Saving Us

by Katharine Hayhoe

  as many as a billion Institute for Economics & Peace, Ecological Threat Register, 2020, https://ecologicalthreatregister.org/.

  white evangelicals are less worried Frank Kummer, “Religious people believe climate change is a real threat, not a controversy, Yale poll finds,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, October 23, 2020, https://www.inquirer.com/science/climate/climate-change-religion-amy-coney-20201023.html.

  it’s the political polarization John H. Evans and Justin Feng, “Conservative Protestantism and skepticism of scientists studying climate change,” Climatic Change 121 (2013): 595–608, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0946-6.

  study after study has shown Emily Kubin, Curtis Puryear, Chelsea Schein, and Kurt Gray, “Personal experiences bridge moral and political divides better than facts,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States 118, no. 6 (2021): e2008389118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008389118.

  CHAPTER 3

  calls it a threat multiplier Department of Defense, 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, https://www.acq.osd.mil/eie/Downloads/CCARprint_wForward_e.pdf.

  The Audubon Society has put together The National Audubon Society, “Survival by Degrees: 389 Bird Species on the Brink,” 2020, https://www.audubon.org/climate/survivalbydegrees.

  In Oregon and Idaho, it’s estimated Pete Bisson, “Salmon and Trout in the Pacific Northwest and Climate Change,” June 2008, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center, www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/aquatic-ecosystems/salmon-trout.shtml.

  Ducks Unlimited says that conservation Ducks Unlimited, “Climate Change and Waterfowl, 2020,” https://www.ducks.org/Conservation/Public-Policy/Climate-Change-and-Waterfowl.

  a study I led for the U.S. Northeast Peter Frumhoff, James McCarthy, Jerry Melillo, Suzanne Moser, and Donald Wuebbles, Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions: Synthesis Report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) (Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2007).

  affecting the viability of many other outdoor sports Priestley International Centre for Climate, “Game Changer: How Climate Change Is Impacting Sports in the U.K.,” 2018, https://climate.leeds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Game-Changer-1.pdf.

  the Texas Rangers baseball team Justin Fox, “It’s Gotten Too Hot for Outdoor Baseball in Texas,” Bloomberg Opinion, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-01/climate-change-ruined-globe-life-stadium-for-the-texas-rangers.

  Outdoor ice rinks Nikolay Damyanov, Damon Matthews, and Lawrence Mysak, “Observed Decreases in the Canadian Outdoor Skating Season Due to Recent Winter Warming,” Environmental Research Letters 7, no. 1 (2012): 014028, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014028.

  Summer Olympic hosts like Tokyo Katherine Kornei, “Japan: Next Olympics Marathon Course Has Dangerous ‘Hot Spots’ for Spectators,” Prevention Web: The Knowledge Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019, https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63205.

  Outdoor tennis competitions Graham Readfern, “Is the Australian Open Tennis Feeling the Heat of Climate Change?,” Guardian, January 16, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/jan/16/australia-tennis-open-climate-change-extreme-heat.

  Half the world’s sandy beaches Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, and Luc Feyen, “Sandy Coastlines Under Threat of Erosion,” Nature Climate Change 10 (2020): 260–263, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0.

  plant hardiness zones shifting Arbor Day Foundation, “Zone Changes: 1990 USDA Hardiness Zones,” 2020, https://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm.

  over a trillion dollars since 1970 Christophe Diagne, Boris Leroy, Anne-Charlotte Vaissière, Rodolphe Gozlan, David Roiz, Ivan Jaricć, Jean-Michel Salles, Corey Bradshaw, and Franck Courchamp, “High and rising economic costs of biological invasions worldwide,” Nature 592 (2021): 571–576, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03405-6.

  created brochures and a website Bethany Bradley, Amanda Bayer, Bridget Griffin, Sydni Joubran, Brittany Laginhas, et al., “Gardening with Climate-Smart Native Plants in the Northeast, 2020” https://scholarworks.umass.edu/eco_ed_materials/8/ and https://www.risccnetwork.org/.

  reached southern Ontario Ontario Invasive Plant Council, Kudzu, https://www.ontarioinvasiveplants.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Kudzu-ENGLISH.pdf.

