Able Sentry

by John Schettler

  What else could I have done? With no strike aircraft, and no bomber support this far from China, all I ended up doing was to charge at them like a mad bull, but they were the matador, deftly evading every rush, and delivering one lance after another with their carrier air wing, slowly wearing us down.

  At that point, I decided to try and defeat them on the strategic level. Yes, I knew where they wanted to go with their fleet of transports and supply ships. They needed a port, and there were only two that could receive them in Oman, Salaha in the south, and Muscat in the north. I sailed my fleet to stand off Salaha, and ordered my destroyers to shell the place into oblivion. Alas, our deck guns were just too small. They were never designed to deliver the punishing bombardments navies could mete out in WWII. It was like throwing pebbles at a stone wall. After hours of shore bombardment, all I managed to do was put one of many naval docks beyond repair. Then, with my ships needing fuel, and the American carriers able to replenish their ordnance at sea, I had no choice.

  The Gulf of Aden detachment had already been targeted and largely depleted of SAM’s by an American carrier strike, so I sent it home to Aden. Then I took the rest of the fleet northeast into the Arabian Sea, closer to airfields in Pakistan that could support us… closer to the naval and air forces of Pakistan itself.

  I could not drive them off, let alone stop them, and I had to make this ignominious withdrawal, with their submarines nipping at my heels, putting torpedoes into all my replenishment ships. Admiral Hong Buchan was of no great help. He was more of a nuisance than anything else, refusing to coordinate properly with my main body, and losing an entire task force to devastating enemy air strikes. I will have further words with Beijing concerning that man.

  So now what am I to do? The Americans did what they came here to do. They were able to control the Indian Ocean, in spite of the considerable power of our fleet, and they were able to deliver their troops to Salaha. They arrived there, in spite of all our efforts to stop them, and landed their Marines on the 6th of December. Five days later, they were in Saudi Arabia, and the Iraqis began to lose their nerve. They suspended their offensive operations, and began pulling out their better divisions, returning them to Iraq. Was all this my fault?

  No! I must not berate myself. The planners in Beijing, and the senior Admirals on the Naval General Staff have not rebuked me. They took my report, and with plenty of soy to swallow that dumpling, but they did not rebuke me. Hong Buchan was transferred from command of the Arabian Sea Fleet, and assigned as the Naval Liaison to Pakistan. My request for much stronger air support was granted, and now we have focused all our diplomatic efforts on getting Pakistan to openly join us at sea, and enter the war on our behalf, because, quite frankly, we need them.

  Yes…. This war does not go anywhere near as well as we planned. Operation Wildfire in the Med was masterfully executed, though not without losses, mostly attributed to our overall inexperience at sea in real conflict like this. But we are learning. Persuading Egypt to close the Suez Canal was a master stroke, though the unintended consequence of that was the entry of Israel into the war, and they are a powerful adversary.

  Then the American move across the Atlantic to Israeli ports was a most unexpected stroke. We were fools not to anticipate this possibility. Yes, they crossed the wide Pacific to deliver one strong Marine Division to Oman, and we focused all our energies trying to stop it. But that was the least of our worries. The real threat was in the Atlantic… in the Med.

  We moved all our naval strength in the Middle Sea through the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and then slammed the gates of Suez closed behind us. Now, with Israel sweeping across the Sinai towards the Suez Canal, there is no possibility that we could ever reach the Med again with our warships. Even without the Israeli Army there, the Americans have another damnable Carrier Strike Group sitting north of Egypt, and reinforced by a Royal Navy carrier.

  So we have lost the Med. Our Operation Wildfire was a fool’s errand. Once we ceded that sea to the enemy, and our intelligence service now tells us that they will use it to start moving the real strength of their army to Israel. That would certainly put water in the knees of the Iraqis when we tell them what is coming. From Israel and Jordan, the Americans could easily move on Baghdad! Qusay Hussein would have to pull his Republican Guards out of Saudi Arabia, and with this US Marine division arriving at Oman, and all the Gulf States joining the Saudis, the Iraqi Operation Desert Sword would have to be sheathed. The Americans have again organized a coalition of forces to join them. Yes, soon they will have the British, French, Germans and Italians involved in the land war, as the European Union finally realized what was at stake.

