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Prisoners of Geography

Page 24

by Tim Marshall


  Looking further ahead, as we continue to break out of the prison of our geography into the universe, the political struggles will persist in space, at least for the foreseeable future.

  A human being first burst through the top layer of the stratosphere in 1961 when twenty-seven-year-old Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin made it into space aboard Vostok 1. It is a sad reflection on humanity that the name of a fellow Russian called Kalashnikov is far better known.

  Gagarin, Buzz Aldrin and many others are the descendants of Marco Polo and Christopher Columbus, pioneers who pushed the boundaries and who changed the world in ways they could not have imagined in their own lifetimes. Whether for better or worse is not the point; they discovered new opportunities and new spaces in which peoples would compete to make the most of what nature had put there. It will take generations, but in space, too, we will plant our flags, ‘conquer’ territory, claim ground and overcome the barriers the universe puts in our way.

  There are now about 1,100 functioning satellites in space, and at least 2,000 non-functioning ones. The Russians and Americans launched approximately 2,400 of the total, about 100 have come from Japan and a similar number from China, followed by a host of other countries with far fewer. Below them are the space stations, where for the first time people live and work semi-permanently outside the confines of earth’s gravity. Further on, at least five American flags are thought to be still standing on the surface of the moon, and further still, much further, our machines have made it out past Mars and Jupiter, some heading way beyond what we can see and are trying to understand.

  It is tempting to think of our endeavours in space as linking humanity to a collective and co-operative future. But first there will continue to be competition for supremacy in outer space. The satellites are not just there to beam back our TV pictures, or to predict the weather: they also spy on other countries, to see who is moving where and with what. In addition, America and China are engaged in developing laser technology, which can be used as weapons, and both seek to ensure that they have a missile system that can operate in space and nullify the competition’s version. Many of the technologically advanced nations are now making preparations in case they need to fight in space.

  When we are reaching for the stars, the challenges ahead are such that we will perhaps have to come together to meet them: to travel the universe not as Russians, Americans or Chinese but as representatives of humanity. But so far, although we have broken free from the shackles of gravity, we are still imprisoned in our own minds, confined by our suspicion of the ‘other’, and thus our primal competition for resources. There is a long way to go.

  BIBLIOGRAPHY

  General references

  Diamond, Jared, Guns, Germs, and Steel (New York: W. W. Norton, 2005)

  Dodds, Klaus, Geopolitics: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007)

  Ikenberry, G. John, ‘The Illusion of Geopolitics’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2014)

  Keegan, John, Atlas of World War Two (London: Harper Collins, 2006)

  Mackinder, Halford John, ‘The Geographical Pivot of History’, The Geographical Society, Vol. 23, No. 4 (April 1904), 421–37

  Mackinder, Halford John, Democratic Ideals and Reality, 1919

  Mead, Walter Russell, ‘The Return of Geopolitics’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2014)

  Monmonier, M., How to Lie with Maps (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996)

  Parry, Chris, Super Highway: Sea Power in the 21st Century (London: Elliott & Thompson, 2014)

  Pickles, John, A History of Spaces: Cartographic Reason, Mapping and the Geo-Coded World (London: Routledge, 2004)

  Roberts, S., Secor, A., and Sparke, M., ‘Neoliberal Geopolitics’, Antipode, Vol. 35, No. 5 (November 2003), 886–97.

  The Times Atlas of World History (London: Times Books, 2000)

  The Times Comprehensive Atlas of The World, 12th edition (London: Times Books, 2007)

  Weigley, Russell F., The American Way of War (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1973)

  Russia

  Eberstadt, Nicholas, ‘Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications’ (National Bureau of Asian Research, 2010)

  Kennan, George F., ‘The Sources of Soviet Conduct’, Foreign Affairs (July 1947)

  ‘Russia’s accusations – setting the record straight’, NATO Fact Sheet (April 2014)

  China

  Beardson, Timothy, Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China’s Future (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013)

  Boehm, Dana Carver, ‘China’s Failed War on Terror: Fanning the Flames of Uighur Separatist Violence’, Berkley Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Law, Vol. 2, No. 1:3 (2009)

  De Crespigny, Rafe, China This Century (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992)

  Holmes, James, ‘When China Rules the Sea’, Foreign Policy (September 2015)

  Kaplan, Robert D., The Revenge of Geography (London: Random House, 2012)

