Lethal Trajectories

by Michael Conley

  “This has to be a Saudi deal if it’s going to work,” he said, “and we’ll need to give Prince Khalid all the support we can to stabilize the country and protect major institutions—including the oil infrastructure. Khalid’s postwar strategy is well thought out and should serve as our postwar operating plan to the extent possible. I want our presence to be kept low-key.”

  Looking at Peter Canton, Clayton said, “Peter has some information on the oil situation that suggests we are not out of the woods by a long shot. Pete, the floor is yours.”

  “Thank you, Mr. President,” Peter said nervously. “As you all know, prior to the Saudi oil embargo, the United States was using about seventeen million barrels of oil per day, thirteen million barrels of it imported. With the embargo, our imports were reduced to roughly nine million barrels daily. We offset part of that shortfall through our strategic petroleum reserve. Unfortunately, our SPR is now used up, and there’s nothing more from which to draw.”

  “The war’s over,” said Secretary Thompson, “and we’ll once again receive Saudi oil shipments, right?”

  “You’re partially right, Thurmond,” Peter responded, “but here’s the rub: when Mustafa abruptly shut down production, he did irreparable damage to the wells. Our geologists have not had a chance yet to audit the health of the wells, but their best guess for now is that the Saudis will never again produce more than nine million barrels daily. That’s four million barrels less daily oil for the global oil market—roughly 5 percent of global production. America’s portion of that shortfall might be over a million barrels less of oil daily with no SPR to make good the deficit.”

  Clayton interjected, “The American people will expect things to get back to normal now that the war’s ended, but normal has changed. I can see no way at this time to relax our oil rationing system with the oil shortfalls we’ll have for years to come. In fact, for national security reasons, we may have to consider replenishing our SPR with up to one million barrels per day. That’s a lot of oil to take out of our economy on a semipermanent basis.”

  “How do you propose to break this news to the American people, Mr. President?” asked Vice President Cartright.

  Pausing a moment, Clayton answered, “I’m thinking now of addressing them in the next couple of days to summarize what has happened and what they can expect. It’s important that we quickly take off the table any expectation that oil rationing will be relaxed. Paradoxically, our oil supply situation during the embargo was probably better than we can expect it to be in the future because we had a strategic petroleum reserve to call on then that we don’t have now. It was also easier to get their support for rationing in wartime than it will be now that we are at peace. I’ll be working with China on a joint proposal at the UN calling for a continuation of the global oil rationing system we used during the embargo.”

  Clayton listened to the heated discussion that followed and thought, This is going to be a hard sell to the American people. He next turned to Anthony Mullen for his CIA report. “Tony, what’s the latest from the CIA?”

  “Mr. President,” Mullen responded, “There’s a new twist developing in the Middle East. Our intelligence has confirmed that the Iranians have been reinforcing the island of Abu Musa, near the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, with surface-to-air and surface-to-ship missiles. Abu Musa, if you’ll recall, has been bitterly contested by Iran and the United Arab Emirates for years, and the UAE sees this as a threat to their security as well as to the oil lifeline through the strait. Before the Saudi embargo, over 20 percent of the world’s oil was flowing through the strait every day.”

  “Thanks, Tony. It seems like we no sooner finish this war and we’re back at it again with our friends the Iranians. I’d like you to work out a scenario analysis for our NSC meeting tomorrow. In the meantime, I think we ought to have a squadron of F-22 Raptors make a few low passes over Abu Musa to remind the Iranians we know what they’re doing. This might also be a good issue on which to reestablish our relationship with the UAE, given their paranoid fear of Iran. I’m sure they’re also grateful we were able to prevent any dirty bomb-tipped cruise missiles from hitting their oil fields.”

  As the clamor of varying opinions began again, Clayton thought, It doesn’t take long for the euphoria of victory to be overshadowed by the complexities of peace.

  Walking back to the Oval Office with his brother after the meeting, Jack sighed and said, “It’s never over, is it, Clayton?”

  “What do you mean by that?”

  “I mean just what I said, it’s never over. We no sooner finish one war than the seeds for the next one are sown. The Saudi War has been over for only hours, and we’re already back at it again with the Iranians. Like I said, Clayton, it’s never over.”

  67

  Camp David, Maryland

  12 May 2018

  The luscious signs of spring were everywhere as Lin Cheng and Clayton McCarty walked along one of the many rustic pathways at Camp David. It had been a long week for the two most powerful leaders in the world; their upcoming joint energy and climate-change presentation to the United Nations was the keynote topic of this informal Sino-American summit.

  Camp David was an oasis in a turbulent world, and they welcomed the opportunity to recharge their batteries while working out last-minute details. “You’re getting to be quite the pro at addressing the American Congress, Cheng. Your speech to them on Wednesday was as powerful as the one you gave shortly after President Burkmeister’s funeral. What’s your secret? I need a little help myself.”

  Laughing, Lin Cheng replied, “You’re no slouch yourself, Clayton. The speeches you gave my Politburo last November and your follow-up address to the nation were the talk of China long after you left.”

  “How tough was it for you to stay a couple of steps ahead of your Politburo during the long embargo with the Saudis?”