  Once they organize, they will move to undo everything the Iraqis accomplished in their offensive. They will move to throw them out of Saudi Arabia, and liberate Kuwait as well. And what can China do about this? Most of our army is in Manchuria. All our Marines and airborne troops are sitting on the Ryukyu Islands! We might free up troops and send them to Pakistan, and from there to Iran and even Iraq, but it would take us many weeks. That is a matter for the Army to decide. My charge is the Navy, so what will I do?

  I have brought the fleet to Karachi, the only port large enough to receive us. Eleven ships returned there to replenish, and nine others went to Gwadar, with nine more at Aden. To these I add four submarines. That makes 33 warships at my disposal, still a formidable force. Pakistan might contribute 15 frigates and three submarines, but what if the Indian Navy joins the Western alliance? With Pakistan, we can float just over 50 warships, and yet I have learned a great lesson—we cannot control the Indian Ocean, even with a force that large.

  What we can do is contest the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden, and secure the approach to the Persian Gulf. Unless they defeat us, and decisively, nothing moves to or from the Persian Gulf without our leave. This forces them to rely on the port of Salaha in Oman if any further forces come this way, but something tells me they will stake everything on the operation they have planned for Iraq. Before they launch that attack, they seem preoccupied with neutralizing Egypt, and reopening the Suez Canal. This is only logical. If they wish to turn east and cross the wide deserts into Iraq, then they would not wish to leave a strong foe like Egypt behind them. If they wish to reverse what we achieved in the Med and open the Suez Canal, then they must fight their way to the suburbs of Cairo. And this is what they appear to be attempting.

  This has immediate implications for our positions on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Naval intelligence informs me that the British fleet has detached from the Americans, and now moves towards the Gulf of Aden. The Australians have joined them as well, and both fleets have amphibious ships. Naval General Staff believes they are going to make landings on Socotra, and seize that base. So here is something useful for the ships I sent to Aden. That group is led by Nanchang, the very first Type 055 class destroyer we commissioned, back in the year 2020. I will order that squadron to sortie at once and see if they can foil this British operation.

  In the meantime, I roost at Karachi, waiting for the outcome of negotiations with Pakistan. We will make every effort to thank our hosts here, and I will send all my Captains to meet with those of the Pakistani Navy and warm the soup between us. The Americans are preoccupied with sorting out their sealift to Salaha, and replenishing their ships, and December was a time of holidays, so it was not surprising that they did not wish to fight a major battle until the new year has come. No, they are methodical, careful, and diligent. They will strengthen their forces in Saudi Arabia, and move troops to Israel, but now the year has turned over for them, and they will gird themselves for battle.

  I must be ready for them when they come, because they will certainly fight to open the Strait of Hormuz. Then we fight them in the Arabian Sea, and if experience is any teacher, they will sit southeast of their Omani base at Masirah, about 350 miles from Karachi. But what if I kept my fleet here in port? Venturing out into the Arabian Sea seems the natural course, but I will face land ba
sed American air power in Oman on the one flank, and possibly India on the other. Would they dare to strike us here at Karachi? It would mean that they would provoke Pakistan into entering the war, but they may see that as inevitable now. So I must be cautious, and forestall any “Pearl Harbor” while I sit here in port.

  Yes, here I sit, roosting in this harbor. We have lost control of the Indian Ocean, and now our bases on Sri Lanka are in jeopardy. Fighting one American carrier was enough, now there are two. I am told that their USS Independence has moved into the Indian Ocean, and there is no way I can intervene to save Colombo or Hambantoa….

