Dragonfire

by Humphrey Hawksley

  CNN: We apologize. We should have brought you out of that footage earlier, but these were raw pictures, just fed in over the Reuters satellite from Beijing. I think we get your point, Foreign Minister.

  Song: I would like to make an appeal to your audience. Do not force China into war over Tibet. What we have just seen shows that there are no good or bad guys in a struggle like this. It is a horrible thing and both sides are capable of terrible atrocities. Yes, both the Chinese and the Tibetans. We cannot simply give Tibet away now. Thousands of Chinese who have settled there could be slaughtered. I won’t debate the rights and wrongs of that policy, because we all need to look forward. If you let us sort out the present crisis it will end soon. If you in the West interfere, there is bound to be a bloodbath even worse than the one you have just seen.

  Hastings muted the television by remote. ‘That is about the most disgusting thing I have ever seen in my life,’ he said.

  ‘Fortunately, we don’t have treaty obligations in Tibet,’ said Holden. ‘But we do with Taiwan.’

  Ennio Barber, the President’s personal adviser, had until now stayed quiet. ‘We have to get a statement out quickly,’ he said. ‘Or we’ll be finding ourselves pushed towards war by Congress.’

  ‘The Taiwan Relations Act is woolly about our obligation to use force to defend Taiwan,’ said Holden.

  ‘But the American people will expect it,’ said Barber.

  ‘Alvin, when can we get a carrier group into the area?’ Hastings asked his Defence Secretary.

  ‘The Harry S. Truman carrier group is just south of the Korean Straits heading out of the Sea of Japan. It’ll take at least a day to get anywhere near Taiwan.’

  ‘OK. Joan, I need to speak to Reece Overhalt in Beijing and get me Lin in Taiwan. Let’s see if this is one Asian crisis we can defuse in a few phone calls.’

  China World Hotel, Beijing, China

  Local time: 0730 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  GMT: 2330 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘The passing of the legislation we can ignore,’ said Jamie Song. ‘But if the celebrations go ahead, we will have to move in.’

  ‘What do you mean, “move in”?’ asked Reece Overhalt. The two men were standing on the balcony again, a sign from the Foreign Minister that the conversation was not being recorded.

  ‘Reece, that is out of my hands. The military run our military strategy on Taiwan. When they take it over, I will be watching it on BBC and CNN just like you.’

  ‘Give me your best- and worst-case scenarios, then.’

  ‘Best case, we will have tests with DF-15 or some such short- or medium-range missile like we did during the presidential elections in 1996. Medium case is that we’ll do that and blockade the Straits of Taiwan, throwing a cordon around the island, but not firing a shot unless attacked. Worst case is that we’ll send a missile into the Parliament building as they’re passing the independence legislation. Now tell me, what will John Hastings do?’

  ‘They’re sending the Harry S. Truman down from the Sea of Japan. We’ve got fighter crews on high alert in Okinawa. And that’s about it. If you can hold off, we can hold off. We can handle the missile tests. The blockade would give us all room for negotiation and if no one wants war, it won’t happen. If you send in a missile, I guess we’ll have to knock out your missile bases. But like you, Jamie, that’s not a threat. It’s a guess from a non-executive ambassador.’

  Jamie Song shook his head. ‘I’ll pass that on to my president, Reece. But I’m not sure even he will be in control of the Taiwan conflict. The military will not let Taiwan go.’

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  Local time: 0800 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  GMT: 0000 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  General Leung Liyin, the Chinese Defence Minister, was unable to control his anger when talking to President Tao. ‘We have made it absolutely clear that if Taiwan declares independence we will attack. If we allow the declaration to go ahead, we will be weakened for generations. The Nationalists will have won the war in which our fathers fought. The Americans will increase its power in East Asia. Internal dissent will increase and the Communist Party will be lucky to stay in power. Total chaos will follow.’

  ‘It could mean war against America,’ said Tao softly.

