Cameron at 10

by Anthony Seldon

  WRIGHT, JEREMY – Attorney General, 2014–15.

  YOUNG, GEORGE – Leader of the House of Commons, 2010–12. Chief Whip, 2012–14.

  Other Ministers

  BOLES, NICK – Minister for Planning, Department for Communities and Local Government, 2012–14. Minister for Skills and Equalities, 2014–15.

  DUNCAN, ALAN – Minister for International Development, 2010–14.

  FEATHERSTONE, LYNNE – Minister for the Home Office, 2014–15. Parliamentary Under-Secretary for International Development, 2012–14. Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Equalities, 2010–12. LD.

  HERBERT, NICK – Minister for Policing and Criminal Justice, 2010–12.

  WEBB, STEVE – Minister for Pensions, 2010–15. LD.

  Office of Deputy Prime Minister (All Liberal Democrats)

  ASTLE, JULIAN – Special Adviser, 2010–15.

  COLBOURNE, TIM – Special Adviser, 2010–13. Deputy Chief of Staff, 2014–15.

  MACKENZIE, POLLY – Senior Adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister, 2010–15.

  OATES, JONNY – Deputy Communications Adviser, 2010. Chief of Staff, 2010–15.

  PIETSCH, LENA – Press Secretary, 2010–15.

  REEVES, RICHARD – Director of Strategy, 2010–12.

  Whitehall (Treasury, Special Advisers, Civil Servants, Military and Security)

  CAINE, JONATHAN – Special Adviser to Owen Paterson, 2010–12. Special Adviser to Theresa Villiers, 2012–15.

  CARNEY, MARK – Governor of the Bank of England, 2013–15.

  CASEY, LOUISE – Director General, Troubled Families, 2011–15.

  CHOTE, ROBERT – Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, 2010–15.

  COWPER-COLES, SHERARD – UK Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2009–10.

  CUMMINGS, DOMINIC – Special Adviser to Michael Gove, 2011–13.

  CUNLIFFE, JON – British Permanent Representative to the EU, 2012–13. Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Financial Stability, 2013–15.

  CUNNINGHAM, FIONA – Special Adviser to Theresa May, 2010–14.

  DARROCH, KIM – British Permanent Representative to the EU, 2007–12. National Security Adviser, 2012–15.

  DEIGHTON, PAUL – Commercial Secretary to the Treasury, 2013–15.

  DEVEREUX, ROBERT – Permanent Secretary, Department of Work and Pensions, 2011–15.

  EVANS, JONATHAN – Director General of MI5, 2007–13.

  FRASER, SIMON – Permanent Under-Secretary of the Foreign Office, 2010–15.

  GEIDT, CHRISTOPHER – Private Secretary to the Sovereign, 2007–15.

  HANDS, GREG – Deputy Chief Whip, 2013–15.

  HANCOCK, MATT – Minister for Skills and Enterprise, 2013–14. Minister for Energy, 2014–15. Minister for Business and Enterprise, 2014–15.

  HARRISON, RUPERT – Chief of Staff to George Osborne, 2010–15.

  HOUGHTON, NICK – Chief of the Defence Staff, 2013–15.

  KERSLAKE, BOB – Head of the Home Civil Service, 2012–14.

  KING, JULIAN – Ambassador to Ireland, 2009–11. Director General of the Northern Ireland Office, 2011–14.

  KING, MERVYN – Governor of the Bank of England, 2003–13.

  LAMB, GRAEME – Commander Field Army, 2007–09.

  LEWIS, LEIGH – Permanent Secretary at the Department for Work and Pensions, 2006–11.

  LYALL GRANT, MARK – British Ambassador to the United Nations, 2009–15.

  MACPHERSON, NICHOLAS – Permanent Secretary at the Treasury, 2005–15.

  PARKER, ANDREW – Director General of MI5, 2013–15.

  PARKER, NICK – Deputy Commander, International Security Assistance Force, 2009–10. Commander-in-Chief, Land Forces, 2010–11. Commander Land Forces, 2011–12.

  PATEY, WILLIAM – British Ambassador to Afghanistan, 2010–12.

  POWELL, HUGH – Deputy National Security Adviser, 2013–14.

  RICHARDS, DAVID – Chief of the General Staff, 2009–10. Chief of the Defence Staff, 2010–13.

  RICKETTS, PETER – National Security Adviser, 2010–12. British Ambassador to France, 2012–15.

  ROGERS, IVAN – British Permanent Representative to the European Union, 2013–15.

  ROGERS, THEA – Special Adviser to the Chancellor, 2013–15.

  RUSSELL, BETH – Principal Private Secretary to the Chancellor, 2011–13. Director, Personal Tax, Welfare and Pensions, 2013–15.

  SANTS, HECTOR – Chief Executive of the Financial Services Authority, 2007–12.

