INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURE Page 22

by Jon Sedran


  The others listened patiently, then Koslov said, “Comrade General, you know the final agreement they signed allows them to continue some enrichment activities.”

  “Yes, Comrade President, I know that,” Yakovlev replied, adding, “But he said that as he turned to quickly leave the room, he saw something written on a board near the door which was most troubling. There was a flow diagram of the centrifuge arrangement with three distinct sections depicted. At the top of the board was written, ‘Feed UF6 forty-percent’. There were two outputs listed, ‘Sixty-Percent’ and ‘Eighty-Percent’. This is far above what is needed for nuclear power production and not allowed by the agreement.”

  Upon hearing this, the men’s expressions changed from concerned to grim. Certov sat silently for a moment, and then asked, “Comrade general, did he say how long this room he saw had likely been in operation?”

  “He reported everything looked very new; maybe a few months,” replied Yakovlev.

  “Anything else general?” asked Andropov, as Koslov listened intently.

  “No, nothing more.”

  Andropov sighed. “With this limited information, is it a really good idea to inform the Americans?” he asked, “The situation is already highly unstable since the unfortunate events in the Strait of Hormuz last month, and now again with the sinking of the Iranian destroyer.” He lowered his reading glasses on his nose, “We will only further increase the American’s willingness to use pre-emptive force against our strategic ally if we give them this information, which is incomplete and has not been substantiated.”

  “Yes, I agree the Americans are looking for any new reason to attack Iran,” Certov threw out. “They are practically admitting they sank the Iranian ship just because they thought it might be a threat.”

  Yakovlev listened patiently, and then said, “Comrades, we may never know for certain what happened…the Americans claim they were in fact, provoked.”

  “They have no proof, just their word,” Andropov responded, clearly agitated.

  Koslov looked around the table. “Why don’t we just tell the U.N. to send in their inspectors? Let them deal with this?”

  “They would likely suspect one of our technicians reported them and this could jeopardize our very lucrative future nuclear plant construction contracts,” Andropov replied.

  “I informed President Acosta they are risking a wider war with their actions and must show greater restraint. I told him of our intentions to resupply Iran with more advanced weapons if they were attacked by U.S. or NATO forces,” Koslov stated, emphatically.

  “Yes, we cannot sit back and allow further American aggression to go unchallenged,” Certov threw out.

  Yakovlev could barely contain his anger at being brushed off. “Comrades, I believe the Americans may be right about the Iranian bomb. That is why I presented this information to you,” he said, as he put away his notes.

  Koslov had made up his mind. “We will hold the information for now, until we have more,” he directed. “It is not compelling enough, and General Certov is right, it will only provide the Americans further justification to attack Iran.”

  “I agree,” said Andropov, adding, “General Yakovlev, you will return to Iran and focus your efforts on improving their air defenses.”

  “Understood,” Yakovlev replied tersely. He could clearly see if he was going to act to inform the Americans of the enrichment, he would have to do so alone and at great risk to himself.

  “The Americans will continue to push; it is their arrogant way,” said Andropov.

  “And we will push back,” declared Koslov, getting up to leave. “By the way, our top economic analysts see the Americans bankrupting themselves in the not too distant future, he said. “Their hegemony will end in tears for them. They will go away just like our beloved Soviet Union.”

  * * * *

  At NATO headquarters, in Brussels, Belgium NATO leadership met to discuss the American request for NATO assets to augment possible U.S. military operations against Iran in the Persian Gulf. The NATO Secretary General had just received a hard-copy of the request and was reviewing it. The Joint Chiefs had asked the President to make the request, deciding it would be likely hostilities would break out soon as a result of the sinking of the Iranian destroyer.

  The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee was also reviewing the document and looked over maps of the area. “Gentlemen, while we have numerous agreements binding NATO to come to the aid of a member country if a member country is attacked, in this case the Americans weren’t attacked.”

  “Yes, it appears the Americans did the attacking,” offered the German senior NATO naval officer.

  “They say they attacked pre-emptively in the face of reckless Iranian provocation,” responded a British admiral on the committee.

  “They have offered little proof,” added a French NATO general.

  “It appears the Iranians were clearly trying to provoke a response, which they succeeded in doing…they were just unaware of the American sub nearby. At any rate, I am not prepared to challenge the American version of events. Let’s move forward with preparations,” directed the Secretary General. He glanced down at a contingency plan. “If this does turn into something on a large scale, it will certainly disrupt oil supplies. We must be prepared respond quickly or economic chaos will quickly result throughout Europe.”

  In London the American request for NATO air and naval assets to augment U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, was being also reviewed at the highest levels of government.

  “The Americans are expecting they may have to create a no-fly zone over all of Iran and will need us to help them enforce it,” the British Prime Minister announced to his military staff.

  “Mister Prime Minister, we estimate that will take nearly one-hundred aircraft…and first Iran’s numerous air defences must be completely suppressed, including their advanced Russian-made surface to air missiles,” stated the Chief of the Defence Staff.

