The Levelling
Page 36
3. K. O’Rourke, “Europe and the Causes of Globalization, 1790 to 2000,” in Europe and Globalization, ed. H. Kierzkowski, 64–86.
4. Findlay and O’Rourke, Power and Plenty, 405.
5. Findlay and O’Rourke, Power and Plenty, 3.
6. Findlay and O’Rourke, Power and Plenty, 381.
7. D. Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? (Institute for International Economics, 1997), 7.
8. Rajan and Zingales, “The Great Reversals.”
9. Credit Suisse Research Institute, Credit Suisse Investment Returns Yearbook 2018, https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/publications.html.
10. An NBER working paper by Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan, and Jang Wang gives a very good overview of the development of China’s capital market development. Hu, Pan, and Wang, “The Chinese Capital Market.”
11. “Trump’s Trade Folly,” editorial, Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2018.
12. Analysis drawn from data in Robert Shiller’s historic stock market data found at http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm.
13. See, for example, Bernanke, “The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression.”
14. One of Ben Bernanke’s fields of expertise is the Great Depression; see, for example, his Essays on the Great Depression.
15. Buckles, Hungermann, and Lugauer, “Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?.”
16. Freedman, The Future of War, 264.
17. R. Dornbusch, “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy 84 (1976): 1161–1176; R. Dornbusch, “Exchange Rate Expectations and Monetary Policy,” Journal of International Economics 6 (1976): 231–244.
18. A. Pierce, “The Queen Asks Why No One Saw the Credit Crunch Coming,” Daily Telegraph, November 5, 2008.
19. P. Krugman, “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?,” New York Times Magazine, September 2, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html.
20. P. Romer, “The Trouble with Macroeconomics,” working paper, September 14, 2016, 15, https://paulromer.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/WP-Trouble.pdf; N. Taleb, “The Intellectual Yet Idiot,” Incerto (blog), Medium, September 16, 2018, https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.hicytcdpb; K. Warsh, “The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking,” Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-federal-reserve-needs-new-thinking-1472076212.
21. D. Vines and S. Willis, “The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project: An Analytical Assessment,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 34, nos. 1–2 (January 5, 2018): 1–42.
22. Many of the articles on this topic by the Financial Times’s Gillian Tett are useful here; see, for example, G. Tett, “An Anthropologist in the Boardroom,” Financial Times, April 21, 2017.
23. On development economics, see, for example, Rodrik and Rosenzweig, Handbook of Development Economics. And Sir Thomas Bingham’s The Rule of Law is worth a read.
24. Berlin, The Power of Ideas.
25. One of the Santa Fe Institute’s leading scholars, Geoffrey West, gives a good account of it: “What a fantastic melting pot. There is almost no hierarchy, and its size is sufficiently small that everyone on-site gets to know everyone else, the archaeologist, economist, social scientist, ecologist and physicist all freely interact on a daily basis to talk, speculate, bullshit and seriously collaborate on questions big and small.” West, Scale, 433.
26. N. Wade, A Troublesome Inheritance: Genes, Race, and Human History (Penguin, 2014). This debate may have already begun; see G. Coop, M. Eisen, R. Nielsen, et al., letter to the editor, New York Times, August 8, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/books/review/letters-a-troublesome-inheritance.html?
Chapter 4: The Levellers
1. Rees, The Leveller Revolution, 210. The complete quotation goes, “For really I thinke that the poorest hee that is in England hath a life to live as the greatest he; and therefore truly, Sir, I thinke itt’s cleare, that everyman that is to live under a Government ought first by his owne consent to putt himself under that Government; and I doe thinke that the poorest man in England is not at all bound in a strict sense to that government that he hath not had a voice to put himself under.”
2. Rees, The Leveller Revolution, 37.
3. See Rees, “Leveller Organization and the Dynamic of the English Revolution.”
4. The A. S. P. Woodhouse version of the transcripts lists the many debates and petitions of the Levellers. See Woodhouse, Puritanism and Liberty.
