Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest

by Sandi Doughton

  For information about the Nisqually earthquake:

  Sorensen, Eric, “Shaken, but OK,” The Seattle Times, March 1, 2001.

  Jamieson, Robert L “6.8 Shocker,” The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, March 1, 2001.

  Cat Le, Phuong, “Mud engulfs home, dams river,” The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, March 1, 2001.

  Anderson, Ross, “The tower is collapsing!,” The Seattle Times, March 3, 2001.

  Ostrom, Carol and David Postman, “Why it’s called the miracle quake,” The Seattle Times, March 4, 2001.

  Scott, Alwyn and Monico Soto, “How high-tech giants fared,” The Seattle Times, March 4, 2001.

  Sitt, Pam, “What readers told us about quake experiences,” The Seattle Times, March 18, 2001.

  Norris, Bob, “Narrative of strong ground shaking and liquefaction on Harbor Island during the Nisqually earthquake.” USGS Nisqually earthquake information page, August 2012, http://www.ess.washington.edu/USGS/DOCS/quakestory.html.

  Staff of the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network. “Preliminary report on the Mw=6.8 Nisqually, Washington earthquake of 28 February 2001.” Seismological Research Letters, 72 (2001): 352-61.

  Filiatrault, Andre, et al. “Reconnaissance report of the February 28, 2001 Nisqually (Seattle-Olympia) earthquake.” University of California Structural Systems Research Project Report. 2001.

  Frankel, Arthur D, David L. Carver and Robert A. Williams. “Nonlinear and linear site response and basin effects in Seattle for the M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92 (2002): 2090-109.

  Montgomery, David R., Harvey M. Greenberg and Daniel T. Smith. “Streamflow response to the Nisqually earthquake.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 209 (2003): 19-28.

  Gilmore, Susan, “Big outpouring helped our region rebuild; Nisqually earthquake: 5 years later,” The Seattle Times, Feb. 28, 2006.

  Creager, Ken, Steve Kirby, and Cliff Frohlich, conversations with author.

  For background on deep earthquakes: Frohlich, Cliff. “Kiyoo Wadati and early research on deep focus earthquakes: Introduction to special section on deep and intermediate focus earthquakes.” Journal of Geophysical Research. 92 (1987): 13,777-88.

  Frohlich, Cliff. “Deep Earthquakes.” Scientific American. 1989.

  Frohlich, Cliff. “The nature of deep-focus earthquakes.” Annual Review, Earth and Planetary Science. 17 (1989): 227-54.

  Kirby, Stephen H, Emile A. Okal and E. Robert Engdahl. “The 9 June 94 Bolivian deep earthquake: An exceptional event in an extraordinary subduction zone.” Geophysical Research Letters, 22 (1995): 2233-6.

  Kirby, Stephen, Kelin Wang and Susan Dunlop, editors. “Seismic structure, intraslab earthquakes and processes and earthquake hazards.” The Cascadia Subduction Zone and Related Subduction Systems. USGS Open-file report 02-328, 2002.

  Preston, Leiph A., et al. “Intraslab earthquakes: dehydration of the Cascadia slab.” Science 302 (2003): 1197-200.

  Frohlich, Cliff. Deep Earthquakes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

  Davis, Carol, conversation with author.

  For information about the 1949 and 1965 Puget Sound earthquakes: “Earthquake listed as major; 5 dead; damage in millions,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 13, 1949.

  “Quake-loosened cliff plunges into sound near Tacoma,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 16, 1949.

  “Waltz with death atop Narrows Bridge,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 14, 1949.

  “Quake laid to shift in Olympics fault,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 14, 1949.

  “Quake hits Seattle: City lists 2 dead; Damage widespread, mostly minor,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 29, 1965.

  “Epicenter of earthquake set in Mason County,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 29, 1965.

  “Earthquake damage in state estimated at $12.4 million,” The Seattle Daily Times, April 30, 1965.

  Lange, Greg, “Earthquake hits Puget Sound area on April 13, 1949.” HistoryLink.org, http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?displaypage=output.cfm&file_id=2063, January 2013.

  Lange, Greg, “Earthquake rattles Western Washington on April 29, 1965,” HistoryLink.org, http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?Display-Page=output.cfm&file_id=1986, January 2013.

  CHAPTER 9: RUN FOR YOUR LIFE

  Okawa, Kamaishi, Lori Dengler, and Megumi Sugimoto, conversations with author.

