Great Wave
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Italy
Istituto Centrale di Statistica, Annuario Statistico Italiano, 1878 + (Rome, 1878 +), mostly annual.
Japan
Sorifu Tokeikyoku, Resumé statistique de l’Empire du Japon, 1884–1940 (Tokyo, 1887–1940), mostly annual, published in Japanese and French.
Prime Minister’s Office, Bureau of Statistics, Japan Statistical Yearbook, 1949 + (Tokyo, 1949 +), published in Japanese and English.
Prime Minister’s Office, Bureau of Statistics, Annual Report on the Retail Price Survey (1964 +), published in Japanese and English.
Korea
National Bureau of Statistics, Annual Report of the Price Survey (Seoul, 1961 +), published in Korean and English.
Mexico
Dirección General de Estadistica, Anuario estadistico de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, 1893 + (Mexico City, 1894 +), not issued 1908–20, 1931–37.
Netherlands
Central Bureau voor de Statistick, Statisches Jaarboekje (1851–80), mostly annual; idem, Jaarcijfers voor Nederlanden Statistical Yearbook of the Netherlands, 1881 + (The Hague, 1882 +), mostly annual; published in Dutch and French 1884–1939, Dutch and German 1940–42, Dutch and English 1943–68; English alone, 1969 +.
New Zealand
Census and Statistics Office, Statistics of the Dominion of New Zealand (1853–1920), irregular; idem, New Zealand Official Yearbook, 1891 + (Wellington, 1892 +), annual.
Census and Statistics Department, Report on Prices, Wages, and Labour Statistics of New Zealand for the Year. . . . (Wellington, 1946 +), mostly annual.
Nigeria
Federal Office of Statistics, Annual Abstract of Statistics, 1960 + (Lagos, 1960 +).
Norway
Statistisk Sentralbyra, Statistisk Arbok, 1880 + (Oslo, 1881 +), mostly annual.
Poland
Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Rocznik Statystyczny, irregularly published since 1920/21 (Warsaw, 1922). From 1920 to 1938 the text was in Polish and French; from 1946 + issued also in German, Russian, and in English as The Statistical Yearbook of Poland.
Portugal
Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Anuário estatístico de Portugal, 1875 + (Lisbon, 1875 +), annual; text in Portuguese and French.
Romania
Directiunea Statisticei Generale, Buletin Statistic Romaniei, 1892–1911.
Directia Centrala de Statistica, Anuarul Statistic al Romaniei, 1902 + (Bucharest, 1904–41, 1957 +) annual; includes English translations.
Russia
Statistika Rossieskoie Imperie (1887–1904).
Annuaire de la Russie (1904–1911).
Narodnoe Khoziaistvo SSSR, Statistikii Sbornik, 1923–90 (Moscow, 1923–90), also issued in an English edition; idem, Statisticheskii Ezhedgodnik, 1955 + (Moscow, 1956–90).
Narodnoe Khoziaistvo, Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Statisticheskii Ezhedgodnik, 1992 + (Moscow, 1992 +).
Serbia
Matériaux pur la Statistique du Serbie (1888–1896).
Annuaire Statistique du Royaume de Serbie (1895–1908).
Spain
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Anuario Estadistico de España, 1858 + (Madrid, 1859–67, 1911–35, 1942 +), mostly annual.
Sweden
Statistiska Centralbyran, Statistisk Tidskrift: Sveriges Officielle Statistea (Stockholm, 1860–1913), title varies.
Statistika Centralbyran, Statistik arsbok för Sverige, 1914 + (Stockholm, 1914 +) annual; text in Swedish, French, and English to 1951, Swedish and English thereafter.
Switzerland
Statistisches Jahrbuch der Schweiz: Annuaire Statistique de la Suisse, 1891 + (Bern, 1891–96, 1898 +); mostly annual; some volumes include thirty-year summaries of statistical data; a statistical atlas of Switzerland was issued in place of the volume for 1897.
United Kingdom
Central Statistical Office, Annual Abstract of Statistics, annual from 1854; the oldest national statistical yearbook in continuous publication. Most volumes include data for the preceding fifteen years. The first volume (1854) includes statistical material for the period 1840–53.
Social Trends (London, HMSO) (1970 +).
United States
Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1878 + (Washington, 1878 +), annual.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Prices and Price Indexes (Washington, 1902 +), monthly and annual, with historical compilations from 1890; idem, Monthly Labor Review and Handbook of Labor Statistics (Washington, 1904 +), consumer prices and price indexes, monthly and annual, in various formats from 1904, with historical compilations from 1890.
