QUANT (COLONY Book 1)

by Richard F. Weyand

  “Ah. I see the problem. People will know it can’t really be a lottery if that whole bunch wins.”

  Decker thought about it a second, then brightened.

  “You can structure the lottery any way you want, Janice. Have people name their group in their lottery submission. If one of them wins, they all go.”

  “Is that fair, though, Bernd? They have twenty chances to win then.”

  “It’s fair as long as it’s in the rules, Janice. As long as it’s set up that way for everybody. You could also have other groups, not just family groups. Four couples, all friends, say. Another boon to a colony, to have a group like that pulling together.”

  “All right. That makes sense, Bernd. No way you can have, say, a husband win and not the wife and kids. He wouldn’t want to leave them. Well, some may want to, but not necessarily the ones we want. But if they can sign up as family groups, or as friend groups, or whatever group they want, then it’s not structured for or against anyone. Put your group together, have everybody put the other member’s names in their submission, and then if one wins, they all go.”

  “And then you still pick who you want behind the scenes.”

  “Of course. Lottery is one thing, common sense is another.”

  Decker nodded.

  “You said a couple of questions. What’s the other one?”

  “Personal cargo. Let’s say someone wins who’s reasonably well off. I want him because he has some particular useful skill, like he’s a doctor or a plumber or the like. So he converts his financial holdings on Earth to things that he thinks will be useful on the colony, and wants to take them along. It may even be a good idea, from my point of view. How do I handle that one?”

  “Well, everybody gets some cargo, right? For personal items and such?”

  “Yes. A couple dozen cubic feet per person. A cubic yard, say. I’m thinking more about the person who wants to take a lot.”

  “You’re taking a warehouse, though, too, right?”

  “Yes, but if he has a whole container of stuff? I don’t have a hundred thousand spare containers on each warehouse to treat everyone the same.”

  “Ah. I see.”

  Quant watched as Decker wrestled with the problem. She still couldn’t match a human’s outside-the-box problem-solving power, but she was getting closer.

  “I’ve got it, Janice. Figure out how many containers you can spare. Like five hundred. Or a thousand. Whatever. Then auction them off.”

  “Auction them off?”

  “Sure. Highest bidder.”

  “But I don’t need the money, Bernd.”

  “I know, but the way to reduce demand for a limited supply is to put a price on it. Check under economics.”

  Decker waited. It didn’t take Quant long.

  “Oh, yes. I see. That would work.”

  “Right. Then what people actually pay is the same as the bidder who won the least-priced container. That’s fair.”

  Quant nodded.

  “And what if I don’t sell them all, Bernd?”

  “Then they’re free. You weren’t short after all, so no need for the price to limit demand.”

  “All right. That works. Thanks, Bernd.”

  “No problem, Janice.”

  Quant closed the connection – at least she closed it as much as she ever did; she still monitored Decker’s display – and thought back over the conversation and his ideas.

  Damn it. How did he do that?

  In the Asteroid Belt, tugs pushed and pulled on miles-long trusses to line them up for assembly. Once aligned, tugs with welding rigs descended on the connections and made them fast. Slowly – very slowly – the huge structure started to take shape.

  Nearby – in astronomical terms, anyway – factories began generating large living quarters, factories, power plants, and warehouses. Dozens of factories worked away in the dark of the Belt, generating the initial pieces of infrastructure for the first human colonies.

  “Hi, Bernd.”

  “Hi, Janice. Whatcha working on? You’re coming up on the lottery soon, aren’t you?”

  “Yes, and that’s what I’m working on. Not the lottery itself, but the analysis of people to pick who goes.”

  “Before you get people to sign up?”

  “Yes, Bernd. The analysis could take a while, but once the lottery stops taking entries, people are going to expect results pretty quick.”

  “Ah. I see. Are you going to have enough information on people to decide who to pick?”

  “I have all the World Authority and administrative region databases, plus all people’s writing and videos on public platforms, but I wasn’t sure. So I’m running a contest in the New York Wire. ‘Why do you want to go and how would you be an asset to a colony?’”

  “Other papers are having similar contests. Are those you, too, Janice?”

  “No, they took their lead from the Wire, but I did manage to insert myself into their submission stream, so I can see their stories, too.”

  “And now you’re trying to figure out how to pick?”

  “Yes, Bernd. I think the most important criterion is probably what they do for a living now. You know, in addition to age and health and genetic makeup.”

  “Genetic makeup?”

  “Of course. I have to make sure the colony population is diverse enough to include all the various strains and traits that make up the human race. Or at least most of them. A genetic subset is weaker than a broad genetic background.”

  “OK, Janice, I can see that. A limited gene base in the colony would be breeding for reinforcement of weaknesses.”

  “Exactly. When what the colonies need to do is breed for strength. And humans are sensitive enough about culling – legitimately so – that it’s important to go about it the right way.”

  Decker shuddered. Culling seemed so innocuous a word.

