INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURE Page 21

by Jon Sedran


  The bridge crew of the St Paul was not even sure what they had just witnessed. They all stared in disbelief. There had been no time to activate image recording equipment.

  “Captain! It looks like that Iranian frigate just blew up,” exclaimed the XO.

  “Yes, I can see that,” replied Olson looking through his binoculars. “Send a priority secure flash message to fleet, tell them what just happened,” he ordered.

  “Aye, aye, captain,” acknowledged the XO.

  “Maybe some sort of an accident, skipper?” the XO wondered aloud, half-jokingly. “They are known to be careless.”

  The captain shook his head. “Right!...No a torpedo, most likely,” he offered, as he scanned the horizon with binoculars. “Dead slow; get ready to rescue any survivors.” The St. Paul slowed to a stop directly over where the Avland had all but disappeared. Searchlights were turned on as the as the crew began to look for survivors in the fading twilight. For the next forty-five minutes they continued to search and send updates to fleet via satellite.

  “Captain, message…new orders, fleet advises complete search ASAP and continue on toward the Gulf of Oman. Do not enter Yemeni waters,” reported the communication’s officer.

  Olson nodded.

  “Captain, only three life empty vests and a few pieces of flotsam…the crew fished them out of the water,” reported the XO.

  Olson sent a follow-up flash message to fleet advising what they had found and informing them they were getting back underway. He offered no conjecture of what might have been the cause of the frigate’s sinking. Fleet acknowledged.

  Davis sent in his report along with images taken through the periscope as the Virginia also got back underway.

  CHAPTER NINETEEN

  On board the carrier George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf, Vice Admiral Pamela (Pam) Morris received the flash message over the fleet secure net just as she was sitting down to a late dinner with the Captain Robert Clancy and his senior officers. It was marked ‘TOP SECRET/SI/NF URGENT and was hand-carried to her from the ship’s Combat Information Center.

  She read the short message from the St. Paul relayed through the fifth Fleet.

  Arabian Sea, 1500 hours UTC, observed Iranian frigate Avland coming at us head-on.

  Avland was travelling at about thirty knots

  They announced for us to heave to and their intentions to board us.

  We made several warning calls to them.

  At about 1,500 yards, they were observed swiveling their main deck gun

  At a distance of approximately one-thousand yards, the Iranian ship experienced a

  large explosion of unknown origin, suspect torpedo.

  Ship broke in two and sank immediately

  Searching for survivors-None located so far

  Signed: Olson

  Admiral Morris got up from the table. “Excuse me everyone…Captain Clancy, would you please come with me?” The admiral walked toward the exit hatch, followed by Clancy. She handed him the message as they walked briskly through the labyrinth of ship’s corridors to the Combat Information Center.

  “What was that was all about?” an officer at the table wondered aloud, adding, “Oh well.” They all went back to eating their meal. By the time they arrived at the CIC, another flash priority message was waiting for the admiral. She quickly read it and handed it to Clancy.

  USS Virginia traveling off coast of Yemen.

  Iranian frigate Avland closing on a direct head-to-head course with St. Paul.

  Heard them order St Paul to stop and be boarded.

  Fire control radar was active and observed them swiveling their forward deck gun.

  Heard St. Paul warn them on radio.

  Immediate threat. Fired one torpedo at 1510 hours UTC

  Avland sank immediately. Unknown status of survivors

  Have resumed course, proceeding to join fleet.

  Signed: DAVIS

  “Captain, suggest we get ready…after that other incident in the Strait, this will surely escalate very quickly,” advised Morris.

  “Agree,” replied Clancy, adding, “We will be very high value target for them if they decide to retaliate.”

  “And they likely will,” Morris threw out.

  “Everyone listen up,” Clancy directed the CIC crew working in the darkened room illuminated by the glow of the numerous displays. Crewmembers looked away from their displays and removed their headsets. “A short time ago in the Arabian Sea one of our subs sank the Iranian frigate Avland when they were threatening to fire on the St Paul and to board it. We’re expecting trouble, let’s be ready.”

