The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World

by Daniel Yergin

  25 Hart and Victor, “Scientific Elites,” pp. 657–61 (“advertant”); Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, p. 5 (Kennedy); Martin Campbell-Kelly and William Aspray, Computer: A History of the Information Machine (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2004), p. 79 (“considerable temerity”).

  26 Norman Macrae, John von Neumann: The Scientific Genius Who Pioneered the Modern Computer, Game Theory, Nuclear Deterrence, and Much More (American Mathematical Society, 2008), pp. 5, 248 (“last words”).

  27 Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 52, 250, 266, 325, 369; Stanislaw M. Ulam, Adventures of a Mathematician (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), pp. 4, 203, 245.

  28 Campbell-Kelly and Aspray, Computer, pp. 3–4 (“computers”); Macrae, John von Neumann, p. 234 (“modern mathematical modeling”).

  29 Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 298, 302 (“phenomena”).

  30 Spencer Weart, “Government: The View from Washington, DC,” The Discovery of Global Warming, at http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Govt.htm (“warfare”); Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 298, 316 (“jiggle,” “weather predictions”); New York Times, February 9, 1957 (“electronic brain”).

  31 Norman Phillips, “Jule Charney, 1917–1981,” Annals of the History of Computing 3, no. 4 (1981), pp. 318–19; Norman Phillips, “Jule Charney’s Influence on Meteorology,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 63, no. 5 (1982), pp. 492–98; John M. Lewis, “Smagorinsky’s GFDL: Building the Team,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89, no. 9 (2008), pp. 1339–53; Macrae, John von Neumann, pp. 316–20.

  32 “ ‘Suki’ Manabe: Pioneer of Climate Modeling,” IPRC Climate 5, no. 2 (2005), pp. 11–15; Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald, “Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity,” Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24, no. 3 (1967), pp. 241–59; Spencer Weart, “General Circulation Models of Climate,” The Discovery of Global Warming, at http://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm.

  33 Interview with Fred Krupp.

  34 Macrae, John von Neumann, p. 3245–326 (most prominent meteorologist); James G. Speth, Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005), p. 3; interview with Rafe Pomerance; Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23–27, 1979, to the Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council (Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1979) (“incontrovertible evidence”).

  35 “Effects of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the Atmosphere,” Hearing, U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, April 3, 1980.

  36 George M. Woodwell, Gordon J. MacDonald, Roger Revelle, and Charles Keeling, “The Carbon Dioxide Report,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 35, no. 8 (1979), pp. 56–57.

  37 Speth, Red Sky at Morning, pp. 2–9.

  38 Jonathan Overpeck, “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries,” Science 278, no. 5341 (1997).

  39 Walter Munk, “Tribute to Roger Revelle and His Contributions to Studies of Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change,” Colloquium on Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, Irvine, CA, November 13–15, 1995 (“exile”); Revelle Oral History.

  40 Roger R. Revelle, Lecture Notes, Mc6 Box 55, Folder “Natural Sciences 118,” Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archives.

  41 Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (New York: Rodale Books, 2006), p. 10; Al Gore, Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit (New York: Rodale Books, 2006), p. 5 (“rest of my life”); Hecht and Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change,” p. 381 (“deeply disturbed”).

  Chapter 23: The Road to Rio

  1 Mathew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics (London: Routledge, 1996), p. 32; interview with Robert Stavins, New York Times, June 26, 1988 (“For the Midwest”).

  2 Interviews with Tim Wirth and David Harwood; Tim Wirth interview, Frontline, PBS.

  3 New York Times, June 23, 1988; James Hansen interview, Frontline, PBS; James Hansen, testimony, U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, June 23, 1988.

  4 “ ‘Suki’ Manabe: Pioneer of Climate Modeling,” IPRC Climate 5, no. 2 (2005), p. 14 (“They weren’t too impressed”); interview with Tim Wirth (“huge event”); New York Times, August 23, 1988 (“almost overnight”).

  5 Roger R. Revelle to Mancur Olson, September 2, 1988, Mc A6, Box 19, Folder “Correspondence August 1988,” Revelle papers.

  6 Spencer Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003), p. 151 (Villach); Mohamed T. El-Ashry, “Climate Change, Clean Energy, and U.S. Leadership,” AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellows Programs, 30th Anniversary Symposium, May 13, 2004.

