Dragonfire

by Humphrey Hawksley

  It would be farcical if the American people were drawn into any kind of war over Kashmir, and we have to bear that in mind. A nuclear weapon might have been used, but the cause of the conflict remains the same.

  Question: Sir, we’re getting reports that Pakistan has launched a missile strike on the city of Srinagar in Kashmir. It was conventional, but the Indians were seconds away from retaliating with a nuclear weapon.

  Hastings: Yes. I saw those reports as I was coming here. Many innocent Indians have been killed and it might help me answer the first question, about which side I support. America and the American people support democracies. I spoke directly to General Hamid Khan about an hour ago. It is not my practice to talk with dictators, but these were exceptional circumstances. If you remember, President Clinton met directly with one of the former military rulers during his visit to South Asia in 2000. General Khan wanted my support in bringing about peace. I told the General that we needed an unequivocal declaration of a ceasefire. Hamid Khan’s statement, which many of you might have heard, fell far short of that mark. Since then, he has launched a missile strike on Kashmir. It seems to me that we have a nightmare scenario of a desperate military dictator in a bunker with his finger on the nuclear button. In India, we have an elected Prime Minister, working with his democratically appointed ministers and institutions.

  Question: Mr President, could you clarify—

  Hastings: Sorry, Clarissa, for interrupting, but I want to add one detail, to give you an example of how this thing has played out over the last few hours. We are working with the Indians through normal channels, their ambassadors here and at the United Nations and their officials in Delhi. The Pakistani officials, on the other hand, say they have received no instructions from Islamabad. That situation speaks for itself, Clarissa.

  Question: Yes. Thank you. Russia seems to be playing it neutral.

  Hastings: Yes. I have spoken to President Gorbunov. We offered to help each other in whatever way would bring about peace quickest.

  Question: But China seems to be taking a different line.

  Hastings: Yes. And we expect it to. China is a long-standing ally of Pakistan’s. It has a problem with India over Tibet. There is also healthy competition for these two great nations in their race for modernization. I know Joan Holden has been speaking to their Foreign Minister, Jamie Song, in Beijing and I don’t see a problem with this. You are all probably more familiar with the way we worked with Russia in Europe and the Middle East. Our alliances might be different, but we are all working towards peace.

  Question: Mr President, can you envisage any circumstances in which the United States will become militarily involved in this conflict?

  Hastings: Only to save lives. And, I’m really sorry, I’ve just had a message that the Indian Prime Minister needs to speak to me urgently. I have to go.

  RAF Upper Heyford, Gloucestershire, UK

  Local time: 0530 Monday 7 May 2007

  The suggestion of using the F-16 multi-role combat aircraft either from Incirlick in Turkey or one of the bases in the Gulf was dismissed in less than fifteen minutes. The host governments all had significant Islamic opinion to take into account. This strike was not worth upsetting it.

  The second option, of using F-18 Hornets on board the 102,000 tonne USS John C. Stennis in the Gulf of Oman, was thrown out equally quickly. The aircraft’s range was 1,600 kilometres and they could have completed their mission by refuelling 500 kilometres from the carrier and again on the way back, using tankers from Kuwait and Turkey. But with both options, American pilots’ lives would be put at unnecessary risk. The aircraft would be over hostile territory, and liaising with Indian pilots who might have to provide cover would be impossible.

  The aircraft chosen for the mission was a single American B-52 bomber flying out of RAF Upper Heyford in England. It carried twenty BGM-109 Conventional Airborne Cruise Missiles (CACMs) with special warheads. For four decades, the B-52 had been the mainstay of the American bomber force and when it was due to be finally scrapped in 2038 it would have been in service for eighty-two years. Technology had advanced tenfold since it flew its first mission. The B-52 was adapted accordingly and it remained the most versatile bomber in the American order of battle.

  Shortly before it took off from the base in Gloucestershire, the crew saw the latest 116 Keyhole spy satellite photographs of the Rawalpindi cantonment area, under which Hamid Khan operated from the Pakistani war room. Throughout the night, other equally sensitive satellites had passed over the area, with optical equipment which cut through the darkness.

