The Archimage's Fourth Daughter

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The Archimage's Fourth Daughter Page 42

by Lyndon Hardy


  The experiment data in the histogram agrees pretty well with the theory. Both low and high energies are unlikely, and sure enough, we find that few of our events have such energy extremes.

  Of course, the match is not exact. We are dealing with a finite number of events here. It the theoretical curve says that for, say, 100 events, we expect five at the lower energy limit, we easily might get 7 or 3, because of statistical variations.

  Now suppose we collect some more data, but this time the incoming π- has more energy. The final histogram might look like:

  Wow! Something is going on here. A spike or bump, at one particular value indicates that sometimes we do not have three particles coming out of the reaction, but only two. Where there are only two, the energy of both is fixed.

  At least part of the time, physcists finally decided, the reaction was:

  π- + p -> π- + N*+ and then subsequently N*+ -> π- + n

  This type of example occured a lot in the 1960's. Using the accelerators and detectors of the time, the cozy little family of proton, neutron, and electron were joined by hundreds of other particles, such as the N*+. Toto was not in Kansas anymore.

  But because of the statistics, when do you decide that the data deviates from what is expected? Suppose the creation of N*+'s was not as prevalent as that shown in the first histogram, and instead we get:

  Okay, perhaps still convincing enough. Then how about:

  (Sigmund Freud was misquoted. What he really said was "Sometimes π+ and n is just π+ and n.")

  As more and more physics data were being collected, scientists were moving onto shakier and shakier ground. At the end of the 1800's we saw small bits of debris jiggling in a liquid. The existing of atoms explained that better than anything else.

  Then when we saw the tracks in photographic plates, the existence of particles was also the best explanation.

  When we got to reactions like:

  π-- + p -> π+ + π- + n

  we saw the output π mesons because they were charged. A neutral neutron leaves no track. But we inferred it was there because assuming it was made the output energy equal that of the input. Energy was conserved.

  As accelerators and detectors improved and more and more data were collected, many more histograms were examined. This meant that, by chance, some bumps did not indicate the existence of a new particle at all. They were merely statistical fluctuations instead.

  There is no way to be absolutely sure if this is the case or not, but as a general rule, physicists do not publish a result if the chance of a statistical fluke causing an observation is more than 1 chance in about 3.5 million.

  I have not visited CERN in over fifty years, so I am sure that with the advent of more powerful computers and the increased deluge of data, the search has become more sophisticated with techniques such as maximum likelihood comparison of 'bump' and 'no bump' hypotheses. Looking at histograms has been delegated to the realm of 'quick first looks."

  Even so, part of the craft of experimental particle physics is still one of 'bump hunting' -- looking for those deviations in the data that represented something that reflects reality.

  Fig's bump hunting to prove the existence of the micromites has nothing to do with particle physics, but the fundamental underpinnings are the same.

  1. Make a hypothesis for both a ‘real’ and the 'null' result.

  2. Do an experiment and examine the results

  3. Decide if any 'bumps' were found -- anything that could not be explained by the null hypothesis.

  Imago

  The last stage of four stages of insect development. A synonym for 'adult'

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imago

  Imp

  In Master of the Five Magics and its sequels, smaller demons than djinns and mostly just pranksters.

  Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imp

  Lanchester Square Law

  A formula for estimating the number of victors surviving if two unequal forces combat until the smaller is annihilated. It is given by nfinal = sqrt(nsquared - msquared) where n is the initial number of the larger combatant, m is that of the smaller, and sqrt indicates taking the square root.

  For example if n = 5 and m =3, the number surviving of the original 5 is 4.

  Some military historians claim that Admiral Horatio Nelson's intuitive understanding of the law guided his tactics to defeat the French and Spanish at Trafalgar in 1805.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanchester%27s_laws

  Another reference:

  https://www.futilitycloset.com/2016/03/20/lanchesters-laws

  Lateral arabesque

  Term coined in the early 1960s by Lawrence Peter, author of the Peter Principle, to refer to a change in management position that is not upwards but only to another one at the same level.

  Lawrence Bragg

  Bragg, at the age of 25, was the co-precipitant for the Nobel Prize in physics with his father, William Bragg in 1915 -- a well-deserved recognition, but I can't help but thinking, however, that it might have helped just a tiny bit to have been born to equally brilliant parents.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lawrence_Bragg

  Level Three Trigger

  The number of proton-proton collisions (called events) produced by the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN) is staggering. Most of it is of little interest. A winnowing process is used to pick out those events of interest for more detailed examination.

