The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics

by Andrew Small

  _______ “Zawahiri Eulogizes Abu Yahya al Libi”, Long War Journal, 11 Sep. 2012, http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/09/zawahiri_eulogizes_abu_yahya_a.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  _______ “US Drones Kill 4 Turkistan Islamic Party Fighters in Pakistan Strike”, Long War Journal, 31 Aug. 2013, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/08/us_drones_kill_4_tur.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Ross, Robert S., “The 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Confrontation Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force”, International Security, 25:2, Fall 2000, http://ppe.wiki.hci.edu.sg/file/view/ross3.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Rubin, Barnett R., The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002.

  _______ Afghanistan in the Post-Cold War Era, New York: Oxford University Press, 2013.

  Rubin, Barnett R., and Ahmed Rashid, “From Great Game to Grand Bargain”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64604/barnett-r-rubin-and-ahmed-rashid/from-great-game-to-grand-bargain, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Saalman, Lora, “Divergence Similarity and Symmetry in Sino-Indian Threat Perceptions”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer 2011, Vol. 64, No. 2, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Divergence_Similarity_and_Symmetry_in_Sino-Indian_Threat_Perceptions.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Sanger, David E., The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power, London: Bantam Press, 2009.

  _______ Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power, New York: Crown Publishing, 2012.

  Saran, Shyam, “Is India’s Nuclear Deterrent Credible?” (Speech at the India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, 24 Apr. 2013), http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=pers&nid=4987, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Sarathy Ghosh, Partha, Cooperation and Conflict in South Asia, New Delhi: Manohar Publishers, 1995.

  Sartaz, Aziz, Between Dreams and Realities: Some Milestones in Pakistan’s History, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010.

  Sayigh, Yezid, “Arms Production in Pakistan and Iran: the Limits of Self Reliance”, in Eric Arnett (ed.), Military Capacity and the Risk of War: China, India, Pakistan and Iran, New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.

  Schein, Edgar H., Coercive Persuasion: A Socio Psychological Analysis of the “Brainwashing” of American Civilian Prisoners by the Chinese Communists, New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 1971.

  Schmidle, Nicholas S., To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan, New York: Henry Holt and Company, 2009.

  Schofield, Victoria, Kashmir in Conflict: India, Pakistan and the Unending War, New York: I.B. Tauris, 2010.

  Scott, David, China Stands Up: The PRC and the International System, New York: Routledge, 2007.

  Shahzad, Syed Saleem, Inside Al-Qaeda and the Taliban: Beyond the Bin Laden and 9/11, London: Pluto Press, 2011.

  Shambaugh, David (ed.), Power Shift: China and East Asia’s New Dynamics, Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2005.

  Shichor, Yitzhak, “Great Wall of Steel: Military and Strategy in Xinjiang”, in S. Frederick Starr (ed.), Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Borderland, London: M.E. Sharpe, 2004.

  Shen, Simon (ed.), China and Antiterrorism, New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2007.

  Short, Philip, Mao: A Life, London: John Murray, 1999.

  Siddiqa-Agha, Ayesha, Pakistan’s Arms Procurement and Military Buildup, 1979–99, Lahore: Sang-e-Meel, 2003.

  Simha, Rakesh Krishan, “1971 War: How Russia Sank Nixon’s Gunboat Diplomacy”, Russia and India Report, 20 Dec. 2011, http://indrus.in/arti-cles/2011/12/20/1971_war_how_russia_sank_nixons_gunboat_diplomacy_14041.html, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  Singh, R.S.N., The Military Factor in Pakistan, India: Lancer Publishers, 2008.

  Singh, Swaran, China-Pakistan Strategic Cooperation: India Perspectives, New Delhi: Manohar Publishers, 2007.

  Sirrs, Julie R., The Taliban’s Foreign Fighters: A Report Prepared for the Committee for a Free Afghanistan, Washington, DC: Committee for a Free Afghanistan, 21 January 2001.

  Sisson, Richard and Leo E. Rose, War and Secession: Pakistan, India, and the Creation of Bangladesh, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1990.

