20 to 50 percent of all living species on Earth within this century
Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change.
289 Approximately one third of all amphibian species
Camila Ruz, “Amphibians Facing ‘Terrifying’ Rate of Extinction,” Guardian, November 2011.
290 hit by a spreading fungal disease
Michelle Nijhuis, “A Rise in Fungal Diseases Is Taking Growing Toll on Wildlife,” Yale Environment 360, October 24, 2011.
291 the encroachment of human activities
Owen Clyke, “The Militarization of Africa’s Animal Poachers,” Atlantic, July 31, 2012; David Braun, “Human Encroachment Threatens Thousands of Gorillas in African Swamp,” National Geographic, November 24, 2009; Yaa Ntiamoa-Baidu, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, “West African Wildlife: A Resource in Jeopardy,” 1998, http://www.fao.org/docrep/s2850e/s2850e05.htm.
292 caused by a large asteroid crashing into the Earth
Anthony Barnosky et al., “Has the Earth’s Sixth Mass Extinction Already Arrived?,” Nature, March 2011.
293 “precipitated entirely by man”
Richard Leakey and Roger Lewin, The Sixth Extinction: Patterns of Life and the Future of Humankind (New York: Anchor Books, 1995), p. 235.
294 average 3.8 miles per decade toward the poles
Camille Parmesan and Gary Yohe, “A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems,” Nature, January 2003.
295 half of the mountain species had moved, on average
Craig Moritz et al., “Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA,” Science, October 2008.
296 reach the poles and the mountaintops and can go no farther
Elisabeth Rosenthal, “Climate Threatens Birds from Tropics to Mountaintops,” New York Times, January 21, 2011.
297 at risk because they cannot adapt to climate change quickly enough
Kai Zhu et al., “Failure to Migrate: Lack of Tree Range Expansion in Response to Climate Change,” Global Change Biology 18 (November 2011).
298 according to scientists, are facing a rising risk of extinction
Lucas Joppa et al., “How Many Species of Flowering Plants Are There?,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, July 2010.
299 United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity notes
United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, “Global Biodiversity Outlook 3,” January 2010, http://www.unep-wcmc.org/gbo-3_90.html, p. 51.
300 as a precautionary measure for the future of mankind
John Roach, “ ‘Doomsday’ Vault Will End Crop Extinction, Expert Says,” National Geographic, December 27, 2007.
301 carbon tax to the taxpayers but would have applied one third
Matt Kasper, “Rep. Jim McDermott Introduces Carbon Tax Law,” August 6, 2012, ClimateProgress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/06/641831/rep-jim-mcdermott-introduces-carbon-tax-law/.
302 go to carbon fuel companies
John Broder, “Obama’s Bid to End Oil Subsidies Revives Debate,” New York Times, January 31, 2011.
303 the dirtiest liquid fuel, kerosene, is heavily subsidized
Narasimha Rao, “Kerosene Subsidies in India: When Energy Policy Fails as Social Policy,” Energy for Sustainable Development, March 2012.
304 only a few years away from reaching that threshold
Alex Morales and Jacqueline Simmons, “Renewables from Vestas to Suntech Plan Profit without Subsidy,” Bloomberg, January 26, 2012.
305 utility sector oppose such measures
Joe Romm, “Who Killed the Senate RPS?,” ClimateProgress, June 27, 2007, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2007/06/27/201573/who-killed-the-senate-rps/.
306 including, most prominently, California
State of California, “California Renewables Portfolio Standard,” 2012, http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Renewables/index.htm.
307 install 500 megawatts of solar energy by 2020
Dave Roberts, “Why Do ‘Experts’ Always Lowball Clean-Energy Projections?,” Grist, July 19, 2012, http://grist.org/renewable-energy/experts-in-2000-lowballed-the-crap-out-of-renewable-energy-growth/.
308 China installed double that amount by 2010
Ibid.
309 goal was exceeded 22-fold and is expected
Ibid.
310 “weren’t just off, they were way off”
Ibid.
311 alternative to government regulations mandating reductions
John Fialka, “How a Republican Anti-Pollution Measure, Expanded by Democrats, Got Roots in Europe and China,” E&E News, November 17, 2011.
312 originally supported the idea
Ibid.
313 energy during their own past periods
International Energy Agency, “Energy Poverty,” 2012, http://www.iea.org/topics/energypoverty/.
314 even if it means that they too must shoulder
Arthur Max, “Developing Nations Pledge Actions to Curb Climate Change,” Associated Press, March 22, 2011.
315 costs from climate disruption will be borne by developing countries
World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010)
316 world now exceed those in rich countries
Alex Morales, “Renewable Power Trumps Fossils for First Time as UN Talks Stall,” Bloomberg News, November 25, 2011.
317 more than half of the installed global renewable energy capacity
Charles Kenny, “Greening It Alone,” Foreign Policy, August 1, 2011.
318 hampered the ability of many communities
Rick Jervis and Gregory Korte, “FEMA Could Run Out of Money over Stalemate,” USA Today, September 25, 2011.
319 caused more than $15 billion in damage
“Hurricane Irene 2011: One Year Anniversary of East Coast Storm,” Huffington Post, August 24, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/24/hurricane-irene-2011-2012_n_1826060.html.
320 and wildfires in 240 of its 242 counties
Patrik Jonsson, “Texas Wildfire Chief: Wildfires Still Raging, but ‘We Are Making Successes,’ ” Christian Science Monitor, April 21, 2011.
321 all-time-high temperature records were broken or
tied
Andrew Freedman, “Hot Summer of 2011 Rewrites Record Books,” Climate Central, September 8, 2011, http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/a-record-hot-summer-interactive-map/.
322 seven of them caused more than $1 billion in damage
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Extreme Weather 2012,” January 19, 2012.
323 more than half of the counties in the U.S.
David Ariosto and Melissa Abbey, “Historical Drought Puts Over Half of US Counties in Disaster Zones, USDA Says,” CNN, August 1, 2012.
324 Hurricane Sandy cost at least $71 billion
Matthew Craft, “Hurricane Sandy’s Economic Damage Could Reach $50 Billion, Eqecat Estimates,” Associated Press, November 1, 2012.
325 report supporting such border adjustments
United Nations Environment Programme and World Trade Organization, Trade and Climate Change, 2009, http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_climate_change_e.pdf.
326 has been a success in most of the nations, provinces, and regions
Janet Raloff, “Kyoto Climate Treaty’s Greenhouse ‘Success,’ ” ScienceNews, November 3, 2009, http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/49058/title/Science_%2B_the_Public__Kyoto_climate_treatys_greenhouse_success.
327 “The carbon market may be complex, but we live in a complex world”
Marton Kruppa and Andrew Allan, “Carbon Trading May Be Ready for Its Next Act,” Reuters, November 13, 2011.
328 will imminently begin cap and trade systems
Ibid.
329 Most significantly, California began implementing its system in 2012
Jason Dearen, “California’s Cap-and-Trade System to Launch with First Pollution Permits Auction,” Associated Press, November 12, 2012.
330 “it may become the biggest in the world, and allowances in that system would then give a global price signal”
Kruppa and Allan, “Carbon Trading May Be Ready for Its Next Act.”
331 experience that will be used to implement a nationwide cap and trade system by 2015
Lan Lan, “Beijing Preparing for Carbon Trading System,” China Daily, April 20, 2012.
332 almost 20 percent of the Chinese population
Alexandre Kossoy and Pierre Gioan, World Bank, “State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2012,” May 2012, p. 99, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_2012_Web_Optimized_19035_Cvr&Txt_LR.pdf.