  The crewmembers glanced at each other as the admiral looked on and then they went back to their displays.

  “I expect we’ll hear from the CNO shortly,” surmised Morris.

  “Clancy nodded. “I’m going up to the bridge.”

  On board the St. Paul and on the Virginia, crews resumed their normal duties as both ships headed toward the Strait of Hormuz, uncertain of what awaited them.

  * * * *

  “Admiral Hardy, Flash message from Fifth Fleet,” announced the duty officer in the Joint Chief’s Office in the Pentagon. Hardy read it quickly and then read it out loud to the other Service Chiefs and Chairman. “The attack sub Virginia was forced to torpedo and sink an Iranian naval vessel in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Yemen. The Iranian frigate Avland was heading directly at the cargo ship St. Paul. The Virginia picked up radio transmissions from the Avland telling the St Paul to heave to and prepare to be boarded. At a range of about fifteen hundred yards and closing, the Virginia detected an active fire control radar and observed the frigate’s deck gun rotating. The Virginia fired one torpedo. It was a direct hit and the ship sank immediately. Crew of the cargo ship St. Paul stopped to look for survivors, but found none.” Hardy paused and then added, “The President has a copy of the report.”

  “General Bingham, the White House on secure line two,” interrupted an aide.

  Bingham promptly picked up the call. “General Bingham speaking.”

  “General, the President wants to convene the Security Council in the Situation Room in thirty minutes,” said the President’s National Security Advisor.

  “I’m on my way,” replied Bingham.

  * * * *

  Hezbollah’s senior military commander Rafiq Marid shared Sheik al-Salim’s vision. He wanted to see Israel destroyed and a reborn Palestinian state created in its place. He had been a dedicated Hezbollah commander for fifteen years and had shown his bravery in fierce fighting during the two-thousand six Israel-Lebanon War.

  Four men had been brought to the secret location of the Beirut headquarters of the Hezbollah leader Sheik Saeed Hassan al-Salim. They had been blindfolded for the trip there. The sheik knew he was a likely target for assassination by the Israelis and he could not take any chances. Then men were led into a small building, where their blindfolds were removed. They were escorted down a flight of stairs to a basement room near the end of a hallway. Al-Salim stood waiting.

  “Sheik al-Salim, these four men have been selected to be guardians of Islam and help us to destroy the infidels,” announced Marid, as they entered the room. “They are from Saudi Arabia…they all have some flying experience and they have all volunteered for jihad. They share a common hatred of our Zionist enemy and all wish to be martyred for the glory of Allah.”

  “Allah will reward all of you,” al-Salim assured them, nodding his approval and warmly greeting each man. “You will be martyrs and all of Islam will know and honor your names. Your families will be well taken care of and they will be proud of you.”

  One of the four spoke up. “The infidels killed Sheik Osama, we will do jihad,” he said. The other three mumbled, “Allah Akbar.”

  “You will have your revenge,” said al-Salim.

  Marid stepped up to the men. “You will all be sent for training in Damascus to prepare you for your missions.”

  “We are all grateful for this op
portunity to become martyrs,” said one of them.

  “You all have great courage,” replied Marid. He motioned toward the door. “Our driver is waiting in the hallway and will take you to your hotel. You will leave for training in the morning.” The four men quietly filed out of the room.

  As soon as the door had closed al-Salim asked, “Can they be trusted?”

  “Yes, I have questioned them extensively, “answered Marid. “They have a deep hatred of America and the Zionists. Remember the martyrs that crashed into the American buildings were Saudis, as well.”

  Al-Salim nodded. “I trust your judgment commander.”

  Marid scrolled through his smart phone screen. “Two have some flying experience,” he said. “If any of them cause problems, or fail their training, their bones will of course be food for the hyenas.”

  “Praise be to Allah,” said al-Salim.

  * * * *

  It was just a question of time, Acosta thought, as he entered the Situation Room to begin the emergency meeting of the Security Council.

