Lethal Trajectories

by Michael Conley

  Wang nodded in thoughtful admiration as the chairman continued.

  “China will take its complaint directly to the UN Security Council, because it is the right place to request a security-based resolution like the one we’ll propose. In all likelihood, one or more of the Western powers will oppose it, but not until we’ve had a chance to air it. By doing so, China will be the first to stake out a position that may later be taken to the General Assembly. In this manner, we’ll outflank Japan up front, where it counts most. I’m reminded of that American golf slogan you once told me, ‘drive for show but putt for dough.’ In this case we’ll be doing our putting at the Security Council and driving at the General Assembly.

  “Now, a question for you, Wang: how would you suggest we approach the Americans with our request for UN clarity on UNCLOS and the EEZ definitions we are seeking?”

  Wang, taken aback by the question, raised his eyes to the ceiling as though searching for an answer before responding. “First of all, we’re not likely to get American support for our entire resolution, but we can certainly frame the EEZ part in a context they will understand and, perhaps, support.”

  “Yes, yes, go on, please explain,” Lin Cheng commanded, excitement in his voice.

  “Like us, the United States also has issues with the UN Law of the Seas Charter and EEZ definitions. As you know, climate-change has caused large Arctic ice melts and reductions in ice that once blocked the Northwest Passage. The whole Arctic region has taken on a new importance as a result. With new open-sea shipping routes and access to mineral rights and oil fields previously covered by ice shelves, the United States, among other nations, is attempting to stake out its EEZ territorial claims in the Arctic. Russia even planted an underwater flag to signify its claim, but no one paid any attention to it.”

  Lin Cheng listened intently as Wang pursued his train of thought.

  “China’s proposed definition, using the continental shelf and not a country’s coastal area as the starting point for extending the 200-nautical-mile EEZ boundary, would also be in America’s best interests. Using Alaska’s continental shelf and not its coast as a baseline would certainly extend America’s claim in that area, not to mention the huge advantage such a redefinition would provide across the vast coastal waters of the United States. Our proposal could be crafted to maximize this feature and link American interests with ours.”

  “That’s brilliant, Wang Peng, and an idea we’ll most definitely pursue. In fact, President Burkmeister has invited me to call him on our hotline with any new updates on the Chunxiao matter, which could provide an opportunity to introduce the idea.” Lin Cheng was warming to the possibilities as he thought it out.

  “I like President Burkmeister,” Lin said almost parenthetically. “We’ve had one face-to-face meeting since he took office, and of course our recent phone calls. He seems a pragmatic sort. However, I’ve heard disturbing things about his health, and he’s now in the hospital. This prompts me to ask you about Vice President McCarty—just in case something happens to President Burkmeister. I know you know him from your Stanford days.”

  Wang cleared his throat before answering.

  “Yes, I’ve had several visits with Clayton McCarty over the years, but I’m actually closer to his brother, Jack McCarty—my roommate at Stanford for many years. It’s difficult to talk about one without talking about the other.”

  “That’s fine, Peng, tell me about both of them. I have a feeling they will play a part in our future dealings, and I’d like your assessment of them.”

  “Yes, sir, I am happy to do so. I will say up front that I would certainly vouch for the good character of both men.”

  Lin Cheng seemed taken aback; Wang Peng was cautious about tendering an opinion on anyone. To say this so quickly about anyone, especially two Americans, was indeed rare.

  “I’ve known Jack McCarty the longest, as we were roommates at Stanford for almost my entire time there in the nineties. We remain good friends to this day. We are respectful of each other’s boundaries now, because of our respective proximities to you and the vice president, but we stay in touch via the Internet and whenever our paths cross overseas.”

  “When did you last hear from Jack McCarty?”

  “A few days ago Jack sent me an e-mail regarding recent climate-change information that worried him. Jack now lives in Washington, DC, and is the CEO of a think tank he founded called the Institute of Energy and Environment—IEE for short. He included attachments containing some of the most critical data.

