On Shaky Ground
Page 47
State University of New York Earthquake Research Center, 370n
Steinbrugge, Dr. Karl V., 173–175, 223, 359–361n
task force report (1969), 173–175, 186
Stewart, Captain Merrill, 35, 36, 39, 40, 53, 56–59, 63, 64, 95–100
strain-release cycle as causative mechanism in earthquakes along tectonic plate boundaries, 362n
explanation, 354n
Strait, Gary, 333, 334
Strait of Juan De Fuca, 22
stratigraphic geology, 22
stratovolcanoes, 133
Stuart family, 41, 57, 59
Stuart, Sammie Marie, 41, 57, 59
Stuart, Smokey, 41, 57, 59
subduction
process, 17
subduction zone earthquakes, 364n
Chile, 17, 20
developing theory of, 241, 242
explanation of sequence, Alaska, 1964, 51–53, 70, 71
Japan, 17, 20
mechanism of Alaska Great Earthquake, 1964, 95
subduction zone volcanoes, 253
Sullivan, Walter, 154, 357n
Surface-Wave Magnitude Scale explanation, 376
Swan, James, 23
Indian legends transcribed, 23, 24
Sykes, Dr. Lynn, 233, 234
Sylmar, California (in the San Fernando Valley), 179
Tachbayn Seismological Observatory, Mexico City, Mexico, 244
Tacoma, Washington, 255, 258, 345
Tadzhikistan, USSR, 233
Talkeetna, SS (Alaska Steamship Company vessel), 38
Tangshan, China, 229–232, 235, 236
Task Force 9, Anchorage Alaska, 318, 320, 371–372n
tectonic plates, 51, 52, 70
North America, 20
tectonic subsidence, 17, 20, 21, 24, 150, 163, 357n
tectonic uplift (emergence), 150, 163, 355n, 357n
Tejon Pass, California, 165
Tennessee, 12, 144
future earthquake threat to, 350
Tennessee Earthquake Information Center, Memphis, 301, 302, 370n
address, 382
Texaco
Seward tank farm, 33, 83, 91, 105
Texas, 12
Thatcher, Dr. Wayne, 325
Thomason, Donalee, 323–325
Donalee Site, 323
Thompson, Ralph (Chena’s third mate), 64, 95, 96, 122
Three Sisters, Oregon, 258
Tobin, William (Bill), 72–74, 110
Tokaido-Nankido region, Japan
earthquakes of 1944, 1946, 241
seismic gap, 241
Tokyo, Japan, 119, 241, 258
1923 earthquake, 241
Torres, George, 334
Trans-Alaska Pipeline, 123, 319
Travelall
rented vehicle for Karen McNally’s expedition to Mexican coast, 299
Stuart family vehicle on Valdez dock, 41, 57, 59
Truman, Harry, 255
tsunami, 16, 23, 52, 104–107, 118–120, 150, 355n
definition, 354n
Heaton and Snaveley, “Possible Tsunami Along Northwestern Coast of the United States Inferred from Indian Traditions,” 353n
Turkey Flat, Parkfield, California, 327
Turnagain Heights (Anchorage), 45–48, 66, 70, 75–77, 110–113, 117, 124, 312–316, 318, 320, 349, 371–372n
Twin Otter (aircraft manufactured by de Havilland Aircraft Corporation), 124–126
Unakwik Inlet, Alaska, 51, 53
underwater earthquakes, 159
unified magnitude scale, 360n
Union Oil
Valdez Tank Farm, 96
Universidad Autónoma de Mexico institute of Geophysics, 243
University of Alaska, 315
University of California at Berkeley, School of Earth Sciences, 165, 328
University of California at Riverside, 190, 191, 193, 194
University of California at Santa Cruz, 295
Charles F. Richter Seismological Laboratory, 279
University of Nevada, 265, 266
University of Texas at Galveston
Geophysics Laboratory, 240, 242, 243, 245, 246, 364n
University of Washington, 115, 117, 252, 301, 341–346
Geology Department, 19
unreinforced masonry buildings. See: seismic bombs.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. See: Corps of Engineers.