  Lower level triggers are used to select only a subset of events and perform preliminary computations upon them. Level Three triggers can be tailored to select an even smaller subset -- those for a particular researcher's needs.

  See also the section titled Data Systems and Analysis at:

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATLAS_experiment

  Lost Horizon

  A novel (1933) by James Hilton about a lamasery hidden somewhere "west of Himalaya Mountains" in Asia.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Horizon

  Magic

  The use of means outside of normal availability to affect change. On earth, the terms magic, sorcery, thaumaturgy, and wizardry are roughly synonymous.

  In Master of the Five Magics and its sequels, each, along with alchemy, have distinct meanings. Magic is performed by the exercise of rituals, the steps of which are derived from extensions of rituals deduced previously.

  The goal of these exercises is the production of magical objects, things that are perfect in what they do, such as mirrors, daggers, swords, and shields. Once created, with few exceptions, they last forever.

  The power of magic is limited by the time and expense involved in performing magic rituals. Some take several generations and the involvement of many participants. Because of the time and effort involved, magical objects are quite expensive.

  On earth, the most similar craft is that of a mathematician.

  Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic

  Magic Eightball

  A toy of the 1950's. One asked a question and then shook up the eightball. After a few moments the answer would rise to show in a window at the top of the ball.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_8-Ball

  Mark 50 Torpedo

  A high speed US Navy torpedo for use against deep-diving submarines. It uses sulfur hexafluoride as its propellant.

  Wikipedia:

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_50_torpedo

  Money

  Until there were banks, the amount of money in a country did not change much. Precious metals were mined to add to the supply of coins, but that led to only slow increases. With the advent of banking, however, everything changed.

  Imagine if you were a merchant in ancient times. You were doing well and your gold kept piling up. Everyone could see this, including thieves, so you built a strong vault to keep it in — all 100 ducats of it.

  Your friend, Nebuc
hadnezzar, came by one day and asked for a loan of 100 ducats to buy supplies for his building company. He would pay it all back within a year and give you 10 more ducats for your trouble. Nebi was a straight up guy, and even though building ziggurats was sometimes iffy, he had a reputation of doing what he said he would, so you agreed to the loan.

  But as you started to open the vault, he asked you to stop. He didn't really want to carry the hundred ducats away with him. They were quite heavy, and thieves were about. Instead just leave the cash where it was and give him a cuneiform tablet certifying that he had the hundred ducats. So you did.

  A few days passed and another friend, Daniel, came by. He had heard about the loan to Nebuchadnezzar and wanted one for himself. You were about to say that you no longer had any ducats to lend out, when an idea struck you.

  "You are going to leave the 100 ducats in the vault, just like Nebuchadnessar, right? Not take possession of any of the gold?"

  "You bet. Haven't you heard? There are thieves about."

  And just like that. The role of a bank from merely being a secure place to store money, it started serving another purpose. 100 ducats of money were generated out of absolutely thin air. Merchants would use cuneiform tablets to keep track of transfers from one to another and did not have to lug around the gold. You were able to lend the same 100 ducats out several more times. With so many people (seemingly) flush with cash, business boomed. Everyone was happy. (Of course when the Hittites were threatening to attack, everyone wanted his money back, but that was a different story.)

  This phenomena of money generation from nothing is related to but distinct from the idea of using substitutes such as clay tablets or conch shells or paper to represent money. In modern times, all banks, in the US, anyway, have the requirement to only keep a fraction of what is deposited available for withdrawal at all times — a reserve of approximately 20 percent. That reserve serves as the basis for the generation of an additional four times more additional money out of whole cloth.

  This little tale has nothing to do with Briana's quest to find the exiles, but ever since I learned of the true significance of banks, it has always amazed me that it was true.

  Murdina

  In Briana's native language, Murdina means the Earth. Untranslated to English for this edition in order to avoid confusion at several points in the story,

  The Prisoner of Zenda

  A turn of the 20th century adventure novel (1894) by Anthony Hope.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prisoner_of_Zenda

  Procolon

  Largest country in the continent west of the great ocean.

  Procolon is a feudal society with a structure similar to what was at one time here on earth. With the exception of magician guilds, in exchange for swearing allegiance to the sovereign, lesser lords held sway over their own smaller land holdings. In general, kingdoms were relatively small, like those to the south. Perhaps in part, Procolon achieved its size because of a greater reliance on sorcery to keep apprised of the happenings within its boundaries.