  Ayahh… Things looked so much better when I was fighting the British alone. Look at us now. We thought we could shut down Suez, and then had a fleet strong enough here to control the sea lanes between the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca. We thought that strait would also be under our control by now, and while Admiral Wu Jinlong has driven off the Royal Navy and neutered the naval forces of Singapore, he has yet to control those waters. The Siberians intervened, just as they did in our Iwo Jima operation, and the result was the sinking of our carrier, Shandong, and the heavy damage put on Zhendong as well. This has forced us to move our only fleet carrier, Taifeng into the South China Sea, leaving only the light carriers Guandong and Liaoning to guard all we have taken in the East China Sea.

  Wu Jinlong was ordered to return to Cam Ranh Bay, because even Taifeng does not carry sufficient aircraft to adequately cover the fleet as far south as Singapore. The truth of the matter was that the Navy was not willing to expose that ship to the same fate suffered by Shandong, but that will never be openly stated among flag level officers. The truth can sting at times. Clearly, we have seen that we do not have carrier forces possessing even a fraction of the capabilities exercised daily by the Americans. We were too confident, and too convinced that if shown the real strength of our Navy, the United States would not engage.

  We were wrong….

  * * *

  Even as Admiral Sun Wei consolidated and replenished his fleet at Karachi, in mid-December the Iraqi Army was moving important elements north, along with its 2nd Army HQ. The ill-fated flanking move that was stopped at Rivet Joint One had left much of the Republican Guard in a precarious position, with a difficult supply line. So Guard of the 1st Corps with the Hammurabi, Baghdad, Talwalkana, Al Medina and Nebuchadnezzar Divisions, was withdrawn north to consolidate and reorganize. Of the Guard divisions, Talwalkana and Nebuchadnezzar were so badly torn up that they were disbanded, and their equipment sent to the other divisions to try and bring them up to strength.

  At the same time, orders were sent to nine territorial brigades from Mosul, Kirkuk, Erbil, Tikrit, Samarra, Ramadi, Najaf, Karbala, and Hillah. Their commanders were told to prepare for a new movement order that could come that week. The Iraqi 1st Army command issued orders to fold back the line, which was still anchored on the coast near Jubayl. By December 5th, it ran due west from there, reaching and crossing Highway 75. Two brigades that had been left at Halfar Al Batin would set up a blocking position there, and special forces brigades from both Iraq and Iran would roost in the western territory, able to move by helicopter quickly if any threats developed.

  Like Admiral Sun Wei, the Iraqi General Kamel Ayad was brooding, the hindsight of reality now overshadowing all the lofty expectations of Operation Desert Sword when it was begun.

  We came so close, thought the Perfect One with Power, as his name decreed. We went all the way to Ghawar, but we could not take those fields. Indeed, they were so vast that we would have had to go well south of Highway 80 to control them. This foray into Saudi Arabia was ill-advised. We should have been satisfied with the taking of Kuwait, and I must keep the army ready to withdraw there on a moment’s notice. If we stay too far south, we risk being cut off and trapped.

  So I will seek permission for such a move from the Prime Minister, and see if he agrees that all we have done in Saudi Arabia is kick up a great deal of sand and dust!

  Aside from the gas plant near Al Jubayl, all the Saudi oil infrastructure remains intact. In truth, we never went there to destroy it, but to seize and hold it as a bargaining chip. This Army was to have been a razor edged scimitar at the throat of the Saudi King, but now it will not be sharp enough to cut his fingernail. As I see things, staying in Saudi Arabia poses some threat there. But when one looks deeper, he will quickly see that we have very little offensive power now. With five divisions and nine territorial brigades withdrawing north, all we can do is stand on defense. The Americans will surely know this, so let us hope Qusay Hussein knows it as well.

  If I can obtain permission for a withdrawal, then General Abdul Bakir will take over here while I assume command of 2nd Army in Kuwait, and organize a second line of defense there. But how long can we hold what we have taken? I am told the Israelis may be getting into this war, as we knew they would one day. Only they are not coming east towards Iraq, but mobilizing on the Egyptian border in Sinai. In the meantime, the American and British fleets will certainly be up to mischief in the Arabian Sea. Look at this intelligence briefing… The British have landed troops on Socotra!

