survey and gift experiments
survival-mortality experiment
symbols
System 1; characteristics of; conflict between System 2 and
System 2; conflict between System 1 and; laziness of
Taleb, Nassim
talent
task sets
task switching
Tate, Geoffrey
taxes; child exemptions and
temperament
temptation
Tenet, George
terrorism
Tetlock, Philip
Thaler, Richard
theory-induced blindness
therapists
thinking like a trader
Thomas, Lewis
threats; possibility effect and
3-D heuristic
tickets; buying and selling of; sunk cost in
time; use of
time pressure
Todorov, Alex
token experiment
Tom W problem
“Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth” (Barber and Odean)
transactions and trades
Traviata, La (Verdi)
Truman, Harry
trustworthiness, assessments of
truth, illusions of
Tversky, Amos
understanding, illusion of
unique cases
University College London
University of California at Berkeley
University of Chicago
University of Michigan
University of Minnesota
University of Oregon
unlikely events, see rare events unknown unknowns
utility; decision; experienced; indifference map and; injection puzzle and; meanings of
utility theory; certainty effect and; decision weights and probabilities in
vacations
vaccines
validity: of clinical vs. statistical predictions; evaluating; illusion of
Vallone, Robert
value; see also utility Vancouver Island
Venn diagrams
venture capitalists
victim compensation
vividness; of outcomes; of probabilities
vocabulary: of girls vs. boys; simple vs. pretentious
Vohs, Kathleen
vomit, effect of word
Von Neumann, John
voting
Wainer, Howard
walking
wars
Washington Post, The
wealth, see money and wealth
weather
Weber, Ernste>
weight and piano playing, measuring
Weiner, Howard
well-being; climate and; defining; disposition for; duration weighting and; see also happiness
West, Richard
what you see is all there is (WYSIATI); confidence and; curriculum team and; Julie problem and; optimistic bias and; premortem and; professorial candidate problem and; soldiers’ performance and; Tom W problem and
wheel of fortune
“wicked” environments
Wilson, Timothy
Wimbledon tournament
wine
Winter Olympics
Wisdom of Crowds, The (Surowiecki)
witnesses’ evidence
Woods, Tiger
words: complex vs. simple; emotionally-loaded
World Cup
World War II
worry
WYSIATI, see what you see is all there is
X-rays
Xu, Jing
Yale exam problem
Yom Kippur War
Zajonc, Robert
Zamir, Eyal
Zeller, Kathryn
Zweig, Jason
Zwerling, Harris
Farrar, Straus and Giroux
18 West 18th Street, New York 10011
Copyright © 2011 by Daniel Kahneman
All rights reserved
Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to reprint the following previously published material: “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” from Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157, copyright © 1974 by Amos Tversky and Dan"0%" te>X-rays Science. “Choices, Values, and Frames” from The American Psychologist, copyright © 1983 by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Reprinted by permission of the American Psychological Association.
Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to reprint the following images: Image courtesy of Paul Ekman Group, LLC. Image from “Cues of Being Watched Enhance Cooperation in a Real-World Setting” by Melissa Bateson, Daniel Nettle, and Gilbert Roberts, Biology Letters (2006); reprinted by permission of Biology Letters. Image from Mind Sights by Roger N. Shepard (New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1990); reprinted by permission of Henry Holt and Company. Image from “Human Amygdala Responsivity to Masked Fearful Eye Whites” by Paul J. Whalen et al., Science 306 (2004). Reprinted by permission of Science.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kahneman, Daniel, 1934–
Thinking, fast and slow / Daniel Kahneman.—1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN: 978-0-3742-7563-1
1. Thought and thinking. 2. Decision making. 3. Intuition. 4. Reasoning. I. Title.
BF441 .K238 2011
153.4'2—dc23
2011027143
www.fsgbooks.com
*5, 47.
*Feature introduced in detail in part 4.
*Feature introduced in detail in part 4.
*Feature introduced in detail in part 4.
*Feature introduced in detail in part 4.
*Feature introduced in detail in part 4.
*This article originally appeared in Science, vol. 185, 1974. The research was supported by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by the Office of Naval Research under contract N00014-73-C-0438 to the Oregon Research Institute, Eugene. Additional support for this research wass r"0%" wid provided by the Research and Development Authority of the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel.
*This article was originally presented as a Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award address at the American Psychological Association meeting, August 1983. This work was supported by grant NR 197-058 from the U.S. Office of Naval Research. Originally published in American Psychologist, vol. 34, 1984.
Table of Contents
Introduction
1. The Characters of the Story
2. Attention and Effort
3. The Lazy Controller
4. The Associative Machine
5. Cognitive Ease
6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes
7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
8. How Judgments Happen
9. Answering an Easier Question
10. The Law of Small Numbers
11. Anchors
12. The Science of Availability
13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk
14. Tom W’s Specialty
15. Linda: Less is More
16. Causes Trump Statistics
17. Regression to the Mean
18. Taming Intuitive Predictions
19. The Illusion of Understanding
20. The Illusion of Validity
21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas
22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It?
23. The Outside View
24. The Engine of Capitalism
25. Bernoulli’s Errors
26. Prospect Theory
27. The Endowment Effect
28. Bad Events
29. The Fourfold Pattern
30. Rare Events
31. Risk Policies
32. Keeping Score
33. Reversals
34. Frames and Reality
35. Two Selves
36. Life as a Story
37. Experienced Well-Being
38. Thinking About Life
Conclusions
Appendix A: Judgment Under Uncertainty
Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index
Thinking, Fast and Slow Page 64