  “We all knew something like this was bound to happen,” announced Alby to the gathering members, adding, “The Iranian Navy has been provoking our. ships for weeks now, sooner or later somebody would miscalculate.

  “Everyone, please keep your seats,” said Acosta as he entered the room and took his seat at the conference table. “What’s the latest?”

  Bingham began. “Mr. President, satellite imagery is showing nearly all Iranian naval ships are putting to sea. Iranian military communications traffic is soaring. DIA intelligence reports have all Iranian military assets at full alert status. Our ships and aircraft have detected numerous Iranian land based and shipboard fire-control radars coming on line.”

  “Alright, let’s not let this escalate. The Russians seem to have found out as quickly as we did. I just got a call from President Koslov. He is threatening to offer direct military assistance to Iran if we attack any more Iranian ships. He says we appear to be the aggressors.”

  “That’s bullshit, Mr. President, we have clear evidence of hostile intent,” said Bingham.

  “Okay general, so what the hell happened?”

  “Sir, I asked Admiral Hardy to fill you in…he has the most up to date information,” replied Bingham.

  Acosta nodded.

  Hardy began, “Mr. President, the St Paul was in international waters heading for Aden when the Iranian frigate Avland arrived. The sub Virginia was shadowing the St Paul and was listening to radio transmissions. The Avland broadcast for the St Paul to stop and be boarded. The Virginia also detected the Avland activating their fire-control radar and rotating their main deck gun. The St Paul repeatedly sent radio messages warning off the Avland, but there was no response.” He paused and then added, “At this point, there was a direct and immediate threat. The Virginia fired one torpedo which sank the Avland.

  “Where were the ships exactly?” asked Acosta.

  Admiral Hardy turned his laptop screen displaying a map of the area, to face the President. “Mr. President our ships were here off the southwestern tip of Yemen near the port of Aden.” He pointed to a place on the map and then to another one. “The St Paul had sailed through the Red Sea and was bringing supplies to the Yemeni forces.”

  “They were in international waters, Mr. President,” Bingham assured him.

  “Mr. President, the Iranian ship was heading straight at them and announced they planned what would amount to an illegal boarding. They also had their fire control radar on and they were seen swiveling their main deck gun,” hardy added.

  The President glanced up at a wall monitor; CNN was not yet carrying the story. “We fired first, and they never fired, correct?” the President asked. He tapped his pencil on the desk and took a deep breath.

  “Yes sir, Hardy replied, adding, “They were clearly a serious threat.”

  Acosta nodded.

  “Mr. President, NSA intercepts seem to indicate the Iranians still don’t know for sure what happened to their ship. They suspect we sank it, but NSA Iranian communications traffic intercepts indicate they are arguing amongst themselves,” reported Marshall.

  “Well, we did sink it, and they will figure it out…and after those two patrol boats were sunk, we can expect a much stronger response this time. Does anyone want to guess their next move?” asked Acosta.

  “I suspect they will mine the Strait again,” offered Hardy. “Likely this time with thousands of mines. But we will be ready Mr. President.”

  Acosta was wearing a grim look. “General Bingham?” said Acosta.

  “We should expect the mines for sure…and a lot more than that.”

  “I agree, a lot more than that…this is going to ugly, that I am certain of,” said Acosta. “Be ready for anything.”

  “Mr. President, the Fifth fleet went to DEFCON Three after that patrol boat incident, then has since stood down to Four. I suggest we go to Three again,” said Bingham.

  Acosta sighed loudly and shook his head. “Yes, prepare for the worst everyone, and pray it doesn’t happen.”

  * * * *

  In a secure underground room in the command center under Tehran’s main government building, a frustrated Ayatollah Kaviani was demanding more details on the possible sinking of the Avland. “Admiral Tovar, damn it, is it sunk, or not?” he thundered.

  The admiral could not be uncertain. “Ayatollah, we are sending out two search planes now and we have a boat looking too. But all contact was lost two hours ago. We are assuming it has been sunk.”

