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Overcomplicated

Page 18

by Samuel Arbesman


  Brookline, Mass., 101

  Brooks, David, 155

  Brooks, Frederick P., Jr., 38, 59, 93

  bugs, in software, see software bugs

  bureaucracies, growth of, 41

  cabinets of curiosities (wunderkammers), 87–88, 140

  calendar application, programming of, 51–53

  Cambridge, Mass., 101

  cancer, 126

  Carew, Diana, 46

  catastrophes, interactions in, 126

  Challenger disaster, 9, 11, 12, 192

  Chandra, Vikram, 77

  Chaos Monkey, 107, 126

  Chekhov, Anton, 129

  Chekhov’s Gun, 129

  chess, 84

  Chiang, Ted, 230

  clickstream, 141–42

  Clock of the Long Now, The (Brand), 39–40

  clouds, 147

  Code of Federal Regulations, 41

  cognitive processing:

  of language, 73–74

  limitations on, 75–76, 210

  nonlinear systems and, 78–79

  outliers in, 76–77

  working memory and, 74

  see also comprehension, human

  collaboration, specialization and, 91–92

  Commodore VIC-20 computer, 160–61

  complexity, complex systems:

  acceptance of, see biological thinking

  accretion in, 36–43, 51, 62, 65, 191

  aesthetics of, 148–49, 156–57

  biological systems and, 116–17, 122

  buoys as examples of, 14–15, 17

  complication vs., 13–15

  connectivity in, 14–15

  debugging of, 103–4

  edge cases in, 53–62, 65, 201, 205

  feedback and, 79, 141–45

  Gall on, 157–58, 227

  hierarchies in, 27, 50–51

  human interaction with, 163

  infrastructure and, 100–101

  inherent vs. accidental, 189

  interaction in, 36, 43–51, 62, 65, 146

  interconnectivity of, see interconnectivity

  interpreters of, 166–67, 229

  kluges as inevitable in, 34–36, 62–66, 127

  in legal systems, 85

  and limits of human comprehension, 1–7, 13, 16–17, 66, 92–93

  “losing the bubble” and, 70–71, 85

  meaning of terms, 13–20

  in natural world, 107–10

  scientific models as means of understanding, 165–67

  specialization and, 85–93

  unexpected behavior in, 27, 93, 96–97, 98–99, 192

  see also diversity; technological complexity

  complexity science, 132–38, 160

  complication, complexity vs., 13–15

  comprehension, human:

  educability of, 17–18

  mystery and, 173–74

  overoptimistic view of, 12–13, 152–53, 156

  wonder and, 172

  see also cognitive processing

  comprehension, human, limits of, 67, 212

  complex systems and, 1–7, 13, 16–17, 66, 92–93

  humility as response to, 155–56

  interconnectivity and, 78–79

  kluges and, 42

  legal system and, 22

  limitative theorems and, 175

  “losing the bubble” in, 70–71, 85

  Maimonides on, 152

  stock market systems and, 26–27

  technological complexity and, 18–29, 69–70, 80–81, 153–54, 169–70, 175–76

  unexpected behavior and, 18–22, 96–97, 98

  “Computational Biology” (Doyle), 222

  computational linguistics, 54–57

  computers, computing:

  complexity of, 3

  evolutionary, 82–84, 213

  impact on technology of, 3

  see also programmers, programming; software

  concealed electronic complexity, 164

  Congress, U.S., 34

  Constitution, U.S., 33–34

  construction, cost of, 48–50

  Cope, David, 168–69, 229–30

  corpus, in linguistics, 55–56

  counting:

