The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World

by Daniel Yergin

  8 Bruce A. Beaubouef, The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: U.S. Energy Security and Oil Politics, 1975–2005 (College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 2007), ch. 5, epilogue.

  9 Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2003; Bassam Fattouh and Coby van der Linde, The International Energy Forum: Twenty Years of Consumer-Produce Country Dialogue in a Changing World (Riyadh: IEF, 2011), pp. 51, 61, 99–100; interviews.

  10 North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U.S. Departmnt of Energy, High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System, June 2010, pp. 29–30. Dennis C. Blair, “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” February 2, 2010 (“severely threatened”); Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2011 (“bad new world”).

  11 Joseph McClelland, Testimony Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate, May 5, 2011 (smart grid).

  12 Cybersecurity Two Years Later: A Report of the CSIS Commission on Cybersecurity for the 44th Presidency (Washington, DC: CSIS, 2011), p. 1 (“steamboats”); Charles Ebinger and Kevin Massey, “Enhancing Smart Grid Cybersecurity in the Age of Information Warfare,” Brookings Energy Security Initiative, February 2011; Bruce Averill and Eric A. M. Luijf, “Canvassing the Cyber Security Landscape: Why Energy Companies Need to Pay Attention,” Journal of Energy Security, May 2010.

  13 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “World Oil Transit Chokepoints,” EIA website.

  14 Donna J. Nincic, “The ‘Radicalization’ of Maritime Piracy: Implications for Maritime Energy Security,” Journal of Energy Security, December 2010; Jane’s Navy International, September 28, 2010.

  Chapter 14: Shifting Sands in the Persian Gulf

  1 R. W. Ferrier, The History of the British Petroleum Company, Vol. I, 1901–1932 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), p. 161 (Albania); Mira Wilkins, The Maturing of Multinational Enterprise: American Business Abroad from 1914 to 1970 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974), pp. 215–17 (“total loss”); Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Free Press, 1991), ch. 20 (“prize”) and chs. 24, 27, 29, Epilogue for the oil crisis.

  2 Ali Al-Naimi, “Achieving Energy Stability in Uncertain Times,” speech, CERAWeek, February 10, 2010; Ali Al-Naimi, speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2, 2006.

  3 Jane’s Intelligence Review, January 1, 2007 (legitimate target); Thomas Hegghammer, Jihad in Saudi Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 215 (safe house).

  4 Jane’s Intelligence Review, May 1, 2006; Financial Times, August 27, 2007; Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman, Assessing the Terrorist Threat: A Report of the Center’s National Security Preparedness Group, Bipartisan Policy Center, September 10, 2009; The National Interest, May 13, 2009 (economic warfare); Ali Al-Naimi, speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2, 2006.

  5 Washington Post, March 26, 2011.

  6 United Nations Development Programme and Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Human Development Report 2002 (New York: United Nations, 2002).

  7 Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef, eds., Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2009).

  8 Clay Shirky, “The Political Power of Social Media,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 1 (2011), pp. 28–41.

  9 Marcus Noland and Howard Pack, The Arab Economies in a Changing World (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2007), pp. 99–111.

  10 David Hobbs and Daniel Yergin, “Fiscal Fitness: How Taxes at Home Help Determine Competitiveness Abroad,” IHS CERA, August 2010; interview with Lucian Pugliaresi.

  11 Bhushan Bahree, “Fields of Dreams: The Great Iraqi Oil Rush: Its Potential, Challenges, and Limits” IHS CERA, March 2010.

  12 Middle East Economic Survey, October 11, 2010, October 18, 2010.

  13 Michael Axworthy, A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind (New York: Basic Books, 2010), p. 271 (“stupidity”).

  14 Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), pp. 267, 286.

  15 Karim Sadjadpour, Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran’s Most Powerful Leader (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009), pp. vi, 15; interview with Archie Dunham.

  16 Interview.

  17 New York Times, March 10, 1995 (Christopher).

  18 Pollack, The Persian Puzzle, pp. 272, 282 (executive order); interview with Archie Dunham.

  19 Axworthy, A History of Iran, p. 277 (“constitutional government”); Robin Wright, The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and U.S. Policy (Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press, 2010), p. 140.

  20 Madeleine Albright, Madame Secretary: A Memoir (New York: Miramax, 2003), pp. 319–26.

  21 David Frum, The Right Man: An Inside Account of the Bush White House (New York: Random House, 2005), ch. 12 (“axis of evil”); James Dobbins, After the Taliban: Nation-Building in Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008), pp. 121–22, 142–44 (“hunt down the Taliban”); Pollack, The Persian Puzzle, pp. 346–47 (military cooperation).