  For news accounts of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami:

  The Yomiuri Shimbun. “Terrifying moments before tsunami revealed,” Daily Yomiuri Online, August 24, 2011, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110823005568.htm, October 2012.

  Gilhooly, Rob. “Parents unable to let go, continue search for missing kids,” Japan Times Online, October 13, 2011, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20111013f1.html, October 2012.

  Kenyon, Paul. “Japan Tsunami: The Survivors’ Stories.” BBC News Panorama Documentary video. 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU1dLut-dRAM, October 2012.

  “Miracles of Kamaishi as a result of following ‘Three principles of evacuation’.” MSN Sankei News video. April 13, 2011. http://www.seedsasia.org/eng/projects-japan.html, January 2013.

  Harding, Donald & Ben. “Tendenko: Surviving the Tsunami.” Witness, Al Jazeera English video, 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wymX-0J4G8r8, October 2012.

  Harding, Donald & Ben. “Tsunami Survival Strategy Interview with Prof. Katada.” Al Jazeera English, 2011. http://vimeo.com/31601481, October 2012.

  Gilhooly, Rob. “Time has stopped for parents of dead and missing children,” Japan Times Online, March 11, 2012, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120311f3.html, October 2012.

  Corcoran, Patrick, Stephanie Fritts, Eddie Bernard, Vasily Titoy, Lori Dengler, Tim Walsh, Bob Freitag, Rob Witter, and Harvey Kelsey, conversations with author.

  For descriptions of the Cape Mendocino, California earthquake of 1992:

  USGS. “Cape Mendocino, California Earthquakes of 1992,” USGS, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1992_04_25_26.php, January 2013.

  Feldman, Paul and Jennifer Warren, “6.9 quake rocks N. California Coast” Los Angeles Times, April 26, 1992.

  “Earthquake Notebook,” Orange County Register, April 26, 1992.

  Reinhold, Robert. “Amid quake’s aftershocks, affirmations in California,” The New York Times, April 27, 1992.,

  Oppenheimer, D., et al. “The Cape Mendocino, California, earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the triple junction.” Science 261 (1993): 433-8.

  Thompson, Jerry. “Shockwave: Surviving North America’s Biggest Disaster,” Omni Films and CBC, 2009, http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/doczone/2009/shockwave/, January 2013.

  Priest, George R., et al. “Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” Natural Hazards 54 (2010): 27-73.

  Imamura, Fumihiko and Suppasr Anawat. “Damage due to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami and its lessons for future mitigation.” Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, March 2012, Tokyo, Japan.

  Wood, Nathan and Christopher Soulard. “Variations in community exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington.” USGS Scientific Investigations Report, 2008.

  Wood, Nathan. “Variations in city exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards in Oregon.” USGS Scientific Investigations Report, 2007.

  Project Safe Haven: Vertical Evacuation on the Washington Coast, https://catalyst.uw.edu/workspace/wiserjc/19587/116498, January 2013.

  CHAPTER 10: IT’S OUR JOB

  Weaver, Craig, Allan Lindh, Ivan Wong, David Applegate, Tom Pratty, Ralph Haugerud, Steve Malone, and Susan Hough, conversations with author.

  Stegner, Wallace. Beyond the Hundredth Meridian: John Wesley Powell and the Second Opening of the American West. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1953.


  Stegner, Wallace. Angle of Repose. New York: Doubleday, 1971.

  Rabbitt, M.C. 1989. “The United States Geological Survey: 1879-1989,” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1050, 1989, http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1050/index.htm, January 2013.

  Wallace, Robert E., and Stanley Scott. “Earthquakes, minerals and me: With the USGS, 1942-1995.” USGS Open File Report, 1996.

  Gohn, Kathleen K., “Celebrating 125 Years of the U.S. Geological Survey,” Circular 1274, USGS, 2004, http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/1274/, January 2013.

  Ulin, David L. The Myth of Solid Ground: Earthquakes, Prediction and the Fault Line Between Reason and Faith. New York: Penguin Books, 2004.

  “125 Years of Topographic Mapping,” USGS, http://nationalmap.gov/ustopo/history.html, January 2013.

  Wang, Kelin, et al. “Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96 (2006): 757-95.

  Hough, Susan. Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010.

  For information on seismic hazard mapping:

  Frankel, Art, Tom Heaton, Seth Stein, Max Wyss, and James Bela, conversations with author.

  “United States National Seismic Hazard Maps,” USGS, http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3017/pdf/FS08-3017_508.pdf.

  Stein, Seth. “Code Red: Earthquake Imminent? Understanding Earthquake Hazard Maps.” Earth Magazine. January 2009.