U.S. Congress, 235–237, 242, 270, 300, 328
Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, 30
U.S. Department of Energy, 265
U.S. Forest Service, 251, 269
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 18, 22, 23, 115, 117, 123–126, 134, 150, 162–164, 166, 168, 169, 171, 173, 194, 197, 203, 235, 242, 243, 246, 251, 252, 254, 261–270, 279, 280, 301, 302, 309, 315, 323–328, 342–345, 348, 357n, 359n, 364n, 366–367n
Earthquake Monitoring Center (Golden, Colorado), 291, 336, 357n
first formal earthquake prediction, 279
informational meetings, Mammoth Lakes, 269, 270
Miller and Dobrovolny Report on Geological Hazards in Anchorage (see citation, page 377, under Chapter 3). See also: 45, 315, 316
Notice of Potential Volcanic Hazard (re: Mammoth Lakes), 262, 267, 272, 273
Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering, 369n
Seattle seminar, October 1985, 19, 21, 22
Volcanic Hazards Program, 266
USGS. See: U.S. Geological Survey.
Utah, 139, 169
future threat to, 350
Wheeler surveys of, 169
Valdez, Alaska, 30, 33–41, 51, 53–64, 95–102, 122–126, 271, 315, 319
Valdez cannery, 99, 102, 117
Valdez dock, 34, 35, 37–41, 53, 54, 56–60, 97, 319
Valdez Dock Company, 37–39, 54, 63
Valdez glacier, 36
Valdez Harbor, 57
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 20, 347
Vancouver, Washington, 251–254, 257
Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, 24, 118
Van Horn Ranch, Parkfield, California, 327
Van Norman Dam or Reservoir. See: Lower Van Norman Dam or Reservoir.
Vema, (schooner), 158, 358n
Veterans Administration Hospital at Sylmar, California, 180–181, 183, 185
Vladivostok, USSR, 118
volcanology, 133
Voltaire (French philosopher and author of Candide), 355n
Waatch Village, Washington, 23
Wadati, Dr. Kiyoo, 156, 160
Waikiki Beach, Honolulu, Hawaii, 119
Walker, Bryce (author of Earthquake), 355n
Wallace, Dr. Robert, 161–167, 169–171, 173–175, 194, 197, 200, 203, 223, 359n, 361–363n
Wallace Creek, California, 203, 207, 208, 210
War Hawks, the, 139
Wasatch Mountain Range, Utah, 169, 309
Washington, D.C., 130, 131, 139, 146, 175, 256, 271, 300–302, 309, 353n, 356n, 370n
Washington Department of Community Development, 374n
Washington Department of Emergency Management, 346
Seismic Safety Council, 346
Washington State, 251–260, 300, 301, 366n
earthquake potential, 15–25, 350
Mount St. Helens eruption, 251–260
1949 earthquake, 21
1965 earthquake, 21
Wegener, Alfred, 155–157, 159, 163, 357n, 358n, 364n
continental drift, theory of, 155–157
weird geysers of sand. See: sandblows.
Wesson, Dr. Rob, 251, 252
Wheeler surveys of Utah, 169
Whidbey Island, Washington, 22
White Mountains, California, 177, 259
Whittier, Alaska, 124
Whittier, California, 331–340
Willapa Bay, Washington, 342, 343
Wood, Dr. Harry, 362n
World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network, 150, 158, 159, 357n
Wyoming, 139
Yak
ima, Washington, 256
Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, 259, 357n
hot spot, 366n
Yingkou, China, 226–229
Yosemite National Park, California, 250, 258, 259
Zhou Enlai (Chou En-lai), 225
People’s War on Earthquakes, 225
Zoback, Dr. Mark, 328, 373n
Zodiac Manor, Anchorage, Alaska, 314
zone of extension
explanation, 358n
Acknowledgments
The senior seismologist sat back thoughtfully in the midst of his crowded office, the desk covered with papers-in-progress, letters, and other pressing matters, his bookshelves laden with the written chronicles from decades of scholarly and precise work.
“Yes, I’ll help you. The public needs to know, and we don’t have the means to communicate how urgent these things really are.”
