Koyomimonogatari Part 1

by Nisioisin

  “But they won’t catch on if they’re ‘too scary.’ You have to adjust the scariness to the right level, so they’re not too intense, and people want to tell them…”

  “Hm.”

  So you needed to draw a line, like the one between horror films and splatter films? They can’t be too extreme, or excessive, in other words.

  “In every period there are things that come into fashion and things that go out of fashion, and while unexpected things do become popular sometimes, I bet if you investigated those unpredictable trends, you’d find that they have a surprising amount of overlap.”

  “Like the three principles of pandemics?”

  “This time I think it really is more like the three pillars─with the caveat that there will always be exceptions to the rule…” This was something that Senjogahara, not Hanekawa, had told me. The phrasing was somewhat different, but I relayed the gist of it: “Easy to comprehend, easy to obtain, easy to share─I guess.”

  “Comprehend, obtain, share?”

  “Easy to comprehend, well, I think that one’s easy to understand even without an explanation. Something that involves a complicated, confusing procedure won’t spread readily. I think we can safely say that approaching something with the idea that ‘it’s fine if only the people who get it get it’ isn’t going to make anything go viral─”

  Conversely, if you want to popularize something complicated, or a complicated configuration, you have to come up with a way to get that across─to make it clear. Alternately, it becomes essential that people be able to use it as-is, without understanding its underlying complexity.

  TVs, cell phones, and computers, for instance─most people use them constantly without ever understanding how they work…

  “What about easy to obtain?”

  “In a word, I guess that means affordable…though it’s not only a question of price. For example, a diamond is a rare gemstone, so regardless of how cheap it becomes, it won’t be easy to obtain. And the last one, easy to share, means that it’s easy for everyone to enjoy together─however great something is, if anyone ends up monopolizing it, it won’t spread any further. Something that’s set up to reward you for sharing your work or your impressions with other people will become a trend much more easily─or be much easier to mold into a trend.”

  In that regard, the “charms” the swindler spread around were totally on point. I already touched on his first one’s free M.O., but that must’ve been why he homed in on “charms” that hinged on human relationships.

  Human relationships.

  A trend─calculated to debase human relationships.

  Another example of bad money driving out good…

  “Because a fad means people are getting crazy─even if it’s understood as ‘staying one step ahead’… Still,” I conceded, “if we’re bound by these basic principles, we’re diverging once again from our original objective of popularizing something in particular.”

  “I see, something besides the thing you were trying to popularize might take off, but it’s just impossible to control which way the wind blows? All you can do is trust in heaven?”

  Whichever way the wind blows─is that how it is? asked Sengoku.

  “…”

  Was that it?

  No, I don’t buy it.

  That swindler, Deishu Kaiki, leaving the swindles by which he makes his living up to divine providence─just didn’t jibe with my understanding of how he went about things. No way he was going to clasp the invisible hand of god─or even the hand of the devil.

  005

  The epilogue, or maybe, the punch line of this story.

  In the end, we never decided what kind of methods that swindler had used to popularize his “charms” within the middle school girl community─and in that sense, our meeting ended fruitlessly. I suppose it was still a little early for Sengoku to take on a subject like the state of trends in modern society.

  While we were still chatting, Karen and Tsukihi came home, and the meeting came to a close─then the four of us hung out for the first time in ages. Actually, Karen, who was a year ahead, hadn’t really hung out with Sengoku back in elementary school, so it might have been the first time that particular quartet had been assembled.

  Sengoku’s shyness skill was operating at maximum capacity, though it was canceled out by Karen’s amiable-to-a-fault interpersonal skills─but anyway.

  It wasn’t until a little later that I found out the truth about that swindler’s methods─specifically, it was the middle of August.

  August fourteenth.

  And how did it happen? I met with the man himself─met with him the way someone meets with an accident.

  Having promised never to return to our town a second time, he’d “returned for his first time.” Gimme a break and fuck off already.

  The main topic on that occasion was a couple of his fellow experts─but in the course of the conversation, I asked him about it.

  “Hm,” he said. “The ability to know which way the wind is blowing, the ability to control the wind─nope, that’s beyond me. Granted, that might also be a lie.”

  “…”

  Can’t trust this guy even an inch.

  Maybe it was stupid to even ask, I was thinking, but then he went on. “If you ask me, though, something like the ability to know which way the wind is blowing isn’t particularly important. Because the most conducive environment for a pandemic is a state of calm.”

  “C-Calm?”

