Rip Gop

by Stanley B Greenberg

  56. Ibid.

  57. Alvin Chang and Tara Golshan, “The Republican Push for Welfare ‘Work Requirements,’ Cartoonsplained,” Vox.com, July 26, 2018.

  58. Ibid.

  59. Ibid.; Jared Bernstein, “The Facts About Work Requirements Are Being Ignored. Here’s Why,” The Washington Post, April 16, 2018.

  8     HOW DID DEMOCRATS LET DONALD TRUMP WIN?

  1. Ben Rhodes, The World as It Is: A Memoir of the Obama White House (New York: Random House, 2018), p. xvi.

  2. These graphs are derived from a survey that took place Monday, November 7, through Wednesday, November 9, 2016, among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with a high stated intention of voting in 2016. In addition to a 900-voter base sample, oversamples of 200 Rising American Electorate voters (unmarried women, minorities, and millennials) and 200 battleground state voters (AZ, FL, OH, IA, NC, NV, NH, PA, VA, WI) were included. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Of the 1,300 respondents, 65 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate.

  3. Annie Lowrey, “Living on Minimum Wage,” The New York Times, June 15, 2013; “Myth and Reality: The Low-Wage Job Machine,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, August 9, 2013; Steven Rattner, “The Myth of Industrial Rebound,” The New York Times, January 25, 2014; Harold Meyerson, “The Forty-Year Slump,” The American Prospect, November 12, 2013; Bill Marsh, “The Low Wage Americans,” The New York Times, July 27, 2013; Kevin Drum, “The Minimum Wage in America Is Pretty Damn Low,” Mother Jones, December 2, 2013.

  4. National survey of 950 2012 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and the Roosevelt Institute, October 16–21, 2014.

  5. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 26, 2018, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATENSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 26, 2018, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATENSA.

  6. Donald Trump, Remarks to Veterans, November 15, 2018.

  7. Rabal Kamal and Cynthia Cox, “How Has US Spending on Healthcare Changed over Time?” Health System Tracker, Kaiser Family Foundation, https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spending-healthcare-changed-time/#item-health-services-spending-growth-slowed-a-bit-in-recent-quarters_2018, accessed December 26, 2018; Leigh Purvis and Dr. Stephen Schondelmeyer, “Rx Price Watch Report: Trends in Retail Prices of Brand Name Prescription Drugs Widely Used by Older Americans: 2017 Year-End Update,” AARP Public Policy Institute, https://www.aarp.org/ppi/info-2016/trends-in-retail-prices-of-drugs.html, accessed December 26, 2018.

  8. On behalf of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, Democracy Corps conducted a series of three phone surveys with accompanying web surveys among an ongoing panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women, and white non-college-educated women (RAE+) in twelve states with governor races (10 Senate races): Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. The phone survey of 1,000 registered voters with 66 percent cell rate was conducted September 4–10, 2018. The voter-file-matched web panel of 1,085 RAE+ registered voters was conducted August 28–September 10.

  9. On behalf of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, Democracy Corps conducted the first in a series of three 1,000 registered voter phone surveys with accompanying registered voter web surveys among an ongoing panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women, and white non-college educated-women (RAE+) in twelve states with governor races (10 Senate race states). They include six “Diverse States”–Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and New Mexico–with less than 70 percent white-only populations and six “Rust Belt + States”—Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Tennessee—with more than 70 percent white-only populations. The phone survey of 1,000 voter-file-matched registered voters with 66 percent cell rate was conducted April 5–12, 2018. The voter-file matched web-panel of 3,140 “RAE+” registered voters was conducted April 4–16, 2018. Ideological measures in the web survey were weighted to phone-survey results to account for the bias in web panels.

  10. Stephen L. Morgan and Jiwon Lee, “The White Working Class and Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections, 2004 to 2016,” Sociological Science 4 (2017): p. 664, table 2.

  11. Note when I write a third, I’m giving more weight to Election Day polls, which have a much bigger sample. They are weighted down.

  12. CNN 2018 exit polls, Democracy Corps September 10 phone poll and web panel.

  13. On behalf of Public Citizen, Citizen Opinion conducted a series of six focus groups: two groups among white non-college-educated Trump voters who voted for Obama at least once or identify as Democrats from Macomb County, Michigan, on December 3, 2018, two among white non-college-educated Trump voters who voted for Obama at least once or identify as Democrats from Oak Creek, Wisconsin (south of Milwaukee), on December 4, and two among white college-educated non-Trump voters who voted for Democrats for Congress in 2018 from Seattle, Washington, on December 5. We spoke to the same groups of voters in the same locations on July 20, 24, and 25 in 2017, at the outset of NAFTA renegotiations.

  14. This is determined by whether it was the male or female group.

  15. Democracy Corps, “New Poll: In Era of Anger, Broad Support for Small Donor-Driven Reform of Campaigns,” December 17, 2015, http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/new-poll-in-era-of-anger-broad-support-for-small-donor-driven-reform-of-campaigns/, accessed January 2, 2018.