  cognitive limits on, 75

  human vs. computer, 69–70, 97, 209

  Cowen, Tyler, 84

  Cryptonomicon (Stephenson), 128–29

  “Crystalline Structure of Legal Thought, The” (Balkin), 60–61

  Curiosity (Ball), 87–88

  Dabbler badge, 144–45

  dark code, 21–22

  Darwin, Charles, 115, 221, 227

  Daston, Lorraine, 140–41

  data scientists, 143

  datasets, massive, 81–82, 104–5, 143

  debugging, 103–4

  Deep Blue, 84

  diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA), 134–35

  digital mapping systems, 5, 49, 51

  Dijkstra, Edsger, 3, 50–51, 155

  “Divers Instances of Peculiarities of Nature, Both in Men and Brutes” (Fairfax), 111–12

  diversity, 113–14, 115

  see also complexity, complex systems

  DNA, see genomes

  Doyle, John, 222

  Dreyfus, Hubert, 173

  dwarfism, 120

  Dyson, Freeman, on unity vs. diversity, 114

  Dyson, George, 110

  Economist, 41

  edge cases, 53–62, 65, 116, 128, 141, 201, 205, 207

  unexpected behavior and, 99–100

  see also outliers

  Einstein, Albert, 114

  Eisen, Michael, 61

  email, evolution of, 32–33

  emergence, in complex systems, 27

  encryption software, bugs in, 97–98

  Enlightenment, 23

  Entanglement, Age of, 23–29, 71, 92, 96, 97, 165, 173, 175, 176

  symptoms of, 100–102

  Environmental Protection Agency, 41

  evolution:

  aesthetics and, 119

  of biological systems, 117–20, 122

  of genomes, 118, 156

  of technological complexity, 127, 137–38

  evolutionary computation, 82–84, 213

  exceptions, see edge cases; outliers

  Facebook, 98, 189

  failure, cost of, 48–50

  Fairfax, Nathanael, 111–12, 113, 140

  fear, as response to technological complexity, 5, 7, 154–55, 156, 165

  Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Y2K bug and, 37

  feedback, 14–15, 79, 135

  Felsenstein, Lee, 21

  Fermi, Enrico, 109

  Feynman, Richard, 9, 11

  field biologists, 122

  for complex technologies, 123, 126, 127, 132

  financial sector:

