Lethal Trajectories

by Michael Conley

  Conclusions:

  We may expect a global economic meltdown of catastrophic proportions to occur within the next 5-6 months unless a solution is found for the Saudi oil embargo. Until then, conditions will worsen with each passing day, and with them the danger of conflicts on a local, regional, and international scale will increase. Once the SPR reserves of major powers are used up and the full economic brunt of the embargo felt, the possibility of an international conflagration will increase exponentially.

  A detailed summary of the continuum of approaches follows the Executive Summary. All options carry a set of advantages and disadvantages that policymakers must weigh. In doing so, one fundamental question arises that will undoubtedly impact the option and direction selected:

  Can the two world superpowers, China and the United States, faced with a threat exceeding their capacity to resolve unilaterally, set aside their differences and work collaboratively to defeat a common enemy?

  End of Executive Summary

  Clayton set aside the remainder of the report. As far as he was concerned, the entire meeting here at Camp David revolved around the closing question in the CIA report—a question that he had asked them to insert. Without advocating an approach, the CIA report made a compelling case for collaboration; one of the reasons he was anxious to send a copy to Lin Cheng and Wang Peng.

  How would they interpret the report? he wondered. The idea of pitching new austerity measures to an already pinched America was also troubling. Few people had any idea of the magnitude of the problem about to broadside the country—and he was going to be at the helm when it hit. He turned as he heard a knocking on the door.

  “Yes?” he said. The door opened.

  “Hey Clayton, it’s Jack. Their helicopter just arrived, and we should be ready to crank up the meeting in about a half hour.”

  33

  Royal Palace, Riyadh

  30 September 2017

  King Mustafa’s euphoria was tinged with anxiety as he awaited his new high command in his temporary headquarters in the royal palace. He looked around at the bullet holes pocking the walls and felt eager to get the reconstruction work underway. For many reasons, he thought it important to maintain residence here as a sign of continuity in the new regime.

  He greeted each person politely as they arrived and opened their 10:00 a.m. meeting by praising Allah, giving thanks for the successful coup and the greater global jihad that would soon commence.

  “My brothers,” Mustafa said with pride, “I congratulate you on your heroic efforts. In three days you have restored our country to one that honors Allah and His teachings. Within days you will further cleanse it of all infidels that have corrupted it in the past.”

  “Allahu Akbar!” said Mullah Mohammed al-Hazari, “and thanks to you, King Mustafa, for your leadership in this most holy effort.” The others, not wanting to be upstaged, quickly joined in their effusive praise. The coup is over; it is now time to jockey for position, Mustafa thought, amused by the new power paradigm unfolding before him.

  “We have much to discuss, my brothers, and I would like to start now,” said King Mustafa. This time no one interrupted him—not even Ali Bawarzi, who had a knack for incessant and inane questions.

  “The good news first,” Mustafa continued. “We were successful—almost beyond belief—in completing our glorious mission ahead of schedule. Through your planning and courage we were able to take out the corrupt royal government and their infidel lackeys before our twenty-four-hour timetable had passed. Our broadcasts to the world were successful; the Five Demands were issued and our demonstration atomic bomb was detonated—thanks to the superb efforts of General Ali Jabar and his Royal Air Force scientists.” The general practically glowed at this praise.

  “On the other hand,” Mustafa continued, “there were things that could have gone better. I was deeply disappointed to learn that Prince Khalid ibn Saud left the country with his family and entourage shortly before our campaign. He is a powerful man with close ties to the West, and he could be a formidable force should he choose to set up a government in exile supported by the West.”

  Prince Hahad ibn Saud winced noticeably at Mustafa’s disappointment. It had been his job to take out the royal family. Unfortunately, Prince Khalid and his entourage left for an OPEC meeting and vacation in Switzerland only hours before the coup was launched, and there was absolutely nothing he could do about it.

  “I also hoped more countries would have severed their ties with Israel following my first broadcast, but the fifteen we have are at least a good start. Our operatives are working with Hamas to launch a major uprising in the West Bank, and their actions will undoubtedly unite other loyal Arab nations against the Zionist infidels. I’m sure Hezbollah will soon become active—not wanting to be upstaged by Hamas—and this is good.”

  Mustafa delighted in thinking about the pincer attack against Israel from both movements, and how difficult it would be for the Zionists to defend against these multiple threats. Serves them right, he thought.

  “China and the United States have remained strangely silent,” he continued, “with the exception of the Americans’ feeble warning that we should abstain from attacking Israel. The Israeli government, of course, is engaging in their usual saber rattling by sending their fighter-bomber sorties close to our borders, but it is all show.

  “If you will indulge me,” King Mustafa continued with feigned deference and unquestioned authority, “I would like to review with you what is next on our agenda: First, I will broadcast a message today to our OPEC partners and nations buying oil from them, advising them of our expectations.

  “Second, I would like you, Prince Bawarzi, as commander in chief of the Army, to amass forces on the borders of Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE as quickly as possible. I want you, General Ali Jabar, to fly as many daily sorties as you can muster near these adjacent borders, and a cruise-missile demonstration would not be a bad idea. I’ll soon be talking with Kuwait, QATAR, the UAE, and even Yemen about a formal partnership, and I want them to be very aware of what could happen if they decline.