  16. Ibid.

  17. National web survey of 1,200 likely 2016 voters conducted from April 11 through April 18, 2016. Likely voters were determined based on whether they voted in 2012 or had registered since and stated intention of voting in 2016.

  18. To accurately compare the conservative visions—which include both the framework and the agenda for the economy—with the progressive alternatives, we combined the results of the progressive frameworks and progressive agendas.

  19. Email from Stan Greenberg, April 24, 2016.

  20. Email from Stan Greenberg, July 23, 2016.

  21. Email from Stanley Greenberg, July 29, 2016.

  22. Email from Stanley Greenberg, August 10, 2016.

  23. Email from Stanley Greenberg, September 29, 2016.

  24. Email from Stanley Greenberg, October 6, 2016.

  25. Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women’s Vote Action Fund, “Change Versus More of the Same: On-Going Panel of Target Voting Groups Provides Path for Democrats in 2018,” November 2, 2017, http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1077/Dcor_WV_RAE+%20Panel_Wave%202_Memo_11.2.2017_FOR%20RELEASE.pdf, accessed December 28, 2018.

  26. Tax Foundation, “Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” December 18, 2017, https://taxfoundation.org/final-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-details-analysis/, accessed December 27, 2018;

  27. Howard Gleckman, “The TCJA Would Cut Taxes by an Average of $1,600 in 2018, with Most Benefits Going to Those Making $300,000-Plus,” December 18, 2017, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tcja-would-cut-taxes-average-1600-2018-most-benefits-going-those-making-300000-plus, accessed December 30, 2018.

  28. Reuters, “US Economic Growth Slows in Fourth-Quarter on Surging Imports,” January 26, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/26/gdp-q4-2017-first-reading.html, accessed January 1, 2019; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 1, 2019, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE.

  29. Heather Long, “Trump Says U.S. Economy May Be the ‘Greatest in History.’ Let’s Check the Record,” The Washington Post, June 5, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/05/trump-says-u-s-economy-may-be-the-greatest-in-history-lets-check-the-record/?utm_term=.13f484008621, access
ed December 28, 2018; Donald J. Trump, Twitter.com, September 20, 2018, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1042731410858168320, accessed December 28, 2018.

  30. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-claims-ownership-of-uss-economic-recovery-as-he-blasts-trump-2018-09-07 “By the time I left office, household income was near its all-time high, and the uninsured rate had hit an all-time low and wages were rising,” he said. “I mention all this so when you hear how great the economy is doing right now, let’s just remember when this recovery started.

  “I’m glad it’s continued, but when you hear about this economic miracle that’s been going on … I have to kind of remind them, actually those job numbers are kind of the same as they were in 2015 and 2016.”

  31. Stanley Greenberg, Dispatches from the War Room: In the Trenches with Five Extraordinary Leaders (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2009), Kindle locations 1253–1405.

  32. Democracy Corps, “The Democratic Opportunity on the Economy and Tax Cuts,” April 11, 2018, http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1081/Dcor_AFT_April%20Tax%20Poll_Memo_4.11.2018_for%20web.pdf, accessed December 30, 2018.

  33. Ibid.

  34. Ibid.; Democracy Corps Surveys Conducted on behalf of Women’s Voices Women’s Vote Action Fund, December, September, July, May 2018 surveys, http://www.democracycorps.com/Battleground-Surveys/, accessed January 2, 2019.

  35. Ibid.

  36. On behalf of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, Democracy Corps conducted a series of three phone surveys with accompanying web surveys among an ongoing panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women, and white non-college-educated women (RAE+) in twelve states with governor races (10 Senate races): Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. The phone survey of 1,000 registered voters with 66 percent cell rate was conducted September 4–10, 2018. The voter-file-matched web panel of 1,085 RAE+ registered voters was conducted August 28–September 10.

  37. Senate Democrats, “A Better Deal,” https://www.democrats.senate.gov/abetterdeal, accessed January 2, 2019; House Democrats, “A Better Deal: The Proposals,” https://abetterdeal.democraticleader.gov/category/the-proposals/, accessed January 2, 2019.

  38. Ibid.

  39. Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, “For the People,” https://dpcc.house.gov/for-the-people, accessed January 2, 2019.

  40. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, “What Jobs Did the #GOPTaxScam” REALLY Create?” October 3, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrCNKT69Ep8, accessed January 2, 2019.

  41. Jonathan Freedland, “Explaining Trump, Brexit and Other Expressions of Nationalism,” The New York Times Book Review, December 18, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/18/books/review/john-b-judis-nationalist-revival.html, accessed May 3, 2019; E.J. Dionne, “Is There Such a Thing as Progressive Nationalism,” The American Prospect, April 1, 2019, https://prospect.org/article/there-such-thing-progressive-nationalism, accessed April 2, 2019; John B. Judis, The Nationalist Revival: Trade, Immigration, and the Revolt Against Globalization, (New York: Columbia Global Reports, 2018).

  42. Robert Kuttner, Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism? (New York: W. W. Norton, Incorporated, April 2018), p.184; Tara Golshan and Dylan Scott, “The Big Divide Among 2020 Democracies over Trade—and Why It Matters,” Vox, February 18, 2019, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/18/18215442/2020-presidential-election-trade-elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-kamala-harris, accessed February 26, 2019.