  interaction in, 126

  interconnectivity of, 62, 64

  see also stock market systems

  Firthian linguistics, 206

  Flash Crash (2010), 25

  Fleming, Alexander, 124

  Flood, Mark, 61, 85

  Foote, Brian, 201

  Fortran, 39

  fractals, 60, 61, 136

  Frederick the Great, king of Prussia, 89

  fruit flies, 109–10

  “Funes the Memorious” (Borges), 76–77, 131

  Galaga, bug in, 95–96, 97, 216–17

  Gall, John, 157–58, 167, 227

  game theory, 210

  garden path sentences, 74–75

  generalists, 93

  combination of phys
ics and biological thinking in, 142–43, 146

  education of, 144, 145

  explosion of knowledge and, 142–49

  specialists and, 146

  as T-shaped individuals, 143–44, 146

  see also Renaissance man

  generalization, in biological thinking, 131–32

  genomes, 109, 128

  accretion in, 156

  evolution of, 118, 156

  legacy code (junk) in, 118, 119–20, 222

  mutations in, 120

  RNAi and, 123–24

  Gibson, William, 176

  Gingold, Chaim, 162–63

  Girl Scouts, 144–45

  glitches, see unexpected behavior

  Gmail, crash of, 103

  Gödel, Kurt, 175

  “good enough,” 27, 42, 118, 119

  Goodenough, Oliver, 61, 85

  Google, 32, 59, 98, 104–5

  data centers of, 81–82, 103, 189

  Google Docs, 32

  Google Maps, 205

  Google Translate, 57

  GOTO command, 44–45, 81

  grammar, 54, 57–58

  gravitation, Newton’s law of, 113

  greeblies, 130–31

  Greek philosophy, 138–40, 151

  Gresham College, 89

  Guide of the Perplexed, The (Maimonides), 151

  Haldane, J. B. S., 153

  hapax legomena, 54–55, 128, 206

  Harold and the Purple Crayon (Johnson), 162

  Harvard, John, 90

  Heartbleed vulnerability, 97–98

  Heaven, Douglas, 82

  heavy-tailed distributions, 55–56, 133, 206

  hierarchies, 27, 50–51

  highly optimized tolerance, 99, 120

  Hild (Griffith), 145–46

  Hillis, Danny, 23

  Hölzle, Urs, 217

  Holzmann, Gerard, 21–22

  Homer, 129–30

  Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 2, 12, 70

  Horner, Jack, 79–80, 97

  Howard, Luke, 148

  Howard, Philip K., 22, 46

  HTML, 32

  humility:

  as response to limits of human comprehension, 155–56

  as response to technological complexity, 155–56, 158, 165, 167, 170, 174, 176

  Huxley, Thomas Henry, 113, 114

  HyperCard, 162–63

  IBM, 84, 169

  IBM 3083 computer, 37

  ideas, interconnectivity of, 142

  if-then statements, 80–81

  Iliad (Homer), 129–30

  infield fly rule, 172

  infrastructure, 66

  accretion in, 42, 100–101

  complexity of, 100–101

  interconnection of, 2

  interconnection of natural world and, 3–4

  of Internet, 101–2

  replacement of, 46

  Ingenuity Gap, The (Homer-Dixon), 2

  interaction, 65

  in cancer, 126

  in catastrophes, 126

  in complex systems, 36, 43–51, 62, 65, 146

  in financial sector, 126

  in legal system, 45–46

  of modules, 64

  in software, 44–45

  interconnectivity, 2, 14–15, 45–46, 103, 128, 135, 146

  in financial sector, 24–26, 62, 64

  ideas and, 142

  and limits of human comprehension, 78–79

  modules in, 63–65, 208

  in technological complexity, 2, 47–48

  unexpected behavior of, see unexpected behavior

  Internal Revenue Service, 37–38

  Internet, 47, 66

  evolving function of, 31–32

  physical infrastructure of, 101–2

  interoperability, 47–48

  optimal vs. maximum, 62–63, 64–65

  interpreters, of complex systems, 166–67, 229

  Ionia, 138–39

  iPad, 162

  Jeopardy! (TV show), 142, 169

  Jobs, Steve, 161

  Jones, Benjamin, 90

  July 8, 2015, system crashes on, 1, 4

  Kant Generator, 74

  Kasparov, Garry, 84

  Katsuyama, Brad, 189

  Kelly, Kevin, 83

  Kelly, Sean Dorrance, 173

  Kircher, Athanasius, 86

  Kirk, Chris, 32–33

  kluges:

  in biological systems, 119

  definition of, 33

  “good enough” in, 42

  as inevitable in complex systems, 34–36, 62–66, 127, 128, 154, 173–74

  in legal system, 33–34

  and limits of human comprehension, 42

  in software, 35

  knowledge:

  burden of, 90, 212

  explosion of, 86–88, 89–91, 142–43

  generalists and, 142–49

  limits to, 153–54

  Renaissance man and, 86–89, 93, 144

  specialization and, 85–86, 90–91

  Knowledge, The, 78

  Koopman, Philip, 10, 100, 201

  kosmos, 139–40

  language:

  cognitive processing of, 73–74

  grammar in, 54, 57–58

  hapax legomena in, 54–55, 206

  machine translation and, 57–58, 207

  power laws in, 55–56

  recursion in, 71–72, 75

  legacy code, legacy systems, 43, 223

  accretion and, 39–40, 198–99

  in biological systems, 118, 119–20

  inducing new functions from, 126, 198

  trauma of replacing, 39–42

  legal system:

