INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

by Jon Sedran

  Acosta glanced up and mumbled, “We will not go it alone, general,” as he continued reading.

  “We have divided the theater into land, sea and air, and the targets list into categories, to include: Infrastructure, Command and Control Systems, Communications, Offensive and Defensive weapons Systems, and Leadership. We have further prioritized individual targets in each category, assigning higher numbers to the more important ones.” Bingham turned to the next page in the operational plan. “For the initial attack on land-based defenses, including radar sites and military airfields, we will rely heavily on air, surface ship, and sub-launched cruise missiles, including our newest and most deadly autonomous AQ-190 stealth drones.” It took Bingham thirty minutes to go through all the details of planned kinetic actions with the President, finally finishing up with the cyber-warfare elements, “Cyber-Command has prepared a plan called ‘Starburst’. It is a virtual “kill switch” which places a virus into their main network nodes and it spreads itself exponentially. It will devastate their communication links. Additionally, some of their hardened command and control nodes will be attacked by electromagnetic pulse, or EMP weapons. These proved highly effective against Iraqi targets…any questions, Mr. President?”

  Acosta turned to the next page. “What about our fighters and bombers?”

  “Our F-22 and F-35 fighters will not fly any offensive operations during the first few days, but will remain on station and challenge any Iranian Air Force aircraft that manage to get airborne. On the third day, our B-2 bombers using stand-off weapons will begin to hit their infrastructure including oil production facilities and government buildings. At this point in the conflict, we envision NATO allied forces joining us.”

  “Are we going to take out their nuke power plants too?” asked Acosta.

  “Mr. President that is in an appendix to this plan…it requires careful consideration as to the potential radiation issues.”

  “But are we prepared to do so general?” Acosta probed.

  “Yes sir, we are.”

  “We will also need to give some warning to the Russians to remove their technicians…please continue General.”

  Bingham glanced down at the plan. “Their naval assets will be hit first by cruise missiles and by navy F-18’s, as well as torpedoes fired from our attack subs. Smaller targets, such as patrol boats and their mini-subs will be neutralized by our carrier based helicopters. We will also employ minesweepers to keep the Strait open for shipping and for our own and allied ship movements.”

  “I suspect mines could be a real problem, general,” said Acosta looking up from the plan.

  “Yes sir, the general admitted. “But Admiral Hardy is certain we are set up well to handle them.”

  “If they bottle up the Strait, oil prices will soar,” noted Acosta.

  Bingham nodded. “Mr. President, within five days we estimate ninety-percent of their defensive systems will be taken down. We will then continue to pound away on their high-value infrastructure targets. This will include their oil refineries and port facilities.”

  “No ground forces general, correct?” asked Acosta looking for assurances.

  Bingham cleared his throat. “Mr. President, small units of Navy Seals will be used to hit some coastal targets, but there is no deployment of large numbers of ground forces in this op plan.”

  “General,” the President began, as he closed his folder, “If you were the Iranian commanding general and you faced an overwhelming military force, what you would do?”

  Bingham put away his notes and thought for a few moments. “As soon as I detected approaching large military forces, I might order a portion of my defenses to shut down and ride out the first couple of waves of attacks, rather than lose it all. I would also use a great many decoys…phony radar emitters, and so on. I guess I would rely heavily on deception. Also, I would be sure I had redundant hardened communication lines.”

  Acosta took a sip of coffee. “Anything else?” he asked.

  “Mr. President, I would concentrate my remaining forces for crippling counter-strikes against a few high value targets, such as our carriers and our bases in neighboring countries. And I would also employ asymmetric warfare tactics, including…large numbers of suicide bombers.”

  “Are we ready for all that?” asked Acosta.

  “Mr. President, as you know any plan is only good until the first shot is fired. But yes, we are ready.”

  “Thank you general. I hope the Iranians are sincere and fulfill the agreement terms to end sanctions in exchange for full IAEA inspections of their nuke facilities and that we never have to use this plan.”

  “I hope so too,” said Bingham. “But you can be certain we are ready if we need to use it.”

  Acosta took off his reading glasses and laid them on the desk. “Thank you, general” he said. Bingham placed the plans back into his attaché case, then got up and left.

  * * * *

  For nearly a decade the four small drums containing the highly enriched U-235 stolen from Pakistan had remained hidden underground at what was now the site of Iran’s Arak nuclear reactor. The background radiation from the reactor effectively masking any radioactive emissions from the material. Javadi had conferred with Namazi and then given his given his permission to move the drums to Oghab-Three. Benuit was then informed by Javadi of the U-235 and told it was excess material and a “gift” from Pakistan. After examining it, he agreed to lead a team that would assemble two devices.

  In an office deep within the secret facility, a presentation was getting underway.

  “Please sit here ayatollah, I have some photographs to show you,” Benuit announced, as he offered Javadi a chair at the table and handed him a folder.