  The Prime Minister quickly looked over the American request. “They have already ready begun to deploy their aircraft and will furnish at least seventy-five fighters and bombers, and hundreds of cruise missiles and advanced drones,” replied the Prime Minister.

  “They are asking other NATO countries to supply at least another fifty,” reported the Air Chief Marshall, looking over the request and adding, “They want us to provide mostly front-line fighter support. They will also provide around-the-clock AWACs theater asset coordination.”

  British Admiral York reviewed the request in hand. “And I see they want us to further augment their Fifth Fleet naval assets, as well…what about those damned mines the Iranians love to deploy?” he asked, shaking his head.

  “Sir, no reports of any mines being laid yet,” reported a senior naval staff officer.

  “Thank you, but our intelligence shows the Iranians have stockpiled several thousand more of the easily deployable mines, replied York, adding, “I don’t want our ships resting on the bottom.”

  The Prime Minister tossed the report down. “Gentlemen, we cannot just sit back wait for every threat to be removed,” he advised, getting up to leave. He surveyed the room for few moments. “We will agree to their request if it comes to war. Operate our naval and air assets with the appropriate caution,” he directed as he walked out.

  * * * *

  Sitting in his Tehran office, a furious Ayatollah Kaviani had had enough. He had allowed President Massoud and Admiral Tovar a few days to find out exactly what happened to the Avland. It was clear to him the American’s had again attacked and sunk an Iranian ship without provocation. Now he personally called Tovar, skipping the chain of command.

  “Admiral Tovar! These American aggressions are intolerable. I am not going to wait for another phony investigation into the sinking…we know what happened…they sank our ship and murdered the whole crew,” he roared into the phone. “Start laying mines again quickly in the Strait, and make sure our navy is ready for war, do you understand?”
he raged.

  “Yes, Ayatollah, we will begin right away,” Tovar replied.

  “Good,” Kaviani said, nearly shouting into the phone. Then he slammed down the receiver. Tovar immediately began to call his subordinate commanders.

  CHAPTER TWENTY

  For three days after the sinking of the Avland there had been no Iranian military response. All that was about to change.

  The President got the call from his Defense Secretary at nine am during a White House breakfast. “Mr. President the Iranian navy has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormouz. The Joint Chiefs have assured me we have minesweepers in place and are ready to clear the channel.”

  “Okay, thank you Alex,” replied Acosta,” adding, “Let’s convene the Security Council in an hour and go over our options.”

  The room was tense as the Security Council members gathered. So far, the Iranians were reported to be only laying mines and no other military operations were occurring. All knew that would not likely last for long. Acosta was anxious to find a diplomatic solution and avoid an all-out war. The U.S. Navy, with assistance from the British, was set to begin mine sweeping operations shortly. Acosta directed the Secretary of State to use every diplomatic channel to push for a peaceful resolution. On the wall-mounted T.V, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Fulbright, was finishing his speech before the U.N. Security Council, defending the sinking of the Iranian frigate Avland. The president turned up the volume.

  The audience was mostly hostile and unbelieving. Undaunted, Fulbright pressed on. “As I have stated before, our position is that the U.S. Navy submarine Virginia sank the Avland only in the pre-emptive defense of a nearby U.S. Navy cargo ship. The Iranian ship appeared to be about to attack.” He paused, took a sip of water, and continued, “For months the Iranian navy has been playing dangerous games on the high seas in international waters. They have harassed our ships and on several occasions forced them to take evasive action to avoid collisions. I have already provided each of you with the details from our naval records. The Virginia fired the torpedo only as a last resort. The Avland’s crew repeatedly refused to heed warning calls to change heading. It has its fire control radar active and was observed bringing its forward deck gun to the ready position. Every one of our naval commanders has standing orders to avoid a confrontation, whenever it is possible to do so.”

  Acosta muted the sound as they discussed their options for the next half hour. The vote to condemn the U.S naval action and label America as the aggressor was twelve to three in favor. The U.S. vetoed the resolution and a disgusted Fulbright got up and angrily walked out.

  Well that went well,” Acosta said, looking down and shaking his head. Our options are limited if we are to avoid a full scale confrontation. We have the support of NATO, but as you can see there is a lot of skepticism regarding our version of what happened to that Iranian ship.” He set his reading glasses aside. “This is all about perceptions and frankly, we are losing the PR battle…we are seen as an arrogant and war-like nation...no matter what we know to be true. At any rate, if they only lay mines, can we sweep them and still avoid a major confrontation?”

  “Yes sir, I’m confident we can,” replied Hardy, adding,” If they refrain from firing on our ships, we can do the same.”

  “President Massoud will no longer take my calls…have you had any luck with any of your diplomatic channels, Nancy?”

  “No, Mr. President, they seemed to have slammed the door shut.” Acosta listened to suggestions and received reports on Iranian mine laying operations for almost two hours. But he knew there were few good options.

  “Okay, we have to keep trying…we will meet again as conditions warrant.”