I have heard essentially the same statement from scores of scientists, professors, government and industrial representatives, and others during the last three years—people who really didn’t have the time to help me achieve what one professor laughingly referred to as a “poor man’s Ph.D.,” the minimum necessary threshold of knowledge required to write this book. Nevertheless, they gave their valuable time to the project to help combat a worrisome byproduct of technological and scientific advancement: the decreasing ability of the average American to maintain a basic understanding of the very subjects that will most affect us and change our lives (and society) in the decades to come. If I had not had access to the continuous assistance of such professionals, from first contact through final galley proofs, this work would never have been able to achieve such a degree of accuracy and scientific precision.
Science in general, and the geophysical sciences in particular, are human endeavors—and exciting ones at that. Conveying that central human element to you has been a prime goal. That is why I’ve presented such individuals as Dr. Kerry Sieh and Dr. Brian Atwater in a narrative style with the pacing (not the fabrication) of a fiction novel. I wanted to place you there with Dr. Sieh in the Mojave Desert on the ragged edge of great discovery, and to take you to that misty Northwest meadow with Dr. Atwater as he spaded into the banks of the Waatch River, equally poised on the brink of a seminal and socially significant discovery. I intended those scenes to convey the mystery and the excitement and the accomplishment of individual effort because all too often science is seen as dry or boring, even though that is exactly the opposite of the truth. I also wanted you to feel the human struggles inherent in such discoveries, the agony and ecstasy and serendipitous aspects that are the same in our common human experience whether we are piloting a spacecraft, cutting a significant corporate deal, or changing the face of the geophysical sciences.
I do not, however, want to leave you with the idea that the men and women whom I have spotlighted worked alone. As they themselves have repeatedly pointed out to me, each paper and probe was an amalgam of their personal and professional efforts in conjunction with scores of equally impressive colleagues. For purposes of telling the story, however, some must be singled out. The fact that those singled out are wholly representative of their colleagues means that this area of science is not just exciting for a few, it is exciting and fraught with opportunity for all who enter with an open and inquisitive mind and a dedication to hard work spiced by the prospect of significant accomplishment.
There are literally hundreds of people who have helped during the years of research, the seventy-five thousand miles of travel, and the 150 hours of taped interviews that underlie this work, but among them is a cadre of men and women to whom I owe an extra vote of thanks and appreciation:
Dr. Brian Atwater of the USGS not only devoted many hours over several interviews to the task of explaining the nuances of his research as well as the major implications, he was gracious enough to invite me along on one of his research trips to the coastal area of Washington State near Willapa Bay. While he and an associate jumped in and out of a canoe through a long day of looking at the banks of the Bear River during an exceptionally low tide, I provided ballast and endless questions. The opportunity to see nose-to-nose the same dark layers of ancient, submerged meadows (and a subsequent trip at his direction to Neah Bay) provided vital elements of research. I also am in his debt for his careful perusal of portions of the book as it progressed.
Dr. Karen McNally of the University of California at Santa Cruz has also been more than generous with her time through several visits to her office and numerous phone calls, not to mention her assistance in reviewing parts of the manuscript for accuracy. Her help, and that of an associate, Dr. Fredereko Guendel of Costa Rica, were pivotal in my understanding of the Central American seismicity problems and the subduction zones in southern Mexico.
Dr. Kerry Sieh of Caltech spent hours of his time on a rainy September afternoon in 1986 explaining the mysteries of the San Andreas in great detail, providing much-needed copies of his professional papers and other supporting research, and directions to his research site at Pallett Creek. That plus his fielding of phone calls and his thorough review and correction of the chapters concerned with the San Andreas research were of inestimable value to the precision of this work.
At USGS Western Headquarters in Menlo Park, California, I was given unlimited time and invaluable assistance by a gentleman who has been called “Mr. Alaska” by the geological community for his decades of pioneering research for the survey, Dr. George Plafker. I am particularly in his debt for his careful reading and correction of more than half of the manuscript, and all the sections concerning Alaska in 1964, and for his wealth of facts and references that helped guide my understanding of the tectonic processes that erupted beneath the forty-ninth state in that amazing year.
The senior scientist who is generally known with great affection and respect throughout geophysics as the “father” of paleoseismology (though he defers that title to Karl Gilbert), Dr. Robert Wallace, spent several hours with me in his Menlo Park office, and in doing so provided many keys to various aspects of the subject. In addition, he too helped significantly in the review process, for which I am very appreciative.