  Stein, Seth, Robert Geller and Mian Liu. “Bad assumptions or bad luck: Why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing.” Seismological Research Letters, 82 (2011): 623-6.

  Kerr, Richard. “Seismic crystal ball proving mostly cloudy around the world.” Science, 332 (2011): 912-3.

  Lay, Thorne. “Why giant earthquakes keep catching us out.” Nature, 483 (2012): 149-50.

  Achenbach, Joel, “Unexpected quakes shake geologists’ faith,” The Washington Post, March 10, 2012.

  Achenbach, Joel, “Disaster struck, but not where it was expected,” The Washington Post, March 12, 2012.

  Stirling, Mark W. “Earthquake hazard maps and objective testing: The hazard mapper’s point of view.” Seismological Research Letters, 83 (2012): 321-2.

  Wyss, Max, Anastasia Nekrasova and Vladimir Kossobokov. “Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates.” Natural Hazards, 62 (2012): 927-35.

  Stein, Seth, Robert J. Geller and Mian Liu. “Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it.” Tectonophysic, 562-563 (2012): 1-25.

  CHAPTER 11: SHAKE, RATTLE—PORTLAND, VANCOUVER, SEATTLE

  “Alaskan Way Viaduct-Earthquake Simulation, Washington State Department of Transportation, YouTube, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIK wC-c, January 2013.

  For information on how buildings and other structures in the NW are likely to perform in future earthquakes:

  Yanev, Peter, Tom Heaton, John Hooper, Perry Adebar, Kit Miyamoto, Cale Ash, Carl Barker, and Yumei Wang, conversations with author.

  Wang, Yumei and J.L. Clark, “Earthquake damage in Oregon: Preliminary estimates of future earthquake losses,” Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, 1999, http://oregongeology.com/sub/earthquakes/SP29SUMMARY.pdf, January 2013.

  Heaton, Thomas H. “Will performance-based earthquake engineering break the power law?” Seismological Research Letters, 78 (2007): 2.

  Lewis, Don. “Statewide seismic needs assessment: Implementation of Oregon 2005 Senate Bill 2 relating to earthquakes and seismic rehabilitation of public buildings,” Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, 2007m http://www.oregongeology.com/sub/projects/rvs/ OFR-O-07-02-SNAA-onscreen.pdf, January 2013.

  Cheek, Lawrence. “Architectural bummers: These local designs are simply dispiriting,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Sept. 25, 2007.

  Anagnos, T. et al. “Los Angeles inventory of nonductile concrete buildings for analysis of seismic collapse risk hazards.” The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, October, 2008, Beijing, China.

  Heaton, Tom and Jing Yang, “Simulated deformations of Seattle high-rise buildings from a hypothetical giant Cascadia earthquake,” Seismological Society of America, 2009, http://heaton.caltech.edu/, January 2013.

  Yang, Jing. “Nonlinear response of high-rise buildings in giant subduction earthquakes.” PhD diss., California Institute of Technology, 2009, http://www.thesis.library.caltech.edu/1298, October 2012.

  “Seismic Vulnerability of Oregon State Highway Bridges,” Oregon Department of Transportation, 2009, http://www.ftp.odot.state.or.us/Bridge/bridge_website_chittirat/2009_Seismic_Vulnerability_final.pdf, January 2012.

  Yanev, Peter “Shake, Rattle, Seattle,” The New York Times, March 28, 2010.

  “Earthquake preparedness: Activities completed and future efforts,” City of Seattle, 2010, Available: http://www.seattle.gov/emergency/docs/CityofSeattleEarthquakePreparedness ActivitiesCompletedandFutureEffortsJune2010v2.pdf, January 2013.

  Adebar, Perry, “Earthquake alert: How safe are the high-rise buildings in B.C.?,” The Vancouver Sun, Feb. 5, 2011.

  “Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response,” American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team, USGS, 2011, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1053, January 2013.

  Jones, Lucy, “Lessons for the next big one,” Los Angeles Times, April 8, 2011.

  Adebar, P. and A. Lorzadeh. “Compression failure of thin concrete walls.” 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Spain. 2012.

  Wang, Yumei, Steven F. Bartlett and Scott B. Miles. “Earthquake risk study for Oregon’s critical energy infrastructure hub: Final report to Oregon Department of Energy & Oregon Public Utility Commission.” Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, 2012.