  * * * *

  In the early morning darkness in the Nevada desert, twenty-five miles south of the barely on the map town of Rachel, a USAF C-17 transport aircraft is descending toward the large concrete runway.

  “Tower, Ghost Two-seven is with you, ten out, with Victor.”

  “Roger Ghost Two-seven continue, report the field in sight,” replied the tower controller.

  “Ghost Two-seven,” radioed back USAF Lieutenant Colonel Jim Taylor, confirming the instructions, as he sat in the pilot’s seat of the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III.

  The Boeing C-17 was one of the fleet of C-17’s assigned to the USAF’s Air Mobility Command. His co-pilot on this mission was First Lieutenant Jeremy Stevens and the plane’s loadmaster Master Sergeant Gregory Simms.

  Taylor was pushing through forty, short and stocky with a receding hairline, and a highly proficient pilot. If the U.S. Air Force would just leave him alone and allow him to fly missions, he would stay in forever. He didn’t really care if he ever got promoted again so long as he could fly. But, the Air Force brass saw him as an officer first, and a pilot second. To them, he had put in enough time at the controls and was ready for a career-enhancing desk job.

  God, how I love flying, Col Taylor thought as he maneuvered the big plane, now on a five mile final approach to the Air Force Flight Test Center. My next job is flying desk, great. The wing commander had informed him the bad news just before he departed on this mission; his next assignment was at the Pentagon.

  At eight miles out from the runway, Taylor slowed the big plane down and instructed Stevens, “Let’s go through the before landing checklist,” adding, “Gear down.”

  Stevens repeated, “Gear down,” as he moved the gear actuation handle down and watched for confirmation the gear was down and locked. Simultaneously, he brought up the ‘before landing checklist’

  on the display screen in front of him.

  At six miles out Taylor instructed, “Tell them we have the field in sight.”

  “Checklist complete,” advised Stevens, before keying the microphone. “Tower, Ghost two-seven, five out, gear down, we have the field in sight,” he radioed.

  The tower controller promptly replied, “Ghost two-seven, cleared to land runway three-two, winds three-six zero at ten.”

  “Cleared to land, runway three-two, Ghost two-seven,” confirmed Stevens on the radio.

  To fly this particular mission, the three crewmembers all held Top Secret clearances and had received a special briefing before departing Palmdale AF Plant Number Forty-Two. They were about to land at the high-security USAF’s Groom Lake test facility located in a remote area of the Nevada Test Site about one-hundred thirty-five miles north of Las Vegas. The area has been referred to over the years as Area 51, nomenclature left over from the old Nevada Nuclear Testing Site numbering system. It is here that America’s latest cutting edge weapons technology is tested and proven away from prying eyes.

  Taylor set the four-engine plane down on the runway as gently as anyone could. The main gear touching down first, creating a small cloud of blue grey smoke, then slowly lowering the nose gear to the runway. He applied the brakes and the big plane gradually slowed down.

  “Ghost two-seven, taxi via taxiways Charlie and Delta to the ramp, stay this frequency,” instructed the controller.

  “Via Charlie and Delta to the ramp, Ghost two-seven,” Stevens replied.

  “We are supposed to park in hanger eighteen, correct?” Taylor inquired of his co-pilot, just to be sure.

  Just then the radio came to life again. “Ghost two-seven, they want to park you in hanger eighteen at the south end of the ramp, we have a vehicle coming out to guide you.”

  “Roger that, we have him,” said Stevens, looking over at Taylor and pointing to the vehicle.

  Still just starting to get light outside, Taylor carefully maneuvered the plane behind the guide vehicle on the concrete apron around to the rear of the hanger. Both the front and rear hangar doors were open as the C-17 taxied up. Inside a marshaller with illuminated wands began to direct them in. Taylor pushed the throttles forward and the plane moved slowly forward and into the hangar. Once inside, the marshaller gave the hand signal to stop the aircraft and then to cut the engines.

  “Run through the shutdown
checklist,” directed Taylor. Stevens already had it on the screen and read off the steps out loud. Taylor cut off the throttles and the engines slowly spooled down as the ground crewman plugged his headset into the plane’s intercom. We’re closing the hangar doors, please keep the APU off,” the marshaller requested.

  “Roger, will do,” responded Stevens, as he completed the checklist.

  This was not Taylor’s first trip to the USAF’s Groom Lake Test facility. He had gotten the call to haul the two heavily modified UH-60 stealth Blackhawk helicopters from Groom Lake to Afghanistan to be used in the Osama bin Laden raid. The helicopters had been modified and test flown here and the crews trained here, as well.

  Now Taylor and his crew were going to haul even more high-tech weapons.

  Taylor, his co-pilot and the loadmaster, exited the aircraft using the side stairs and were greeted by Lt. Colonel Rob Jenkins of Detachment Three of the Edwards AFB Flight Test Center. Detachment Three has operational responsibility for the U.S. Air Force Test Center as the desert facility is officially designated.

 

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