Economic Collapse (Prepping for Tomorrow Book 2)

by Bobby Akart

  In each of the paintings, a valley is viewed from a different vantage point, and as the valley progresses through time from its Savage State, to its Arcadian Phase, through the Consummation of Empire, the empire's Destruction, and then its ultimate Desolation.

  There has never been an artistic work that better symbolizes the rise and fall of empires. As you read the description and analysis of each, ask yourself, At what stage is the United States in The Course of Empire?

  The Savage State

  THE SAVAGE STATE by Thomas Cole

  The Savage State depicts a peaceful valley viewed from the shore with a mountain in the background, surrounded by a tempest at dawn. Early man, dressed in animal skins, stalks his prey and forages through the wilderness. He is a hunter-gatherer, banding together with others like him, for the mutual necessities of protection, sustenance, and perhaps worship.

  Other inhabitants travel up the river in primitive canoes. The primitive vessels represent the beginning of transportation and exploration.

  On the far shore, Cole provides a vision of a clearing with a grouping of teepees surrounding fire. The Savage State is Cole's interpretation of an early society being formed. It is an ideal and healthy world, unchanged by humanity.

  The first painting in the series represents the beginning of an empire—primitive and serene, wild and fresh.

  It's been said that great empires are rarely formed by willful and conscious thought, but more often out of necessity and mutual benefit. Groups are created by like-minded individuals, who then seek out other groups with which to associate, and trade. Mighty empires were formed when a group of people was large enough and powerful enough, to impose its will on others.

  The Arcadian State

  THE ARCADIAN STATE by Thomas Cole

  In the second painting of The Course of Empire series—The Arcadian State, the morning storm clouds have cleared, and the new settlers find themselves in the fresh morning of a day in spring. The point of view has shifted, as the mountain is now on the left-hand side of the painting.

  Much of the wilderness and its hunter-gatherers have advanced, creating lands with furrowed fields and grazed pasture visible. Various activities typical of the pre-modern world are being carried on in the background—plowing, boat-building, herding, and social interaction.

  In the background, a large structure has been constructed signifying the beginning of monumental architecture and the advancement of man's technical knowledge.

  In the foreground, an old man sketches in the dirt with a stick. This activity symbolizes the beginning of advanced scientific and mathematical thought. A young boy draws a primitive stick figure of a woman posing with her staff. These activities herald the start of the society's culture through drawings and paintings.

  But there is also a harbinger of problems to come for this newly formed, agrarian community. A tree stump, apparently cut by man, stands prominently in the painting. Analysts of Cole's work believed he inserted cut tree stumps into his paintings to comment on the negative effects of an over-expanding civilization. In addition, two mounted horseman, together with a soldier in armor, alludes not only to human control over animals but the need for policing and possible military deployment.

  The civilization is growing. It is creating crops and tending to its flock. Each member has a job, a duty that contributes to the new society. An economy is forming as the inhabitants perform a function, get paid in the currency of the day, and use that money to purchase itmes for their basic needs.

  Consummation of Empire

  THE CONSUMMATION OF EMPIRE by Thomas Cole

  The Consummation of Empire, the third painting in Coles' series, depicts this newly formed society in the height of its prominence. A bright summer day fills a city in all of its advanced glory, setting the tone for an empire at its peak.

  Both sides of the river valley are now surrounded in gold-adorned, marble structures, constructed from elaborate columns and ornate architecture. Contrary to the prominent mountain and the natural setting shown in the first two paintings, the painting's entire landscape is subject to man and his expansive domination of nature.

  The large structure in the background, possible a place of worship, now seems to have been transformed into an enormous domed structure overlooking the river-bank. The mouth of the river is guarded, and ships filled with goods go out to sea to meet with their trading partners. The population is joyous as it celebrates the opulence of the time, raising glasses high and cheering one another on the massive balconies and terraces, overlooking elaborate fountains. Consumption is the norm, not the exception.

  The economy is flourishing with an ample combination of production, consumption, and services.

  A giant statue of the goddess Athena presides over the scene, symbolizing past wars and significant victories for this empire. But a society built upon war pays a price within its culture. Two boys are playing in the shallow water with their boats. One of the boys is sinking his friend's toy ship, indicating his comfort with war and dominance.

  Finally, Cole provides a glimpse of a scarlet-robed ruler or victorious military leader as he crosses a bridge spanning the two sides of the river in a celebratory procession. Empires are hungry creatures, always needing to be fed with the spoils of victory. To sustain an ever-expanding economy, one that requires more and more sustenance from outside the boundaries of their existence, the Empire must continue to conquer, or perish under its own weight.

  Destruction of Empire

  THE DESTRUCTION OF EMPIRE by Thomas Cole

  It bears repeating. All empires collapse eventually. There have been no exceptions in the history of mankind. Their reign ends when they are defeated by a larger, more powerful enemy, or when their financing runs out, resulting in collapse.