  They also had access to special Doppler radar imagery gathered by a stealth AWACs aircraft flying high above Rawalpindi. It was the first time the United States had used the facility in a real conflict situation. Known as Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) it could produce three-dimensional images of objects as far as 45 metres below ground or sea. Trials were as yet incomplete, but the implications were already enormous. Not only would it allow surveillance inside enemy bunkers, such as suspected nuclear facilities in North Korea or biological weapons bunkers in Iraq, it might also make the submarine, particularly those carrying nuclear missiles, a far more vulnerable weapon of war.

  Ideally, the GPR is used on board a helicopter. The stiller it is the clearer the picture. But over enemy territory this is too risky. So the images fed back to Washington of the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi were not as clear as they could be, but the information was enough to characterize the target and therefore determine whether the special warheads to be used would be able to take it out of action. The underground tunnels linking the various Pakistani bunkers showed up clearly and confirmed for the first time the actual command and control centre being used by Hamid Khan.

  The Americans’ main concern was that Khan had taken to a mobile strategic communications system, of which the Pakistani DEFCOM was the most sophisticated, embracing both satellite and microwave links. It remained in the field and, as yet, undetected. Given that Khan was also head of government, he might have opted to use the Joint Operations Command (JOC), the centre for the Joint Services, which was better placed for direct liaison with the civilian government. But it was equally possible that Khan would feel more at home and physically secure on his own turf, which would be the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi – and this was confirmed by the GPR.

  Analysts had picked out images of movement within that bunker and other specific targets believed to be the entrances, the control tower at the airfield, the officers’ mess, the clinic and others. In one picture, three men were photographed going into the clinic, carrying boxes of supplies.

  Indian Mirage-2000Hs, MiG-27MLs and SU30s continued to pound Pakistan air defences, and shortly before the B-52 was ready to launch aircraft descended to destroy key buildings in the complex, using fire and deep-penetration bombs.

  The B-52 flying outside of Pakistan airspace over international waters south of Karachi carried twelve missiles externally and they launched those first. They were followed by four more from the bomb bay and four were held back in reserve. The type of warhead had never been used in modern conflict. John Hastings had told Dixit that the United States would not be involved in any offensive lethal action against Pakistan. But on advice from Alvin Jebb, the American Defence Secretary, he had agreed to use non-lethal weapons to neutralize Hamid Khan’s command and control of nuclear weapons. Jebb was keen to test the weapons in a combat situation which he saw as a perfect, high-profile use of non-lethal weapons.

  As the Tomahawks exactly hit their target, there was no fireball or wrenching explosion. That had been carried out by the Indians. Instead, almost farcically, a thin, fog-like foam was dispersed over specific areas. Immediately, it began hardening and within minutes had become as immovable as concrete, sealing the exits to the bunker like a glue. The Indian bombs had left hundreds of anti-personnel mines on the ground, demanding an exhaustive process before Hamid Khan and his staff could be got out.

  It wa
s impossible to know what contingency plans – if any – Khan had drawn up for this type of attack. But American SIGINT operators confirmed that Pakistan’s command and control structure had gone dead, leaving individual commanders to fend for themselves. There was no communication from Hamid Khan’s bunker, and, only when the conflict had ended did it become clear what had happened to him.

  Eastern Air Command, Shillong, India

  Local time: 1100 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0530 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘Pakistan neutralized,’ read the encrypted message.

  Air Marshal Commodore Ravi Thapar received it in the code which had still not been deciphered by the United States and European experts. It was a simple message, leading to a battle plan he had already drawn up. The Chinese forces which had pushed into Arunachal Pradesh would now be cut off from behind and then destroyed.

  Part of it was revenge for the dreadful defeat China inflicted on India in 1962. Part of it was sensible military strategy. The key targets were the bridges north and south of the Burmese town of Namya Ra, cutting off supplies for the Chinese troops coming in from Lashio and Mytkyina. Airfields at Mogaung and Bhamo were hit, destroying Chinese aircraft on the ground and rendering the runways unusable for several hours.