  “What are the climate-change issues that have him so worried?”

  “I’d like to prepare a more detailed report for you, Mr. Chairman, as I’m not sure I can do justice to Jack’s concerns right here and now. I can tell you that Jack is a firm believer in climate-change, and recent satellite information has convinced him we may have reached the so-called tipping point that will make climate-change reversals very difficult. His observations, by the way, are shared by our best scientists at the Shanghai Institute.”

  Lin nodded, fully aware of the effects climate-change was having on China across many fronts. “Please continue; I share his concerns and will want to discuss this with you soon in great detail.”

  “Jack McCarty is a first-rate thinker and does not pull punches when defending his point of view—I can assure you of that from firsthand experience. I have observed these same attributes in his brother, Clayton. We’ve had dozens of lively discussions over the years on anything and everything. Whatever the issue, they both argue their respective positions with precision and force.”

  “Are they close as brothers?” Lin Cheng asked.

  “Jack and Clayton are very close. They’re the only two living members of the McCarty family. Their parents were killed in a private-plane crash in the early nineties.”

  Wang knew he was digressing, but it was important to convey the closeness of the McCarty brothers’ relationship.

  “After receiving his PhD at Stanford in the area of energy and environment, Jack went to Palo Alto to work at Clayton’s start-up company, Advanced Energy Systems or AES. They were pioneers in the design and development of advanced smart-grid energy systems and support devices. Jack worked there as a design engineer and partner until 2009, when AES was acquired by Clayburn Electronics for hundreds of millions of dollars. I can’t remember the exact amount, but it made Jack and Clayton multimillionaires overnight. Jack used some of that money to start his IEE think tank. Since then, I’ve had opportunities to visit with Jack at a number of international meetings on energy and climate.”

  “Please, tell me more about Clayton McCarty,” Lin asked, eager to understand a man who might someday become his counterpart.

  “Clayton McCarty is an interesting man,” Wang replied. “He was also a Stanford grad—class of 1990 or ‘91, I can’t remember … I know, it was 1990, because Clayton joined the Marine Corps after graduation and served as a second lieutenant during the Gulf War in 1991. He left the Marine Corps in the mid-nineties, and was actually stationed on the Stanford campus for some kind of liaison work for the last few months of his hitch. That’s where I first got to know him.”

  “What is he like as a person?”

  “He was a regular visitor at our place, and I liked him from the first time we met. He has a brilliant mind and keen appreciation for the big-picture energy and environmental issues of our time. He’s entrepreneurial and not afraid to take risks. I also had the great pleasure of attending his wedding and have had an opportunity to see both him and his wife, Maggie, on two or three social occasions.”

  “What about his business and political career, Peng?”

  “Clayton made a fortune after going public and selling his company in 2009. He traveled, wrote, taught, and consulted, but from what I could see, he was bitten by the political bug. Americans, as you know, were disenchanted with the gridlock they saw in their two major parties. Clayton must have been one of them, because he was a mover and shaker in building
a new Independence Party in California. They became the alternative party for disenfranchised voters from the two traditional parties.”

  Lin continued to take notes as he listened attentively to Wang.

  “As the oil crisis worsened after 2012 and climate-change issues appeared on voters’ radar screens, the independent movement grew by leaps and bounds in California and across the United States. The two major parties weren’t doing the job, and Clayton became the New Independence Party of California’s nominee in the 2014 gubernatorial race and was elected governor. He immediately embarked on a program to reduce California’s massive deficits and successfully instituted integrated, long-term energy, transportation, and environmental plans that were later adopted by several other states.