  22 New York Times, September 24, 2010 (“declining American economy”); Twenty Quotes (embraces Shia islam); Joshua Teitelbaum, “What Iranian Leaders Really Say About Doing Away With Israel,” Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2008 (“wipe Israel off the map”); Axworthy, A History of Iran, pp. 290, 321 (“erased from the pages of time”).

  23 Islamic Republic News Agency, December 5, 2006 (“good neighborliness”).

  24 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Strait of Hormuz,” World Oil Transit Chokepoints, February 2011 (Strait of Hormuz).

  25 Rodney A. Mills, “Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Saber Rattling or Global Energy Nightmare,” Naval War College, 2008, p. 1 (“unlimited period”); U.S. Energy Information Administration, “China,” Country Analysis Brief, November 2010; Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz,” Center for Strategic and International Affairs, March 26, 2007; Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security 33 no. 1 (2008) pp. 82–117; William D. O’Neil, “Correspondence: Cost and Difficulties of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security 33, no. 3 (2008/2009), pp. 190–98.

  26 Pollack, The Persian Puzzle, pp. 258–59.

  27 Christian Science Monitor, September 24, 2008 (“end of times,” “heavens”); New York Times, November 28, 2010.

  28 Guardian, November 28, 2010 (“46 seconds”); Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2010 (“Iranian Tactic”).

  29 X” (George F. Kennan), “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs 25 no. 4 (1947), pp. 566–82.

  30 Eric Edelman, Andrew Krepinevich Jr., and Evan Braden Montgomery, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment,” Foreign Affairs 90 no. 1 (2011), pp. 66–81.

  Chapter 15: Gas on Water

  1 Thomas D. Cabot, Beggar on Horseback: The Autobiography of Thomas D. Cabot (Boston: David R. Godine, 1979), pp. 46 (“opinion”), p. 75 (“dreamt”); Cabot II, p. 118 (“expropriated”).

  2 Cabot II, p. 131 (extreme refrigeration); Malcolm Peebles, Evolution of the Gas Industry (New York: New York University Press, 1980) p. 187 (“intrigued”); Bureau of Mines study (investigation).

  3 Hugh Barty-King , New Flame: How Gas Changed the Commercial, Domestic, and Industrial Life of Britain between 1813 and 1984 (Tavistock: Graphmitre, 1984), pp 237–42 (“high speed gas”); Stephen Howarth, Joost Jonker, Keetie Sluyterman and Jan Luiten van Zanden, The History of Royal Dutch Shell: Powering the Hydrocarbon Revolution 1939–1973, vol. 2 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), p. x.

  4 Fred von der Mehden and Steven W. Lewis, “Liquefied Natural Gas from Indonesia: The Arun Project,” in Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040, eds. David G. Victor, Amy M. Jaffe, and Mark H. Hayes (Cambridge University Press, 2006), p. 101 (Cook Inlet).

 
; 5 Roosevelt to Ickes, August 12, 1942, OF4435, Franklin D. Roosevelt papers (“lyingidle”).

  6 Robert Stobaugh and Daniel Yergin, eds., Energy Future: Report of the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School (New York: Vintage, 1983), p. 70.

  7 Cabot II, p. 134 ($5 million).

  8 Interview with Gordon Shearer.

  9 Fred von der Mehden and Steven W. Lewis, “Liquefied Natural Gas from Indonesia: The Arun Project,” 2006; interview (“crown jewels”).

  10 Interviews (“able to do much”).

  11 Kohei Hashimoto, Jareer Elass, and Stacy Eller, “Liquefied Natural Gas from Qatar: The Qatargas Project,” prepared for the Geopolitics of Natural Gas Study, a joint project of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University and the James A. Baker III Institue for Public Policy of Rice University, December 2004, p. 10.

  12 Interview with Lucio Noto.

  13 Interview with Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyeh.

  14 Blake Roberts and Marcela Rosas, “Ripple Effect: Increased LNG Demand in Japan and the United Kingdom to Reduce LNG Flow to North America,” CERA, July 20, 2007; Institute for Energy Economics Japan, “Impacts on International Energy Markets of Unplanned Shutdown of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station,” April 2008.

  Chapter 16: The Natural Gas Revolution

  1 Dan Steward, The Barnett Shale Play: Phoenix of the Fort Worth Basin - A History (Fort Worth: Fort Worth Geological Society, 2007), p. 32 (geological research).