  Leung banged the table. ‘They won’t touch us. They know we could take out one of their cities with the DF-41. Their theatre missile-defence system cannot guarantee a missile will not get through. We are prepared to lose cities and the Americans are not. That is why we will win.’

  Prime Minister’s Residence, Tokyo, Japan

  Local time: 0930 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  GMT: 0030 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  Prime Minister Shigeto Wada put the telephone down from a conversation with John Hastings and thought hard, not about what the American President had said, but how he had said it. Wada’s grandfather had been an administrative official in Taiwan and Wada himself had always looked on Taiwan’s development with pride as if some of its success at least was down to the infrastructure and manner in which Japan had ruled the islands. Chinese military action against Taiwan now would not directly affect the treaty obligations the United States had with Japan. But given China’s Dragon Strike campaign of a few years back and its expansion into the Indian Ocean, it was only inevitable that the two East Asian powers would come into conflict again, possibly sooner rather than later.

  His intelligence chief General Shigehiko Ogawa had already predicted a horrific Chinese onslaught on Taiwan within a few hours, certainly before the celebrations were due to start at noon. John Hastings had spoken like a man who wished the problem would go away.

  ‘We are talking to the Chinese and the Taiwanese about this,’ Hastings had said. ‘You can be assured we do everything to maintain peace in the Taiwan Straits.’

  Wada was not convinced. He felt a tiredness in America, a sense that its days of fighting wars in Asia were over. It had given Japan and its neighbours a generous security umbrella for sixty years, and had allowed Japan two generations to grow out of the shame it felt after its defeat in the Second World War. But time had to move on. Wada also faced a more practical difficulty. As soon as China attacked, he expected the United States to use its base at Okinawa as a launching point for military action against the mainland. That would put Japanese sovereign territory under a direct threat of Chinese attack.

  The debate about Japan’s defence role was not new, but Taiwan’s declaration of independence had focused his thoughts. In the past five years, Japan had brought in Boeing 767 mid-air refuelling tankers for its F-14 fighters and launched the Osumi carrier, which could be used with either helicopters or jump-jets. It had put up four spy satellites, which gave it the best imagery in the region, and had brought in long-range air transport planes to deliver troops or rescue Japanese citizens from anywhere in the world.

  Wada glanced at his desk-top screen to see the first official Chinese reaction to the Taiwanese announcement. It had come out quickly, but the words were familiar, showing a lack of imagination within the Chinese leadership.

  ‘The Chinese government and people will not tolerate any action for Taiwan independence or any attempt to separate Taiwan from the motherland,’ said the Xinhua statement. ‘China’s territory and sovereignty are indivisible. The Taiwan question is purely an internal matter for China. If there occurs any action for Taiwanese independence or any attempt by foreign forces to separate Taiwan from the motherland, the Chinese government and people will not sit back and do nothing.’

  The fact that China had chosen to release the statement now was an almost certain indication that it would take military action. To do anything less would be an unacceptable loss of face to President Tao and the military.

  Under the constitution, the Japanese navy could patrol 2,400 kilometres out to sea. One of its tasks was to keep shipping lanes open with Japanese minesweepers. It was also allowed to give logistical and medical support to American forces in combat in the
region. Japanese forces were, of course, allowed to defend themselves if they came under attack. None of this conflicted with the constitutional declaration that Japan would ‘for ever renounce war as a sovereign right’.

  ‘John Chiu, the Prime Minister of Singapore, is on the telephone,’ said Wada’s long-serving personal assistant, whose desk was in the far corner of his large office.

  ‘John, I can imagine the purpose of this call,’ said Wada in English.

  ‘Taiwan,’ said Chiu. ‘Our analysts believe China will attack within two hours.’

  ‘I have the same reading.’