  43. Robert Kuttner, “Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism?”

  44. Stiglitz, People, Power, Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent, pp. 79-81.

  45. This phone survey for Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch took place January 12–17 among 1,000 registered voters nationally. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Of the 1,000 respondents, 67 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate.

  46. David Dayen, “The Biggest Question Mark for the New Congress,” The New Republic, November 28, 2018.

  47. Greg Sargent, “Democratic Focus Groups May Have Identified a Hidden Vulnerability for Trump,” The Washington Post, February 7, 2019;

  48. Freeland; Edward Luce, “Donald Trump is building a populist global club,” Financial Times, April 11, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/19196876-5bee-11e9-9dde-7aedca0a081a; Ishaan Tharoor, “Exposing the town crier of the West’s far right,” The Washington Post, April 1, 2019; Shaun Walker, Angela Giuffrida, and Jon Henley, “Salvini aims to forge far-right alliance ahead of European elections,” The Guardian, April 4, 2019.

  49. William H. Frey, “The Millennial Generation: A Demographic Bridge to America’s Diverse Future,” Brookings Institute, Metropolitan Policy Program, January 2018, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2018-jan_brookings-metro_millennials-a-demographic-bridge-to-americas-diverse-future.pdf, accessed December 27, 2018; also, Sabrina Tavernise, “U.S. Has Highest Share of Foreign-Born Since 1910, with More Coming from Asia,” The New York Times, September 17, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/13/us/census-foreign-population.html.

  50. Time series of battleground polls conducted from October 2017 through September 2018.

  51. Democracy Corps, “Rising American Electorate and White Working Class Strike Back,” November 27, 2018, http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1103/Dcorps_PE%20Phone_WV_Extended%20Deck_11.27.18_for%20release.pdf, accessed December 27, 2018.

  52. These results are the second to be released from an innovative phone and ongoing panel research program for the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund to deeply understand the diversity of America and the potential to shape the electorate and outcome in 2018. It is the second in a series of three waves of l,000 national registered-voter phone surveys with accompanying registered-voter web surveys among a panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women, and white non-college-educated women (the RAE+), among 4,000 respondents from the first wave of web surveys and 2,454 respondents in the second wave. The national phone survey of 1,000 voter-file-matched registered voters, with 65 percent of respondents reached on cell phones, was conducted October 7–12, 2017. The voter-file matched RAE+ panel of 2,425 registered voters was conducted online October 6–18, 2017. Unless otherwise stated, the results are shown by the RAE only. Where white working-class women are displayed, the results are shown for the full RAE+ sample to accurately reflect the attitudes of these voters. Where changes from the first wave are displayed, the wave 1 responses are filtered to wave 2 respondents only.

  53. “The Economic Impact of S.744, The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act,” Congressional Budget Office, June 2013, p. 1; Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, “Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed,” Pew Research Center, September, 23, 2013; U.S. Senate, The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, 113th Cong., 1st sess., 2013, S.744; American Immigration Council, “Guide to S.744: Understanding the 2013 Senate Immigration Bill,” Immigration Policy Center, July 2013.

  54. U.S. Senate, The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act; American Immigration Council, “Guide to S.744.”

  55. “The Economic Impact of S.744,” p. 3.

  9     AFTER THE CRASH

  1. This phone survey took place January 12–17 among 1,000 registered voters nationally. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Of the 1,000 respondents, 67 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate.

  2. Kevin Morris and Myrna Perez, “Florida, Georgia, North Carolina Still Purging Voters at High Rates,” October 1, 2019, https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/florida-georgia-north-carolina-still-purging-voters-high-rates, accessed January 18, 201
9; Khushbu Shah, “‘Textbook Voter Suppression’: Georgia’s Bitter Election a Battle Years in the Making,” The Guardian, November 10, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/10/georgia-election-recount-stacey-abrams-brian-kemp, accessed January 17, 2019.

  3. Findings from a web survey of 1,200 Republican and Republican-leaning independent registered voters nationally, conducted by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Research August 21–26, 2018.

  4. Democracy Corps conducted the second in a series of two web surveys among an ongoing panel of 1,280 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in twelve states with governor races (10 Senate races): Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. This web survey took place November 3–16, 2018.

  5. Ibid.

  6. Vice President Mike Pence remarks on the administration’s policy toward China October 4, 2018, Hudson Institute; Josh Rogin, “Pence: It’s Up to China to Avoid a Cold War,” The Washington Post, January 27, 2019; Jason Scott, Dandan Li, and Isabel Reynolds, “Pence’s Sharp China Attacks Fuel Fears of New Cold War,” November 18, 2018, Bloomberg; Laurens Cerulus, “China’s Ghost in Europe’s Telecom Machine,” Politico, December 11, 2017; Karen Freifeld and Eric Auchard, “U.S. Probing Huawei for Possible Iran Sanctions Violations: Source,” Reuters, April 15, 2018.