  “That’s the vital thing for causing a pandemic in my opinion, Araragi.”

  “By ‘calm’ you mean like─the absence of wind?”

  “While one thing is popular, another thing can’t be─strictly speaking, I suppose you could say that even if something else tried to break through, it wouldn’t be able to… So if I wanted to popularize something specific, I’d be sure to choose the right time and place even if I couldn’t choose the target.”

  “…”

  “Rumors last for seventy-five days─then for those seventy-five days, you have to give up on creating a trend. Take this town. I wouldn’t have been able to do anything over spring break because rumors of a ‘vampire’ had captured everyone’s imagination. No sense in trying to take on an overwhelming number-one smash─and when I say overwhelming, I mean the virus would’ve overwhelmed any other virus. So once that rumor had run its course─I injected my own into the empty space, the hungry space, it had left behind.”

  It seemed so obvious once he said it.

  In other words, a pandemic will break out where there’s a vacuum─or is more likely to do so, anyway.

  “Ghost stories and the word on the street, urban legends─and baseless rumors, they all run rampant when people are emotionally distraught. Which is the same as saying when people have nothing anchoring their lives. A trendless time, in other words─now Araragi. What kind of person do you think a swindler targets, who’s the mark? Think about it.”

  “Th-Think about it? That’s not something I want to think about.”

  “Humor me.”

  “Nothing funny about that question. Anyway…rich people, I guess? Don’t you go after the wealthy?”

  “Just what an upstanding person would think. But satisfied people are surprisingly hard to deceive─people who have financial leeway also have emotional leeway. So swindlers target those who’re unsatisfied with their lot, who don’t have that room to breathe.”

  “Which is why you set your sights on middle school girls the last time you were here?”

  Or.

  Going further back─on Senjogahara’s family, while they were agonizing over their daughter’s illness.

  “That’s right. A mind filled with anxiety is a mind ripe for deception. Because that person doesn’t have the leeway to worry about whether you’re lying to them or not,” pontificated the swindler, without any hint of remorse. “You were saying that in preparation for my con, I popularized ‘charms’ that would debase human relationships─but in
fact it was just the opposite. Their relationships were already debased, so they jumped all over my ‘charms.’”

  A state of calm is not necessarily a state of asepsis.

  In fact, a virus with the potential to cause an explosive pandemic is always lying dormant just below the surface─said the swindler.

  “Are you saying─it was their own fault they got duped?”

  “When you put it like that, it makes me not want to put it like that. How about we just blame it on the zeitgeist? If you want to understand the kind of chaotic situation that makes you wonder, ‘Why is this even popular?’ or ‘How did that get so popular?’ it’s really the vacuum that precedes the chaos you should be thinking about.”

  “The vacuum─”

  “The darkness, you might say. So let me give you a piece of advice: if ‘something inexplicable’ becomes trendy─keep an eye on the zeitgeist. Keep an eye on the very ground beneath your feet. Assume that something is fucked─assume that the situation is critical. Whether it’s a human scheme or a natural occurrence─it’s happening because you live in an age enveloped by darkness.”

  “Enveloped by─darkness.”

  “The circumstances that make it easy for a fad to break out are pretty much the same as those that make it easy for a riot to break out─when there’s no stable footing, you end up getting swept up by the tide. Ah, but there’s no easier time to be a guy like me,” Kaiki observed, ominously, before continuing, “Now, Araragi. Having taught you such an important trade secret, I must demand an additional fee from you.”

  “…”

  I’d already paid this guy for information about a certain two-man cell of experts─but because I’d foolishly asked a question, some kind of option had kicked in.

  “I know you’ve got your emergency fund in the inside pocket of your jacket.”

  He’d seen right through me.

  Hmm.

  The wind isn’t blowing my way today.

  001

  There’s no question that the path Karen Araragi treads, the path of karate, is a steep and severe one. But for a slacker like myself, the very idea of having such a clear path laid out before me is enviable. If it were anyone but my little sister, I would be eyeing her jealously; since it’s my little sister, however, I just avert my eyes awkwardly. Nevertheless, I’d be lying if I said I never tried to imagine just what it would feel like, what it would be like, to walk unfalteringly down a ramrod straight one-way street, a highway even, laid out before me with no twists or turns, no need for a map.

  To know I was striding down the right road.

  Both feet firmly on the ground.

  Proceeding step by steady step every day.

