Rumors of Honor (System States Rebellion Book 2)

by Dietmar Wehr

  “The offensive part of Oracle’s strategy is designed to force the enemy’s hand into attacking Sparta prematurely, and this is how we’ll accomplish that. A task force composed of unarmored cruisers and modified freighters carrying ground forces will attack specific economic and military targets on Earth and in the SOL system. These targets will include shipyards, fabrication plants for ship parts, command facilities, training and support facilities for ground forces, commercial shipping and any navy ships that happen to be on Earth at the time. Targets containing civilians will be ordered to evacuate before those targets are fired upon. With careful planning and execution, civilian casualties will be kept to a minimum. The long term impact on the FED’s ability to prosecute the war will be small, but the population will realize how vulnerable they are if we should decide at a later point that civilians are legitimate targets. Their reaction is expected to polarize public opinion between two opposites. One extreme will call for a negotiated end to the war, while the other will demand an immediate retaliatory strike on Sparta. Oracle predicts that General Trojan will be ordered to launch an attack on Sparta with whatever forces he can quickly organize. By the time that attack force reaches Sparta, we’ll be ready for it and, here’s the risky part, if we can defeat the attempt and inflict serious losses on the FED forces, to be quickly followed up with another precision strike on Earth, then public support for a negotiated peace should soar and the Federation Council will be forced to make a peace overture.

  “In terms of defending Sparta, Oracle is recommending that as soon as we finish building the two cruisers that are under construction right now, we concentrate all further construction here on Sparta exclusively on missile boat variants. Construction on other member planets will continue to include jump-capable warships. With minor modifications, those warships will be capable of carrying externally, from other member planets to Sparta, missile boats that have already been built. The estimate is that by the time the FEDs attack, Sparta will have over 50 missile boats, plus 20 cruisers, plus over 100 ground-based missile batteries.”

  When it was clear that there was a break in her presentation, Janicot responded. “What odds does Oracle give for a successful outcome of this strategy, Major?”

  “One chance in three, Admiral.”

  Janicot tried to keep his face from showing his dismay. “Why so low?”

  “It’s a function of the combined probabilities of each component event. The successful conclusion of the first attack on Earth is not a sure thing. The pressure on General Trojan may not be strong enough to make him act prematurely. But most of all, the battle at Sparta may not be the clear victory that would be needed for the second attack on Earth to take place quickly enough to galvanize the civilian population. If these events take longer than expected, the FED buildup at Makassar will start to play a role as well by stiffening the backbones of their politicians. Finally, Oracle is including an adjustment that represents its best guess as to how much Majestic might degrade our chances. If the FEDs didn’t have Majestic, the odds would be almost 2 to 1 in our favor.”

  “I have trouble believing that Majestic would make that much of a difference,” said Janicot.

  “Well, referring back to what I said earlier about the difficulty of Oracle predicting what Majestic could do, my staff and I are convinced that Oracle has actually underestimated Majestic’s impact.”

  “Is there any way we can improve the odds more than that?” he asked. Foster hesitated and Janicot picked up on that. “There’s something more you haven’t told me yet. What is it?”

  “Within the next 12-18 months, we’ll know whether the strategy I’ve just outlined will work. If we’re still at war after that, then something’s gone wrong. We would then need to switch to a different strategy that is difficult to predict at this point. Oracle was asked what initiatives could be started now that would at least give our side more options for the long term strategy. Only two initiatives had any chance of improving our odds. The problem is that both involve a high degree of uncertainty with regards to timing. If the timing is quick, our odds increase, but if the timing is slow, we might actually make the odds worse.”

  “Okay. Let’s hear them,” said Janicot.

  “Yes, sir. The first option has to do with a shift in our shipbuilding strategy. Right now each of the 15 most developed member planets of the SSU are building ships based on common designs. The output of construction is limited by each planet’s technical, industrial and fiscal constraints. However, we could adopt the same building strategy as the FEDs. In other words, we pick a planet that has abundant raw materials and is not currently colonized. We then import enough industry so that it can expand capacity by itself and let it ramp up to the point where we can build large numbers of ships quickly too. Where the timing uncertainty comes in is a) how quickly can a suitable planet, one that is unknown to the FEDS, be identified, b) how quickly can the new site be made self-sufficient and c) how fast can capacity be ramped up? It may turn out that the war becomes effectively lost before output from the new site can make a difference, although…” She let the sentence remain unfinished.

  “Although what, Major?”

  Foster took a deep breath. “Well, as long as the new site remains undiscovered by the FEDs, in theory it can keep right on building warships even if the rest of the SSU has been reconquered. A massive attack on Makassar and/or Hadley months after everyone on Earth thinks the war is over would be a huge psychological blow.”