Also at Menlo Park, Dr. David Hill spent an early afternoon with me going over the Mammoth Lake, California, situation, and the history of what had transpired when the infamous warning notice was issued in 1982. Dr. Hill was also kind enough to review the chapter on Mammoth Lakes for accuracy, as well as answer numerous telephonic questions.
At Caltech in Pasadena, California, USGS seismologist Dr. Thomas H. Heaton provided voluminous information, research material, and assistance, and followed up later by being available to help me fine-tune my understanding of what he and colleague Dr. Stephen H. Hartzell had postulated as a potential great subduction-zone earthquake danger for the Pacific Northwest.
At USGS Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, former USGS chief geologist Dr. Robert Hamilton and Dr. Robert Wesson patiently explained a wide range of subjects, from the research into the strata of the New Madrid Fault, to the events following the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State. Their time and the reference materials they provided helped immensely.
In Alaska, I was given great assistance by two distinguished Anchorage citizens who often in the past have found themselves on the opposite ends of debates relating to urban progress where it clashes with earthquake preparedness: Robert Atwood, publisher of the Anchorage Times, and Dr. Lidia Selkregg, formerly of the University of Alaska faculty. I very much appreciate the time both these good people gave me, the materials they furnished, and their immensely helpful reviews of the chapters concerning Alaska and Anchorage. The time that Anchorage Times editor-in-chief Bill Tobin spent with me in an Anchorage coffeeshop relating his frightening encounter with the great earthquake was very helpful—and I particularly appreciate the pieces of J. C. Penney’s tile facade and the turn-signal lever from his crushed Buick, which he brought along to give additional substance to a memory in some ways all too visceral
, in other ways all too distant and unreal.
I owe, as well, a debt of gratitude to a well-respected senior seismologist who gave me considerable assistance on the subject of New Madrid, Missouri—Professor Otto Nuttli of St. Louis University, who died in late spring, 1988, after a long and distinguished career of contribution to geophysics and to his fellow man. Dr. Nuttli will be missed, and remembered.
In addition, I am indebted to the efforts and the time given by the following people:
Charleston, South Carolina: Professor Charles Lindbergh of The Citadel, Professor Joyce Bagwell of the Baptist College at Charleston, and Charleston City Building Inspector Doug Smits.
Memphis, Tennessee: Dr. Arch Johnston, director of the Tennessee Earthquake Information Center at Memphis State University, and his associates.
New Madrid, Missouri: Virginia Carlson of the New Madrid Historical Museum, former mayor James Craven, and Don Lloyd.
Palisades, New York: Dr. Roger N. Anderson of the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University.
Washington, D.C.: Dr. Frank Press, president, U.S. National Academy of Sciences; Dr. John Filson of the USGS; Dr. Walter Hays of the USGS; Dr. Michael Gaus of the National Science Foundation; Ugo Morelli of the Federal Emergency Management Agency; Dr. Henry W. Coulter, USGS, retired; Gary Aldridge, legislative assistant to Senator Alan Cranston of California; and Dr. Paula Gori of the USGS.
Denver, Colorado: Dr. Waverly Person of the USGS; Joe McGregor and Carol Edwards of the USGS Photo Library.
Anchorage, Alaska: Warren Hines; Dick Reeve (son of Bob Reeve and head of Reeve Aleutian Airlines); Robert and Baxter Rustigan; A. J. Joy (who talked to me briefly under a gentle snowfall on the edge of the new Turnagain bluff, where his house now sits as new and perilous view property); and Dr. Perry Mead.
Seward, Alaska: Lee Poleske, museum curator, who opened up especially for me on a Sunday; Virginia Darling; Bernie Hulm; Jackie Deck, Seward librarian, who also helped me on that same clear and cold Sunday afternoon, opening the library and her excellent files; Bev and Willard Dunham; Dan Seavey; Mr. and Mrs. Doug McRae; and from the Anchorage Pioneer Home, Margaret Hofemeister, former civil defense director.
Valdez, Alaska: City Treasurer Tom Gilson; Valdez Dock Company owner John T. Kelsey; Marion and Red Ferrier; Mrs. Dorothy Clifton, representative of the Valdez Historical Society; Tom McAlester, former fire chief and now port services coordinator; and most especially Joe Leahy, director of the City of Valdez Museum, who spent an entire day showing me around and providing assistance in the teeth of a howling, subzero winter day.