  ‘I have just come out of an emergency Cabinet meeting and some members are listening in to this telephone call. Our conclusion was this. For many years our founding Prime Minister was of the view that Japan could never take the mantle of the main regional power in East Asia. However, China’s policies in the recent years have made us uneasy about this view. The events of the past few days have led us to conclude that Singapore would support a strategic pact between India and Japan in Asia. Also we would remain politically neutral should you decide to defend the stability of East Asia in whatever manner you thought right during this current Taiwan crisis. Some time within the next half-century, we will see the American security umbrella close. We believe that now is the time to establish an Asian security umbrella, and we want to see it done not with one power, China, but with two – Japan and India. As you know, Singapore is predominantly Chinese and there will be domestic difficulties with our new thinking. This is why we will be muted in our public support, until we can sustain it. I’m sure you understand.’

  Minutes after Wada had finished his call from John Chiu, Hari Dixit was on the line from Delhi. ‘Prime Minister, this is a humbling call for me, but a frank one. It is also too late in the day, but in present circumstances that is beside the point. You have often approached us informally for closer ties and we have responded with insular arrogance. India has been an inward-looking nation, living on a false premise that it was a great country simply waiting for its time to come. We have had a jolt of reality in the past week and that is why I am calling you.’

  ‘A call from the Prime Minister of India is always welcome,’ said Wada.

  ‘I believe the international community would support an alliance between our two democracies. I believe that right now it would support action against China. We will hit them on our eastern flank and win back Burma for the free world. We will support vigorously any action you take to contain China in its efforts to keep Taiwan.’

  Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China

  Local time: 0900 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  GMT: 0100 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  General Leung Liyin, the Chinese Defence Minister, was speaking in front of a wall map of the Taiwan Straits. President Tao was in the room, together with Tang Siju, and senior military officials. Jamie Song had not been asked to the briefing.

  ‘80302 Unit of the Second Artillery will launch the DF-15 missile strike from the Huangshan 52 Base here in Jiangxi province. The launch control and command HQ will be with the 815th Brigade at Leping. We have an inventory of 150 missiles for the operation which are now being moved to pre-surveyed launch sites in Jiangxi and Fujian provinces. Unit 80301 in Shenyang in Liaioning province, just here, is on a high alert should we have to strike Okinawa. We hope this will not be necessary. We would use the DF-21 missile and the launch site would be here in Tonghua, just north of the Korean border.’

  ‘Do you believe, comrade General, that we can defeat Taiwan, or merely use a missile strike as a means to get Lin to withdraw his declaration of independence?’

  ‘If we decided to settle the issue once and for all, we would have to take action against the enemy’s early warning radar sites, the SIGINT facilities, the command and control centres and power plants. If we did it swiftly in a single mortal blow [zhiming daji] we would need airstrikes and Special Forces operations. The first targets would be Taiwan’s twenty-five early warning radar stations, which we would hit with anti-radiation missiles launched from aircraft. We would send Special Forces into some sites, such as the Chuan Kang Airbase. We have built a replica of the base in Gansu and have trained extensively to prepare for such an assault. We would also have to shoot down Taiwan’s airborne early warning systems, which have taken off in the past hour. The enemy has eight key military airfields which we would have to take out; runways, barracks and control towers. Even if we succeed in shutting down the early warning apparatus, the command and control structure, the key missile sites and the airfields, we would only briefly have control of Taiwanese airspace. This first wave of operation would be fifteen minutes at best, but with both missile strikes and disruption of communication, we could complicate the enemy’s response. We would follow it with a much bigger second wave, with precision-guided bombs which we hope would neutralize both the air-defence system and the command structure. This could be achieved within forty-five minutes. With control of the skies, we could impose a no-fly zone around Taiwan – including American aircraft – and then impose a sea blockade around the island. I would not suggest a land invasion, because it would be drawn out and costly.’

  ‘Are you recommending it, comrade General?’ said Tao.

  General Leung was silent for what seemed to be an interminable amount of time. Then he said: ‘No. It is the only way it can be done, but it is over-optimistic. We have two elements to consider. The first is that five years from now Taiwan will have a fully tested theatre missile-defence system. We are developing sophisticated jamming and chaff devices to confuse the enemy, but it would be far more difficult to conduct the plan I have just outlined. In normal circumstances, I would recommend implementing it now. But I am not convinced we have the resources to fight both in Taiwan and on our western flank with India in Arunachal Pradesh.’