  Small, Andrew, “Afghanistan-Pakistan: Bringing China (back) in”, GMF Transatlantic Take, 23 Oct. 2009, http://blog.gmfus.org/2009/10/23/afghan-istan-pakistan-bringing-china-back-in/, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  _______ “China’s Caution on Afghanistan-Pakistan”, Washington Quarterly, Vol. 33, Issue 3, 2010, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0163660X.2010.492343#.UvUMkHddX8k, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  _______ “China’s Afghan Moment”, Foreign Policy, 3 Oct. 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/03/chinas_afghan_moment, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  _______ “Why is China Talking to the Taliban?”, Foreign Policy, 21 Jun. 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/20/why_is_china_talking_to_the_taliban, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  Smith, David O., “The US Experience With Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Lessons For South Asia”, Stimson Centre, 4 Mar. 2013, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/David_Smith_Tactical_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Smith, R. Jeffrey and Joby Warrick, “What Happens in Vienna …”, Arms Control Wonk, 12 Sep. 2008, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2039/what-happened-friday-night, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Sokoloski, Henry D., “Pakistan’s Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War”, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Jan. 2008, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub832.pdf, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  Stares, Paul, “Managing Instability on China’s Periphery”, Council on Foreign Relations, 16 Sep. 2011, http://www.cfr.org/thinktank/cpa/asia_security.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Starr, S. Frederick (ed.), Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Borderland, London: M.E. Sharpe, 2004.

  Suettinger, Robert L., Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations 1989–2000, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003.

  Swaine, Michael D., America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011.

  Swami, Praveen, India, Pakistan and The Secret Jihad: The Covert War in Kashmir, 1947–2004, New York: Routledge, 2007.

  Syed, Anwar Hussain, China & Pakistan: Diplomacy of an Entente Cordiale, London: Oxford University Press, 1974.

  Tellis, Ashley, C. Christine Fair and Jamison Jo Melby, Limited Conflicts under the Nuclear Umbrella: Indian and Pakistani Lessons from the Kargil Crisis, Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001.

  _______ India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005.

  _______ “The Merits of Dehyphenation: Explaining U.S. Success in Engaging India and Pakistan”, Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2008, https://csis.org/files/publication/twq08autumntellis.pdf, last accessed 20 Dec. 2013.

  Thompson, Drew, “Border Burdens: China’s Response to the Myanmar Refugee Crisis”, Centre for the National Interest, 2009, http://cftni.org/Thompson-Border-Burdens-China-Security-2009.pdf, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  Tyler, Patrick, A Great Wall: Six Presidents and China: An Investigative History, New York: A Century Foundation Book, 1999.

  Van Wie Davis, Elizabeth, “Uyghur Muslim Ethnic Separatism in Xinjiang”, China Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Jan. 2008, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA493744, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Vertzberger, Yaacov Y.I., China’s Southwestern Strategy: Encirclement and Counterencirclement, New York: Praeger, 1985.

  Vogel, Ezra F., Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011.

  Wayne, Martin I., China’s War on Terrorism: Counter-insurgency, Politics, and In
ternal Security, New York: Routledge, 2009.

  Wiegand, Krista Eileen, Enduring Territorial Disputes: Strategies of Bargaining, Coercive Diplomacy and Settlement, London: University of Georgia Press, 2011.

  Wilcox, Wayne, India, Pakistan and the Rise of China, New York: Columbia University Press, 1956.

  Wolf Jr, Charles, Xiao Wang and Eric Warner (eds), “China’s Foreign Aid and Government-Sponsored Investment Activities: Scale, Content, Destinations and Implications”, Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR118/RAND_RR118.pdf, last accessed 11 Dec. 2013.

  Wolpert, Stanley, Zulfi Bhutto of Pakistan: His Life and Times, New York: Oxford University Press, 1993.

  Woodward, Bob, Veil: The Secret Wars of the CIA, 1981–1987, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2005.

  _______ Obama’s Wars, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010.

  Wuthnow, Joel, Chinese Diplomacy and the UN Security Council: Beyond the Veto, Oxford and New York: Routledge, 2013.

  Yeager, James R., The Aynak Copper Tender: Implications for Afghanistan and the West, Tucson: Skyline Laboratories and Assayers, 2009.