  7 Richard Elliott Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998).

  8 Richard Kerr, “Hansen vs. the World on the Greenhouse Threat,” Science 244, no. 4908 (1989), pp. 1041–43.

  9 Tim Wirth to Roger R. Revelle, July 15, 1988, Roger R. Revelle to Tim Wirth, July 18, 1988, Roger R. Revelle to Jim Bates, July 14, 1988, Mc A6, Box 19, Folder “Correspondence July 1988,” Revelle papers.

  10 James E. Hansen, Wei-Chyung, and Andrew A. Lacis, “Mount Agung Eruption Provides a Test of Global Climactic Perturbation,” Science 199, no. 4333 (1978), pp. 1065–68 (“simultaneous studies”); Audubon, November–December 1999 (“captivated,” “best proof”); James Hansen, “Climate Threat to the Planet: Implications for Energy Policy and Intergenerational Justice,” Jacob Bjerknes Lecture, American Geophysical Union, December 17, 2008 (“Venus Syndrome”).

  11 Andrew Revkin, “Endless Summer: Living with the Greenhouse Effect,” Discover, October 1988.

  12 George H. W. Bush, press release, September 1, 1988, George Bush Presidential Library; New York Times, September 2, 1988 (“White House effect”); Alan D. Hecht and Dennis Tirpak, “Framework Agreement on Climate Change: A Scientific and Policy History,” Climactic Change 29 (1995), p. 383.

  13 Time, August 20, 1923, June 11, 1934, June 19, 1939, August 19, 1955.

  14 Sports Illustrated, March 13, 1989; Time, August 6, 1934 (“U.S. Sahara”); New York Times, September 4, 1988 (“packing our bags”); Irving M. Mintzer and J. A. Leonard, “Visions of a Changing World,” in Negotiating Climate Change: The Inside Story of the Rio Convention, eds. Irving M. Mintzer and J. A. Leonard (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 52 (“science fiction”).

  15 Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World’s Economy (New York: Touchstone, 2002), pp. 95–96.

  16 Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years (London: HarperCollins, 1993), pp. 640–41; Margaret Thatcher, speech to the Royal Society, September 27, 1988.

  17 Weart, The Discovery of Climate Change, p. 12 (“indispensable man”); Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change: The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), p. 23 (“As chairman”); interview with Danel Esty.

  18 Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 48–49, 58; James Baker, speech, in Department of State Bulletin, April 1989.

  19 Interview with Daniel Esty.

  20 Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, p. 63.

  21 W. K. Reilly, Breakdown on the Road from Rio: Reform, Reaction, and Distraction Compete in the Cause of the International Environment, 1993–94, Arthur and Frank Payne Lecture, Stanford University (“bet your economy”); interview with William Reilly (“dined out”); George Will, Washington Post, May 31, 1992 (“red roots”).

  22 Interview with John Sununu; Los Angeles Times, March 2, 1990 (“nuclear power fights”).

  23 Cable from American Embassy in Bonn to White House, March 13, 1992, Folder 45045-020, George H. W. Bush Presidential Library; New York Times, May 9, 1989; New York Times, March 24, 1992.

  24 G
eorge H. W. Bush, press conference, April 10, 1992.

  25 New York Times, June 13, 1992 (“lone holdout”).

  26 New York Times, June 14, 1992 (“second to none,” “Darth Vader”); interview with William Reilly.

  27 Irving M. Mintzer and J. Amber Leonard, eds., Negotiating Climate Change: The Inside Story of the Rio Convention (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), ch. 1, appendix (“dangerous anthropogenic interference”).

  28 Interview with William Reilly.

  Chapter 24: Making a Market

  1 Michael Sandel, “It’s Immoral to Buy the Right to Pollute,” op-ed, New York Times, December 17, 1997; interview with Fred Krupp.

  2 Ronald Coase autobiography, Nobel Prize Web site (“underrate your abilities”).

  3 Ronald Coase, “The Problem of Social Cost,” Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 3, (1960), pp. 1–44 (“externalities”).

  4 John H. Dales, Pollution, Property & Prices: An Essay in Policy-making and Economics (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1968), ch. 6; David Montgomery, “Markets in Licenses and Efficient Pollution Control Programs,” Journal of Economic Theory 5, no. 3 (1972), pp. 395–418.