Yugoslavia
Savezni Zavod za Statistiku i Evidenciju, Statisticki Godisnjak [Statistical Yearbook] 1929–39 (Belgrade, 1929–39), mostly annual, issued in Serbian and French; idem, Godisnjak Jugoslavije [Yearbook of Yugoslavia], 1954 +; Statiosticki Godisnjak Jugoslavije (Belgrade, 1955 +), issued in Serbo-Croatian, Russian and English.
Analysis of Primary Materials: Historical Metrology
Many learned disciplines contribute to the history of prices. Indispensable is the science of historical metrology; that is, the study of weights and measures. The literature of this field is surveyed in Z. Herkov and M. Kurelac, Bibliographia Metrologiae Historiae (2 vols., Zagreb, 1971–73).
Standard works include Ronald E. Zupko, A Dictionary of English Weights and Measures from Anglo-Saxon Times to the Nineteenth Century (Madison, 1968); idem, Italian Weights and Measures from the Middle Ages to the Nineteenth Century (Memoirs of the American Philosophical Society; vol. 145, Philadelphia, 1981); Horace Doursther, Dictionnaire universel des poids et mesures anciens et modernes, contenant des tables des monnaies de tous les pays, an older but still useful work (Brussels, 1840; rpt. Amsterdam, 1965); M. Bloch, “Prix et mesures . . .,” Annales d’Histoire Économique et Sociale 2 (Paris, 1930) 385–86; A. Machabey, Poids et mesures du Languedoc et des provinces voisines (Toulouse, 1953); A. E. Berriman, Historical Metrology (New York, 1953); John J. McCusker, “Weights and Measures in the Colonial Sugar Trade . . .,” William and Mary Quarterly 3d ser. 30 (1973) 599–624; idem, “Les équivalents métriques des poids et mesures du commerce colonial aux XVIIe et XVIIIe siécles,” Revue française d’Histoire d’Outre-Mer (1974) 349–65; M. H. Sauvaire, “Matériaux pour servir à l’histoire de la numismatique et de la métrologie musulmanes,” Journal Asiatique 8th ser. 10 (1887).
A large literature has developed on the measurement of prices and the construction of price series, particularly with regard to questions of quality-change. Leading works include Zvi Griliches, ed., Price Indexes and Quality Change (Cambridge, 1971); P. A. Armknecht and D. E. Weyback, “Adjustments for Quality Change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index,” Journal of Official Statistics 2 (1989) 107–23; Robert J. Gordon, The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices (Chicago, 1990); various publications of the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, including Sarah Gousen, Producer Price Measurement: Concepts and Methods (Washington, 1986), and BLS Handbook of Methods for Surveys and Studies (Washington, 1988). An important collection of essays is Murray F. Foss, Marilyn E. Manser, and Allan H. Young, eds., Price Measurements and Their Uses (Chicago, 1993).
Secondary Sources: General Works
Michel Morineau has described the history of prices as an “histoire sans frontières.” More than most other other fields of historical scholarship, its major problems have been studied in a collaborative way by scholars of many nations, in a spirit that transcends differences of ideology.
Since 1945, however, one nation has dominated the field. Four groups of French historians have made the most important contributions to price history in the second half of the twentieth century.
The most active is the Annales school, which takes its name from the journal that has become one of the most important outlets for research on the history of prices, as well as the most influential historical journal in the twentieth century. One of its founders, Marc Bloch, contributed many essays including “
Le problème d’histoire des prix: Comment recueillir les anciens prix?” Annales d’Histoire Économique et Sociale 3 (1931) 227–28; idem, “Le salaire et les fluctuations économiques à longue période,” Revue Historique 173 (1934); idem, “L’histoire des prix: Remarques critiques,” Annales d’Histoire Sociale 1 (1939) 141–51; idem, “Prix, monnaies, courbes,” Annales E.S.C. 1 (1946) 355–57; idem, “Deux lettres,” Annales E.S.C. 2 (1947) 364–66.
The co-founder of Annales, Lucien Febvre, also addressed larger problems of price history in “Le problème historique des prix,” Annales d’Histoire Économique et Sociale 2 (1930) 67–80.