  Yousaf, Mohammad and Mark Adkin, Afghanistan-The Bear Trap: The Defeat of a Superpower, Barnsley: Leo Cooper/Pen and Sword Books, 2001.

  Yusuf, Shahid, “Can Chinese FDI Accelerate Pakistan’s Growth?”, International Growth Centre, 4 Feb. 2013, http://www.theigc.org/publications/working-paper/can-chinese-fdi-accelerate-pakistan%E2%80%99s-growth, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Zaif, Abd al-Salam, My Life with the Taliban, New York: Columbia University Press, 2010.

  Zenn, Jacob, “Insurgency in Xinjiang Complicates Chinese-Pakistani Relations”, Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 10, Issue 8, 20 Apr. 2012, http://www.freere-public.com/focus/f-news/2875031/posts, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Zetterlund, Kristina (ed.), Pakistan—Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, 2009.

  Zhang, Feng, “China’s New Thinking on Alliances”, Survival, Oct.-Nov. 2012, http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/survival/sections/2012–23ab/survival—global-politics-and-strategy-october-november-2012-fda3/54–5–09-zhang-dd4b, last accessed 20 Nov. 2013.

  Zhao, Suisheng, Chinese Foreign Policy: Pragmatism and Strategic Behaviour, Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe/East Gate Books, 2004.

  Zyck, Steven A., “The Role of China in Afghanistan’s Economic Development & Reconstruction”, Afghanistan In Transition, Mar. 2012, https://www.cimic-web.org/cmo/afg/Documents/Economic/Role_of_China_in_Afghanistan_Economy_Development.pdf, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Official documents

  Aasif Inam, “Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan Telecommunication Sector”, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority Federal Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan, http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/finance/work-cost-tariffs/events/tariff-seminars/Korea-07/presentations/FDI_Aasif_Inam.pdf, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  Banerjee, Purnendu Kumar, “China in India and Pakistan,” speech to the United States Congress, Congressional Record, Washington, DC, 13 June 1966.

  Bhutto, Zulfikar Ali, “If I am Assassinated”, Supreme Court of Pakistan Criminal Appeal No. 11 of 1978, http://www.idsa-india.org/an-nov8–3.html, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.

  Central Intelligence Agency, Memorandum for Frank Carlucci, “Risk Assessment of the Sale of the e69”, Document number CIA-RD84B000 49R001604090013–3, approved for release 14 June 2007, http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/347031/doc-15-a-11–8–82.txt, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  Clinton, Bill and Jiang Zemin (statements issued by), “US-China Joint Statement On South Asia”, Beijing, official White House text, 27 June 1998, http://www.acronym.org.uk/proliferation-challenges/nuclear-weapons-possessors/china/us-china-joint-statement-south-asia-june-1998, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  “Convention between Great Britain, China and Tibet”, Reproduced for the Islamabad Policy Research Institute Fact File, 3 Jul. 1914, http://www.ipripak.org/factfiles/ff43.shtml, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  Defense Intelligence Agency, “Nuclear Weapons Systems in China”, Defense Estimative Brief, 24 April 1984, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/19990527/01–01.htm, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.

  Director of Central Intelligence, “Chinese Policy and Practices Regarding Sensitive Nuclear Transfers”, Special National Intelligence Estimate, 20 Jan. 1983, declassified 30 May 2012, http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/116893, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.

  Donor Financial Review, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Finance, Report 1388, Nov. 2009, p. 38, http://www.undp.org.af/Publications/KeyDocuments/Donor’sFinancialReview%20ReportNov2009.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, “President Jiang Zemin had a telephone conversation with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf ”, 2 Feb. 2001, http://sa.china-embassy.org/eng/zt/fdkbzy/t154518.htm, last accessed 20 Nov. 2013.

  Fifth BRICS Summit 26–27 March, “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Development, Integration and Industrialisation”, eTHekwini Declaration, 27 March 2013 http://www.brics5.co.za/fifth-brics-summit-declaration-and-action-plan/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, “Indo-US Nuclear Deal at the Nuclear Suppliers Group”, seminar report, 17 September 2008, http://www.ipcs.org/seminar/india/indo-us-nuclear-deal-at-the-nuclear-suppliers-group-619.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Li Keqiang, Written Address at New Delhi Airport, 19 May 2013, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/lkqipsg/t1043366.shtml, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, “The First Afghanistan-China-Pakistan Trilateral Dialogue at General-Director Level Held in Beijing”, 28 February 2012. Available at http://mfa.gov.af/en/news/7481.