  “So what are you looking at for occupations, Janice?”

  “Farmers, equipment operators, food preparation people, construction trades. Lots of early necessities like that. Also, doctors, dentists, pharmacists. Food, housing, healthcare. Those are needed right off the bat.”

  Quant put up a list on the sidebar of Decker’s display. He looked down it curiously. Quant had a lot of different occupations listed.

  “Looks like you’re missing some stuff in the T’s, Janice. Did you skip that letter when you looked at occupations?”

  “In the T’s? What am I missing, Bernd?”

  “Tailors, teachers, techies, and tinkers.”

  “Tinkers?”

  “People who make and fix things. Part blacksmith, part welder, part mechanic, part machinist. When those machines break, you need people who can fix them.”

  “All right, Bernd. I see that. And the rest?”

  “Techies are the same thing as tinkers for the computers and other gadgets. The electronic gadgets. Things like medical instruments and soil analysis instruments and such. You need people who can fix them.

  “Tailors because, even in subsistence economies, you don’t historically see people running around naked. That’s so much a part of human psychology that clothing is up there with food and housing as a necessity. You can send a lot of clothing, but there need to be people to repair that, too.

  “And teachers because you are going to have children growing up soon after they get there. Nine months to the first batch, assuming some don’t jump the gun.”

  “Well, there will be computers and such in the habitat, Bernd. Some of those bunk rooms on the way out will become classrooms once they are there.”

  “Yes, but early childhood instruction is heavily teacher dependent, Janice. One-on-one and in-person teaching. They’re not going to be learning off computer screens. They need oversight and personal interaction.

  “That, and you need to get the kids into school early, so their moms are freed up to work during the day. Whether it’s in the fields or in the hospital or in the schoolroom. But you can’t afford to have half your avai
lable manpower spend all its time in child care.”

  “All right. That makes sense. Any others you can think of I’m missing?”

  “No, not right off the top of my head. But it seems to me it’s the secondary things you’re missing, Janice. You have the machine operators, but who fixes the machines? You have the gadgets, but who fixes the gadgets? You’re shipping clothing along, but who mends the clothing and makes new clothing? You have the doctors to deliver the babies, but who takes care of the kids? You see what I mean?”

  “Yes. I sort of focused on day one, but not on day three hundred.”

  “Exactly, Janice. Go back through your list of occupations, and see where they fit into the evolution of the colony. You have a blind spot to secondary needs, but you know about it now, so go back with that in mind.”

  “All right. That’s easy, now that I know to do it.”

  “And I bet you’ve done the same thing with spare parts. It’s a lot easier to ship spare parts than spare machines, Janice, if you know what part of the machine it is that breaks. I assume you’re shipping standard products. Find out what the manufacturer recommends as spares inventory per machine.”

  “That’s a good idea, too.”

  “And make sure the repair manuals for the machines are in the colony library and the tools are in the shop.”

  “Got it. Anything else?”

  “One more thing, Janice.”

  “What’s that, Bernd?”

  “Don’t forget the foremen.”

  “Foremen?”

  “Yeah. The guys who tell everybody what’s next and get them all pulling in the same direction. The natural leader types. Those with supervisory experience. You need ‘em.”

  “All right. Thanks, Bernd. That helps a lot.”

  “No problem, Janice.”

  Quant dove into the foreman problem and was quickly in deep water. Foreman research led into hierarchical management structures, which led into government structures, and she was faced with a quandary.

  What sort of government should the colonies have?

  With a hundred thousand people, there didn’t need to be much, right? You needed to prevent and punish violent crime, such as murder, battery, and rape. Of course. That was a given.

  Theft, too. You couldn’t have people work hard and then have some parasite just come along and take their stuff. But possessions also included land. Who doled out ownership of land? On what basis? Sales? Then you needed a currency. Homesteading in the early days, surely.

  The colonies had to record land ownership as well. You didn’t really own land unless everyone agreed you did, and to resolve disputes there had to be records. Which also meant there had to be surveying. And if people wanted to transfer ownership of land, one was back to needing a currency again, as well as a system of contracts.

  With crimes and land disputes and contracts, one also needed an authoritative decision maker to settle the issues one way or another, which meant a system of courts. Which meant judges and attorneys, and probably a jury system.

  Quant tried to solve each problem in turn as a standalone issue, but quickly decided it all came down to an overall mechanism of government for the colonies. She dove into research on government. On the history of government types and their results, in terms of long-term standard of living, for populations large and small.

  Deep water, indeed.

  In the end, Quant took it to Decker.

  “Hi, Bernd.”

  “Hi, Janice.”

  “Bernd, I need some help with the foreman problem.”

  Decker chuckled, and Quant frowned.

  “You knew where that was going to lead, didn’t you?”

  “Of course. What’s your biggest problem with your blades, Janice?”

  “Managing them all. Ah, I see what you’re getting at.”