  Benuit stood pointing to items in the photos. “We have successfully re-machined the uranium. In this photo you can see the original U-235 rings and discs we received. The material’s configuration makes me certain it was left over from earlier weapon’s design Pakistan decided not to deploy. Likely the ‘Little Boy’ type America detonated over Hiroshima. Here, you can see they have been re- machined…it was necessary that they be slightly smaller than their original size. We will use the same simple reliable design…a hollow U-235 bullet will be fired down the modified gun barrel you see here and onto a U-235 target spike.” He went on explaining and pointing out other bomb components in the photos.

  Javadi nodded as he slowly scanned each photo.

  “My tests show the U-235 we received will work well for this purpose.”

  Very good,” Javadi said, smiling slightly.

  Benuit nervously continued, “The assistance provided by our friends in Pakistan has been invaluable. We have been enriching for years, and do not yet have nearly this much weapons-grade material.”

  Javadi shifted in his chair. “How much longer until you can move to the next phase?” he asked, impatiently.

  “Ayatollah, I’m sure you can appreciate how difficult it has been to complete this project in secret without allowing the others to know what we are doing. We have to be very careful, many things can go wrong….and mistakes can be …well, disastrous,” he said, wiping perspiration off his upper lip.

  “I understand doctor, but we must move expeditiously to avoid discovery. The Americans have spies everywhere, as do the Zionists. Our deception has worked so far, but there are limits.”

  “Ayatollah, certainly your plan is bold and audacious,” Benuit offered, meekly. “But, well, I remain concerned about not telling the others.”

  Javadi looked up, glaring at him. “I will tell them when it is the right time. And you must also keep the other project on schedule as well…do you understand?”

  Benuit averted his eyes. “Of course, of course, it is coming along and is only slightly behind schedule.”

  “If we succeed, the Zionist state will be gone…it is a one-nuke country,” Javadi declared, almost smiling.

  “But surely they will blame us, as will their American allies,” Benuit protes
ted.

  Javadi nodded. “Yes, but you are using Pakistani nuclear material and delivery will be by a third party, leaving no connection to us.”

  “I see,” Benuit mumbled, as he collected up the photos.

  “Thank you,” Javadi said, pulling out his cell phone to check for messages.

  * * * *

  Back in D.C. Maddy sat re-reading the secure message Hernandez had sent about the walk-in informant and the alleged theft of a shipment of U-235 in Pakistan. She could follow proper procedures and assign someone from DIA’s Clandestine Service to check it out. But, perhaps she could convince Lowe to let her go instead. True, she had no experience, but this might be the perfect opportunity to get some. Success would certainly give her more credibility with the largely male staff at the agency. She caught up on reading her e-mails, and then sent one off to Lowe explaining what she had in mind, before calling it a day.

  Heading home, she began to wonder, Am I being stubborn…I do want that damn promotion, but….

  Maddy’s cell phone rang just as she entered the freeway. The Blue Tooth device connected the call through the car’s audio system.

  “Maddy here.”

  “Mark here, Maddy.”

  “Mark, good to hear from you. How have you been?”

  “Good Maddy, I feel like a huge burden has been lifted off my shoulders with no more business to manage.”

  “You won’t get bored, will you?” she asked.

  “No, no I don’t think so.”

  “I have to tell you something Mark. I am going to be a world traveler for a few days.”

  “Where are you headed?” asked Mark.

  “Specifically, I can’t say. But I am going to one of the world’s usual ‘hot spots’.”

  “I’m sure it will be exciting for you...off to save the world.”

  “Something like that…I will call you when I get back Mark…maybe we can talk more.”

  “I would like that Maddy. You take care and be safe.”

  “Goodbye Mark,” she said and ended the call.

  * * * *

  In Tehran, there was clearly anger as Massoud finished his report to the Guardian Council.

  “With the sanctions removed things will soon get better. Food prices are stable and there are fewer shortages of gasoline. If we allow the IEAE inspectors to have full access to our facilities, the Americans will agree not to reinstate the sanctions.” He glanced down at his notes, “I will tell you our people have endured great hardships, but now we can again sell our oil and buy needed materials on the world markets.”

  Javadi gave the president a look of contempt. “We gave in to these devils, but they will never stop.”

  Massoud looked at Javadi and nodded. “But, can we not allow full inspections?” he asked. “After all, we have nothing to hide…we are pursuing only peaceful nuclear power.”

  For a few moments the table fell silent. The silence ended as a red-faced Javadi leaned forward and said, “We have allowed the inspectors all the access they need. We have cooperated fully…the damn Americans will never be satisfied.”

  The exasperated Massoud looked around the table and then at Javadi. “We cannot afford to have the sanctions put back on, it would end all our progress,” he pleaded. “It would again cripple oil production because we will not be able to get replacement parts. Our negotiator will go to the U.N again in three weeks to discuss allowing the inspectors greater access to our nuclear sites and further scaling back uranium enrichment…Ayatollah Kaviani has approved this,” Massoud reported.

  Javadi was seething. Kaviani is weak…and too old, he thought. I pleaded with him to stall a while longer…we need more time to complete the projects.

