Prelude To War: World War 3 (Steve Case Thriller Book 1)

by Phillip Strang

  As the troops withdrew, the Taliban took up the vacuum, although their ability to respond was limited in areas outside of Kandahar, and the Warlords were strengthening their armies for the inevitable descent into chaos.

  ‘They are planning to withdraw from Helmand Province in the next few weeks.’ It was unexpected that André would reveal information as classified as this, but with Steve, he felt safe to do so. Abdul’s security clearance had been validated by Fred Bull, although he was still with the UN, and it was imperative that there was to be no conflict of interest. The UN was primarily a Humanitarian institution fostering cooperation and goodwill between nations.

  ‘It is not going to be an easy exercise, ‘André continued as they shared a beer at Steve’s guest house. ‘The Taliban are active in Helmand; they will not let us walk out in triumph. We utilised violence to subdue and attempted to remove them. They are bound to take advantage of the reducing troop numbers to wreak revenge.

  ‘It makes no sense, we spent years trying to rid the country of the odious influence, and here we are again, just letting them come back. Nothing has changed in the intervening years, apart from countless lives being lost, both Afghanis and foreigners.’

  ‘André, do you remember that conversation that we had with Archie Smyth at the think tank. He did not want to reveal it to the others at that time, it was too controversial. He had a solution, but it would not have been palatable; it would never have got the necessary authority.’

  ‘I remember. It amounted to wholesale murder. As a Christian, I could never accept his views or his solution, although, I must concede that his analysis of the Taliban was correct. If I consider his proposal from a military viewpoint, then I would be inclined to agree. The Taliban majority may be uneducated, violent and with little in their favour, but they are still human beings worthy of dignity and respect. It may be a solution, but it is not a solution that I would ever agree to.’

  Steve offered his input after a recent visit to the city. ‘I don’t see Kandahar remaining out of Taliban control for very long. I was there in the last week, and it was clearly visible that the people are moderating their behaviour in preparation for their return. The men on the street are growing their beards long, and the women are rarely seen now. You may see one occasionally, but there will be a male relative, accompanying them. The vendors on the street who were selling the counterfeit DVD’s and CD’s have vanished. The people know they’re coming back and Latif, our company’s manager, confirmed it was inevitable. He thought no more than four weeks after the foreign troops pull out before the Taliban make their move to the city. The Afghan military will endeavour to hold it, but they won’t stand a chance, and before the eventual fall, most will desert their post and attempt to exit the area. They know full well that any Afghan military caught in Kandahar will be summarily executed without exception.’

  ‘Latif is correct, that is how NATO sees the situation. The Taliban will take Kandahar and will isolate Herat from the rest of the country. Their only transportation route is via the ring road that passes through Kandahar.’

  Steve offered a further observation. ‘I noticed that the UN is pulling out of their comfortable compound in Kandahar. I went in there once, and the level of accommodation was in stark contrast to what was just outside the heavily secured compound gate. The UN personnel were living extremely well, while old women begged outside for a handful of rice. Their ubiquitous white Land Cruisers are rarely seen now.’

  Jalalabad, where troop withdrawals were to commence, did not concern them greatly. It was not a primary location for the initial controlling of mineral wealth. It certainly had emeralds and other valuable assets, but the logistics of travelling down the Kabul gorge did not appeal. It was also sufficiently isolated and there was the distinct possibility of the Taliban or the terrorist, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar taking control. The local Warlord would no doubt resist, but his degree of success was largely dependent on his ability to control the transport of legal goods and contraband through the Khyber Pass to Pakistan.

  Incidents were starting to escalate throughout the country. In Kabul, there was a Taliban campaign of bombing government buildings, and assassinating key figures in the central government. Even the Serena Hotel, which had the best security outside of the American Embassy and the Presidential Palace in Kabul, had been hit by the Taliban on a couple of occasions.

  ‘Surely, Kunduz will go over to the Taliban. It is up in the north close to the border with Uzbekistan, and they have their own group of fundamentalists. They have been known to assist the Taliban.’ Steve asked.

  André, who had been travelling around the country assisting in the vacating of the various military posts replied. ‘I was in Kunduz not so long ago. NATO has a significant presence there. There is a serious concern over violence as we pull out. The local Warlord is attempting to reassert his influence.