  SAWERS, JOHN – Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), 2009–14.

  SHEINWALD, NIGEL – British Ambassador to the United States, 2007–12.

  SHIPLEE, HOWARD – Director General of the Universal Credit Programme, 2013–14.

  STANHOPE, MARK – First Sea Lord, 2009–13.

  STIRRUP, JOCK – Chief of the Defence Staff, 2006–10.

  STROUD, PHILIPPA – Special Adviser to Iain Duncan Smith, 2010–15.

  TIMOTHY, NICK – Special Adviser to Theresa May, 2010–15.

  TUCKER, PAUL – Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, 2009–13.

  VICKERS, JOHN – Chair of the Independent Commission on Banking, 2010–11.

  WALL, PETER – Chief of the General Staff, 2010–14.

  WESTMACOTT, PETER – British Ambassador to the United States, 2012–15.

  WILSHAW, MICHAEL – Chief Inspector of Education, Children’s Services and Skills, 2012–15.

  WOLFSON (NÉE SHAWCROSS), ELEANOR – Special Adviser to the Chancellor, 2010–15.

  YOUNGER, ALEX – Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), 2014–15.

  Conservative Party (All members of, or closely aligned with, the Conservative Party)

  BRADY, GRAHAM – MP for Altrincham and Sale West. Chairman of the 1922 Committee, 2010–15.

  CROSBY, LYNTON – Australian political strategist. Director of 2015 campaign, 2012–15.

  CRUDDAS, PETER – Conservative Party Co-treasurer, 2011–12.

  DAVIDSON, RUTH – Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, 2011–15.

  JOHNSON, BORIS – Mayor of London, 2008–15.

  MAJOR, JOHN – Prime Minister, 1990–1997.

  NORMAN, JESSE – MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire.

  SOAMES, NICHOLAS – MP for Mid Sussex.

  SPICER, MICHAEL – MP for West Worcestershire. Chairman of 1922 Committee, 2001–10.

  STEWART, RORY – MP for Penrith and The Border. Chair of the Defence Select Committee, 2014–15.

  Other UK

  ALEXANDER, DOUGLAS – Shadow Foreign Secretary, 2011–15.

  BALLS, ED – Shadow Chancellor, 2011–15.

  BERCOW, JOHN – Speaker of the House of Commons, 2009–15.

  BROWN, GORDON – Prime Minister, 2007–10.

  DARLING, ALISTAIR – Chair of the Better Together Campaign, 2012–14.

  FARAGE, NIGEL – Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), 2010–15.

  HARMAN, HARRIET – Acting Leader of the Labour Party, May–September 2010. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, 2007–15.

  LEVESON, BRIAN – Judge. Chairman of the Leveson Inquiry, 2011–12.

  LUCAS, CAROLINE – Leader of the Green Party, 2008–12.

  MILIBAND, ED – Leader of the Labour Party, 2010–15.

  ROBINSON, PETER – First Minister of Northern Ireland, 2008–15. Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, 2008–15.

  SALMOND, ALEX – First Minister of Scotland, 2007–14. Leader of the Scottish National Party, 2004–14.

  STEVENS, SIMON – CEO of NHS England, 2014–15.

  STURGEON, NICOLA – First Minister of Scotland, 2014–15. Leader of the Scottish National Party, 2014–15.

  WEI, NAT – Social entrepreneur. Government adviser, 2010–11.

  USA

  BIDEN, JOE – Vice President, 2009–15.

  BLOOMBERG, MICHAEL – Mayor of New York City, 2002–13.

  CLINTON, HILLARY – Secretary of State, 2009–13

 
DONILON, THOMAS – National Security Advisor, 2010–13.

  EMANUEL, RAHM – White House Chief of Staff, 2009–10.

  GATES, ROBERT – Secretary of Defense, 2006–11.

  GIBBS, ROBERT – White House Press Secretary, 2009–11.

  KERRY, JOHN – Secretary of State, 2013–15.

  KNAPP, BILL – Media strategist and consultant.

  OBAMA, BARACK – President of the United States, 2009–15.

  RICE, SUSAN – National Security Advisor, 2013–15.

  YELLEN, JANET – Chair of the United States Federal Reserve, 2014–15.

  Europe

  ASHTON, CATHERINE – High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, 2009–14. Vice President of the European Commission, 2010–14.

  BARNIER, MICHEL – European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, 2010–14.

  BERLUSCONI, SILVIO – Prime Minister of Italy, 1994–1995, 2001–06, 2008–11.

  DRAGHI, MARIO – President of the European Central Bank, 2011–15.

  HOLLANDE, FRANÇOIS – President of France, 2012–15.

  JUNCKER, JEAN-CLAUDE – Prime Minister of Luxembourg, 1995–13. President of the European Commission, 2014–15.