  “In 2016 Lyman Burkmeister, a moderate Republican, tapped Clayton to be his running mate, and the rest is history. Jack told me that Burkmeister and Clayton became good friends as fellow governors of large states, and Clayton accepted the job under one condition: he wanted to restructure and consolidate the various federal energy, transportation, and environmental departments into one megadepartment with a full span of controls, similar to that in his California model. Burkmeister not only agreed to his request, he one-upped Clayton by making it a major platform issue. Like Clayton, he was deeply concerned with America’s energy dependencies and thought it might help address the challenge. It also speaks volumes for Burkmeister’s independent streak in getting a man outside his party to run with him—one reason I’m not totally surprised by his position on Chunxiao with regard to Japan.”

  “As you can see by my pages of notes, Peng, your comments on the McCarty brothers have been most interesting. What else can you tell me about Clayton McCarty? How does he think?”

  “Clayton McCarty is not the usual type of politician. He’s not taken in by the hype that goes with the office. In some respects, I see similarities in the ways that both of you view the world and approach its challenges. He looks first at the big picture and endgame he wants—at least that’s how I remember his approach in the discussions we used to have. He’s not afraid to go against the grain and is a man of personal courage, as evidenced by the medals he won as a combat officer in the Gulf War. He’s usually calm and dispassionate, though I’ve seen him riled by what he viewed as incompetence.

  “He has an intense dislike for short-term, bureaucratic thinking, and my guess is he’s probably a little frustrated in his vice-presidential job, as he’s used to leading and not following.”

  “Thank you for your observations, Peng,” Lin said. “You’ve given me a good insight on what makes Clayton McCarty tick, and who knows, it might come in handy someday.”

  Lin looked down at his notes for a couple of minutes, and Wang could sense he had something else to say.

  “Peng, I’d like you to consider accompanying Prime Minister Chen Shenglin on his upcoming trip to the United Nations in New York toward the end of September. Perhaps when you are there, you could re-establish your contact with Jack McCarty. If President Burkmeister is indeed ill, it is possible that Clayton McCarty’s role will be enhanced. If this is the case, it wouldn’t hurt for you to stay close to the McCartys. Would you be able to make that trip, comrade?”

  Wang knew this was not a request. It all made sense now. Lin Cheng was a shrewd observer of people, and sensing there might be a change of command in America, he wanted to get a better handle on what he was up against. It made perfect sense.

  “Of course, Mr. Chairman, I will do anything you ask.”

  As he agreed, he was torn by the idea of crossing a boundary in his relationship with Jack McCarty. They had always managed to maintain their friendship by keeping political agendas out of the picture, and the thought of doing otherwise now was troublesome.

  He said good-bye to Lin Cheng after advising him he would call to set up a “casual” visit with Jack McCarty.

  12

  IEE Headquarters, Georgetown

  17 September 2017

  Although it was a Sunday, Jack McCarty and his team of IEE scientists spent the better part of the day poring over the raw diagnostic data delivered by the recently launched climate-change satellites. An air of tension and gloom hung over the room, for their worst fears were being systematically confirmed.

  IEE had been heavily involved in designing the diagnostic software used in the climate satellites now beaming down their distressing signals. The project mission, sponsored by the International Earth Information Agency, was to assess the true state of Earth’s health and provide corroborative data for developing international climate-change policies.

  They were horrified to find that Earth was far sicker than anyone had previously imagined. They also confirmed that the dreaded tipping point had been reached and crossed. For the first time ever, they could see how an array of negative feedback loops was overwhelming Earth’s fragile immune system—and with it Earth’s ability to automatically adjust and recalibrate to new atmospheric threats. Like a sick child with fever, Earth’s ability to counteract the fever diminished as it got sicker; and as it got sicker, the fever rose in a vicious, self-perpetuating cycle. The prognosis was bleak.

  After breaking for the night at almost eleven o’clock, Jack and his friend Peter Canton, the new Secretary of the Department of Energy, Transportation, and Climate-change, sat down, exhausted, for a cup of coffee.

  “What do you think, Pete? When should we go public with this information?”

  “It’s frightening, Jack, and it’ll have to be documented, corroborated, and disseminated by the IEIA. But once unveiled, it will be like telling a person who seems perfectly healthy that they have terminal cancer.”