  Musharraf, Pervez, “Address at the inauguration of Gwadar Deep Seaport”, 20 March 2007. Available at http://presidentmusharraf.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/gwadar-deep-seaport.

  _______ “Address to Nation: Declaration of Emergency”, Our Leader-Musharraf, 3 Nov. 2007, http://presidentmusharraf.wordpress.com/2007/06/02/musharraf-3-nov-emergency/, last accessed 25 Jan. 2014.

  National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, “Al Qaeda Aims at the American Homeland”, http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report/911Report_Ch5.htm, last accessed 9 Dec. 2013.

  National Security Archive, “The United States and Pakistan’s Quest for the Bomb”, The National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 333, 21 December 2010, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb333/,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  _______ “New Documents Spotlight Reagan-era Tensions over Pakistani Nuclear Program”, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 377, Posted 27 April 2012, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb377/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  National Security Council note on the Anderson Papers, requested by Henry Kissinger, 6 Jan. 1972, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB79/BEBB45.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  “New Analysis: Bin Laden: Dissident Turns Pan-Islamist”, The Observer in “Compilation of Usama Bin Laden Statements 1994–January 2004”, FBIS Report, Jan. 2004, http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/ubl-fbis.pdf, last accessed 22 Dec. 2013.

  “Promote Friendship Between Our People and Work Together to Build a Bright Future”, Speech by Xi Jinping, Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan, 7 September 2013, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/dozys_664276/gjlb_664280/3180_664322/3182_664326/t1078088.shtml, last accessed 25 May 2014.

  Rahman, Hamoodur Rahman Commission, Supplementary Report, 23 Oct. 1974, http://www.pppusa.org/Acrobat/Hamoodur%20Rahman%20Commission%20Report.pdf, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  Rohrabacher, Dana (Letter from) to the Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, to Leon E. Panetta, Secretary of Defense, 31 Oct. 2012, http://rohrabacher.house.gov/sites/rohrabacher.house.gov/files/documents/rep._rohrabacher_to_secre
tary_panetta_oct._31.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  Schajee, “Pakistan GDP Growth Rate 1951–2009”, Data Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2b/Pakistan_gdp_growth_rate.svg, last accessed 22 Dec. 2013.

  Sharif, Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif, “Victory Speech, Election 2013”, Lahore, 11 May 2013.

  UN Security Council press release SC/6979, “Security Council imposes wide new measures against Taliban authorities in Afghanistan, demands action on terrorism”, 19 Dec. 2000, http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2000/20001219.sc6979.doc.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  United Nations Treaty Series, vol. 299, United Nations. Available at https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%20299/v299.pdf

  U.S. Department of Defense Cable 06242 to State Department, Meeting between Secretary of Defense Harold Brown and Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping, Secretary of Defense, 8 January 1980, https://www.document-cloud.org/documents/347015-doc-3–1–31–80.html, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.

  U.S. Department of Defense Joint Task Force, “JTF GTMO Detainee Assessment”, Guantanamo Memorandum for Commander of the United States Southern Command, 22 June 2007, http://wikileaks.org/gitmo/pdf/ch/us9ch-000219dp.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  U.S. Department of State Memorandum of Conversation, RG 59, Records of Henry Kissinger, Entry 5403, Box 5, Nodis Memoranda of Conversations, 31 October 1974, http://2001–2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/nixon/e8/97002.htm, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.

  U.S. Department of State Office of the Historian, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980: Volume XIII, China, Document 290, U.S. 7 Jan.1980, http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977–80v13/d290, last accessed 14 Feb. 2014.

  U.S. Embassy Pakistan Cable 15696 to State Department, “Pakistan Nuclear Issue: Meeting with General Zia’” October 17, 1982, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive State Department Mandatory Declassification Review release. Obtained and contributed by William Burr and included in NPIHP Research Update #6, http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/114254, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.