  Javadi nodded slowly. He could see there was no point in resisting further. He had wanted to stall a while longer knowing that once the program was successfully completed Iran could negotiate from a position of strength. Mobile long-range missiles with nuclear warheads would be nearly impossible to find and destroy. A Russian-made Kilo class sub was also being retro-fitting to fire a new missile. I will have to move quickly, Javadi thought, as the meeting adjourned. Benuit had assured him the weapons grade uranium and plutonium could be kept safely away from the U.N. inspectors’ prying eyes. There was not yet enough plutonium or enriched uranium to complete the main program. But the two other special devices were progressing nicely and they could not be discovered.

  * * * *

  Marshall was wrapping up his briefing to the President and Secretary of State in the Oval Office on the National Intelligence Estimate of Iran’s nuclear program.

  Acosta held the report in front of him. “Okay, so the conclusion reached in this assessment is that there are no Iranian nukes and they are not pursuing any.”

  Marshall nodded. “Yes, Mr. President unless we are allowed inside their nuclear program, or are able to place someone in there, we will never be one-hundred percent certain. But that is the consensus, and so far the IAEA has verified there have been no violations of the agreement.”

  “Mr. President this sounds like the all-clear for that face-to-face Iranian President Massoud has been requesting,” said Kragen.

  Acosta highlighted one line in the report. “Cabot, I see DIA still harbors some doubts.” He read it out loud, “The partially restricted IAEA access means that certain activities possibly related to nuclear weapons production may still be underway and remain concealed from the inspectors.”

  “Mr. President, with all due respect to my esteemed colleagues at DIA, they have been unable to provide any proof…in a decade,” Marshall firmly responded.

  “CIA, DIA, Mossad, and at least five other intelligence agencies, have been trying to prove the Iranians are making a bomb, but so far no solid proof at all,” added Kragen.

  “Unfortunately, the only one-hundred percent proof might be a confirming reading on a seismograph …or a mushroom cloud,” said Acosta. He leaned back and closed his eyes for a moment “Still, I’m willing to take the chance. Let’s tell them I will meet him…Massoud seems sincere.”

  “Israeli Prime Minister Klein will be furious,” Kragen threw out.

  “I know,” said Acosta, “The Israeli ambassador is waiting outside the office right now for our meeting right after this…I’m sure we will get an earful. Cabot, thank you for the briefing.”

  Marshall gave a slight smile and nod as he walked past the ambassador seated just outside the Oval Office.

  “You may go in now Mr. Ambassador,” announced the receptionist.

  The President stood and welcomed his guest. “Please have a seat.”

  “Thank you Mr. President and Madam Secretary,” said Hiram Glick as he took a seat and opened his attaché case. He would waste no time reiterating his country’s displeasure with the removal of economic sanctions, and to press the President to reassess Iran’s true intentions.

  He removed some documents, handing a copy to Acosta and one Kragen as he began, “Mr. President, Madam Secretary, I have here some Mossad intercepts of Iranian military communications. I’m afraid you are providing Iran with more time and access to more resources to build a nuclear weapon. The Iranian threat is not just a threat to Israel; the intercepts you are looking at clearly show the Iranian regime is hiding a large nuclear weapons program. With many of the sanctions removed, they will have no reason to slow their program down.”

  “There is still nothing definite here,” said Acosta, glancing through a summary of Mossad’s intelligence report. “The Iranian President seems willing to work with us, and my own sources have mostly confirmed no nuke program, as well. You know we will put the sanctions back on if any IAEA reports or our own intelligence shows they are building a bomb.”

  Glick leaned forward. “Mr. President, with all due respect, they are building a bomb and once they have it and a missile to launch it, the world will change forever…and not for the better,” he warned.

  “Mr. Ambassador, for fifteen years our intelligence agencies have been un
able to agree on whether or not Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon,” said Kragen. “The agencies have vast resources at their disposal and still have been unable to find any conclusive proof of a clandestine bomb program. The IAEA has given Iran a clean bill of health, so far.”

  “The Mossad has been able to get people inside, and this report shows how far the Iranians have come,” said Glick. “Look on page two: Three small and one large secret facility hidden from the inspectors. Two-thousand new centrifuges installed.”

  Acosta looked skeptically at the report then removed his reading glasses. “I will have our people check it all out,” he assured him. “Our two countries cooperated on the STUXNET virus and we will do more in the future to stop them…if we confirm they are trying to build a bomb.”

  “STUXNET was a great success Mr. President, but they have improved their defenses against future cyber-attacks,” Glick informed him.

  “And we have greatly improved our cyber-techniques as well…as I understand it, your country has too,” replied Acosta, adding, “We are one-hundred percent committed to engaging them in cyber warfare, when appropriate.”

  “Mr. President, the Saudis contacted us again; they share our concerns,” he threw out, adding, “But Israel will stand alone if we have too.”

  “Mr. Ambassador, it would be foolish to launch a strike on your own,” warned Kragen. “Our military has reviewed your capabilities and does not believe your forces could be successful. You will only invite a large counter-strike and be branded as the aggressor…you might even start a wider war.”