  This structure was basically unstable. A king or queen had to walk a narrow line between wanting too much or allowing too much autonomy. A lord dissatisfied with the demands for service by his liege could assert his independence and rebel.

  PYTHIA and GEANT

  Names of two software simulation packages of Atlas data. With PYTHIA, one could hypothesize a particular reaction, say,

  π-- + p -> π+ + π- + n

  and produce an 'event' that gives specifies the momentum and energies of each of the particles involved.

  Then with GEANT, one can produce the output that the ATLAS suite of detectors would produce for such an event.

  Armed with this, Chalice could substitute actual ATLAS output with the hypothetical one he had constructed.

  See also the section titled Data Systems and Analysis at:

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATLAS_experiment

  Robe

  Practitioners of each of the five magics are distinguished by the capes and robes they wear.

  Thaumaturges wear brown covered with what is on earth the mathematical symbol of similarity.

  Alchemists wear white covered with triangles with a single vertex bottom-most symbolizing the delicate balance between success and failure when performing a formula.

  Magicians wear blue with the palest for a neophyte and the darkest for the master and covered by circular rings symbolizing the perfect mathematical object.

  Sorcerers wear gray covered with the logo of the staring eye symbolizing the ability to see far in time and place and into another’s inner being.

  Wizards wear black covered with wisps of flame symbolizing the portal by which the realm of demons and the realm of men are connected.

  Rock Paper Scissors Strategy

  Surprisingly, at least for me, there are over 700,000 google hits on this search term. Here are two that I liked best.

  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/11051704/How-to-always-win-at-rock-paper-scissors.html

  http://www.wikihow.com/Win-at-Rock,-Paper,-Scissors

  Rule of 72

  A shortcut to estimate how long it would take an investment to double in value at a fixed rate of interest. It is given by 72/n, where n is the interest rate of the investment is held. For example if the rate is 6%, then the investment will double in 12 years.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72

  The Scarlet Pimpernel

  An adventure novel by Baroness Orczy published in 1905. The hero was the secret identity of a wealthy English fop, foreshadowing the advent of Superman by 29 years.

  Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scarlet_Pimpernel

  Sorcery

  The use of means outside of normal availability to affect change. On earth, the terms magic, sorcery, thaumaturgy, and wizardry are roughly synonymous.

  In Master of the Five Magics and its sequels, each, along with alchemy, have distinct meanings. Sorcery is performed by the recitation of charms, the steps of which are revealed from self-enchantment.

  The power of a sorcerer is limited by the fact that each casting takes some of his life force, and eventually he succumbs when he has no more to give.

  On earth, the most similar craft is that of a psychologist.

  Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorcery

  Southern Kingdoms

  Small kingdoms on the isthmus and connecting continent below the kingdom of Procolon. The initial setting for Riddle of the Seven Realms

  Spell

  On earth the terms cantrip, charm, enchantment, glamour, incantation, and spell are synonymous — the performance of an act of magic.

  In Master of the Five Magics and its sequels, except for the word spell itself, each of the others have particular meanings, and the word spell is a generic umbrella for any of them.

  Thaumaturgy — incantation

  Alchemist — formula performance

  Magician — ritual exercise

  Sorcerer — charm recitation

  Wizard — invocation

  Stock Market 128 Swindle

  The method Angus used to select Emmertyn as his stock broker is a twist on a classic scam.

  An initial list of 128 prospects are sent a letter touting a new stock tip service. To prove how strong it is, a prediction is made for how a particular stock will fare in the coming week. 64 of the prospects are told it will go up; the other 64 that it will go down — or in strongly moving markets, some other tip is given. The basic idea is to use events that have a 50/50 chance of going either way.

  After a week passes, half of the predictions will be wrong. These prospects are never contacted again. Another letter is sent to those remaining. 32 are told that another stock will go up and the other 32 that it will go down. Again, the prediction will be correct for one half. Now, interest might pick up a bit. Two correct tips in a row!

  The process continues until only a single pigeon is
left. By now he is convinced that the new tip service is indeed amazing. Seven weeks and not wrong once! The final letter is the solicitation. No more free tips. The next one will cost.

  The pigeon pays and so long as the predictions do come true by chance, he continues to pay for the information. When it no longer works, the swindlers start with a new list of 128.

 

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