  accretion in, 40–41, 46

  complexity in, 16, 85

  edge cases in, 59–61

  interaction in, 45–46

  kluges in, 33–34

  limits of comprehension and, 22

  Leibniz, Gottfried, 89

  Leidy, Joseph, 86

  Lewis, Michael, 189

  liberal arts, 145

  Library of Congress, 90

  limitative theorems, 175

  Linus’s law, 102

  logic, computer vs. human, 82–84

  logistics, 84

  London, cabdrivers in, 78

  long-tailed distributions, 55–56, 206

  “losing the bubble,” 70–71, 85

  Lovecraft, H. P., 40

  machine translation, 57–59, 207

  Macintosh computers, 161–63

  magic crayons, 162–63

  Maimonides, Moses, 151–52, 156

  Mandel, Michael, 46

  Mandelbrot, Benoit, 130

  mathematics, limitative theorems in, 175

  Mauries, Patrick, 87–88

  Maxwell, James Clerk, 114–15

  medicine, specialization in, 91

  memory, human, long-term, 74–77

  microbes, synthetic, 49

  Microsoft, 106–7

  Microsoft Office, 16

  Microsoft Research, 62

  Microsoft Windows, 35, 98

  Microsoft Word, 42

  Minecraft, 132

  “miscellaneous,” concept of, 108–10, 140–41, 143

  models, see scientific models

  modules, 63–65, 208

  Moravec, Hans, 230

  multitasking, 76

  mutagenesis, 124–25

  mutations, 109–10, 120

  Myers, Brad A., 159

  Myst, 162

  mystery:

  human comp
rehension and, 173–74

  under- vs. overemphasis on, 171

  wonder vs., 170–76

  Mythical Man-Month, The (Brooks), 38

  naches:

  definition of, 167–68

  as response to technological complexity, 168–69, 174

  natural world:

  complexity in, 107–10

  diversity of, 113–14

  interconnection of technology and, 3

  scientific study of, 107–10

  search for unity in, see physics thinking

  Netflix, 5, 59, 107, 126

  Newark, N.J., 46

  Newton, Isaac, 89, 112, 114, 152, 221

  New York Stock Exchange, 1, 187

  Niagara Falls Museum, 88

  nonlinear systems, 78–79

  Norman, Don, 158–59, 172

  Northeast Blackout (2003), 48, 128

  Norton, Quinn, 22

  Norvig, Peter, 56

  “novelty detection,” 127

  nuclear power plants, 126

  Oremus, Will, 189

  outliers, 76–77, 137

  see also edge cases

  Out of Control (Kelly), 83

  overclocking, 76

  Oxford English Dictionary, 55

  Pac-Man, 160

  Parkinson’s Law, 41

  particle accelerators, 2

  pattern-making mind, 146–47

  penicillin, 124

  percolation, 133–34

  personbyte, 212

  pharmaceutical research, 125

  Philosophical Transactions, 111

  philosophy of technology, 79–81

  Photoshop, 35

  physical systems, biological systems vs., 116–17

  physics thinking, 112–13, 121

  abstraction in, 115–16, 121–22, 128

  aesthetics and, 113, 114

  in ancient Greece, 138–40

  biological thinking vs., 114–16, 137–38, 142–43, 222

  technological complexity and, 122, 127–28

  unity in, 117

  Pinker, Steven, 73

  poliovirus, 49

  polymaths, 86–89, 93, 144

  Post, David, 61

  Postal Service, U.S., 34

  posterior hippocampus, 78

  power grid, cascading blackouts in, 47–48, 128

  power laws, 55–56, 206

  pre-Socratics, 138–40

  programmers, programming:

  computer vs. human counting in, 69–70, 209

  differences of scale and, 50–51

  languages in, 23

  lessons from, 160–63

  recursion and, 71

  as valuable skill, 43

  see also software

  Programming Pearls, 104–5

  progress, overoptimistic view of, 12–13

  progress bars, 159–60

  Progressive Policy Institute, 46

  Ptak, John, 147–48

  Quabbin Reservoir, 101

  radiation machines, overdose failures of, 67–69

  radical novelty, 3, 50

  railroads, 2

 

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