Thinking, Fast and Slow

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Thinking, Fast and Slow Page 63

by Daniel Kahneman


  Klein, Gary

  Knetsch, Jack

  know, use of word

  knowledge; reconstruction of past states of

  kouros

  Krueger, Alan

  Kunreuther, Howard

  Kuran, Timur

  labor negotiations

  Lady Macbeth effect

  language, complex vs. simple

  Larrick, Richard

  Larson, Gary

  law, see legal cases law of large numbers

  law of small numbers; and bias of confidence over doubt

  laziness of System 2

  Layard, Richard

  leaderless group challenge

  leadership and business practices; at Google

  LeBoeuf, Robyn

  legal cases: civil, damages in; DNA evidence in; fourfold pattern and; frivolous; loss aversion in; malpractice; outcome bias in

  leisure time

  less-is-more pattern

  Lewis, Michael

  libertarian policies

  Lichtenstein, Sarah

  life: evaluation of; stories in; satisfaction in; thinking about

  Linda problem

  List, John

  loans

  logarithmic functions

  loss aversion; in animals; enhanced; goals as reference points in; in legal decisions; status quo and

  loss aversion ratio

  losses

  lotteries

  Lovallo, Dan

  Love Canal

  luck

  lying

  Malkiel, Burton

  Malmendier, Ulrike

  malpractice litigation

  Mao Zedong

  march of historyuote>

  Markowitz, Harry

  marriage; life satisfaction and

  Mathematical Psychology (Dawes, Tversky, and Coombs)

  matter, relation of mind to

  McFarland, Cathy

  media, availability heuristic and

  medical school admissions

  medical survey problem

  medicine; expertise in; malpractice litigation; overconfidence in; physicians; unique cases in; unusual treatments in

  Mednick, Sarnoff

  Meehl, Paul

  meetings

  memory, memories; associative, see associative memory; availability heuristic and, see availability; duration neglect in; experienced utility and; illusions of; and the remembering self; of vacations

  mental accounts

  mental effort, see effort mental energy

  mental shotgun

  mere exposure effect

  messages, persuasive

  metaphors

  Michigan/Detroit problem

  Michigan State University

  Michotte, Albert

  Miller, Dale

  mind, relation of matter to

  Mischel, Walter

  miswanting

  MIT

  money and wealth: cultural differences in attitudes toward; happiness and; income vs. leisure; mental accounts and; poverty; priming and; utility of

  Moneyball (Lewis)

  mood, see emotions and mood Morgenstern, Oskar

  Moses illusion

  motivation

  movies

  “MPG Illusion, The” (Larrick and Soll)

  mug experiments

  Mullainathan, Sendhil

  Müller-Lyer illusion

  multiple regression

  Mussweiler, Thomas

  mutual funds

  names: complicated; of famous people

  narrative fallacy

  narrow framing; disposition effect

  Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)

  negativity dominance

  negotiations

  neuroeconomics

  New York Times, The

  New York University

  9/11

  Nisbett, Richard

  Nixon, Richard

  Nobel Prize

  norms

  norm theory

  novelty

  Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein)

  nutrition

  Oakland A’s

  Obama, Barack

  obesity

  Odean, Terry

  Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs

  one-sided evidence

  Oppenheimer, Danny

  optimal experience

  optimism; in CEOs; resilience and

  optimistic bias; competition neglect; in entrepreneurs; overconfidence; planning fallacy; premortem and; risk taking and

  Oregon Research Institute

  organ donation

  organizations

  outcome bias

  outside view

  ou>

  pain; chronic; cold-hand experiment and; colonoscopies and; duration neglect and; injection puzzle and; memory of; operation experiment and; peak-end rule and; in rats

  paraplegics

  parole

  past: and confusing experiences with memories; hindsight bias and; regret and

  pastness

  pattern seeking

  Pavlov, Ivan

  peak-end rule

  persuasive messages

  physicians; malpractice litigation and

  piano playing and weight, measuring

  plane crashes

  planning fallacy; mitigating

  plausibility

  pleasure; in rats

  Plott, Charles

  poignancy

  political experts

  political preference

  Pólya, George

  Pope, Devin

  Porras, Jerry I.

  positive test strategy

  possibility effect: gambles and; threats and

  post-traumatic stress

  poverty

  precautionary principle

  predictability, insensitivity to

  predictions and forecasts; baseline; clinical vs. statistical; disciplining; of experts, see expert intuition; extreme, value of; formulas for, see formulas; increasing accuracy in; low-validity environments and; nonregressive; objections to moderating; optimistic bias in; outside view in; overconfidence in; planning fallacy and; short-term trends and; valid, illusion of; see also probability

  preference reversals; unjust

  premonition, use of word

  premortem

  pretentiousness language

  pricing policies

  priming; anchoring as

  t="-5%">

  Princeton University

  probability; base rates in, see base rates; decision weights and, see decision weights; definitions of; and disciplining intuition; less-is-more pattern and; Linda problem and; overestimation of; plausibility and; and predicting by representativeness; prior, insensitivity to; professional stereotypes and; of rare events, see rare events; representativeness and, see representativeness; similarity and; subjective; as sum-like variable; see also predictions and forecasts

  probability neglect

  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

  professional stereotypes

  professorial candidates

  prospect theory; in Albert and Ben problem; blind spots of; cumulative; decision weights and probabilities in; fourfold pattern in; frames and; graph of losses and gains in; loss aversion in; reference points in