5. Le Claire, cited in Mendle, The Putney Debates of 1647, 19–35.
6. Mendle, The Putney Debates of 1647, 268.
7. Overton’s lengthy pamphlet An Arrow Against All Tyrants is also worth a read. Overton especially expresses a doctrine of self-directed rights and individual responsibility: “To every individual in nature is given an individual property by nature, not to be invaded or usurped by any: for everyone as he is himselfe, so he has a self-propriety, else could he not be himselfe.” Both A Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens and An Arrow Against All Tyrants can be found at the Constitution Society website: A Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, http://www.constitution.org/lev/eng_lev_04.htm; An Arrow Against All Tyrants, http://www.constitution.org/lev/eng_lev_05.htm.
8. Overton, Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, 3.
9. Overton, Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, 5.
10. Overton, Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, 5.
11. Overton, Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, 6.
12. Pettit, Republicanism.
13. Overton, Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, 12.
14. Overton, Remonstrance of Many Thousand Citizens, 14.
15. “An Agreement of the People for a Firm and Present Peace upon Grounds of Common Right and Freedom,” October 28, 1647, Constitution Society, http://www.constitution.org/lev/eng_lev_07.htm.
16. Woodhouse, Puritanism and Liberty, 444.
17. “An Agreement of the Free People of England” (third agreement), May 1, 1649, Constitution Society, http://www.constitution.org/eng/agreepeo.htm. Hereafter “Third Agreement of the People.”
18. “Third Agreement of the People.”
19. “Third Agreement of the People.”
20. For example, Richard Beeman writes that the Levellers did not want to abolish all distinctions in society, only hereditary political institutions, making Parliament more representative and accountable to constituents and to the rule of law. Beeman, The Varieties of Political Experience in Eighteenth-Century America, 16.
21. “Third Agreement of the People.”
22. On probity in office, the agreement states, “That the next, and all future Representatives shall exactly keep the publike Faith, and give ful satisfaction, for all securitie, debts, arrears or damages, (justly chargeable) out of the publike Treasury; and shall confirm and make good all just publike Purchases and Contracts that have, been, or shall bee made; save that the next Representative may confirm or make null in part, or in whole, all gifts of Lands, Moneys, Offices, or otherwise made by the present Parliament, to any Member of the House of Commons, or to any of the Lords, or to any of the attendants of either of them.” “Third Agreement of the People.”
23. “The Petition of 11 Sept. 1648: Anon, The Petition of 11 September 1648,” An Anthology of Leveller Tracts: Agreements of the People, Petitions, Remonstrances, and Declarations (1646–1659), July 14, 2016, Online Library of Liberty, https://oll.libertyfund.org/pages/leveller-anthology-agreements.
24. “Third Agreement of the People.”
25. Daniel Rolph, “‘Levellers’ in American Politics,” History Hits (blog), Historical Society of Pennsylvania, May 6, 2013, https://hsp.org/blogs/history-hits/levellers-in-american-politics.
26. Woodhouse, Puritanism and Liberty, 335.
27. Analysis drawn from data at “Religion,” Gallup, http://www.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx; “Religion and Public Life,” Pew Research Center, http:// www.pewforum.org
/; “The Future of World Religions,” Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project, http://www.globalreligiousfutures.org/.
28. Paraphrase of Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa, The Leopard, translated by Archibald Colquhoun (Pantheon Books, 1960), 40. The exact English translation is “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.”
29. Hill, The World Turned Upside Down, 361.
30. Overton, quoted in Rees, “Leveller Organization and the Dynamic of the English Revolution,” 177.
31. Inglehart and Norris, “Trump, Brexit and the Rise of Populism”; Mudde, “The Populist Zeitgeist.”
32. K. Popper, “The Open Society and Its Enemies Revisited,” Economist, April 23, 1988, as reprinted at “From the Archives: The Open Society and Its Enemies Revisited,” Democracy in America, Economist, January 31, 2016, https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2016/01/31/from-the-archives-the-open-society-and-its-enemies-revisited.