  Then, after several hours’ lull in the front-line fighting, Indian artillery opened up on the Chinese positions. Chinese aircraft from bases in Tibet were intercepted by India fighters and engaged in dogfights, leaving the ground troops vulnerable. Sensing defeat, the Chinese troops began a tactical withdrawal into Burma, but were cut off by three thousand Indian troops landed by helicopter and parachute behind the Chinese lines. Indian ground-attack aircraft took out Chinese anti-aircraft positions, then moved in with cannon fire, strafing the positions and the light armour the Chinese had brought in with them.

  Once the element of surprise had ended, the Chinese dug themselves in well. But they were running low on ammunition and supplies and it would be only a matter of time before they were defeated. Their attackers fought ferociously, taking huge risks in the mountainous terrain. In the first hours of fighting, they refused to take prisoners, even after the Chinese had shown the white flag.

  Downing Street, London

  Local time: 0600 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘We’re going over to Downing Street now, where Anthony Pincher is on the line. This is the Prime Minister’s first interview since news of the Pakistani nuclear attack broke just under six hours ago. Thank you for joining us, Prime Minister. I know you’ve been up all night. We have heard about the terrible Pakistani missile strike on Kashmir. Can you tell us the latest news about that?’

  ‘Thank you, Michael,’ said Pincher to the early morning presenter on BBC 5 Live radio. ‘That was a tragedy, but thankfully things have moved on, to try to stop more bloodshed. As I speak an operation is underway to prevent any further use by Pakistan of nuclear weapons and, hopefully, force a ceasefire. I can’t say too much about it, but I am convinced that this measure will go a long way to de-escalating the crisis.’

  ‘Are any British troops involved?’

  ‘No. Not in this operation.’

  ‘You’re implying, Prime Minister, that British troops are involved in another operation.’

  ‘I’m not implying anything, except to say that the task force headed by HMS Ocean currently in the Bay of Bengal has been put on standby should it be needed.’

  ‘But we are clearly supporting India, then?’

  ‘As callers to your overnight programme have been pointing out, India is a democracy. We hope it doesn’t come to supporting one side or another, but Great Britain supports democratic rule against any other.’

  Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore

  Local time: 1430 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0600 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘John, I would like you to regard this as a personal call,’ said Anthony Pincher.

  ‘Understood,’ said Singapore’s Prime Minister, John Chiu. ‘I have just been listening to you on the radio. It appears you have taken sides already.’

  ‘That’s what I wanted to discuss, particularly Burma.’

  ‘Yes. I couldn’t imagine that a tiny city state like Singapore would be consulted on the greater geopolitical issues. What about Myanmar?’ said Chiu, correcting Pincher on the official name of the country.

  ‘There is a feeling among members of the Five Power Defence Agreement that China’s use of Burma – or Myanmar – as a military staging post for invasion threatens the stability of South-East Asia.’

  ‘Which members? Britain? Australia and New Zealand?’

  ‘So far.’

  ‘You want to know my view?’

  ‘Yes.’

  ‘It’s bigger than Myanmar, Anthony, and you know it. That is what makes it so bloody complicated. I believe that ultimately China is trying to find a way of controlling the Straits of Malacca. The Dragon Strike campaign was merely a test of that. The Straits are one of the world’s most strategic choke points. Through them travels all the Middle East oil supplies for Japan and China, which in ten or twenty years’ time will become more and more reliant on oil imports. They have, therefore, a practical and geopolitical motivation for eyeing the Straits, and that combination has been the start of many wars. Should they ever succeed, they would also have access to the oil fields at the mouth of the Straits, and they would have to neutralize Singapore as we are by far the biggest port in the area.’

  ‘How far away are they from achieving their goal?’