  The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step─and on a journey of a hundred miles, ninety miles is only halfway. In a world where darkness is always one step ahead of you, it’s an untold blessing just to be able to see the path you travel down, even if it’s a path without an end.

  Darkness.

  The Darkness.

  For her there’s no such thing.

  I said I’d be jealous if it were anyone but my little sister, but by the same token, if it weren’t my little sister, I might fall in love with that level of humanity─and yet, the kind of life she lives always comes with a disclaimer.

  Precisely because her path is so clearly laid out before her─think how shocking it would be to lose sight of it. I can’t help envisioning that horrible eventuality as well.

  I’ve asked her.

  If you were in a situation where you had to give up karate, what would you do?

  A situation where she had to give it up.

  A situation where she had to give up.

  Where she had to leave that path─that highway down which she walks.

  I really wasn’t scheming to upset my sister by bringing up this statistically improbable, exceptional eventuality─I’m not such a mean person. I was only trying to show my concern for her by mulling over my misgivings about a real possibility.

  And it is a very real possibility.

  When you train morning, noon, and night in a combat sport like karate, there’s always the possibility of sustaining a grievous, career-ending injury─or the love of your life might implore you to give up such a dangerous activity. Maybe you end up in a position where you have to focus all your attention on your studies─however clear the road before you, however well-maintained and spectacular, there’s always the chance of mechanical trouble.

  With the engine, or the electrical system.

  There’s potential trouble everywhere─however bright the path, however dazzlingly the sun shines down upon it, that doesn’t necessarily mean the future is bright.

  The Darkness isn’t only ahead.

  It can also be─inside.

  If you stalled out on your path─what would you do?

  You find yourself in a pickle sooner or later.

  But Karen’s unruffled, confident response was simply, “You’re wrong, big brother. Because wherever I drop is the finish line. Getting to the point where I can’t go any further is the goal.”

  To walk until you drop, without ever stalling out.

  In other words, she expressed a fierce determination to forge ahead until she fell.

  002

  “This is the tree, big brother,” said Karen─pointing to a tree behind the dojo where she had led me. Hanekawa probably could’ve identified the variety at a single glance, but unfortunately I’m ill-versed in both horticulture and forestry, so “tree” is the best I can do.

  Whether “ill-versed” is a generally accepted opposite for the idiomatic term “well-versed” is a whole other question─the only other thing I can say about it is that it was old and almost totally leafless.

  “This tree, huh?” was my initial response to Karen’s words─I didn’t know how else to react. “Well─it’s definitely a tree. It’s…slenderer than I expected. From what you told me, I was envisioning something a little sturdier…”

  “I didn’t say anything like that.”

  “But this is the tree that’s in your way?”

  “I didn’t say anything like that either, that’s horrible. It’s all them others who are treating this tree like it’s in the way─I’m its ally.”

  “Uh huh…”

  All them others struck me as an unexpectedly pungent phrase.

  I also found myself wondering if trees really have allies and enemies, but that aside, it seemed clear that Karen, my bigger little sister, had a tremendous amount of empathy for this tree.

  Empathy.

  My richly sentimental little sisters, in particular this older one, had a tendency to pour their excess emotions into literally anything─so if you didn’t watch what you said, they could end up casually throwing their support behind anything or anyone.

  Which is precisely why, as one wing (?) of the Fire Sisters, this kid reigned over the middle schoolers by popular writ─but one false move and that personality could also prove terribly precarious.

  So I never take anything she says at face value. I always have to listen with a cool head─as I pondered this, I reappraised the tree that stood there before me.

  “…”

  Late September.

  I had come along with my little sister Karen Araragi to the town dojo where she trains─a privately owned dojo where they teach karate. A dojo run by a “master” of practical combat karate, where for many years already Karen had been devoting herself to her training.

  The melee skills she cultivated there had been demonstrated to her older brother on many occasions, and in that sense I couldn’t set foot in that place without a certain bitterness… But under the circumstances, I had no choice.

  That is, setting aside my bitterness for a moment, I was definitely interested in darkening the dojo’s door at least once─because I had a hankering to meet the person whom Karen, the same Karen who turned up her nose at any kind of etiquette or manners, called “sensei,” to find out
just what kind of a person this sensei might be.

  Half because I wanted to say thanks for taking such good care of Karen, and half because I wanted to complain, What the hell kind of skills are you teaching my little sister?

  So after an hour and a half, my heart pounding, I reached the dojo that Karen could dash to in just under an hour. But unfortunately the sensei wasn’t in.