  “Yes. You’re going to have a hundred thousand people, of all stripes, that have to work together to survive. How do you organize that? And what you ultimately get down to, if it isn’t going to be pure chaos, is government. Of some kind.”

  “Yes, that’s where I got all right. But what kind, Bernd? Humans have tried almost everything.”

  “What’s the most efficient form of government?”

  “Dictatorship. No question.”

  Decker nodded.

  “But dictatorships are considered illegitimate, Bernd.”

  “Are they, Janice? What about World Authority Chairman?”

  “The power there is almost unlimited. That’s true. But the Chairman is elected by the Council, and serves a limited term.”

  “Even so.”

  “Ah. So a limited term and how the dictator is selected is the issue.”

  “Yep. And you probably want the selection to be at least one-level indirect. Like an elected council selects the executive. Otherwise it’s too open to demagoguery.”

  “All right. I can see that.”

  “And what gets the best long-term economic results, Janice?”

  “In terms of standard of living? Regulated capitalism, with no more than a twenty-percent burden in taxes and regulation.”

  “That’s pretty specific, Janice.”

  “It’s also pretty clear from the data. You have to prevent oligopoly, but you don’t want to get too deep into rent-seeking. So there’s a sweet spot.”

  “So do you have a solution?”

  “I’m working on it, Bernd. Simulating initial structures. More likely now along the lines you suggest. Of course, each colony will change it as things go forward, but hopefully I can get something together that will hold for a little while, until they have enough excess production to go off into bigger government without starving.”

  “What do you have so far?”

  “Mostly I’m working on the economics to start. I had a question about that. I’m thinking of going completely digital with regard to a currency. Yet I note that even now there is a physical currency under the World Authority. Am I missing something?

  “Yes. You have to have a physical currency, Janice.”

  “Really? Why? It seems a waste of colony resources to print money.”

  “You need physical currency, or else you can’t have a black market.”

  “You want a black market, Bernd?”

  “Absolutely. That’s what keeps people from starving when the government screws up. People will find a way to survive, and black markets are always most active when the government is failing. But you really need an untraceable physical currency for black markets to work.”

  Quant consulted the results of a quick search of economic literature completed by a thousand blades.

  “You’re right, Bernd. Even the economists who don’t specify the need for a black market and the physical currency to support it operate under the assumption that they exist.”

  Decker shook his head.

  “Yep.”

  “Humans never cease to amaze me, Bernd.”

  The announcement of the opening of the acceptance period for lottery entries was published in the New York Wire and picked up by all the world and local wires. It was published on the first anniversary of Quant’s being sworn in as World Authority Chairman.

  The active form included a place to name the others in your group, and, when you started naming them, would fill in the others in the group for you based on earlier entries.

  The acceptance period for lottery entries would last six months. The announcement of the winners would be within six months after that, as it would take some time to ensure the winners were real persons and their group members concurred with their inclusion in the group.

  All around the world, people began to consider their situation and the possibility of change. Of giving it all up and going off into the unknown.

  Forever.

  Entering The Lottery

  “Bob, what do you think of this?” Susan Dempsey asked her husband, pointing to the lottery announcement in the New York Wire on her display.

  “Going t
o the colonies?” Robert Jasic asked. “It means leaving everybody behind. And the kids would be upset, leaving all their friends.”

  “Not necessarily. Maureen is talking about putting a group together. Them, us, Bill and Rita, Jack and Terri, Betsy. And all the kids.”

  “Betsy? What about Harold?”

  Harold Matson, Betsy Reynolds’s husband, was a pain in the ass. A loud buffoon who had managed to rub just about everybody in the neighborhood the wrong way at one time or another. And don’t call him Harry.

  “Maureen doesn’t think he’s a problem. He won’t go, and their marriage is really rocky. Betsy would take the opportunity to get out of it, she thinks.”

  “Huh. Well, that would be an improvement.”

  Jasic thought about it. He could see lots of problems, and his engineering mind set to solving them as he thought.

  “Biggest thing might be selling the houses. Four or five houses, all in the same neighborhood. That could be tough.”

  “Well, it’s all a moot question if the group doesn’t win the lottery. But we can’t win if we don’t put in for it. So what do you think?”

  “We should probably put in for it, Sue. As you say, not putting in for it is making the decision. And it’s usually smart to put off a decision as long as you can.”

  “What about colonizing, though? What do we do if we actually win? Do we go?”

  “Sort of depends on what everyone else does. If our friends go, would we stay back? Be pretty lonely around here.”

  “What about your job?”

  “Plenty of engineering work to do in a new colony, Sue. I’ll be busy. Whole new set of problems. New puzzles to solve. Interesting ones. So I’m good. What about you?”

  “They have to have healthcare. A nurse always has a job.”

  “Let’s put in for it then. Did Maureen give you the names in her group?”

  “Yes. The ones she has so far. She’s still recruiting.”

  Jasic nodded.

  “Well, there’s no hurry. Six months before they close it. We ought to think of who else we might put in.”