  ‘The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan maintains a close alliance with the Taliban. They will no doubt assist in the taking of the city. The Warlord may regard himself as resolute. He’s certainly arrogant, I’ll say that for him. I met him to sort out a satisfactory handover of our base, and his army, strong as it may be would not be able to resist the Uzbeki and Taliban fundamentalists, and of course if he were captured, he would face certain death.

  ‘In Kunduz, the Germans have been the effective military force for some years, however, in the period leading up to the withdrawal, there has been a significant escalation in incidents. They have increasingly come under attack and have been forced to respond. Unfortunately, innocent bystanders have been caught in the crossfire. This always leaves a bad feeling between the military and the local people.

  ‘The Taliban have been intimidating people to stop working for the foreigners. Many, who have left their employment, and then, being without an income, have joined the Taliban. In the outlying areas of the city, all of the girl’s schools have closed. The last one was shut down by the Taliban two weeks ago, after three of the teachers had their noses and ears cut off. A farmer, some distance from the city to the north, was executed by the Taliban, after it was discovered that he had invited some of the Germans into his modest farmhouse for a cup of tea.’

  ‘What’s the view on the other cities in the north?’ Steve asked. André seemed to have all the answers.

  ‘Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat should be relatively secure with the local Warlords strengthening their private armies. The Taliban did take Herat once, and it was a blood bath. They will, no doubt, after Kandahar focus on consolidating their power and direct their fighting towards Kabul.’

  Chapter 7

  The team in New York were into their second week, and the presentation at the White House was scheduled for the following Wednesday. ‘I have sent preliminary reports to my superiors. They have relayed the salient facts on to the president and the Security Council,’ Fred said, exhausted by now. He had not worked so hard for many years. ‘The response that I am receiving, shows a high level of interest in what we are proposing. We can expect the president to be well informed.

  ‘We are still without a conclusion, a tentative plan, and a timeline and our presentations have not yet concluded. I suggest we endeavour to wrap these up in the next three days.’

  ‘We must be prepared,’ Nick said.

  ‘Yes, I forgot. Both you and Chris have met the president.’

  ‘Let’s take note of what Nick has stated. I am suggesting we double our efforts to be ready.’ Fred said.

  ‘He will not be pleased if we dither in our presentation,’ Fred continued, ‘or if he finds obvious flaws in what we propose.’ It was clear that additional focus was required by the team. They were obviously jaundiced after so much time, but it needed a final push.

  Chris spoke, he had not said much in the first week, and his colleague, the charming Nick De Oliveira had been absent on some days. ‘Nick and I have come up with an innovative method to significantly increase the value of the assets in Afghanistan. We have run it past E
dward. He sees it as possible. It will require the complicity of the U.S. government. It will require bringing forward the dates of some major U.S. government legislation. Complicity has some unfortunate connotations which imply under the table, sleight of hand shuffling. What I am suggesting is legal and only requires the assistance of the government. It would also strike a major blow to Saudi Arabia, and the other nations that have used the control of their primary asset to hold the world to ransom. Oil prices would be lowered significantly as a result.’

  Fred added a further comment, he been briefed by Chris and Nick, at least in the generalisations of the plan. ‘It will also have a dramatic impact on international relations with many countries. It is diplomatic dynamite. I believe the president will take on board what we are proposing, and that approval will be given to implement. The dollar signs are too large, too seductive to ignore.’

  Events were moving faster than the think tank could take on board. Most of the group were academics and strategists. They were now heading into the world of implementation. This was not their area, but until they had formulated the plan, it could not be passed on to others more suited to the task.

  Fred spoke. ‘People, we know the pressure coming on to us. It is overwhelming and is forcing most of us out of our comfort zones. We have some people working for us, analysing, formulating, and crunching numbers. I am reliably informed that our budget is not going to be an issue. The results, however, are paramount.