  2 Houston Chronicle, November 14, 2009 (“what we’re going to do”).

  3 Steward, The Barnett Shale Play, p. 122–23, 141–42 (shut down, good deal of money); interview with Dan Steward.

  4 Steward, The Barnett Shale Play, p. 142 (“light sand fraccing”); interview with Dan Steward; interview with Lawrence Nichols.

  5 Teddy Muhlfelder, “The Shale Gale,” IHS CERA, 2009.

  6 Mary Lashley Barcella, “The Shale Gale Comes of Age: Resetting the Long-term Outlook for North American Natural Gas Markets,” IHS CERA, February 2011.

  7 IHS CERA, Fueling North America’s Energy Future: The Unconventional Natural Gas Revolution and the Carbon Agenda, March 2010; MIT Energy Initiative, The Future of Natural Gas: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011).

  8 Leta Smith, “Shale Gas Outside of North America: High Potential but Difficult to Reach,” IHS CERA, April 2009 (recoverable shale gas).

  9 John C. Harris, “Australian LNG: First Come, First Served,” IHS CERA, January 28, 2011.

  10 Time, February 16, 1970; Willy Brandt, My Life in Politics (New York: Viking, 1992); Angela Stent, From Embargo to Ostpolitik: The Political Economy of West German-Soviet Relations 1955–1980 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), p. 173 (“Economics”).

  11 Angela E. Stent, Soviet Energy and Western Europe (New York: Praeger, 1982), p. 81.

  12 New York Times, September 5, 1982 (“wounded by a friend”); August 3, 1982 (ignore the embargo).

  13 Bloomberg, June 27, 2008.

  14 IHS CERA, Securing the Future: Making Russian-European Gas Interdependence Work (2007), ch. 1.

  15 Thone Gustafson and Matt Sagers, “Gas Transit Through Ukraine: The Struggle for the Crown Jewels,” CERA, 2003.

  16 Christine Telyan and Thane Gustafson, “Russia and Ukraine’s New Gas Agreement: What Does It Mean and How Long Will It Last,” IHS CERA, 2006; Robert L. Larsson, Russia’s Energy Policy: Security Dimensions and Russia’s Reliability as an Energy Supplier (Stockholm: Swedish Defense Research Agency, 2006) (shockwaves); New York Times, January 5, 2006 (“dependence on Russia”).

  17 Katherine Hardin, Sergej Mahnovski, and Leila Benali, “Filling a Southern Gas Pipeline to Europe: Export Potential and Costs for Gas Sources Compared,” IHS CERA, 2010 (Kurdistan).

  18 Peter Jackson, “Evolution of the Structure of the European Gas Market,” IHS CERA, March 2011; Peter Jackson, et al., “The Unconventional Frontier: Prospects for Unconventional Gas in Europe,” IHS CERA, February 2011.

  Chapter 17: Alternating Currents

  1 Jone-Lin Wang, “Why Are We Using More Electricity?,” Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2010.

  2 Jill Jonnes, Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse, and the Race to Electrify the World (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 84.

  3 Thomas Hughes, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society 1880–1930 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993), p. 42 (“dynamos”); IEEE Global History Network, “Pearl Street Station,” at http://www.ieeeghn.org/wiki/index.php/Pearl_Street_Station (electricity bill).

  4 Matthew Josephson, Edison: A Biography (New York: Wiley, 1992), pp. 133–34 (“most useful citizen”) p. 434; Robert Conot, Thomas Edison: A Stroke of Luck (New York: Bantam, 1980), p. 132 (“could not explain”); Jannes, Empires of Light (“minor invention”).

  5 Paul Israel, Edison: A Life of Invention (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998), p. 166 (“subdivided”); Jonnes, Empires of Light, p. 59 (“scientific men”); Hughes, Networks of Power, pp. 19–21 (“Edison’s genius”).

  6 Hughes Networks of Power, p. 22; Israel, Edison, p. 167 (“enabled him to succeed”).

  7 Robert Friedel, Paul Israel and Bernard Finn, Edison’s Electric Light: The Art of Invention (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010), p. 30–31 (“expensive experimenting”); Jonnes, Empires of Light, p. 76 (“Capital is timid”), pp. 3–11 (“experimental station”).

  8 Randall Stross, The Wizard of Menlo Park: How Thomas Edison Invented the Modern World (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2007), p. 126; Jonnes, Empires of Light, pp. 195–97 (“Westinghoused”).

  9 There were 27.5 million recorded visitors to the Chicago World’s Fair in 1893, at a time when the total population of the United States was 65 million; Erik Larson, The Devil in the White City: Murder, Magic, and Madness at the Fair That Changed America (New York: Vintage Books, 2004), pp. 4–5; J. P. Barrett, Electricity at the Columbian Exposition (Chicago: R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company, 1894), pp. xi, 16–18; David Nye: Electrifying America: Social Meanings of a New Technology (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1992), p. 38.