  Lewis, Martin, ‘East Asia’, Stanford University Global Geopolitics Lectures, East Asia (15 January 2008)

  Shaughnessy, Edward L. (ed.), China: Empire and Civilization (London: Duncan Baird Publishers, 2005)

  Theroux, Paul, Riding the Iron Rooster (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1988)

  USA

  Commager, S., Documents of American History Volume 1: to 1898 (10th Edition) (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1988)

  Kagan, Robert, Dangerous Nation: America and the World, 1600–1898 (London: Atlantic Books, 2006)

  Pei, Minxin, ‘How America and China See Each Other’, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2014)

  ‘The Geopolitics of the United States, Part 1: The Inevitable Empire’, Stratfor.com, 4 July 2014 (https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics-united-states-part-1-inevitable-empire)

  US Department of State, ‘Rise to World Power, 1867–1913’, A Short History of the Department of State (history.state.gov/ departmenthistory/short-history)

  Africa

  Bloom, David E. and Sachs, Jeffrey D., ‘Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa’, Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University (October 1998)

  Chaves, Isaías, Engerman, Stanley L. and Robinson, James A., ‘Reinventing the Wheel: The Economic Benefits of Wheeled Transportation in Early Colonial British West Africa’, February 2012 (http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jrobinson/files/the_wheel_in_africa_february_2012.pdf)

  Kasperson, Roger E. and Minghi, Julian V., The Structure of Political Geography (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2011)

  Western Europe

  Kagan, Robert, Of Paradise and Power (New York: Random House, 2003)

  Ottens, Nick, ‘ “Too Big for Europe”: The Recurring German Problem’, Atlantic Sentinel, 28 April 2014

  Speck, Ulrich, ‘Power and Purpose: German Foreign Policy at a Crossroads’, 3 November 2014 (http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=57167)

  Simon, Luis and Rogers, James, ‘The Return of European Geopolitics? All roads run through London’, The RUSI Journal, Vol. 155, No. 3 (2010), 57–63

  Turchin, Peter, War and Peace and War (London: Plume Books, 2007)

  Middle East

  Fisher, Max, ‘40 Maps Which Explain The Middle East’, Vox.com, 5 May 2014 (http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-the-middle-east)

  Malinowski, Jon C. (ed.), ‘Iraq: A Geography’, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York, 2004 (http://www.usma.edu/gene/SiteAssets/SitePages/Publications/Iraq%20A%20Geography.pdf?Mobile=1)

  India and Pakistan

  French, Patrick, India: A Portrait (London: Allen Lane, 2011)

  ‘Geography of India’, MapsofIndia.com, 12 November 2014 (http://www.mapsofindia.com/geography/)

  Institute for the Study of War, ‘Pakistan and Afghanistan’ (2009)

  Kreft, Dr. Heinrich, ‘The Geopolitical Importance of Pakistan’, Institut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung (ISPSW), 15 February 2008

  Musharraf, P
ervez, In The Line Of Fire: A Memoir (New York: Free Press, 2008)

  Latin America

  Keen, Benjamin and Haynes, Keith, A History of Latin America, Volume 1 (Wadsworth: Cengage Learning, 2012)

  World Economic Forum on Latin America 2011 (http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-latin-america-2011)

  Zovatto, Daniel, ‘Elections in the Southern Cone: Citizens Chose Continuity’, Brookings, 30 October 2014 (http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/10/30-democracy-alternation-latin-america-zovatto)

  Korea and Japan

  Chang, Gordon G., Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On The World (London: Hutchinson, 2006)

  Kim, Seung-Young, American Diplomacy and Strategy Toward Korea and Northeast Asia 1882–1950 and After (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009)

  Oberdorfer, Don, The Two Koreas (New York: Basic Books, 2001)

  Arctic

  Bjarnason, Björn, ‘Climate Change and Iceland’s Role in North Atlantic Security’ (speech), Belfer Center, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard, 26 November 2007

  Conant, Eve, ‘Breaking the Ice: Russian Nuclear-Powered Ice-Breakers’, Scientific American blog, 8 September 2012 (http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/09/08/breaking-the-ice/)

  Grydehøj, Anne, Grydehøj, Adam and Akrén, Maria, ‘The Globalization of the Arctic: Negotiating Sovereignty and Building Communities in Svalbard, Norway’, Island Studies Journal Vol. 7, No. 1 (2012), 99–119

  United Nations, ‘Part V: Exclusive Economic Zone’, UNCLOS Treaty (http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part5.htm)

  Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, ‘The Arctic: Exploration Timeline, Polar Discovery’, 2009 (http://polardiscovery.whoi.edu/arctic/330.html)

  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

  Many thanks to all those who freely gave of their time, advice and encouragement.