  “Hm. That’s an interesting scenario but not one I’d want to count on. Tell me about the other option.”

  “Yes, sir. The other option has the advantage of giving the overall probability of success the biggest boost but has the disadvantage of having the most uncertainty over timing. If we could develop a breakthrough in jump technology whereby our ships could shift from star system to star system much faster, then the effect would be the same as if we had a lot more ships AND it would create a Fog of War that their Majestic machine would have a hard time seeing through.”

  “That’s a big IF, Major. Jump technology hasn’t improved in a couple of centuries. Last I heard, the general consensus among the techies is that it can’t be improved.”

  Foster nodded. “Yes, that is the general consensus, which is why no one is trying to improve it. I agree that it’s a long shot, but if it can be done and done fast enough, it would shift the odds back to 2 to 1.”

  Janicot leaned forward. “That much?”

  “Yes, that much. In terms of our research and development priorities, none of the other projects come anywhere close to having that kind of impact. If our ships can show up where and when the FEDs least expect them, we can offset the advantage that Majestic would otherwise give them.”

  Janicot slapped his hand down on the table. “Then R&D will be our backup plan in case the short term strategy fails. We’ll set up an R&D center here on Sparta.” He was about to say more when he saw Foster shake her head. “Not here?” he asked.

  “Oracle recommends that all R&D be conducted on Zanzibar.”

  “Why in God’s Name on Zanzibar? It’s practically on the edge of human-explored space.”

  “Precisely. Oracle feels that Sparta or any of the other 14 developed planets are too risky in terms of having all our R&D eggs in a basket that might be the target of a FED invasion. All the scientists and technicians and their equipment have to be moved to some place that Majestic is unlikely to identify.”

  “Alright, Zanzibar it is then, but moving thousands of scientists and technicians and their families and equipment from over a dozen planets is going to be a huge undertaking. It’ll take years just to set it up. Since we’re talking about R&D, did Oracle recommend any other new projects?”

  “Yes, Admiral, 21 of them in fact. As you know, our second generation AMM is in production now. Oracle is recommending work on a third generation version, plus work on making enemy missiles less accurate, including electronic counter-measures, decoys and laser poin
t-defense systems among others. On the offensive side, there’s a recommendation for development of both fission and fusion warheads. The rationale there is that if the FEDs are already developing such weapons and they build ships with neutron armor, we’ll be at a severe disadvantage if we can’t damage their ships. Developing our own nuclear warheads will not just level the playing field, it also gives us more options.”

  “I hope you’re not going to suggest using them on civilian targets, Major. That’s a line the Chancellor has said he will not cross.”

  “No, Sir, I wasn’t going to suggest that, but what about using them on deep underground military targets on Hadley such as Majestic’s hiding place?”

  Janicot thought about that before answering. “Do we know where they’re putting that infernal machine?”

  “Not with any certainty, but I saw data on several possible locations, Admiral.”

  “I don’t know, Major. Enough nukes hitting military targets could make Hadley just as deadly to human life as direct hits on civilian targets, what with fallout and climatic effects. If the FEDs decide to go tit for tat, the loss of civilian life on both sides could end up being horrendous. If we win this war, I’d like to be able to claim that we acted honorably.”

  Foster’s voice was subdued when she replied. “You should know, Admiral, that Oracle is predicting a 78% probability that at least one civilian target on each side will be destroyed by nukes if the short term strategy fails.”

  “My God,” said Janicot solemnly.

  “Yes, Sir,” agreed Forster.

  “Is there more?” asked Janicot after a few seconds of reflective silence.

  “We’ve covered the highlights, Sir. The rest is detail.”

  Janicot sighed. “Okay, let’s hear the detail.”

  Chapter Seven:

  Day 090/2544

  Trojan was back at 1st Fleet/Army Force HQ by the time Commodore Stevens’ ship was in orbit around Hadley. With the After Action report on the Battle of Makassar having been transmitted while the flagship was descending into orbit, Trojan knew what had happened. He had reviewed it minute by minute, with Oracle providing analysis as the battle progressed. Trojan knew he wasn’t an expert in space combat tactics, but it didn’t take a genius to figure out that Stevens had screwed up. By the time the Commodore walked into Trojan’s office, the General had decided what to do about it.

  “Have a seat, Commodore,” said Trojan in what he hoped was a neutral voice. Stevens’ expression suggested that he knew he wasn’t going to get a pat on the back.

  “Thank you, General. I take it you want to discuss the battle.”

  Trojan waited until Stevens was seated. “That’s correct. I’ve reviewed your AA report and I’ve watched the data replay. What’s your assessment of your performance, Commodore?”

  Stevens sighed. “Well, in hindsight, it’s clear that I made a mistake waiting to see if the Union ships would surrender. I should have ordered additional Mark 1 missile strikes much sooner, before those ships had a chance to fire on the planet.”