  ‘Then what is your suggestion?’

  Again Leung lapsed into silence. ‘Population centres,’ he finally said. ‘That would force America’s hand and bring Taiwan to its knees.’

  The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC

  Local time: 2000 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0100 Tuesday 8 May 2007

  ‘The Taiwanese and Japanese are giving us full access to their intelligence. Coupled with our own it provides a graphic picture. We have imagery of rail missile movements in Fujian province,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘Fighter aircraft are being flown into bases along the eastern coastline – Shantou, Xiamen, Quanzhou and Fuzhou. There is evidence of ground troops massing for a seaborne landing on the island chain of Pei-kan, Nan-kan and Pai-chuan, which are controlled by Taiwan.’

  ‘The Japanese Defence Minister has telephoned saying they are deploying their forces towards the Taiwan Straits, including the helicopter carrier Osumi.’

  ‘Surely they’re not going to get involved?’

  ‘He gave me the impression that they didn’t mind if they did, providing we were on side,’ said Jebb. ‘Their intelligence analysts anticipate a Chinese missile strike within the hour.’

  ‘What targets?’ said Bloodworth.

  ‘That’s uncertain.’

  ‘Lin is refusing to call off the celebrations,’ said Holden. ‘I talked to him directly.’

  ‘John Chiu in Singapore corroborates with the Japanese,’ said Hastings. ‘He is convinced China will take military action.’

  ‘Sir, we have to announce what we are going to do,’ said Ennio Barber. ‘The sending of a carrier group just isn’t washing on Capitol Hill. They know it won’t be there in time.’

  ‘Sorry to interrupt, John,’ said Bloodworth. ‘We are getting reports in about an Indian missile strike on Burma.’

  ‘The Chinese military there?’

  ‘It seems to be wider spread, including airstrikes.’ Bloodworth continued reading from the computer screen. ‘Sorry. The report is that the Agni medium-range ballistic missile is being prepared for launch at a site just north of Calcutta. No indication of its target. The range
is 1,600 miles, so it could hit Tibet or Burma. A lighter warhead could take it deep inside China itself, 2,000 to 2,500 miles range.’

  ‘Get Hari Dixit on the line,’ snapped Hastings.

  ‘We’ve also got pictures of a Prithvi missile on a semi-erect mobile launch pad north of Dimapur on India’s eastern tip. There’s bad cloud cover there, so there could be a lot more of them, say around Tezpur or Imphal. Our ELINT and SIGINT people are picking up a big increase in military air traffic in eastern India. Just about every known airfield under the north-east military command is on a high alert. A massive influx of fighter and ground-attack aircraft are coming in from the west.’

  ‘The Indian Prime Minister on the line, Mr President.’

  John Hastings took the call on a mobile receiver, standing up, and put the conversation on open speaker. ‘Hari, what are you up to in the east?’

  ‘We’re going to take back our territory and neutralize the threat posed by Myanmar’s alliance with China.’

  ‘I’m asking you to hold off. Wait until this Taiwan crisis has died down.’

  ‘If we don’t act during it, we will be defeated.’

  ‘All right, Hari. I don’t know if you’ve heard this from your own people, but we believe there’s a Chinese nuclear-armed Xia submarine in the Indian Ocean. It can reach anywhere in India. We’ve got the Ronald Reagan carrier group looking for it. Four attack submarines are after it, but it is nowhere near the Kilo sub which sank the Bombay. No one wants China to launch from that sub. The country’s vulnerable, confused and nervous right now. Do nothing, Hari. Be like Israel in the Gulf War. Take the punches, but don’t hit back. Help me wind down the crisis and you have my word we’ll work out a comprehensive Asian defence policy which will safeguard all our interests.’