  10 John F. Wasik, The Merchant of Power: Sam Insull, Thomas Edison, and the Creation of the Modern Metropolis (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), pp. 7, 10–11; Forrest McDonald, Insull: The Rise and Fall of a Billionaire Utility Tycoon (Washington, DC: BeardBooks, 2004), pp. 15–20.

  11 Hughes, Networks of Power, p. 220 (“had to go to Europe”).

  12 Richard F. Hirsh, Technology and Transformation in the American Electric Utility Industry (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 19 (“begin to realize”).

  13 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation: Principles and Institutions, vol 2. (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1998), p. 117; Hughes, Networks of Power, p. 206.

  14 Alfred E. Kahn, The Economics of Regulation: Principles and Institutions, vol. 1 (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1998), pp. 11–12, 43 (“fair interpretation”); Samuel Insull, The Memoirs of Samuel Insull: An Autobiography, ed. Larry Plachno (Polo, Illinois: Transportation Trails, 1992), pp. 89–90.

  15 Hughes, Networks of Power, p. 182 (“most important city,” “toasted bread”), p. 227 (“remaining last”).

  16 Hirsh, Technology and Transformation in the American Electric Utility Industry, p. 17; Jonnes, Empires of Light, p. 368; New York Times, July 17, 1938 (“cheapest way”).

  17 Time, May 14, 1934 (“presiding angel”); McDonald, Insull, p. 238 (“my name”).

  18 McDonald, Insull, p. 282.

  19 U.S. Energy Information Agency, “Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935: 1935–1992.” January 1993, p. 6; Time, May 14, 1934 (“I have erred”).

  20 Frederick Lewis Allen, Since Yesterday: The 1930’s in America (New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 1986), p. 75 (“I wish my time”); New York Times, June 12, 1932 (“foresight”); McDonald, Insull, p. 277 (“too broke”).<
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  21 Wasik, The Merchant of Power, p. 236; Time, May 14, 1934; McDonald, Insull, p. 314 (“to get” the Insulls); New York Times, July 17, 1938.

  22 Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., The Age of Roosevelt, vol. 3, The Politics of Upheaval (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1960), p. 304 (FTC).

  23 Hughes, Networks of Power, p. 204 (“difficult concepts”); Schlesinger, The Age of Roosevelt, vol. 3, The Politics of Upheaval, pp. 303–12 (“private socialism”); Kennth S. Davis, FDR: The New Deal Years 1933–1937 (New York: Random House, 1986), pp. 529–37.

  24 Robert Caro, The Path to Power (New York: Vintage Books, 1990), pp. 379, 504.

  25 Kenneth T. Jackson, Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987), pp. 231–33; Michael J. Bennett, When Dreams Came True: The G.I. Bill and the Making of Modern America (Washington, DC: Brassay’s, 2000), p. 287.

  26 Ronald Reagan, Reagan: A Life in Letters, eds. Kiron Skinner, Annelise Anderson and Martin Anderson (New York: Free Press, 2003), p. 143 (“won’t fly”).

  27 Ronald Reagan with Richard G. Hubler, Where’s the Rest of Me? (New York: Duell, Sloan and Pearce, 1965), p. 273 (“most electric house”); Lou Cannon, Governor Reagan: His Rise to Power (New York: Public Affairs, 2003), p. 111 (“more refrigerators”), ch. 6; Nancy Reagan with William Novak, My Turn: The Memoirs of Nancy Reagan (New York: Random House, 1989), p. 128 (Hoover Dam).

  28 General Electric, “Ronald Reagan and GE,” webpage at http://www.ge.com/reagan/video.html.

  Chapter 18: The Nuclear Cycle

  1 David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy 1939–1956 (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 220.

  2 Richard G. Hewlett and Jack M. Holl, Atoms for Peace and War, 1953–1961: Eisenhower and the Atomic Energy Commission (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989), ch. 1.

  3 Hewlett and Holl, Atoms for Peace and War, 1953–1961, pp. 23–65 (“national importance”), (“Project Wheaties”); Stephen E. Ambrose, Eisenhower: Soldier and President (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1990), p. 339 (“scare the country”); Robert Ferrell, ed., The Eisenhower Diaries (New York: W. W. Norton, 1981), p. 234 (“racing towards catastrophe”); Dwight D. Eisenhower, speech, 470th Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, December 8, 1953 (“Peaceful power”).