  Trojan was surprised that Stevens was so forthright. It took a lot of balls to admit his screw-up when his career was on the line. Whatever one might say about his tactical judgement, Trojan respected the man for his moral courage. Unfortunately that didn’t negate the fact that he had screwed up. Preliminary estimates of the damage to the industrial infrastructure on Makassar were that the entire military buildup would be delayed by at least eight months.

  “I’m glad you agree with my own assessment. Under the circumstances, I don’t see that I have any alternative but to relieve you of command of the space-based forces in the Franklin Tri-system. If you have a recommendation for your replacement, I’ll consider it. You’ll be returning to Earth on the next available transport.”

  “Now just a minute! Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Chenko gave me this command! I don’t recognize your authority to take it away!”

  Stevens’ reaction surprised Trojan, and he shook his head sadly. His respect for Stevens had just taken a nose dive. “First of all, Admiral Chenko nominated you for that command but I, as Commander-in-Chief, First Fleet/Army Force, had the final say. Secondly, as CINC1FAF I have the authority to give and take away commands for all Army AND Navy personnel assigned to the 1FAF, and that includes you, Commodore. You can protest to the NCoS when you get back, but you WILL be on the next transport, even if I have to order marines to physically carry you on board that ship. Have I made myself clear, Commodore Stevens?”

  When Stevens replied, it was clear that he had calmed down. “You may technically have the authority, General, but this decision isn’t going to go over well back on Earth. I’m not going to beg for my command, but I’ll just point out that I’ve learned a valuable lesson from this battle, and I won’t make that mistake again. Isn’t that worth some consideration?”

  Trojan gave that some thought. Giving people a second chance was a principle that he had applied in his rise up through the ranks, but Oracle had just recalculated the odds of a successful outcome of this war with and without Stevens in a command position, and the odds were greater without him. Oracle hadn’t made a mistake so far, and until it did, Trojan wasn’t going to ignore its recommendations.

  “Some consideration? Yes, but not enough to change my mind. You’re dismissed, Commodore.” Stevens got up and quickly walked out of the office without even bothering to salute. Technically, that by itself was an act of insubordination, but Trojan decided not to make an issue out of it. Stevens’ career would take enough of a hit from Trojan’s decision. Pursuing a charge of insubordination would just be kicking a man when he’s down.

  Day 155/2544

  Chenko ordered his desk computer to turn on the wall screen to the necessary media channel. He recognized the craggy but still handsome face, with the head covered in white hair, as the well-known interviewer and media talking-head that so many of Earth’s citizens listened to on a weekly basis.

  “My guest tonight is retired Commodore Stacker. Commodore, as you know, the Navy has just released details of what is being called the Battle of Makassar. As someone with direct combat experience fighting the Rebels, what’s your assessment of Commodore Stevens’ performance and his removal from command?”

  “Well, first of all, I want to thank you, Larry, for having me on your show. Not only do I have personal combat experience fighting the Rebels but I also have personal experience fighting beside Commodore Stevens. He was Captain of my flagship during the battle over Sparta. We all know that battle didn’t end well, and as the Officer in overall command, it was my duty to take responsibility for the loss. Now you have to understand, Larry, that there are details of that battle that were made public, and there are details that were not made public. I’m not at liberty to reveal the latter, but what I can say is that the outcome would have been very different if I had had a different Flag Captain. The top Navy Brass decided to ignore Captain Stevens’ performance and promoted him to Commodore against my recommendations. Now we see the result of that folly.”

  “I see. Do you think that putting an army general in overall command of First Fleet/Army Force was a wise decision?”

  Stacker smiled and spread out his hands. “Well…what can I say, Larry? An army general is in command and the first naval battle under his command goes badly? That should not surprise anyone. First Fleet/Army should have been given to a naval officer. General Trojan’s appointment is, in my humble opinion, a blunder that could jeopardize the entire war effort.”

  Chenko swore out loud and ordered the display off. Rumor had it that Stacker was trying to get elected to a Federation position. Maybe it was time to leak ALL the details of his actions at Sparta. Let’s see him try to weasel his way out of that!

  Day 159/2544

  Belloc dropped the data tablet onto the oval conference table and looked at Sorensen. “So Sledgehammer actually accomplished its objective, at least in part?”

  “It appears that way, Chancellor, although
the damage assessment is only an estimate. Oracle predicts the FED buildup will be delayed by at least five months, perhaps as much as eight months. That extends our window of opportunity by the same amount, which is a good thing because it’ll give us more time to build up our stockpile of fission warheads. It also gives us more time to set up Site X and maybe even locate a suitable planet to use for shipbuilding.”