  I would like to thank my wife Joanna for her patience and natural spellcheck abilities, Pippa Crane and Jennie Condell at Elliott and Thompson for giving shape and direction to my geographic wanderings, and Ollie Dewis for her encouragement and ideas.

  I am grateful to the following for casting their experienced eyes over sections of the book and would like to reiterate that any errors contained therein are my doing and responsibility: James Richards (former official Chinese interpreter to the UK government, Chairman of China Association), Professor James D. Boys (Visiting Senior Research Fellow, Kings College London), David Slinn (former UK Ambassador to North Korea), Joel Richards MA (South American specialist), Kelvin O’Shea (Sky News), Tim Miller (Sky News), Jaksa Scekic (Reuters Belgrade) and Aleksander Vasca (Reuters Belgrade).

  Also, thanks to those serving members of governments and the civil service who kindly gave me their expertise, but preferred it to be used without attribution.

  INDEX

  A

  Abdullah, King 152

  Abe of Japan, Prime Minister 58

  Abkhazia 110

  Adams, Henry 68

  Adams, John Quincy 69

  Addis Ababa 128–129

  Aegean Sea 16, 95, 176

  Afghanistan vii, xii, 9, 12, 22, 42, 46, 77, 85, 104, 169. 171, 187, 189, 191, 195, 193–198, 200–203, 205, 244, 277

  Africa

  agriculture 118, 132

  China and 58, 124–125, 129, 132, 133–136

  climate and terrain 120, 136

  diseases 118–120, 136

  early empires 120

  energy resources 127, 129–132, 134

  European influence 120–121

  human rights 135

  internal conflicts 122–123, 125–133, 139

  mineral resources 123, 124, 127, 135, 138–139

  North viii, 28, 84, 93, 117

  rivers 116, 119–120, 127, 130, 132, 138

  size and population 116–117, 123–124, 127, 129, 132, 136, 139

  slavery 121

  Southern 134, 136–138

  trading links 116, 119, 120, 121, 128, 135–136, 138

  see also individual countries by name

  African National Congress (ANC) 137

  Aksai Chin 42

  al-Bashir, Omar 135

  Al Qaeda xii, 47, 156–157, 162, 196–198, 200, 203

  al-Qaradawi, Yusuf 179

  Alaska 10, 51, 72, 117, 188, 264, 275

  al-Assad, Bashar 155, 175

  Alawites 148, 153–155, 171

  Albania 7, 14, 99

  Algeria 145

  Alps Mountains 24, 44, 90, 91

  Amazon River 238, 252

  American Revolutionary War 66

  Amundsen, Roald 266

  Andes Mountains 238

  Angola 58, 118, 122, 124, 125, 131–132, 134–137

  Antarctica 259, 275

  Appalachian Mountains 64, 66, 67

  Arab-Israeli War 153

  Arab Spring 39, 177–178

  Arabian Desert 145

  Arabian Peninsula 151

  Arabian Sea 144, 184, 193, 207

  Arctic xiv, xv, 8, 9, 12, 29, 106, 259, 261–278

  Arctic Council 271, 277

  claims to sovereignty xv, 271, 276

  expeditions 265–267, 271

  extent of region 264

  global warming 264, 268–269

  icebreakers 275–276, 278

  natural resources 264, 269–271, 277

  Northern Sea Route 269

  Northwest Passage 265, 266, 269

  Russia and the 271

  United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 270, 275

  Argentina 236, 237, 240, 241, 249, 252–258

  Armenia 14, 25, 169

  Armitage, Richard 197

  Arunachal Pradesh 42, 204

  Asia viii, 4–6, 10, 11, 37, 79–80, 174, 176, 193, 213, 218

  see also individual countries by name

  Assam 192, 205

  Atatürk 173–174, 177

  Atlantic Ocean 6, 16, 17, 28, 35, 57, 66, 73, 75–77, 91, 93, 101, 104, 106, 116, 117, 119, 131, 132, 134, 137, 176, 237, 243, 247, 248, 253, 258, 259