  Mahin, Stephen A., “Lessons from steel buildings damaged by the Northridge earthquake,” National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering, http://nisee.berkeley.edu/northridge/mahin.html, January 2012.

  “Washington State’s Bridge Seismic Retrofit Program,” WSDOT, www.wsdot.wa.gov/eesc/bridge/preservation/pdf%5CBrgSeismicPaper.pdf, January 2013.

  For information on the construction of sports stadiums and the Space Needle:

  Hooper, John, Martin Page, and Gary Noble Curtis, conversations with author.

  Gurtowski, Thomas M. “Finding a firm footing.” Daily Journal of Commerce, June 17, 1999.

  Magnusson, Jon D. “Soft soil makes for tough design.” Daily Journal of Commerce, June 27, 2002.

  Page, Martin. “Driven piles make stadium strong.” Daily Journal of Commerce, June 27, 2002.

  Murray, Morgan. Century 21: The Story of the Seattle World’s Fair, 1962, Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1963.

  Spector, Robert. The Space Needle: Symbol of Seattle. Seattle: Documentary Media LLC., 2006.

  Berger, Knute. Space Needle: The Spirit of Seattle. Seattle: Documentary Media LLC., 2012.

  CHAPTER 12: NUTS, BOLTS AND CHIMNEYS

  For information on analyses of chimney damage:

  Booth, Derek, conversation with author.

  Booth, Derek B. et al. “Chimney Damage in the Greater Seattle Area from the Nisqually earthquake of 28 February 2001.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 94, 3 (2004): 1143-58.

  Stephenson, William J. et al. “Toward resolving an earthquake ground motion mystery in west Seattle, Washington State: Shallow seismic focusing may cause anomalous chimney damage.” Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (2006).

  For retrofitting advice:

  Faris, Roger, and Leif Jackson, conversations with author.

  Yanev, Peter I & Andrew C.T. Thompson. Peace of Mind in Earthquake Country: How to Save Your Home, Business, and Life. San Francisco: Chronicle Books 2008..

  For information on earthquake insurance:

  Newman, Karl, conversation with author.

  Hunsberger, Brent, “Earthquake insurance is not a shaky investment,” The Oregonian, March 14, 2010.

  Pender, Kathleen, “New opti
ons for quake insurance,” The San Francisco Chronicle, July 10, 2012.

  Matheny, Keith, “Very few people have earthquake insurance, even in California where the risk is high,” USA Today, Oct. 19, 2011.

  For tips on tsunami survival:

  Atwater, Brian, et al. “Surviving a Tsunami—Lessons from Chile, Hawaii and Japan,” USGS Circular, 2005, http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/, October 2012.

  Tabor, Damon, “A Tsunami Hits the Northwest,” National Geographic Adventure Survive Almost Anything, 2009, http://adventure.nationalgeo-graphic.com/2009/08/survival/tsunami/3, October 2012. Chapter 13: Future Science, Coming Quake

  For information on using GPS to monitor ground motions and the discovery of silent earthquakes:

  Dragert, Herb, Garry Rogers, Tim Melbourne, and John Vidale, conversations with author.

  Dragert, Herb, Kelin Wang and Thomas S. James. “A silent slip event on the deeper Cascadia subduction interface.” Science, 292 (2001): 1525-8.

  Miller, M. Meghan et al. “Periodic slow earthquakes from the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” Science, 295 (2002): 2423.

  Rogers, Garry and Herb Dragert. “Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: The chatter of silent slip.” Science, 300 (2003): 1942-3.

  Hirn, Alfred and Mireille Laigle. “Silent heralds of megathrust earthquakes?” Science, 305 (2004): 1917-8.

  Mazzotti, Stephane and John Adams. “Near-term probability of a great earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94 (2004): 1954.

  Brudzinksi, Michael R. “Do faults shimmy before they shake?” Nature Geoscience, 1 (2008): 295-6.

  Vidale, John E. and Heidi Houston. “Slow slip: A new kind of earthquake.” Physics Today, 2012.

  For seafloor monitoring, drilling and underwater observatories, and precursors to 2011 Tohoku quake: Delaney, John, Kate Moran, William Wilcock, Jeffrey McGuire, Tim Melbourne, and Harold Tobin, conversations with author.

  Delaney, John R. Understanding the planetary life support system: Next generation science in the ocean basins. Unpublished manuscript.

  NEPTUNE Canada, http://www.nep-tunecanada.com, January 2013.

  “The National Science Foundation’s Ocean Observatories Initiative,” Ocean Observatories Initiative, http://www.oceanobservatories.org, January 2013.