  “Let’s just say I had to exert maximum effort to keep them on board. I had a faction that wanted to cut a deal with Iran and let the United States and others fend for themselves. Some also felt we should use Israel as a lever to work a deal with Mustafa’s regime.”

  “How’d you manage to keep them on board, if you don’t mind me asking?”

  “No, I don’t mind, Clayton. I think they gradually realized that any quick-fix deals would be just that and nothing more. The prospect of dealing with a large, disgruntled, unemployed workforce was enough to keep the Politburo focused on the bigger picture even though they didn’t like the bumps along the way. How about you? How did you keep Congress and the American people on board?”

  Before answering, Clayton diverted their walk down one of his favorite paths. “I won’t kid you, Cheng, it was tough. In the first few weeks of the embargo—particularly in the early stages of our relationship with your country—I did not enjoy a high approval rating. Many Americans hated the idea of gas rationing, questioned our relationship with your country, rebelled at any perceived restrictions on their freedoms, and even called for us to bomb the daylights out of the Saudis and just go in and take the oil.”

  Lin Cheng thought for a moment and asked, “What turned it around?”

  “America’s a strange country. Our people have been spoiled by decades of prosperity and have always rebelled against the idea of it being taken away from them. A radio personality here by the name of Wellington Crane was particularly successful in stirring the pot, but that began to change as the crisis worsened and he had no real answers to offer. As Americans started to more fully appreciate the breadth and depth of the crisis, they spent less time pointing fingers and more time addressing the challenge at a personal level. America has always been at its best during a crisis, but we’re often painfully slow to identify and address the crisis at an earlier stage. Does that make sense to you?”

  “It makes perfect sense, Clayton. Indeed, it reflects one of the great differences in our two countries. China has a top-down leadership structure that can identify and act on trends faster than yours.
We’re not encumbered by regulatory ordinances, litigation, public opinion, and so forth in the way that you are, and that helps us move faster when necessary. America, on the other hand, is more grassroots-oriented. Your ability to make long-term decisions at the national level is hampered by the conflicting interests of your local constituencies. But in a crisis that everyone can understand, the American people are extraordinarily capable of doing whatever is necessary. So yes, Clayton, it does make sense to me.”

  Clayton wished he understood China as well as Lin Cheng seemed to understand America.

  “If you ever get tired of your job and want to come to America to teach government policy,” Clayton kidded, comfortable in their relationship, “I’ll make sure you get a full professorship somewhere.”

  Lin Cheng laughed and replied, “Thanks, Clayton, but I’m having a hard enough time understanding my own country.”

  They continued their walk beneath a cloudless sky, the clean air just as therapeutic as the postmortem on the brutal crisis they had weathered together.

  “Did you have a hard time convincing your Politburo to support the joint Energy and Environmental Protocol we’ll be presenting to the UN?”

  “We had some long and interesting discussions. The energy part of the plan was actually less of a challenge than the environmental part.” Lin Cheng paused to think; Clayton knew better than to interrupt his train of thought.

  “Let me start with the energy part first. We’re proposing a global oil plan that takes into account the decreasing supply of oil and pegs consumption of that oil to global depletion rates. I explained that it’s a lot like the rationing plan that we used to good effect during the embargo. With Saudi oil supply now re-entering the world oil markets—though at nowhere near the production levels of the past, thanks to the way Mustafa ruined some of the fields—there’ll be more oil on the market than during the embargo. While that’s good, our two countries might have a more serious problem because we’ve used up our strategic petroleum reserves, and the long-term problem will still be with us.”

  Clayton nodded, “I couldn’t agree more; this oil problem isn’t going to go away just because the embargo ended. How did they react to the formula we’ve worked out?”

  “The formula didn’t bother them as much as the monitoring of compliance. Will it be difficult? Yes, but at least the oil supply chains are predictable again. It will allow us time to systematically replace oil-based fuel systems and usages with alternative energies. But again, the challenge will be in monitoring compliance.”

  “I’d agree, Cheng. The world better get used to the idea of seeing a steady reduction of oil supply of at least 3 to 5 percent or more a year, and there’s unlikely to be any sharp improvements in the global economy until we can put in place new energy models not dependent on oil. It’s going to take years.”

  The thought was sobering, as they continued their walk in silence.

  “What about the environment part, Cheng? You said that was more challenging, and I’m interested in what you meant by that.”

  “My challenge was not in convincing them of climate-change, because you can’t live in China and not believe it is happening. The droughts, desertification, Himalayan water challenges, and the quality of the air make it all so apparent. My challenge was to get them to believe a joint effort with the United States, the second-greatest world polluter, was in our best interests. They understand we’re generating over half of the world’s greenhouse gas between us and little can be done globally without cooperation, but they are concerned with what appears to them an inequity in the system.”

  “What’s the inequity? The same formula applies to all,” Clayton asked, puzzled.

  “I understand that, but try to see their logic, Clayton. The United States and other Western powers all polluted mightily to build their industrial base with no questions asked. Now, suddenly, when things are going well for China, India, and other developing nations, we are asked to curtail our emissions and, perhaps, stifle growth. To the Politburo, there’s a clear double standard: it was okay for the Western industrial nations to build their economies without regard to polluting the atmosphere, but it’s not okay for China, India, and others to do the same.”