  KATAINEN, JYRKI – Prime Minister of Finland, 2011–14.

  KENNY, ENDA – Taoiseach, 2011–15.

  LAGARDE, CHRISTINE – Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, 2011–15.

  MERKEL, ANGELA – Chancellor of Germany, 2005–15.

  MEYER-LANDRUT, NIKOLAUS – Adviser to Angela Merkel on European Affairs, 2011–15.

  MONTI, MARIO – Prime Minister of Italy, 2011–13.

  ORBÁN, VIKTOR – Prime Minister of Hungary, 2010–15.

  RAJOY, MARIANO – Prime Minister of Spain, 2011–15.

  REINFELDT, FREDERIK – Prime Minister of Sweden, 2006–14.

  RENZI, MATTEO – Prime Minister of Italy, 2014–15.

  RUTTE, MARK – Prime Minister of the Netherlands, 2010–15.

  SARKOZY, NICOLAS – President of France, 2007–12.

  SCHULZ, MARTIN – Leader of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, 2004–12, 2014. President of the European Parliament, 2014–15.

  THORNING-SCHMIDT, HELLE – Prime Minister of Denmark, 2011–15.

  TUSK, DONALD – Prime Minister of Poland, 2007–14. President of the European Council, 2014–15.

  VAN ROMPUY, HERMAN – President of the European Council, 2009–14.

  WESTERWELLE, GUIDO – German Foreign Minister, 2009–13.

  International (UN, other foreign PMs, etc.)

  AL-ABADI, HAIDER – Prime Minister of Iraq, 2014–15.

  AL-ASSAD, BASHAR – President of Syria, 2000–15.

  AL-MALIKI, NOURI – Prime Minister of Iraq, 2006–14.

  AL-THANI, HAMAD BIN JASSIM BIN JABER (‘HBJ’) – Prime Minister of Qatar, 2007–13.

  BAN KI-MOON – Secretary General of the United Nations, 2007–15.

  DALAI LAMA – Tibetan spiritual leader, 1950–2015.

  ERDOGAN, RECEP TAYYIP – Prime Minister of Turkey, 2003–14. President of Turkey, 2014–15.

  GADDAFI, MUAMMAR – De facto ruler of Libya, 1969–2011.

  HARPER, STEPHEN – Prime Minister of Canada, 2006–15.

  JIABAO, WEN – Premier of China, 2003–13.

  JINTAO, HU – President of China, 2002–12.

  KARZAI, HAMID – President of Afghanistan, 2004–14.

  KEQIANG, LI – Premier of China, 2013–15.

  LAVROV, SERGEI – Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, 2004–15.

  MEDVEDEV, DMITRI – President of Russia, 2008–12. Prime Minister of Russia, 2012–15.

  NETANYAHU, BENJAMIN – Prime Minister of Israel, 2009–15.

  POROSHENKO, PETRO – President of Ukraine, 2014–15.

  PUTIN, VLADIMIR – President of Russia, 1999–2008, 2012–15. Prime Minister of Russia, 2008–12.

  SINGH, MANMOHAN – Prime Minister of India, 2004–14.

  USHAKOV, YURI – Adviser to President Putin, 2008–15.

  XIAOMING, LIU – Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom, 2010–15.

  YANUKOVYCH, VIKTOR – President of Ukraine, 2010–14.

  YI, WANG – Chinese Foreign Minister, 2013–15.

  INTRODUCTION

  The Twenty-First-Century Baldwin?

  David Cameron did not expect to win the general election on 7 May 2015. Alongside many commentators, pollsters and most of the country, he felt outright victory, however narrow, was out of reach. The result gave him an authority he had never before possessed, not least within the Conservative Party, and ensures that his premiership will be seen as one of significant historical importance. Even before the election he was the sixth longest-serving Conservative prime minister since 1900, after Margaret Thatcher (eleven years), Winston Churchill (nine), Stanley Baldwin (eight), John Major (seven), and Harold Macmillan (six). His announcement in March 2015 that he will not fight another election means that if he serves most of a second term, he will become the second longest-serving Conservative prime minister since 1902. By the time of the 2015 general election, he had served nine and a half years as leader of the Conservative Party, making him one of the longest-serving leaders in the party’s history.

  There are other reasons why Cameron is a figure worthy of our attention. When he assumed office in May 2010, he was the youngest prime minister of any party since Lord Liverpool in June 1812. The chancellor, George Osborne, the youngest holder of that office for over 120 years, became quite exceptionally powerful during Cameron’s premiership. Was this effectively a joint leadership? Did their youth and inexperience – neither had any ministerial track record – have downsides? Cameron was the first prime minister since the 1930s to head a peacetime coalition government. How did he approach leading a joint administration with the Lib Dems? What role did official deputy prime minister Nick Clegg play, and what did the Liberal Democrats get out of the deal? They came to power during the worst economic crisis for eighty years. Did they over-dramatise the problems, and how well did they tackle them? This book looks in depth at these questions.