  Greens like lettuce Maryn McKenna, “Can Lettuce Survive Climate Change?” Wired, February 7, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/can-lettuce-survive-climate-change/.

  water supplies needed Varun Varma and Daniel Bebber, “Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world,” Nature Climate Change (2019) doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0559-9.

  Garden Club of America Garden Club of America, “Position Paper: Climate Change,” 2016, https://www.gcamerica.org/public/assets/pdf/GCAPositionPapersCompilation2016.pdf.

  destroy between 20 to 40 percent Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Plants vital to human diets but face growing risks from pests and diseases,” April 4, 2016, http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/409158/icode/.

  wine-growing areas of France Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet, “The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality,” Journal of Wine Economics 11, no. 1: 150–167.

  decreased the yield of hops Martin Mozny, Radim Tolasz, Jiri Nekovar, Tim Sparks, Mirek Trnka, and Zdenek Zalud, “The Impact of Climate Change on the Yield and Quality of Saaz Hops in the Czech Republic,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149, no. 6–7 (2009): 913–919, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.02.006.

  Brewery Climate Declaration Caitlyn Kennedy, “Climate and Beer,” NOAA Climate.gov, 2016, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-beer.

  cassava root as a replacement for barley Andrea Shea, “Survival of the Greenest Beer? Breweries Adapt to a Changing Climate,” NPR: The Salt, 2015, https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2015/06/24/415538451/survival-of-the-greenest-beer-breweries-adapt-to-a-changing-climate.

  Shifts in rainfall patterns Michon Scott, “Climate and Chocolate,” NOAA Climate.gov, 2016, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-chocolate.

  squeezing the water out of the soil The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), “CIAT Warns of Climate Change Impact on Cocoa Production,” IISD/SDG Knowledge Hub, 2011, https://sdg.iisd.org/news/ciat-warns-of-climate-change-impact-on-cocoa-production/.

  Coffee giants from Nespresso to Lavazza Lavazza Foundation, “Coffee and Climate: Changing the Future One Cup at a Time,” Guardian Labs, https://www.theguardian.com/lavazza-ethical-espresso/2019/feb/26/coffee-and-climate-changing-the-future-one-cup-at-a-time.

  programs to build resilience Karen Carmichael, “Easing the Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Growers,” National Geographic, 2020, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/partner-content-impact-climate-change-on-coffee-growers/.

  Warming stripes are #showyourstripes, https://showyourstripes.info/.

  SECTION 2: WHY FACTS MATTER—AND WHY THEY’RE NOT ENOUGH

  CHAPTER 4

  analysis of people across fifty-six countries Matthew Hornsey, Emily Harris, Paul Bain, and Kelly Fielding, “Meta-Analyses of the Determinants and Outcomes of Belief in Climate Change,” Nature Climate Change 6, no. 6 (2016): 622–626, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2943.

  Colbert tweeted sarcastically Stephen Colbert, Twitter post, November 18, 2014, 11:40 p.m., https://twitter.com/StephenAtHome/status/534929076726009856.

  mathematician and scientist Joseph Fourier Joseph Fourier, “Remarques generales sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires” (1824), Annales de chimie et de physique (Annals of Chemistry and of Physics) 23, no. 2 (1999).

  a paper presented on her behalf Eunice Newton Foote, “Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun’s Rays,” Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, August 2
3, 1856.

  needed to measure precisely John Tyndall, “On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours…” Philosophical Magazine 4, 22 (1861): 169–194.

  Guy Callendar could actually measure G. S. Callendar, “The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64, no. 275 (1938): 223–240.

  “Within a few short centuries” Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment, Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council (Washington D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1979).

  “prevent dangerous anthropogenic” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992, https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf.

  known as the Paris Agreement United Nations Paris Agreement, 2015, https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf.

  “We, as leaders of major scientific organizations” Scientific Societies’ Letter to Congress, June 28, 2016, https://www.eurekalert.org/images/2016climateletter6-28-16.pdf.

  one hundred and ninety-eight scientific organizations https://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html.