  5 Richard Nixon, “Message to the Congress,” August 10, 1970 (“war on pollution”); Robert W. Hahn, “Economic Prescriptions for Environmental Problems: How the Patient Followed the Doctor’s Orders,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3, no. 2 (1989), pp. 97–98.

  6 Harold Williamson, Ralph Andreano, Arnold Daum, and Gilbert Klose, The American Petroleum Industry: The Age of Energy, 1899–1959 (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press, 1963), p. 409.

  7 Interviews with C. Boyden Gray and William Martin.

  8 Hahn, “Economic Prescriptions for Environmental Problems,” pp. 95–114.

  9 Interview with Robert Stavins.

  10 Robert Stavins, ed., Project 88: Harnessing Market Forces to Protect the Environment (Washington, D.C.:1988) (“incentive systems”).

  11 Richard Conniff, “The Political History of Cap and Trade,” Smithsonian, August 2009 (Canadian prime minster).

  12 Interview with C. Boyden Gray; Bruce A. Ackerman and Richard B. Stewart, “Reforming Environmental Law : The Democratic Case for Market Incentives,” Columbia Journal of Environmental Law 171, no. 3 (1988).

  13 Interviews with Fred Krupp and C. Boyden Gray.

  14 Kathy McCauley, Bruce Barron, and Morton Coleman, Crossing the Aisle to Cleaner Air: How the Bipartisan “Project 88” Transformed Environmental Policy (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, 2008), p. 25 (“totally different concept”); Robert N. Stavins, “What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 12, no. 3 (1998), p. 74 (“decision-making”).

  15 Joseph Goffman and Daniel J. Dudek, “The Clean Air Act Acid Rain Program: Lessons for Success in Creating a New Paradigm,” presentation, 88th Annual Meeting, Air & Waste Management Association, June 18–23, 1995, pp. 5, 7, 9. Whether Goffman and Dudek were aware of it or not, they, too, were channeling an “academic scribbler.” For they were echoing the historic 1945 article by Frederich von Hayek about “the use of knowledge in society”: that a dispersed market with many decision-makers, coordinated through a price system, is going to be better informed, quicker, and more innovative than a centrally directed economy. See Frederich A. Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review 35, no. 4 (1945), pp. 519–30.

  16 Stavins, “What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment?,” p. 69.

  17 Environmental Protection Agency, “Acid Rain and Related Programs: 2008 Highlights,” December 2009; Environmental Defense Fund, “The Cap and Trade Success Story,” February 12, 2007; Lauraine G. Chestnut and David M. Mills, “A Fresh Look at the Benefits and Costs of the U.S. Acid Rain Program,” Journal of Environmental Management 77 (2005), pp. 252–66.

  18 A. Denny Ellerman, Paul L. Joskow, Richard Schmalensee, Juan-Pablo Montero, and Elizabeth M. Bailey, Markets for Clean Air: The U.S. Acid Rain Program (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), p. 314 (“impossible to believe”); interview with Joseph Goffman; Fred Krupp, “The Making of a Market-Minded Environmentalist,” Strategy + Business 51 (2008), pp. 1–7.

  19 Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change: The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 87–89, 112–13 (“best estimated”); Richard A. Kerr, “It’s Official: Humans Are Behind Most of Global Warming,” Science 291, no. 5504 (2001), p. 566.

  20 Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 108, 139.

  21 Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 137, 182, 196 (“lacked the scientific knowledge”); Richard S. Linzden, “Taking Greenhouse Warming Seriously,” Energy and Environment 18, no. 7–8 (2007), pp. 937–50 (“iconic claim”).

  22 Interview.

  23 Interviews with Stuart Eizenstat, David Sandalow, and Joseph Goffman.

  24 Interview with Stuart Eizenstat.

  25 Interview with Chuck Hagel.

  26 Krupp, “The Making of a Market-Minded Environmentalist,” pp. 1–7 (policies and measures); interview with Stuart Eizenstat (“three issues”).

  27 Interview with Stuart Eizenstat.

  28 Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change, pp. 151, 159.