  The fourth in the series, The Destruction of Empire provides the observer a wider view of the condition of Cole's imaginary empire. The painting, of course, portrays the downfall and destruction of the city, in the midst of a threatening storm which is seen in the distance.

  An army of enemy warriors sailed up the river, has overrun the empire's defenses, and is pillaging the city while killing and raping its inhabitants. A woman, who once celebrated with wine, is now fleeing a soldier and throws herself into the harbor, indicating a society which has devolved into sexual violence.

  The statues of the city's mighty warriors have been beheaded. Lifeless bodies covered with blood are strewn about the promenade.

  The bridge which supported the procession led by their ruler in the previous painting, has been destroyed. A temporary crossing strains under the weight of soldiers and refugees. Columns are broken, the ornate buildings have crumbled, and flames fan out from the palace situated on the river bank. A palace which once presided gloriously over the city, is now on the verge of ruin.

  The front porch of the once magnificent temple has now become the base of an enormous catapult, indicating that the violence of civilization replaced the virtues of religion. The ships which once promoted trade with other civilizations are sinking, or on fire. The once thriving economy has collapsed.

  This fourth painting depicts the results of an empire which has lost its way. Through difficult trials and tribulations, it rose to prominence and greatness. But its continued desire to grow and consume was unsustainable. It lost its moral fabric. It became susceptible to collapse both socially and economically, which made it vulnerable to overthrow by a more powerful conqueror.

  Desolation

  DESOLATION by Thomas Cole

  Sic transit Gloria mundi, a Latin phrase meaning thus passes the glory of the world. The fifth painting, Desolation, shows the results of the collapse of the empire, many years later. Now that the civilization has collapsed, the mountain has returned to its natural state and prominence in the center of the scene.

  The remains are viewed in the closing light of the day, completing the dawn to dusk cycle of Cole's works. Whereas the sunrise is prominent in the first painting, the pale
light of the moon is reflected in the river while a solitary column reflects the final light of day.

  Nature is slowly reclaiming the ruins of the once mighty empire. The landscape has begun to return to wilderness, and no person, living or dead, are to be seen—only the remnants of their architecture emerge from beneath a mantle of trees, ivy, and overgrowth. As in The Savage State, the deer once again roam freely across the landscape.

  The broken statue of their warrior hero stands desolate in the background. The supports of the destroyed bridge, and the columns of the former house of worship are still visible— but only a single column stands in the foreground, its only use as a home for birds.

  The infrastructure has crumbled, the economy has collapsed, and the society has ceased to exist—its human inhabitants vanquished.

  Chapter Two

  What is Economic Collapse?

  To understand economic collapse, you have to understand economics. This book will delve into economics first, to give you the most prevalent warning signs of a looming economic collapse. Simply put, economics is the study of how people choose to marshal resources. Resources include the time and talent people have at their disposal—the land, buildings, equipment, and other assets on hand, and the comprehension of how to incorporate them into useful products and services.

  Economic collapse occurs when the system breaks down entirely. There are stages of economic downturns ranging from recession, to depression, to collapse. The case studies provided will reveal the characteristics of each, so that you can identify the signs and prepare accordingly. But the complete collapse of a national or global economy is characterized by economic depression, social unrest and widespread poverty. During an economic collapse, financial markets will be in total disarray and government attempts to intercede will fail. Other indicia include high bankruptcy rates, unemployment, a breakdown in free markets due to hyperinflation, and a sharp decline in population.

  The Great Depression in the United States, which will be explored in depth, is an example of a national economic collapse. As a result of the 1929 stock market crash, America suffered an economic collapse which lasted many years. The collapse of Weimar Germany in the 1920s and Russia near the turn of the twenty-first century, are further examples.

  As in any catastrophic event, fingers of blame are quickly pointed. Some are of the opinion that a lack of government control and intervention leaves the free market unable to sustain itself. Others believe government over-regulation and manipulation is the problem. Even more believe the economy is capable of correcting itself unless a catastrophic event occurs—a trigger event, which forces an already unsteady economic climate over the edge.

  Chapter Three

  What is Societal Collapse?

  The End is Near, read the sign of a man wearing a loin cloth as he walked down New York's Fifth Avenue one day. In the Bible, Joel warned that the end of the world is nearing and after seeing the last warning message from God, he wrote, "Multitudes, multitudes in the valley of decision, for the day of the Lord is near in the valley of decision."

  Modern sociologists have studied the mindset predicting the end of the world and reached varying conclusions. From the Mayan Apocalypse of 2012, to the movies like The Day After Tomorrow, humans have been predicting the end of days since the beginning of time. The former was a real world example of societal collapse, the latter, pure fiction.