  In the Northern Hemisphere Drew Shindell, Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann, David Rind, and Anne Waple, “Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change during the Maunder Minimum,” Science 294, no. 5549 (2001): 2149–2152, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064363.

  satellite radiometer data show Chi Ju Wu, Natalie Krivova, Sami Solanki, and Ilya Usoskin, “Solar Total and Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction Over the Last 9,000 Years,” Astronomy & Astrophysics 620 (2018): A120, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201832956.

  over 60 megatons Achmad Djumarma Wirakusumah and Heryadi Rachmat, “Impact of the 1815 Tambora Eruption to Global Climate Change,” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 71 (2016): 012007.

  outbreaks of typhus Clive Oppenheimer, “Climatic, Environmental and Human Consequences of the Largest Known Historic Eruption: Tambora Volcano (Indonesia) 1815,” Progress in Physical Geography 27, no. 2 (2003): 230–259, https://doi.org/10.1191%2F0309133303pp379ra.

  ultimately responsible for Matthew Genge, “Electrostatic Levitation of Volcanic Ash into the Ionosphere and Its Abrupt Effect on Climate,” Geology 46, no. 10 (2018): 835–838, https://doi.org/10.1130/G45092.1.

  natural geologic emissions Terry Gerlach, “Volcanic Versus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide,” EOS Science News 92, no. 24 (2011): 201–202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO240001.

  Milutin Milanković figured out Milutin Milanković, Canon of Insolation and the Ice-age Problem (Kanon Der Erdbestrahlung und Seine Anwendung Auf Das Eiszeitenproblem), 4th ed. (Agency for Textbooks, 1941).

  in about fifteen hundred years Chronis Tzedakis, James Channell, David Hodell, Helga Kleiven, and Luke Skinner, “Determining the Natural Length of the Current Interglacial,” Nature Geoscience 5 (2012): 138–141, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1358.

  It also typically brings Rebecca Lindsey, “Global impacts of El Niño and La Niña,” NOAA Climate.gov, February 9, 2016, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/global-impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a.

  so-called Medieval Warm Period Eystein Jansen, Jonathan Overpeck, Keith Briffa, Jean-Claude Duplessy, Fortunat Joos, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Daniel Olago, et al., “Palaeoclimate,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds. Susan Solomon, Dahe Qin, Martin Manning, Zhenlin Chen, Melinda Marquis, Kristen Averyt, Melinda Tignor, and Henry LeRoy Miller (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

  ocean heat content John Abraham, Molly Baringer, Nathan Bindoff, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Jessica Conroy, et al., “A Review of Global Ocean Temperature Observations: Implications for Ocean Heat Content Estimates and Climate Change,” Reviews of Geophysics 51, no. 3 (2013): 450–483, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20022.

  more than 100 percent Thomas Knutson, James Kossin, Carl Mears, Judith Perlwitz, and Michael Wehner, “Detection and Attribution of Climate Change,” in Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, eds. Donald Wuebbles, David Fahey, Kathy Hibbard, David Dokken, Brooke Stewart, and Thomas Maycock (Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018), http://doi.org/10.7930/J01834ND.

  enough to stave off William Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate, 2nd ed. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2016).

  more than 420 ppm Earth System Research Laboratories Global Monitoring Laboratory, “Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases: Trends in CO2,” https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/.

  15 million years ago Aradhna Tripati, Christopher Roberts, and Robert Eagle, “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years,” Science 326, no. 5958 (2009): 1394–1397, http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1178296.

  55 million years Katharine Hayhoe, James Edmonds, Robert Kopp, Allegra LeGrande, Benjamin Sanderson, Michael Wehner, and Donald Wuebbles, “Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections,” in Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, eds. Donald Wuebbles, David Fahey, Kathy Hibbard, David Dokken, Brooke Stewart, and Thomas Maycock (Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018), http://doi.org/10.7930/J0WH2N54.

  sea level was over Ibid.

  ten times the pace Richard Zeebe, Andy Ridgwell, and James Zachos, “Anthropogenic Carbon Release Rate Unprecedented During the Past 66 Million Years,” Nature Geoscience 9 (2016): 325–329, http://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2681.