  “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk” (Kahneman and Tversky)

  prototypes

  psychiatric patients

  psychological immune system

  psychology, teaching

  psychopathic charm

  psychophysics

  psychotherapists

  pundits; see also expert intuition punishments: altruistic; rewards and; self-administered

  pupil dilation

  questionnaire and gift experiments

  questions; substitution of, see substitution

  Rabin, Matthew

  radiologists

  rafters, skilled

  rail projects

  randomness and chance;
misconceptions of Random Walk Down Wall Street, A (Malkiel)

  rare events; overestimation of; regret and

  rational-agent model

  rationality

  Rationality and the Reflective Mind (Stanovich)

  ">rats

  Reagan, Ronald

  reciprocal priming

  recognition

  recognition-primed decision (RPD) model

  Redelmeier, Don

  reference class forecasting

  regression to the mean; causal interpretations and; correlation and; difficulty in grasping; two-systems view of

  “Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature” (Galton)

  regret

  religion

  remembering self

  Remote Association Test (RAT)

  reorganizations in companies

  repetition

  representativeness; base rates and; see also base rates; in Linda problem; predicting by; professional stereotypes and; sins of; in Tom W problem

  research: artifacts in; hypothesis testing in; optimism in

  resemblance; in predictions

  resilience

  responsibility

  retrievability of instances

  reversals; unjust

  rewards; self-administered

  Rice, Condoleezza

  risk assessment; aggregation and; broad framing in; decision weights in, see decision weights; denominator neglect and; by experts; and format of risk expression; fourfold pattern in; for health risks; hindsight bias and; laws and regulations governing; loss aversion in; narrow framing in; optimistic bias and; policies for; possibility effect and; precautionary principle and; probability neglect and; public policies and; small risks and; of technologies; terrorism and; see also gambles

  risk aversion

  risk seeking

  “Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making, The” (Dawes)

  Rosett, Richard

  Rosenzweig, Philip

  Royal Dutch Shell

  Royal Institution

  Rozin, Paul

  < Philip

  Rumsfeld, Donald

  Russell Sage Foundation

  Russia

  Saddam Hussein

  sadness

  safety; health risks and; health violation penalties and; precautionary principle and

  samples, sampling: accidents of; and bias of confidence over doubt; law of large numbers; law of small numbers; size of; small, exaggerated faith in

  Samuelson, Paul

  San Francisco Exploratorium

  Savage, Jimmie

  Save More Tomorrow

  Schelling, Thomas

  Schkade, David

  school size

  Schwarz, Norbert

  Schweitzer, Maurice

  Science

  Scientific American

  scientific controversies

  scientific research: artifacts in; hypothesis testing in; optimism in

  Scottish Parliament

  self-control

  self-criticism

  Seligman, Martin

  selves; experiencing; remembering

  sets

  Shafir, Eldar

  similarity judgments

  Simmel, Mary-Ann

  Simon, Herbert

  Simons, Daniel

  Simpson, O. J.

  single evaluations; joint evaluations vs.

  ski jump event

  skills; acquisition of; environment of; feedback and practice in; illusions of; in stock-picking

  Slovic, Paul

  Slovic, Roz

  slow thinking

  <="0>

  smiles, in face reading

  smiling; availability heuristic and

  Smith, Vernon

  socializing

  social science

  Soll, Jack

  somatic marker hypothesis

  soul

  Sources of Power (Klein)

  Soviet Union

  Spinoza, Baruch

  Sports Illustrated

  Stalin, Joseph

  Standard & Poor’s (S&P)

  Stanford University

  Stanovich, Keith

  statistics and statistical thinking; and accidents of sampling; base rates and, see base rates; Bayesian; and bias of confidence over doubt; causes and; chance in; deciding on size of sample; extreme outcomes and; faith in small samples; law of large numbers; law of small numbers; sample size decisions and; see also probability

  status quo, defending

  Steiger, James H.

  stereotypes; causal; about professions

  Steve the librarian

  stock market

  stock picking

  stock portfolios

  stock trading, insider

  Stone, Arthur

  stories, life

  St. Petersburg paradox

  Strack, Fritz

  strangers, assessment of

  Strangers to Ourselves (Wilson)

  Streep, Meryl

  strength, assessments of

  structured settlements

  Stumbling to Happiness (Gilbert)

  substitution; and mood heuristic for happiness; and 3-D heuristic

  success, uot

  sum-like variables

  sunk-cost fallacy

  Sunstein, Cass

  Super Bowl

  supply and demand

  surgeons

  Surowiecki, James

  surprise

 

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