  “You’re right about that. I bounced some preliminary stuff off Clayton and even mentioned it to Wang Peng—you remember him, you met at a couple of conferences? His people in China are also coming to the same conclusions.”

  Chagrined, Peter asked, “What could we have been thinking? How could we ever have let the climate trajectories get so out of hand that tipping points would be reached?”

  Jack sipped his coffee slowly and looked despondently at the wall for an answer.

  “The signals were all there. We had the data, and the last two IPCC reports made it abundantly clear that climate-change was anthropogenic and escalating. But the lobbyists and their backers got people to believe that the ‘data wasn’t all in yet,’ and we shouldn’t rush to conclusions. Same stall tactics as the tobacco industry used so effectively to forestall tobacco warnings for years.”

  “I agree,” Peter said, rubbing his bloodshot eyes. “I remember how disheartened the climate science community was after Copenhagen in 2009. They were pounded for practicing ‘junk science,’ and climate-change was labeled a hoax. To their credit, they learned from it and made a real effort thereafter to take on the naysayers and make their scientific processes more transparent. You could see the pendulum start to swing—after all, we got funding for the satellites we’re listening to now—but by then it was too little and too late.”

  “Do you think we could’ve made a difference, Peter, if we’d gotten on it sooner?”

  Peter had spent many sleepless nights wondering about this very same thing. He took his time before answering.

  “My answer is yes and who knows? Yes, we most definitely would have had a better chance of mitigating climate-change had we not wasted all those years, but who knows if we could have totally prevented it? All I know is we would’ve been far better off if we’d taken the IPCC seriously back at the turn of the century. The irony is that with the Chunxiao thing in full bloom and the president in the hospital, our observations tonight, if known, might only make the second page.”

  “Sad but true,” Jack replied with a note of dejection in his voice. “Energy and the environment are integrally related, and you can’t tackle one without addressing the other. In medical terminology, I suppose you’d call energy the acute problem and climate-change the chronic illness, but over time it’ll
be the climate issue that’s most likely to do us in and not energy.”

  They quietly left the building and walked to their cars. Looking up at the cloudless sky, Peter observed, “It’s funny, Jack, you look up at the stars on this perfect night and wonder what could ever be wrong with the good planet Earth, and then you wonder if people will believe us when we tell them the news.

  Washington, DC

  18 September 2017

  Peter Canton looked out the window of his office in the Forrestal Building at the morning traffic on Independence Avenue. Jittery from an overdose of coffee to overcome his sleepless night, he was haunted by the climate discoveries he had confirmed last night with Jack McCarty. He was more convinced than ever of the need to quickly launch the ETCC department and perplexed by the push-back he was getting from Senator Tom Collingsworth and associates on its development.

  But despite the powerful people opposing him, he was comforted to have the McCarty brothers on his side. His company, Clayburn Electronics, had acquired McCarty’s company in 2009. Then a fifty-six-year-old MIT graduate and CEO of a Fortune 500 company, he was a burnout candidate when Governor-elect McCarty asked him to head up a new energy and transportation department in California—a challenge he had gladly accepted at a salary of one dollar per year. It was déjà vu when he came to Washington, at McCarty’s request, to create a federalized version of the California model.

  He was pleased when his secretary interrupted his reverie to tell him Clayton McCarty was on the phone.

  “Good morning, Mr. Vice President,” Peter said, in deference to the position his friend held.

  “Oh, c’mon, Peter, will you knock off that ‘Mr. Vice President’ crap and just call me Clayton like you always have? You’ve come to my rescue so many times I should be calling you ‘Mr. Secretary,'” he said with a laugh.

  Peter chuckled and said, “Thanks, boss. What’s up?”

  “Well first of all, let me apologize again for canceling our meeting the other day. As you can imagine, the Chunxiao Incident has consumed us all, and we’ve put a number of things on hold until we could get it stabilized.”