  Chapter 2

  A possession of Yemen in this history, it was only natural that the Allied camp would want to secure Socotra Island at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, and remove that forward asset from Chinese hands. Now Admiral Wells was opening his campaign to do exactly that, and then some.

  The time had come to eliminate the Chinese choke hold on the Gulf of Aden, and open the southern route into the Red Sea. Admiral Wells had been given that assignment, under a plan called Talisman Saber. It had been the focus of annual training exercises annually for many years for rapid amphibious operations, and now it was going to war.

  Wells had two task forces, the Amphibious Group centered on the Australian flagship Canberra, and defended by destroyer Hobart and five frigates. All the Royal Navy support ships joined, including the twin knights, Sir Galahad and Sir Lancelot, and replenishment ship Fort Victoria, Australian Landing Ship Dock Choules, and the American RO/RO ship Charlton. Together they had a light brigade with loads of equipment. The troops included Royal Marine Commandos, and the Australian 2nd Commando Regiment, with some SAS troops assigned from Tactical Assault Group West. All told, the flotilla had 1550 men under arms.

  Their mission was to seize and occupy the Chinese base at Ras Karma on Socotra as an appetizer before going in after Aden and Djibouti. In this history, there was no French, Japanese or American presence at Djibouti, so it was a Chinese preserve, and had to be neutralized. There was no point in launching the massive operation across Sinai to the Suez Canal if China still controlled access to the Red Sea from the south.

  The covering force for the operation was centered on Wells with the carriers Prince of Wales, Victorious and Ark Royal, with five destroyers and seven frigates, including the Argos Fire.

  Mack Morgan had done his homework, and flew over to Prince of Wales, to meet with the British Admiral, resisting the urge to tell him he knew and served with his ancestor in WWII. He had come to present the Chinese order of battle as he had been able to divine in on the Deep Net.

  “Well met,” said Wells, offering a hearty handshake. Then the two got down to business as Morgan laid out his briefing materials.

  “Nanchang,” he began. “First Type 055 destroyer built by China, and that will be their flag. The second tier will be these three Type 052D class destroyers, Jiyuan, Yangwei, and Yuyuan. Then come two older destroyers, a type 052C, the Haikou, and one type 051B, the Kaifeng. They’ll round it out with two frigates, with a third laid up at Aden for repairs.”

  “Anything at Doraleh?” asked Wells, which was the Chinese operated port at Djibouti.

  “Just a support ship and a couple Type 22 missile boats, so that first group is the main force, and its already at sea.”

  “I expect we’ll make contact soon,” said Wells, feeling just a little better now that the Yanks had come in to lend a hand. The eight sh
ips Morgan had reported seemed manageable, but Morgan said that close satellite photo imaging over Aden had seen the loading of missiles analysts had identified as the YJ-18.

  “That’s the real beast that bothers us,” said Wells. “Yet with five destroyers on the first line here, and many of the frigates rigged out with that new Mark 29 ESSM system, we might blow though. When we confronted the Chinese earlier, they were in numbers strong enough to overwhelm our ship based SAM’s, which is why I was forced to use my air wing on defense. Here we’ll take a leaf from the Yanks’ book. We’ll find them, and then in go the F-35’s. That sort of attack was what drove this group home to Aden in the first place. Now I hope to finish the job.”

  “Have you got the muscle?”

  “Ark Royal is mainly a helicopter ship, but it brought six F-35’s, Victorious has 14 and we have another 17, so that makes 37 fighters. It should do the job. Anything on Socotra now that I should know about?”

  “No sir,” said Morgan. “We’ve identified no aircraft presently based there. I think you’ll grab the place as easy as we took Victoria in the Seychelles. As for their land based air assets, we figure about two squadrons, mostly J-10’s, but a few J-20’s, and they are forward deployed at Riyan Airfield on the central coast of Yemen.”

  Thank you, Mister Morgan. And by the by… Any word on your CEO and Captain MacRae?”

  “I’m afraid my intelligence has turned up nothing there, sir. But we’re looking. Damnedest thing…. How could we lose them like that, and with four of our Argonauts, all armed to the teeth.”

  “On a pleasure jaunt?”