33. Lindsay, quoted in Mendle, The Putney Debates of 1647, 245.
34. L. S. Feuer, Spinoza and the Rise of Liberalism (Transaction, 1987).
35. M. Loughlin, “The Constitutional Thought of the Levellers,” 2.
36. Another interesting take on civil wars comes in Francis Fukuyama’s elaboration of the echo of civil war through English history. His thesis, which may also inform the debate on Brexit, is that civil wars in England came to a halt in the late seventeenth century after the Glorious Revolution because from that point on people started to believe in the law, and the rule of law began to flourish. See Fukuyama, “The Last English Civil War,” Daedalus 147, no. 1 (Winter 2018): 15–24, https://www.amacad.org/multimedia/pdfs/publications/daedalus/winter2018/18_Winter_Daedalus_03_Fukuyama.pdf.
37. J. W. Müller, What Is Populism?, 3.
Chapter 5: Can They Do It?
1. For example, Mudde, “The Study of Populist Radical Right Parties.”
2. Funke, Schularick, and Trebesch, “Going to Extremes.”
3. Analysis based on data at National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, https://www.start.umd.edu/.
4. The Economist Intelligence Unit, “Democracy Index 2017: Free Speech Under Attack,” January 31, 2018, www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?camp aignid=DemocracyIndex2017.
5. “BTI 2018: Global Findings,” Transformation Index BTI, Bertelsmann Stiftung, accessed February 13, 2019, www.bti-project.org/en/key-findings/global/.
6. Rovny, “Where Do Radical Right Parties Stand?,” 1–26.
7. “2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey,” Chesdata, accessed February 13, 2019, www.chesdata.eu/2014-chapel-hill-expert-survey/. Published analysis available via J. Polk et al., “Explaining the Salience of Anti-elitism and Reducing Political Corruption for Political Parties in Europe with the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey Data,” Research & Politics 4 (January 1, 2017): 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168016686915.
8. Mair, Ruling the Void, 67.
9. A. Blinder, “Is Government Too Political?” Foreign Affairs, November–December 1997, 115–126.
10. Van Reybrouck, Against Elections, 12.
11. Van Reybrouck, Against Elections, 43.
12. Deschouwer, New Parties in Government; Bolleyer and Bytzek, “Origins of Party Formation and New Party Success in Advanced Democracies”; Harmel and Robertson, “Formation and Success of New Parties.”
13. “2018 Edelman Trust Barometer,” February 2018, p. 16, https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2018-10/2018_Edelman_Trust_Barometer_Global_Report_FEB.pdf.
14. Credit Suisse Research Institute, “Emerging Consumer Survey 2018,” March 2018, https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/ecs-2018.pdf.
15. R. B. Reich, Locked in the Cabinet (Vintage, 1998), 28.
Chapter 6: Great Countries or Strong Countries?
1. I did not quite make up the character of Katherine Chidley. One of the most important female Levellers, Katherine Chidley was born in 1616 and was perhaps one of the most eloquent and prominent women in public life in mid-seventeenth-century England. At a time when women had no rights, she was one of the very first to broach the topic of the independence of women. She wrote widely on religion and authored petitions arguing for the Levellers’ positions. In addition, she ran a business (selling socks to the army) and was the mother of seven children.
2. This particular statement is from the 2016 Hangzhou (China) Summit. See “G20 Hangzhou Summit,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, updated September 5, 2016, www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ec/page3e_000583.html.
3. The Brookings Institution Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery (Tiger) at www.brookings.edu is a useful resource here.
4. World Bank, “Global Economic Prospects: The Turning of the Tide?,” World Bank Flagship Report, June 2018, http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects.
5. National Bureau of Economic Research, “US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions,” http://www.nber.org/cycles.html.
6. L. Summers, “The Age of Secular Stagnation: What It Is and What to Do About It,” Foreign Affairs, March–April, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-02-15/age-secular-stagnation. In addition, a speech by Claudio Borio, chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, examines some of the financial and monetary factors associated with low interest rates and, by association, low growth. Borio, “Secular Stagnation or Financial Cycle Drag.”