Another annalist who has contributed many writings on this subject through the years is René Baehrel. His essays include “Economie et histoire: À propos des prix,” in Eventail de l’ histoire: Hommage à Lucien Febvre (2 vols., Paris, 1953); idem, “Prix, superficies, statistique, croissances,” Annales E.S.C. 16 (1961) 699–722; idem, “L’exemple d’un exemple: Histoire statistique et prix italiens,” Annales E.S.C. 9 (1954) 213–26; idem, “Pitié pour elle et pour eux,” Annales E.S.C. 10 (1955) 55–62; idem and J. A. Faber, “Prix nominaux, prix metalliques et formule d’Irving Fisher . . .” Annales E.S.C. 17 (1962) 732–36.
A second school of French historiography, separate from the Annales group but increasingly overlapping, derives from an older tradition of French Economic history. It is represented by the work of Henri Hauser, “Statistici storici di fronte alla storia dei prèzzi,” Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali 45 (1937) 874–882; idem, “L’histoire des prix: Controverse et methode,” Annales d’Histoire Économique et Sociale 8 (1936) 163–66.
A scholar of high importance was François Simiand, who did much to link an empirical method with broad conceptual model-building in the history of prices and wages. One of his most important works is Le salaire, l’évolution sociale et la monnaie (Paris, 1932).
Another central figure in this tradition is Ernest Labrousse. His two major works are Esquisse du mouvement des prix et des revenus en France au XVIIIe siécle, preface by H. Sée and R. Picard (2 vols., Paris, 1933; rpt. 1984); and La crise de l’ économie française à la fin de l’Ancien Régime et au début de la Revolution (Paris, 1944, new edition, 1990). This was the first volume, the only one published, of a projected multi-volume work subtitled Aperçus généraux. Labrousse also published many shorter essays, including “Observations complémentaires sur les sources et la methodologie pratique de l’histoire des prix et salaires au XVIIIe siècle,” Revue d’Histoire Économique et Sociale 24 (1938) 292–308; idem, “Le mouvement des prix au XVIIIe siécle: les sources et leur emploi,” Bulletin de la Societé d’Histoire Moderne (1937). A large part of the influence of Labrousse derived from his role as teacher. After World War II, he trained an entire generation of French économic historians. A study of his life and work is Jean-Yves Grenier and Bernard Lepetit, “L’experience historique, à propos de C.-E. Labrousse,” Annales E.S.C. 44 (1989) 1337–60. Still other economic approaches are taken by Alfred Marc, L’évolution des prix depuis cent ans (Paris, 1958).
A third group of French historians have come to the subject mainly from numismatics and the study of money. A prolific scholar in this group is Pierre Vilar, who has given us “Histoire des prix, histoire géneérale,” Annales E.S.C. 4 (1949) 29–45; “Remarques sur l’histoire des prix,” Annales E.S.C. 16 (1961) 110–15; and A History of Gold and Money, 1450–1920 (London, 1976); see also Jean Meuvret, “Simple mise au point,” Annales E.S.C. 10 (1955) 48–54.
A fourth group are French demographic historians, associated with the Institut National d’Etudes Demographiques. Their leader Louis Henry invented a new method of demographic history by “family reconstitution,” which has spread widely through the academic world. Many of their monographs include a chapter on prices, which are prominent in their analysis of demographic problems.
These various French schools had a great influence in Belgium, Italy, and Spain. Belgian historians have made many excellent contributions to price history. See Herman Van Der Wee, “Prix et salaires: Introduction methodologique,” Cahiers d’Histoire des Prix 1 (1956).
Italian scholars also have taken a leading role in this field. Prominent among them are Luigi Einaudi, “Schemi statistichi e dubbi storici,” Rivista di Storia Economica 5 (1940); idem, “Dei criteri informatori della storia dei prèzzi; questo devono essere espressi in peso d’argento ο d’oro o negli idoli usati dagli uomini?” in Ruggiero Romano, ed., I prèzzi in Europa dal XIII secolo a oggi (Turin, 1967), 505–17; idem, “Storia dei salari e storia dei prèzzi,” Rivista Storica Italiana 138 (1965) 311–20; and idem, “Introduzione,” to Prèzzi in Europa. Other Italian price historians of high importance include Amintore Fanfani and Ruggiero Romano, whose many publications are listed above and below.