  29 Interviews with Chuck Hagel and others.

  Chapter 25: On the Global Agenda

  1 Tony Blair, A Journey: My Political Life (New York: Knopf, 2010), pp. 554–60.

  2 Nicholas Stern to author; Nicholas Stern, The Global Deal: Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity (New York: Public Affairs, 2009), p. 204.

  3 Interviews with James Connaughton (“zippo”) and Jeffrey Kupfer; Christine Todd Whitman, It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America (New York: Penguin, 2005) pp. 170-73; Ron Suskind, The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O’Neill (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), pp. 88, 99, 121–22; Paul O’Neill, Science, Politics, and Global Climate Change (Pittsburgh: Alcoa, 1998).

  4 Interview with Donald Evans.

  5 Interview with James Mahoney; Granger Morgan, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Henrion, D. Keith, R . Lempert, S. McBrid, M. Small, T. Wilbanks, eds., Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking (Washington, D.C.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009).

  6 Blair, A Journey, p. 311 (“masterstroke”).

  7 Interview with David King; David King, “The Science of Climate Change: Adapt, Mitigate or Ignore?” The Ninth Zuckerman Lecture, October 31, 2002; David King, “Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?” Science 303, no. 5655 (2004), pp. 176–77.

  8 CENTRA Technology Inc. and Scitor Corporation, “Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications,” September 2009.

  9 Interview with Richard Sandor; Richard Sandor, “Market Based Solutions for Climate Change,” paper, September 1, 2004.

  10 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 2, 12, 85–88; Al Gore remarks at the Wall Street Journal Eco-Nomics conference, March 3, 2009.

  11 Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007); Economist, November 2, 2006.

  12 Interviews with William Nordhaus and Nicholas Stern.

  13 John Browne, Beyond Business (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2010), p. 80; John Browne, speech, Stanford University, May 19, 1997.

  14 Daniel C. Esty and Andrew S. Winston, Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use Environmental Strategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006); Global Climate “Backgrounder,” February 25, 1997 (“radical reductions”).

  15 Al Gore,
Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, Oslo, Norway, December 10, 2007.

  16 Rajendra Pachauri, “Energy and Growth: Beyond the Myths and Myopia,” Energy Journal 10, no. 1 (1989), p. 12 (“continuing insularity”); “A Conversation with Nobel Prize Winner Rajendra Pachauri,” Yale Environment 360, June 3, 2008 (“alarm”); interview with Rajendra Pachauri, CERAWeek, February 11, 2008 (“no room”).

  17 Nancy Pelosi, speech, Johns Hopkins University Commencement, May 21, 2009.

  18 Transcript, “Departments of Veterans Affairs and Housing and Urban Development and Independent Agencies Appropriations for 1999—Part 7—Environmental Protection Agency,” U.S. House of Representatives Appropriations Committee, 1998; Carol Browner, speech, MIT Energy Initiative, April 13, 2009; George W. Bush, letter to Chuck Hagel, March 13, 2001 (“not a ‘pollutant’”).

  19 Edward Markey, speech, MIT Energy Initiative, April 13, 2009 (“most important”); Opinion of the Supreme Court, Massachusetts et al. v. Environmental Protection Agency, April 2, 2007, 549 U.S. 497, pp. 2–3, 16; New York Times, October 30, 2006.

  20 Interviews with Samuel Bodman and Paula Dobriansky; George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, Washington, D.C., January 23, 2007; George W. Bush, Decision Points (New York: Crown, 2010), p. 347.

  Chapter 26: In Search of Consensus

  1 Barack Obama, “Remarks on Jobs, Energy Independence, and Climate Change,” January 26, 2009.

  2 Interview with Ed Markey.

  3 Erica Downs, “China’s Energy Rise” in China’s Rise in Historical Perspective, ed. Brantly Womack (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2010), p. 190.

  4 Joanna A. Lewis, “China’s Strategic Priorities in International Climate Change Negotiations,” Washington Quarterly 31, no. 1 (Winter 2007–8), pp. 155–74 (four-year study); National Development and Reform Commission, “China’s National Climate Change Program,” People’s Republic of China, June 2007 (“further intensify”); Kenneth Lieberthal, “U.S.-China Clean Energy Partnership: Progress, Prospects and Recommendations,” Brookings Institution, September 2009 (possible consequences); New York Times, September 8, 2009 (“win-win”).