  ‘The whole equation has changed in the past twenty-four hours, so it’s impossible to say. The Malacca project has been underway now for fifteen years. In 1992, the Central Military Commission laid out the principle of creating a blue-water fleet, with an aircraft carrier and submarines. Internal documents committed China to building “the world’s most powerful navy”. A year later another document was issued outlining a doctrine known as “high-sea defence”. It states that China could no longer accept the Indian Ocean as only an ocean of the Indians. I think the precise words were that the Indian Ocean was not India’s ocean. In 1996, the plan was given a boost, or jolt of reality if you like, when the Americans sent a carrier group to the Straits of Taiwan and the Chinese realized they had nothing at all which could touch it. That alone eradicated any argument within the Communist Party about not pushing ahead with naval modernization.

  ‘Now, you asked about Myanmar. China needs access at both sides of the Straits. To the east it can achieve it by setting up base on one of the Spratly Islands. To the west, it plans to use the two Cocos Islands and the sprawling Hanggyi Island naval base which are at either end of the Prepari Channel. Hanggyi Island is on the Irrawaddy delta coastline. Great and Little Cocos Islands are 240 kilometres to the south, and barely 15 kilometres from India’s North Andaman Island. If you look at the map these are key strategic positions for monitoring shipping in and out of the Malacca Straits. Since 1994, Myanmar has officially leased the Cocos Islands to China. On Great Cocos it has built a maritime reconnaissance and electronic intelligence installation station. One of its main jobs is to monitor the Indian missile test site at Balasore on the Orissa coast. The Great Cocos Station has a 50-metre antenna tower, radar sites and other facilities for signals and electronic intelligence gathering with about a hundred Chinese staff working there. They’ve also dredged the harbour – it used to be a bleak fishing village – so that it can now take the 4,200 tonne Ludu-class destroyer and anything smaller.

  ‘The Hanggyi Island base is far more sophisticated and has been built to take an aircraft carrier when China gets one, and strategic ICBM submarines. But it doesn’t stop there. China has modernized ports in Sittwe in Western Arakan state and Zedetkyi Kyun or St Matthew’s Island in the south-east, which directly threatens the northern entrance of the Malacca Straits. Basically, the Chinese military run the whole of that western coastline. It has equipped Myanmar with two Jianghu-class frigates with surface-to-surface missiles, Hainan-cl
ass fast-attack craft, other warships, crew to operate them and squadrons of fighter aircraft, the J-7 and A-5M ground-attack aircraft. It has rebuilt the Meitktila airbase, near Mandalay, and the smaller airfield at Lashio in the north-east. Both of those have been used in the operation against India. It has upgraded the road and rail system from its southern city of Kunming in Yunnan to a number of Myanmar ports – Akyab, Kyaukpyu and Mergui and others. The whole programme is run from the Chengdu Military Division, the same one which handles Tibet.

  ‘Myanmar, or Burma as you call it, is nothing less than a military colony of China. So you ask me if Singapore is worried. What do you think, John? I’m as worried as hell.’

  ‘I have an idea which might help,’ said Pincher softly, sensing the frustration in John Chiu’s voice.

  ‘I’m not sure I want to hear it.’

  ‘And it doesn’t go further than the two of us?’

  ‘Agreed.’

  ‘Under the authority of the Five Power Defence Agreement, would your amphibious rapid deployment group want to take part in an operation to neutralize Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean?’

  ‘You’re serious?’

  ‘Yes.’

  ‘The agreement doesn’t cover it.’

  ‘It does if the stability of Singapore and Malaysia is threatened. From what you’ve just told me, it appears that stability is very much under threat.’

  John Chiu was silent for at least a minute. ‘If we have to choose a dominant regional power other than the United States, we would go for China over Japan, you know. We could never accept Japanese dominance after what they did during the Second World War.’

  ‘I’m not sure the choices are so stark.’

  ‘My answer, Anthony, is no. Singapore is a predominantly Chinese state. We will remain neutral in the international row. But you have my personal support and I suggest you try up the road in Malaysia. Their cultural Chinese links are far more tenuous than ours.’