Among many contributions by German historians are C. W. Asher, Die Geschichte und Bestimung der Preise (Dresden, 1858–59); Ernst Wagemann, Konjunkturlehre: eine Grundlegung zur Lehre vom Rhythmus der Wirtschaft (Berlin, 1928); Moritz L. Elsas, “Zur Methode des Preisgeschichte,” Zeitschrift für die Geschichte Staatswissenschaft 94 (1933); Hermann Klauer, Gold produktion und Preisniveau: Versuch einer Kritik der monataren Theorie der langen Wellen (Berlin, 1941); and Alfred Jacobs, “Preisgeschichte,” in Handwörterbuch der Sozialwissenschaften (Gottingen, 1964), 8: 459–476.
A Marxist perspective from eastern Europe appears in Witold Kula, “Histoire et économie: la longue durée,” Annales E.S.C. 15 (1960) 48–54.
American historians have contributed less than their European colleagues to the conceptual literature of price historiography. Exceptions include Earl Hamilton, “The Use and Misuse of Price History,” Journal of Economic History 4 (1944) supplement, 47–60; Walt Rostow, “Histoire et sciences sociales: La longue durée,” Annales E.S.C. 14 (1959) 710–14; Eric E. Lampard, “The Price System and Economic Change: A Commentary on Theory and History,” Journal of Economic History 20 (1960) 617–37.
Long-Term Secular Trends: French, German, and Italian Models
On the problem of secular trends in price history, the literature in France, Germany, and Italy is fundamentally different in its descriptive patterns from that in Britain and the United States.
Two classic works were written by French economist François Simiand in the 1930s. In Les fluctuations économiques à longue période et la crise mondiale (Paris, 1932) and especially Recherches anciennes et nouvelles sur le mouvement général des prix du XVIe au XIXe siècle (Paris, 1932), Simiand described a secular pattern of price movements roughly similar to the great waves in this book, but not precisely the same. Working from the data of Thorold Rogers, d’Avenel, and others, he concluded that prices had tended to move in a series of long surges (“hausse majeure”) and declines (“baisse majeure”), which he called alpha and beta phases. Simiand guessed that the prime mover was change in the supply of precious metal but cautioned against a premature monetarist model. For discussions of Simiand’s work, see M. Levy-Leboyer, “L’Heritage de Simiand: Prix, profit et termes d’échange au XIXe siècles,” Revue Historique 243 (1970) 77–120; F. Crouzet, “The Economie History of Modem Europe,” Journal of Economic History 31 (1971) 135–52.
Simiand’s work had a major influence on French price historians C-E. Labrousse and his student M. A. Chabert, who also found a rhythm of alpha and beta phases but argued that price fluctuations were regulated mainly by the size of harvests. See C.-E. Labrousse, Esquisse du mouvement des prix et des revenus en France au XVIIIe siècle (Paris, 1932); idem, La crise de l’économie française à la fin de l’Ancien Régime et au début de la Révolution (Paris, 1944); M. A. Chabert, Essai sur les mouvements des prix et des revenus en France de 1798 à 1820 (Paris, 1949).
Simiand’s “alpha-beta” phases and Labrousse’s conception of agrarian rhythms were combined by German historian Wilhelm Abel into a broad secular pattern of “conjunctures” and “crises” in which periods of prosperity alternated with long depressions. Abel buil
t a stronger empirical base than Simiand by constructing indices of grain prices computed in silver equivalents. In this evidence, Abel found a pattern of “long-term trends” almost identical in their timing with the great waves in this book, but different in their substance and cause. He believed that price revolutions were periods of prosperity, and price equilibria were eras of depression. Further, he concluded that until the nineteenth century, the cause of these secular trends was change in the “density of population.” Abel observed that “until the mid-nineteenth century prices and income developed exactly as Malthus had predicted.” See Agrarkrisen und Agrarkonjunktur: Eine Geschichte der Land und Ernährungswirtschaft Mitteleuropas seit dem höhen Mittelalter (Hamburg and Berlin, 1935, 1966, 1978). The third edition of this work, much revised, is translated as Agricultural Fluctuations in Europe from the Thirteenth to the Twentieth Centuries (London and New York, 1980).
At the same time that Abel produced this work, other European scholars built different structures of interpretation on Simiand’s base. Three such works were J. Lescure, Hausses et baisses de prix de longue durée (Paris, 1933, 1935); Robert Marjolin, Prix, monnaie et production: Essai sur les mouvements économiques de longue durée (Paris, 1941); and Marie Kerhuel, Les mouvements de longue durée des prix (Rennes, 1935).