  Australia xiv, 73, 76, 79

  Austria 26, 27, 38

  Austro-Hungarian Empire 92

  Azerbaijan 12, 13

  B

  Bahrain xvi, 78, 83

  Balboa, Vasco Núñez de 248

  Balkans vii, xi, xii, 27, 99

  Baltic Sea 9, 17, 23 27, 77, 110

  Baltic States 7, 9, 21–23, 110, 218

  Baluchistan 189, 190, 191, 202

  Bangladesh 57, 161, 185, 187, 188, 267, 280–281

  Bay of Bengal 57, 184–185, 207, 280

  Belarus 12, 14, 27

  Belgium 5, 19, 38, 106, 124, 126, 254

  Belize 241, 243

  Berlin Wall 6

  Bert, Melissa 274

  Bessarabia see Moldova

  Bhutan 185, 204

  Bhutto, Benazir 197–198

  Bild newspaper 111

  bin Laden, Osama 200, 203

  Bjarnason, Björn 274

  Black Sea 9, 15–17, 21, 24, 25, 27, 77, 91, 144, 175, 176

  Boko Haram 130–131

  Bolívar, Simón 239

  Bolivia 239–241, 253

  Bosporus Strait 16, 17

  Brahmaputra River 186

  Brazil 73, 84, 237, 238, 240, 249, 251–256

  BRICS 255

  Britain 26, 76, 98, 101, 105–107, 158, 163, 257

  Afghanistan and 198–199

  Belize and 241

  Falkland Islands 255, 257–259, 267

  Israel/Palestine and 163

  Middle East and 146, 151–152, 198–199

  military forces 74–75, 101, 106

  USA and 66–67, 74–76

  Brunei 55

  Bulgaria 7, 14, 26, 27, 91, 99

  Burkina Faso 54

  Burma 38, 41–42, 57–58, 78, 185, 204, 206, 227

  Burundi 125–127, 138

  C

  California Gold Rush 71

  Cameroon 131

  Canada xiv, 65,
264–266, 269, 271, 272, 275, 276

  Canadian Shield 65

  Cape of Good Hope 116–117, 137

  Caribbean Sea 57, 73, 84, 237

  Catalonia 91

  Catherine the Great 9, 20

  Caucasus 8, 9, 12, 25, 161, 176

  Central African Republic 118, 125

  Chad 117, 122, 131

  Charles XII of Sweden, King 6

  Chechnya, Caucasus 8, 12

  Chile 73, 237, 238, 240, 241, 251, 252, 257

  China viii, x, xiv, 9, 11, 28–30, 32–59, 73, 76–84, 117, 119, 124, 129 132–135, 179, 185, 191, 193, 203–207, 212, 214, 218, 221–222, 224, 226, 228–231, 246–249, 251, 255, 269, 271, 275, 280, 282

  Africa and 58, 124–125, 129, 132, 133–136

  Air Defence Identification Zone 53, 54, 81, 229

  Arctic and 51, 271, 275

  Communist Party 39–40, 42–44, 48–49

  early history 35–38

  energy resources 82, 133, 135

  Han Chinese 35–38, 41, 43–45, 46–48

  human rights perspective 43–44, 49

  India and 42–43, 192, 193, 203–206, 207

  Japan and 52–53

  Korea and 212, 216, 218, 221–222

  Central/Latin America and 246–249, 251, 255

  Middle East and 180

  military forces 221

  Mongol invasions 38

  Navy 34, 35, 50, 53, 55, 56, 57

  North China Plain ‘the heartland’ 35

  Pakistan and 190–191, 193

  Russia and 46

  Taiwan and 39, 51, 53–55, 82, 249

  Tibet and 36, 39, 42–45, 46, 192, 203–204

  USA and 34, 51, 53, 54, 55–57, 76, 78–80, 81, 212, 218, 229–230

  Vietnam and 41–2, 55

  Xinjiang 38, 39, 44, 45, 46–48

  Churchill, Winston 4

  Clinton, Hillary 79

  Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) 14

  Colombia 238, 244, 251

  colonialism xv, xvi, 122, 124, 126, 127, 130, 136, 148, 156, 177, 185, 195, 236, 239, 250, 252

  Communism 6, 9, 29–30, 38, 84, 132, 177, 212, 214–217

  China 39–40, 42–44, 48–49, 82, 227

  Korea 214, 216, 217

  see also Russia/Soviet Union (USSR)

  concrete 75, 78, 83, 131

  Congo 118, 121

  see also Democratic Republic of the Congo

  Congo River 119

 

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