  Cameron at 10 is divided into forty chapters, each discussing an event, decision or episode in the life of the prime minister and Number 10.1 It would be impossible to relay all that happened in these five crowded years; hence the focus on those forty stories we deem the most telling. To help capture the unrelenting pace of events, we have written most of the account in the present tense, bringing life to the medium of contemporary history. The book is based on extensive inside interviews – over 300 – and a variety of documents. When the government archives are opened, further details will naturally come to light, but we believe that the principal facts and indeed judgements on these five years will not change substantially.

  What kind of prime minister was David Cameron? What were his personal strengths and weaknesses? Harold Macmillan, a fellow Etonian, is the prime minister to whom Cameron has most usually been compared, not least by himself.2 Similarities exist, certainly, above all in their pragmatic and measured approach to statecraft. But Macmillan was to the left of Cameron and was the more cautious figure. Stanley Baldwin provides the more revealing comparison, above all during his leadership of the 1931–5 National Government. Although Labour’s Ramsay MacDonald was nominally prime minister during those four years, the Conservatives were the largest party, and Baldwin practically led the government as Lord President of the Council. Baldwin’s keen sense of public opinion provides a strong similarity with Cameron, as does being neither doctrinaire nor ideologically driven.3 Each man possessed a very English, patrician vision of the nation and a strong commitment to social justice and service. Both exuded a natural sense of confidence and did not have to exert themselves over others. When the occasion demanded, and it often did, they were cutters and trimmers, in an effort to hold their parties and coalitions together. Both were criticised for this; but they would respond that national priorities, party manageme
nt and coalition cohesion necessitated their ducking and weaving. They brushed aside setbacks and doubts about them. Cameron, despite being twenty years Baldwin’s junior when in office, was the more comfortable and self-confident figure, coming across as unruffled because he was unruffled.4

  The coalitions of 1931–5 and 2010–15 had striking similarities too. The prime objective of each was economic recovery after the two worst economic crises of the last hundred years, caused by international instability and mismanagement by predecessor governments. Baldwin and Cameron were criticised for their economic judgements and for the uneven and slow pace of recovery. Both men were ideally suited to manage the dynamics of coalition government and working out what was possible, although Cameron was the less sensitive to disquiet within the party. The primary achievement too of both administrations was similar: overseeing recovery in difficult economic times, while providing stability at home at a time of considerable international unrest and uncertainty.

  Both Baldwin and Cameron relished their roles as ‘head of the nation’. It appealed to their shire Tory sense of duty that coursed through their veins. Both men, if pushed, would probably see themselves as much national as sectional leaders. Cameron was not at his strongest uplifting the nation with his oratory, in contrast to Baldwin, notably in the India debates in 1931 and during the abdication crisis in 1936. He lacked Baldwin’s gifts as ‘teacher’ to the nation, inspiring the country with new understandings. If democracy is in part government by explanation, Baldwin understood this intuitively. Could Cameron have done more and earlier to persuade the Scottish people of the merits of the union in the 2014 referendum? Cameron was uncomfortable with anything that smacked of rabble-rousing or courting an emotional response, and this restraint often came at the expense of taking the public with him. He found it notably difficult to sound passionate during the 2010 general election, or until late in the day in the 2015 election.

  Successful prime ministers need outstanding qualities of character combined with high-order skills of leadership. How did Cameron fare? He proved one of the most psychologically balanced prime ministers since 1900, too balanced in the eyes of some, who craved more passion and flair. From his first days in Number 10, officials noted his equilibrium in contrast to the volcanic Gordon Brown. Cameron indeed exhibited many of the qualities that officials most admire. Impressive intellectually (Vernon Bogdanor, his tutor, said he was ‘one of the ablest – and nicest – students I taught at Oxford. He achieved an outstanding first-class degree’5), he disposed of the torrent of paperwork that fills prime ministerial boxes and mastered his briefs with alacrity. Like Baldwin and Macmillan, he was interested in what the press had to say, but not obsessively so. Unlike Brown, Blair and Major, he did not work himself up into a lather if he or his government was being criticised. Like Baldwin and Churchill, he understood the importance of relaxation, and was unashamed to take evenings and holidays off in an effort to escape the constant intrusions into a prime minister’s life. He possessed a strong constitution and could refresh himself with half an hour’s sleep when necessary. His appetite for hard work was under-recognised by many contemporaries, who preferred to categorise him as a ‘chillaxed’ or even as an indolent prime minister, a charge also levelled at Baldwin, in his case with justice, not least by Neville Chamberlain.