  As laymen, we can identify those events and changes in society which are a harbinger of the end of an empire. Societal Collapse is one such indicator.

  The phrase, going to hell in a handbasket, has been uttered about as many times as the end is near. Originally popularized in the mid-nineteenth century, going to hell in a handbasket, and its variants were often used to describe a state of affairs headed for disaster—at least in the mind of the person using the phrase. In recent pop culture, Kathleen Turner played a character named Helena Handbasket in the hit comedy series Friends.

  For example, many adults lamented the arrival of the Beatles onto the American music scene in the early 1960s. They are widely known as the foremost influential act of the rock and roll era. As their popularity grew, Beatlemania began to signify the ideals embodied in the 1960s counterculture movement which focused on the free expression of human sexuality, experimentation with drugs, and the open defying of authority. To be sure, more than one parent uttered the phrase, the world is going to hell in a handbasket, during that tumultuous decade.

  The popularity of the Beatles and the counterculture of the 1960s did not result in societal collapse, although history may prove that this was the beginning of the decline in American values and morals. True societal collapse is much more dramatic and has been recurrent throughout history. In fact, it has been so worldwide in scope, that it's more the rule than the exception.

  The failures of cultural, social, and economic institutions are the primary features of collapse. Simply put, a society finally loses it, and anarchy reigns supreme.

  PART TWO

  ECONOMIC THEORY: BASIC ECONOMICS IN MODERN TIMES

  "Economics is the study of people in the ordinary business of life."

  ~ Alfred Marshall, Author, 1890

  Chapter Four

  What is Economics, and why should you care?

  Using a working definition of economics as the interaction between people and their resources, economists study the relationship of labor, land, and investments, of money, income, and production, and of taxes and government expenditures. Economists seek to measure well-being, to learn how well-being may increase over time, and to evaluate the relative prosperity of the rich and the poor.

  The behavior of people is important, but the study of economics also considers the collective interaction of businesses, countries, and governments, at all levels. Microeconomics starts by examining how individuals make decisions. Macroeconomics examines aggregate outcomes. The two points of view are essential in understanding most economic phenomena.

  The most prominent book on the study of economics is the Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations written by Adam Smith, published in 1776 in Scotland. The Wealth of Nations, a synopsis of which can be found in Appendix C, is a massive treatise written about what builds a nations' wealth, and how it affects the individual. From an individual standpoint, Smith wrote it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.

  Smith's statement is economics in a nutshell. Each of us has a duty to sustain ourselves, and our families. We do this by contributing to society through work and deeds. In return, we receive sufficient payment to acquire our sustenance. This cycle of work, receipt of payment, and purchase of goods constitutes economics.

  What about currency—money?

  A key element of the study of economics is the theory of currency or money. At first glance, the concept of money is straightforward. You get paid twenty dollars for an hour's work, and then you take that twenty dollars and purchase an article of clothing. The business that sells you the article of clothing takes half, and uses the other half to pay for another article of clothing to sell to a future customer. And so on.

  Without money, you could have approached the business and offered to work for an hour in exchange for the article of clothing, but the business owner may not have needed another employee. Throughout history, a medium of exchange has been established by society which was used to intermediate the exchange of goods and services. A community might be prolific growers of corn. They use their extra harvest to trade for something they can't produce, like sugar. In the free marketplace, values are established based upon supply and demand—a bushel of corn might be worth a pound of sugar, for example.

  As the world's population grew, items of value were agreed upon as a method of payment—gold being the most common. Gold was considered fungible, which meant one ounce of gold was readily interchangeable with another ounce of gold. It was durable, allowing it
to be repeatedly used. Gold was portable, allowing individuals to carry this form of currency easily. This portability allowed for the exchange to others for goods and services. In addition to being divisible and acceptable, it was also limited in supply. A finite supply of a given currency in circulation ensures that values remain relatively constant.

  Understanding these characteristics of currency enables us to discover the truths surrounding the problems of money.

  If money is the center of the economic universe upon which all transactions are conducted, what happens to money if it no longer holds its value? In Zimbabwe, as the value of their currency collapsed during a period of extreme hyperinflation, a loaf of bread cost thirty-five million Zimbabwean dollars. The infamous hyperinflationary period in Zimbabwe from 2006 through 2008 is the perfect illustration of what happens when money no longer holds its value.

  Likewise, similar results can occur when the supply of money is no longer limited. If all nations traded goods and services using gold, which is limited in supply, the price of those goods and services would remain stable. For example, in the United States, the monetary base—defined as the portion of monetary reserves in a commercial bank's vault plus the amount of US dollars in circulation, remained constant at $800 billion for many years. However, in 2009 through 2016, the nation's monetary base rose exponentially to $4,200 billion—a five-time increase. The Federal Reserve called this Quantitative Easing. Others simply referred to it as firing up the printing presses.