7. Gordon, “Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?”
8. Bloom, Jones, van Reenen, and Webb, “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?,” 1.
9. The Long-Term Productivity database at the Banque de France is a very useful resource here; see “About the Database,” http://www.longtermproductivity.com/about.html.
10. Eichengren, Park, and Shin, “The Global Productivity Slump,” 1–8.
11. A good treatment of the impact of robotics on work comes from philosopher Michael Sandel; see Sandel, “Would Life Be Better if Robots Did All the Work,” The Public Philosopher, BBC Radio 4 program, broadcast March 7, 2017, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08gxndc.
12. A. Haldane, “Work, Wages and Monetary Policy,” speech at National Science and Media Museum Bradford, June 21, 2017, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2017/work-wages-and-monetary-policy.
13. Many of those involved in the original Boston Tea Party were descendants of the Levellers, both intellectually and also in terms of family connections. Volo, The Boston Tea Party.
14. Analysis drawn from data at Overview of BLS Productivity Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/bls/productivity.htm.
15. Analysis drawn from data at OECD Data site, https://data.oecd.org.
16. Maestas, Mulle, and Powell, “The Effect of Population Ageing on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity.”
17. Gagnon, Johannsen, and Lopez-Salido, “Understanding the New Normal.”
18. IMF World Economic Outlook, “Too Slow for Too Long,” International Monetary Fund, April 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/; “GDP Long-Term Forecast,” OECD Data, https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdp-long-term-forecast.htm.
19. This IMF Staff Discussion Note is worth looking at: V. Gaspar, M. Obstfeld, R. Sahay, et al., “Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space Is Constrained: A Comprehensive, Consistent, and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy,” September 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1609.pdf.
20. Elizabeth Drew, “A Country Breaking Down,” New York Review of Books, February 25, 2016, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/25/infrastructure-country-breaking-down/; Woetzel, Garemo, Mischke, et al., “Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps.”
21. Ansar, Flyvbjerg, Budzier, and Lunn, “Does Infrastructure Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility?,” 360–390.
22. For example, see the website of the National Infrastructure Commission, www.nic.org.uk.
23. Cred
it Suisse Research Institute, Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018, https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/publications.html.
24. Eichengreen, Mehl, and Chitu, “Mars or Mercury?” Eichengreen has written some splendid material on currencies and is recognized as the academic expert in this area. Two works that are worth examining are Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939 (Oxford University Press, 1992) and Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar (Oxford University Press, 2012).
25. Perón is quoted here from A. Velasco, “How Economic Populism Works,” Project Syndicate, February 7, 2017, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commen tary/economic-populism-temporary-success-by-andres-velasco-2017-02?referrer =/FzT7pl2CCa.
26. For example, Richard Easterlin, whose early work on happiness is credited with sparking academic interest in the issue by economic researchers, sums up the literature: “Life events in the non-pecuniary domain, such as marriage, divorce and serious disability, have a lasting effect on happiness” and “an increase in income, and thus in the goods at one’s disposal, does not bring with it a lasting increase in happiness.” Easterlin, “Explaining Happiness,” 11177.
27. Marx quoted in R. Layard, Happiness: Has Social Science a Clue?, Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures (London School of Economics, 2003), lecture 1, p. 13. Layard is also the author of Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (Penguin, 2005).
28. Somewhat related to this view, a recent study from the World Bank takes a broader view of country prosperity, looking at human capital, environmental resources, and country balance sheets. G.-M. Lange, Q. Wodon, and K. Carey, eds., The Changing Wealth of Nations, 2018: Building a Sustainable Future (World Bank Group, 2018), https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29001/9781464810466.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y.
29. See David Skilling’s article “The Future of Small Economies in a Changed World,” Straits Times, September 26, 2017, https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-future-of-small-economies-in-a-changed-world.
30. Credit Suisse Research Institute, “Getting Over Globalization,” 2017, https://www.credit-suisse.com/ch/en/about-us/research/research-institute/publications.html.