  “Third, I would most respectfully ask you, Mohammed al-Hazari, to aggressively cleanse our society of its evil ways and once again restore it to a land that is pleasing to Allah.” He could see the delight in the face of al-Hazari.

  “Fourth, General Ali Jabar and Prince Bawarzi, prepare your list of oil choke points and proposals to take them out by force, if need be. If memory serves, about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz and another 15 percent or so flows by the Strait of Malacca. I’m not saying we want to attack these areas and make them inoperative, but I want it known that this is one of many trump cards we hold.

  “Fifth, to the greatest possible extent, I want your staffs to finalize plans for keeping Iran and Iraq out of the act. Together, they produce almost as much oil daily as us, and I don’t want to see them act together as a counterbalancing force in OPEC. Please have the plans on my desk by next week.

  “Last, we don’t know how the infidels will react to our Five Demands. I doubt we have much to fear from an outright military attack, as they know we can make the oil fields they so covet a radioactive wasteland, but we must be prepared for all contingencies. We must keep them off balance. My greatest concern is that they’ll unite against us and possibly support a government in exile under Prince Khalid. Ideally, we’ll be able to drive a wedge between China and the Western powers and reduce any chance of them rallying together against us. It is also imperative we eliminate Prince Khalid once and for all.”

  Mustafa took a swig of water from his nearby bottle and opened the meeting for discussion. His plans were respectfully debated but not challenged. Prince Bawarzi then asked possibly the most pointed question of his career.

  “King Mustafa, how long can we hold out before we must once again sell our oil in the open market?”

  “An excellent question, Prince Bawarzi, and one we must all conside
r. To a large extent, the world’s reaction to our Five Demands will dictate the speed at which we release oil for sale. Getting our OPEC partners to limit their oil exports will also be important. Realistically, we wouldn’t want to withhold our oil for more than a month. It is, after all, our largest source of revenue, and we can’t carry on indefinitely without it. On the other hand, higher oil prices mean we can get by with scaled-back sales.” They smiled and nodded in cautious agreement.

  Mustafa checked his watch. “My brothers, I must now make our next broadcast. On the matter of our oil sales, I expect that we will reevaluate our plan soon, as our enemies begin to grovel for the oil they require.”

  As the radio crew brought their equipment into the room, the high command settled back into their chairs. No one mentioned that the king had felt no need to have them review this message ahead of time. Mustafa watched as the radio tech counted down three … two … one … and motioned for him to begin.

  “My fellow partners in OPEC, and citizens of the world, this is King Mustafa ibn Abdul-Aziz speaking to you from the royal palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

  “We have recently beaten down a bloody insurrection launched by Zionists and American-sponsored forces to overthrow the sovereign government of Saudi Arabia. While I am pleased to report the infidels were defeated and are being brought to justice, the battle was won at a heavy price.

  “For almost seventy years, Arab and other nations now constituting the OPEC partnership have been subjected to exploitation by the Western powers and others. We have experienced their aggression in the two Gulf Wars and in Venezuela, Africa, and Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia. We have watched them dishonor our culture and religion. We have experienced the repressive boot of their unwanted intrusions into our country. We have witnessed their ongoing support of the Zionists in their merciless occupation of the Palestinian homeland. Sadly, we have seen them exploit our precious oil resources to support their decadent lifestyles while disregarding our ways and our culture.

  “While we are peace-loving people, my brothers, our patience is not unlimited. We can no longer suffer this oppression, and today we say to those who exploit us, ‘Enough, your days are over.’

  “Saudi Arabia produces almost 20 percent of the world’s oil, and together, my brothers in OPEC, we account for over 50 percent of all oil produced. We can live without the infidels, but they cannot live without us. We will begin our resistance by establishing a new order in the marketplace.

  “We outlined the principles of this new order in our broadcast two days ago in the form of our Five Demands. I will not take the time now to repeat them, but I will say this: we will closely monitor the actions of all OPEC nations and the countries they supply. We have long memories and do not forget our friends; nor do we forget our enemies or those who would fail to support us at this pivotal point in history.

  “We have just three things to ask of our OPEC partners. First, we ask that you honor our request to temporarily withhold all oil shipments until we can put an end—once and for all—to the petrodollar transactional system that has so benefited the American imperialists to the detriment of all other nations.

  “Second, we ask that you make no special side deals with the satanic Western powers or users of our oil from all Pacific Rim countries. Such pandering dilutes the integrity and bargaining power of OPEC. Certainly, we will remember those OPEC partners and importing countries that honor this request, but woe to those that don’t.

  “Last, we remind you of our request that you sever all diplomatic relationships with the Zionists in support of our repressed brothers in Palestine and the greater Middle East.

  “We offer you a new tomorrow in our alliance for world peace. We offer you a better world where your culture and religion will be respected and cherished, not dishonored. We offer you a permanent end to the colonial exploitation you have so long suffered. And last, we offer you a new prosperity and your rightful place in the world.