  CHAPTER 5

  We are so locked Ezra Klein, Why We’re Polarized (New York: Avid Reader Press / Simon & Schuster Inc., 2020).

  2005 hurricane season National Weather Service, “2005 Hurricane Season Records,” https://www.weather.gov/tae/climate_2005review_hurricanes.

  most expensive tropical storm Ibid.

  There’s even a book about it James Hoggan, I’m Right and You’re an Idiot: The Toxic State of Public Discourse and How to Clean it Up, 2nd ed. (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers, 2019).

  “ordinary science intelligence” Dan Kahan, “ ‘Ordinary Science Intelligence’: A Science-Comprehension Measure for Study of Risk and Science Communication with Notes on Evolution and Climate Change,” Journal of Risk Research 20, no. 8 (2016): 995–1016, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1148067.

  People who score high Anthony Leiserowitz, N. Smith, and Jennifer Marlon, “Americans’ Knowledge of Climate Change,” (New Haven: Yale University Project on Climate Change Communication, 2010).

  “people with the highest degree” Dan Kahan, Ellen Peters, Maggie Wittlin, Paul Slovic, Lisa Larrimore Ouellette, Donald Braman, and Gregory Mandel, “The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 732–735, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1547.

  a more recent study Gabriela Czarnek, Malgorzata Kossowska, and Paulina Szwed, “Right-Wing Ideology Reduce the Effects of Education on Climate Change Beliefs in More Developed Countries,” Nature Climate Change 11 (2021): 9–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00930-6.

  we ask ourselves Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York, NY: The Free Press, 1991).

  this type of motivated reasoning D. Perkins, “Postprimary Education Has Little Impact on Informal Reasoning,” Journal of Educational Psychology 77, no. 5 (1985): 562–571, https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0022-0663.77.5.562.

  Rasmus Benestad, collected the studies Rasmus Benestad, Dana Nuccitelli, Stephan Lewandowsky, Katharine Hayhoe, Hans Olav Hygen, Rob van Dorland, and John Cook, “Learning from Mistakes in Climate Research,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 126 (2016): 699–703, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-
015-1597-5.

  As Peter Boghossian and James Lindsay explain Peter Boghossian and James Lindsay, How to Have Impossible Conversations (New York: Lifelong Books, 2019).

  a personal attack on their identity Stephan Lewandowsky, Ullrich Ecker, Colleen Seifert, Norbert Schwarz, and John Cook, “Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Success,” Psychological Science in the Public Interest 13, no. 3 (2012): 106–131, https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1529100612451018.

  a kind of backfire effect Jack Zhou, “Boomerangs Versus Javelins: How Polarization Constrains Communication on Climate Change,” Environmental Politics 25, no. 5 (2016): 788–811, https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2016.1166602.

  the value of belonging Dan Kahan, Ellen Peters, Maggie Wittlin, Paul Slovic, Lisa Larrimore Ouellette, Donald Braman, and Gregory Mandel, “The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks,” Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 732–735, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1547.

  one study where researchers Christopher Bail, Lisa P. Argyle, Taylor W. Brown, John P. Bumpus, Haohan Chen, M. B. Fallin Hunzaker, Jaemin Lee, Marcus Mann, Friedolin Merhout, and Alexander Volfovsky, “Exposure to Opposing Views on Social Media Increase Political Polarization,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115, no. 37 (2018): 9216–9221, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804840115.

  “get a kick out of information.” Tali Sharot, The Influential Mind: What the Brain Reveals About Our Power to Change Others (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 2017).

  teaching kids about climate change Danielle Lawson, Kathryn Stevenson, Nils Peterson, Sarah Carrier, Renee Strand, and Peter Seekamp, “Children Can Foster Climate Change Concern Among Their Parents,” Nature Climate Change 9 (2019): 458–462, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0463-3.

  CHAPTER 6

  “Climate change contains” George Marshall, Don’t Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change (New York: Bloomsbury USA, 2015).