  “And how do you feel about it?”

  “We both agree that we’ll need to shoot for aggregated carbon equivalent targets of 500 to 525 parts per million by 2050, and we both know how difficult that’s going to be—particularly with the negative feedback loops activated in the planetary climate. We still need to finalize the carbon reduction formula, but pegging it to a combination of GDP and per-capita base emission reductions is a good middle-ground solution. Peng and Jack are back at the Lodge talking about this now, and we’re close.”

  They reached the end of Clayton’s favorite trail, looked around, and then turned around. The bright sun was energizing, and they were in no hurry to get back.

  “How is it all playing out with your people, Clayton?”

  “Our situations are not all that dissimilar. It took a long time, but most Americans would now agree that oil and climate-change issues are for real. The Saudis made believers out of them on oil, and they are now correlating the destructive weather patterns, Southwestern droughts, Midwestern flooding, and rising sea levels with climate-change. They now seem to appreciate that the atmosphere knows no boundaries on climate-change. It’s a global challenge requiring a global effort. We’ve demonstrated that our two countries can work together on common goals, and Americans now believe this is the only way we’ll get through our energy and climate challenges. They know it’ll be a challenge to convince other nations to join in, and, like your Politburo, they’re standing vigilant to see that the United States does not get gamed in the process.”

  “Indeed, your perfect storm metaphor looks more real every day, Clayton. I sometimes wonder if we haven’t passed the point of no return, and then I remind myself we have to keep trying.”

  Clayton nodded thoughtfully, and they picked up the pace of their walk.

  “To change the subject, Cheng, how do you read the situation in the Middle East?”

  Lin Cheng paused before answering. “I think the Saudi operationand aftermath went better than we had any right to expect. China is comfortable with the leadership and reforms of King Khalid, and we endorse his plan to get more of the nation’s oil money back into the hands of the Saudi people. This will go a long way toward addressing the societal issues facing the last two regimes. And of course we are gratified to see oil once again flowing out of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries—although Saudi oil supply is not yet half of what it once was. With the price of oil now hovering around three hundred dollars per barrel and trending downward, perhaps we can start to recharge the global economy.”

  “We share your belief, and I think it will soon be possible to start a partial withdrawal of forces from the region. We’re deeply concerned, however, with some of the moves Iran has made in the Strait of Hormuz. Their actions are destabilizing in a region where we need stability.” Clayton was eager to hear what Lin Cheng would say about the issue, which was vital to the United States. It was a small hope, but….

  Cheng thought for a moment before answering. “Perhaps we can help. We are in no mood for even a threat of disruption in oil supply in that region, and we do have some influence with Iran. Perhaps we can get them to back off a little. That’s about the best I can promise for now, Clayton, but you have my word I’ll see what I can do.”

  “That’s good enough for me. Your word is as good as gold as far as I’m concerned.” Clayton felt relief knowing that China could get to Iran in ways the United States never could. This détente thing really works, he thought.

  “What’s the current situation with Israel?” Lin asked with concern. Ah, Clayton thought, a favor for a favor, as is only fair with allies.

  “Israel is still catching its breath. They were about as close to an all-out nuclear confrontation as a country can get—not a few of their l
eaders thought it was imminent. They’ve been surrounded by hostile neighbors since their inception in 1948, but nothing has ever before equaled the magnitude of this crisis. They truly are exhausted, and I suspect they will be receptive to any worthwhile peace settlements that might be offered. They deeply appreciated, by the way, China’s willingness to not break off diplomatic relationships, and they want to improve their relationship with you.”

  Lin Cheng smiled, probably realizing, Clayton thought, the value of better relations with Israel and the treasure trove of new technologies and markets they could provide.

  Nearing the end of the path, and knowing they would soon meet Jack and Wang Peng for a working lunch at the Lodge, Clayton just had to ask Lin Cheng a question he had been pondering for weeks.

  “What have you learned from all this, Cheng?”

  “I could write a book on it, Clayton. There are so many things I’ve learned and gained—one of them being the friendship that I now have with you and your brother. It’s something I value quite highly.” Clayton, deeply touched by Lin Cheng’s sincerity and humility, could only nod at his remark. But a thought echoed through his head: He’s a classy guy.

  “I guess above all,” Lin continued, “I’ve learned deep in my gut how small this planet is and how mutually interdependent we are. If one nation suffers, we all do in some way. In this new age, future solutions will have to be collaboratively thought out and developed to seek optimal results for all nations. Our days of thinking only in zero-sum frameworks of winners and losers are passé. Whether or not this is true, that’s the way I feel—how about you, Clayton?”

  “My take on it pretty well dovetails with yours. We’ve been so busy battling our hot and cold wars over the years, and we have so little to show for it. Speaking only for myself, I’m saddened to think of how far along we could’ve been on building a clean, renewable energy infrastructure in our country and holding down deficits if the money spent on mega-military establishments to protect our access to oil had instead been deployed toward these projects.”