  “While the choice we offer between good and evil may seem obvious, it is, nevertheless, a choice you must make. Saudi Arabia could threaten you with military actions or economic sanctions, but that is not our way. Instead, we are brothers in a common cause with common enemies, and that is all the motivation we, as fellow OPEC partners need.

  “We thank all of you for your friendship, support, and partnership in this new world order. Allahu Akbar!”

  As the high command applauded and shouted, vowing their renewed allegiance, Mustafa all but dismissed his earlier reservations. Still, he wasn’t entirely sure of how OPEC members and oil importers like China would react to his message. Pushing his nagging concerns to the back of his mind, he stood up to receive the praise of his dedicated brotherhood.

  34

  Camp David

  30 September 2017

  Lin Cheng awoke at Camp David feeling refreshed despite his fitful night’s sleep. After getting his bearings, he began his morning ritual of stretching and deep breathing exercises. The increased flow of oxygen to his brain supercharged his energy level and gave him greater clarity of mind.

  His thoughts turned to yesterday’s discussions with delegates from three Pacific Rim countries. While the Chinese delegation had fielded many questions about Chunxiao, the incident had clearly been relegated to secondary status as the implications of the Saudi situation started to sink in—a feeling reinforced by briefings from his own intelligence forces. He was grateful for the positive tone of the conference call with his nine-member Politburo Standing Committee. Their support was crucial, given the consensus nature of his government, and they had been receptive to the idea of his meeting at Camp David—more open to it, anyway, than they had been when he first proposed it. They offered their words of caution, but it seemed they were more preoccupied with Chunxiao than with the far greater threat of the Saudi crisis. After leaving their last meeting of the day, he and Wang Peng made a surreptitious departure from their hotel to a nearby helipad and boarded an unmarked helicopter bound for their secret rendezvous.

  Upon last night’s arrival they had enjoyed a relaxed three-hour meeting with the McCarty brothers. Lin appreciated their efforts to establish a relationship before getting down to business—something that Americans often failed to do—and he was actually eager for today’s meeting. Still, he knew better than to get carried away over gut feelings. An objective analysis was always best, and for that reason he had arranged to take his morning walk with Wang Peng. He jumped out of the shower, dried off, dressed briskly, and then walked out to the front door.

  “Good morning, Mr. Chairman,” came the familiar voice of Wang Peng. “I hope you were able to get a good night’s sleep.”

  “Good morning to you, Peng, and I slept quite well—thank you for asking.”

  The heavy morning mist was refreshing as they set out for their walk along the lighted pathways. Wang almost always waited for his boss to start the conversation, but this morning he asked almost immediately, “What were your impressions of last night’s meeting with the McCartys, Mr. Chairman?”

  “I liked them both, Peng. Unlike so many American diplomats we’ve met—even members of our own Politburo, for that matter—they projected an honesty and directness that I found refreshing. They were candid in answering our questions, and they weren’t afraid to challenge me when my answers needed clarification. I appreciated Clayton’s assessment of the American political scene as well as the challenges he faced before being sworn in as president. He didn’t have to tell us that, but it made me more comfortable being candid with him.”

  Wang replied, “I have always found both of them to be a breath of fresh air; they were always less concerned about what I wanted to hear and more interested in telling me what I should hear. It has made for many interesting discussions over the years.”

  They continued their walk in silence for a while before Wang asked, “What was your impression of the CIA report last night?”

  “Overall,” Lin responded, “I th
ink it was an accurate report, at least as far as I can see. I’m not entirely certain why we were given a copy; could it have been written for our consumption only? I don’t trust the CIA, but I must admit their facts and conclusions seemed to be on target.” Lin thought for a moment before continuing.

  “The central proposition,” Lin continued in his no-nonsense voice, “seems to be whether or not we should work in collaboration or go our separate ways on the Saudi oil crisis. I have mixed feelings about a collaborative approach with the Americans, based on past experiences, and I would obviously have a hard time selling such an idea to our Politburo. I also think we’re in a much better position than the United States and its allies to go it alone.”

  Lin paused as he considered again the possibility that the report was somehow meant to manipulate his decisions. It would be difficult to deliver misinformation within such a bare-bones report, but not impossible. Wang Peng broke into his thoughts.

  “Would you agree, Mr. Chairman, that their estimates of our oil consumption patterns and SPR estimates are not far off? It seems to me like we might be able to go it alone for a longer period than suggested, but we could not get around the ultimate issues of access and affordability that plague the global oil market.”

  “True, Peng. Also, the new Saudi regime has said nothing to assure us our oil supplies will continue uninterrupted. Generally speaking, a destabilized global environment is not in our best interests—we rely too heavily on foreign trade and the importation of raw materials from other countries. America and the Western powers are still our largest trading partners, and we would lose much if their economies were to crater as a result of oil starvation. I can see some attractive short-term gains in severing our diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing ties to the West, but I’m not sure this is a wise long-term move. If we get all the oil we need, but lose the trading partners that buy our goods, what have we really gained? Who will buy our products, and what will we do with a large, unemployed workforce?”