  Kaviani stood up and looked around the room. “Assemble the senior military planning staff, and get your minelaying ships ready,” He directed in a loud voice. Then he threw his arms up. “No, get the whole navy ready, our response will be more than putting down some mines.”

  “All fleet assets have already been placed at the highest alert level Ayatollah, and our ships are putting to sea,” explained Tovar, frantically making calls and trying to get information.

  Kaviani shook his head and mumbled, “Damn them,” as he stormed out of the room.

  * * * *

  General Lowe got the flash priority message on the Avland’s sinking through secure channels. He immediately called Maddy and the entire senior staff together to go over the information he had and to discuss what to expect next. Leaves would most likely have to be cancelled. What would Iran’s most likely military moves be? Mining the Strait seemed a near certainty and they had many other military options available as well.

  DIA staff would be called upon to provide timely accurate intelligence on the movement of Iranian forces and the deployment of their military assets. Everyone understood any mistakes or omissions could cost U.S. lives.

  * * * *

  The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service known by its shorter name, Sluzhba Vneshnei Razvedki, abbreviated SVR, is Russia's primary external intelligence agency. The SVR is responsible for intelligence and espionage activities outside the Russian Federation.

  The government limousine left SVR Deputy Director General Dobrinin and Air Force General Yakovlev off at the side entrance to the Kremlin. A military guard checked their credentials, and then opened the door for them. They proceeded down a short hallway to an elevator which took them down three floors beneath the Kremlin to the command post. They entered a large room with a nineteenth century hand-carved mahogany table in the center. On one wall a near life size portrait of the hero of the Great Patriotic War, Field Marshall Romanov, stared down at them. A meeting had been requested at the highest levels and would be attended by Russian President Koslov. Already seated at the table was the Russian Defense Minister Dmitry Andropov and Chief of the General Staff, General Certov. The two generals entered the room and took their seats at the table.

  “Good afternoon comrade generals, and good afternoon Comrade President,” said Andropov, as Koslov entered through a door at the back of the room.

  Koslov took his seat and immediately began to speak. “In light of this ne
w development…the apparent sinking of the Iranian warship by the Americans, certain matters have taken on a new urgency.”

  “Comrade President, General Yakovlev has just returned from Tehran with some new information,” Andropov reported, “As you are aware, the general was sent to assist Iran with deploying our newest weapons, but is also assigned to SVR to keep us informed about Iran’s possible nuclear weapons program,” He motioned toward Yakovlev, “Please comrade general, tell us what you have found out.”

  Yakovlev glanced down at some notes and frowned. He had already sent back reports several times before but received no replies. “Comrade President, as I have reported, I have seen strong evidence the Iranians are in fact enriching uranium to build nuclear bombs. And in the interest of preventing another global war, I think we need to tell the Americans what was seen.”

  “Perhaps general, but first let’s go over the reports,” directed Andropov. “Your information from Tehran is incomplete…please give us more details.”

  Yakovlev bristled at Andropov’s comments. “Comrade Minister, for the past two years my source has proven to be highly reliable. He is one of our most experienced nuclear technicians and is not prone toward exaggeration.” He took a deep breath, and then began reading out loud, “His reports on Natanz have included the following: Numerous excavations done and concrete poured during odd times such as late at night and while the U.N. inspectors are not there. Corridors which were off-limits to our technicians, with no logical explanation given. Upon arriving at the facility late one night when he was not expected, he observed men loading what appeared to be billets of uranium into the back of a truck. He checked and there were no shipments due to leave the plant for several more days. The shape and size of the billets he saw were not a type typically in use there.” He took a sip of water, “Is it not also suspicious that all of our technicians were told to leave the facility?” He glanced at the faces around the table, “On his last day, our technician decided to snoop around a little. He stated he went down an underground corridor he had never been in before. He noticed a normally well-concealed door had been left open and unguarded. He looked in and saw a room, perhaps fifty by eighty meters. He went only a meter inside to avoid detection and saw what he estimates were several hundred centrifuges. He is very knowledgeable in these, and stated they were configured in a manner normally done to increase the level of enrichment more quickly.”

 

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