  ‘Before we ask Grace to present, let me introduce two additional members to our team. Major General Roger ‘Digger’ Richards, Royal Australian Army Ordnance Corps, who has completed two tours of duty in Afghanistan and is to be our logistics expert, and Colonel Ernest Caruthers, Corp of Royal Engineers, British Army, Bridge and Road construction. Ernest, he prefers to be addressed as Ernie, is recently retired and acknowledged as the best there is on bridges, road upgrading and construction for military movements. He is well aware of the difficulties in the movement of heavy vehicles and machinery around Afghanistan, and will prove invaluable in the eventual mass movement into the country to secure and claim the mines.

  ‘Digger will not answer to any other name,’ continued Fred. ‘He told me after so many tours of duty with the British army, he gave up trying to get them to call him Roger. Even his wife calls him Digger now.

  ‘Introductions aside, we need to focus on specific mines in the country and then pin down and detail what we need to do. Grace, we need you to present the situation concerning the mines in Afghanistan.’

  Grace Tang, a petite, elegant woman in her early 40s, looked Eurasian; her surname indicated that her father was Chinese. When she spoke, it was obvious she was as sharp as a tack. ‘Let us look at what is in place and working. Nothing high tech, lots of picks and shovels – and, of course, no safety practices. Fatality rates last year at one mine were higher than all the mines in the USA combined.

  ‘Let me say that my position at Howland Mining Corporation, serves me well for a comprehensive understanding of what we have in Afghanistan. Howland, as one of the top three mining companies in the world, has the advantage of actively mining virtually all the minerals that we are discussing.’ She was waffling a little. Early start-up nerves, thought Fred. Not everyone was comfortable in such a forum. Even the best could be overwhelmed.

  Fred lightened the moment. ‘Take a deep breath and go, Grace. You’re the star act today.’

  Grace giggled nervously and then got on with the presentation. Her slides were comprehensive and detailed. ‘The Chinese have staked a claim in the Aynak copper region, close to Kabul, with plans to put in two power stations and a railroad to take the copper out through Tajikistan to China. The reserves are believed to be close to one hundred billion dollars, although due to the deteriorating security situation in the country, they have abandoned the site. They are planning to drill for oil in the northeast of the country and also in the Western portion of the Afghan-Tajik block. The oil in total amounts to over twenty billion dollars.

  ‘We need to clarify the route that we will exit the country.’ She paused and glanced at Fred. ‘Is it still Iran?’ Fred nodded in the affirmative. ‘That is how my presentation shows it,’ she went on. ‘Then the route is as such. We enter and exit the country using Route 606, the Delaram to Zaranj Highway, and across the border to Zabol in Iran. Then we connect from Zabol down to Port Chabahar in Iran on the Gulf of Oman, a distance of eight hundred and forty-seven kilometres.

  ‘The easiest mines to access are in the most difficult area from a security point of view. Helmand province and the areas between Kandahar and Kabul will all be subject to Taliban control. As we believe, the Taliban will take back the south-west. They may ultimately wrest control in Kabul, but the North will not be viable for them to take or hold.’

  ‘Let’s take a break for lunch.’ Fred did not want Grace concerning herself about the security situation; she was there to talk about the mines and to let others address the issue of the Taliban.

  With lunch concluded, Grace continued. ‘It is also clear the Taliban will control the road from Delaram through Zaranj and on to the Iranian border.’

  ‘Let’s focus on the Taliban-controlled areas,’ said Grace.

  ‘Edward spoke about Lithium, and that the major deposits are down in Helmand Province. There are four areas there which contain the mineral, plus another potential source in the north up near Herat and two secondary sources closer into Kabul. It is the easiest mineral to extract. Basically, scrape the top surface on a salt lake and then separate the lithium. I will try to summarise without getting too deep or technical.

  Grace’s presenting style was not the most exhilarating. Her voice was monotone, varying little in pitch and intensity; she would never be a motivational speaker.

  ‘Bolivia is currently the largest source of lithium in the world is ramping up production to thirty thousand tonnes per year, and that is only one fifth of the current demand. Afghanistan has substantially more of this mineral than Bolivia.

  ‘The remainder of the country has substantial amounts of coal, iron, gold and copper, totalling to over two, possibly three trillion dollars. Little in the way of development, the Chinese and Indian companies have since abandoned their sites due to the security situation.

  ‘Natural gas is to the west of Herat – at least five hundred million barrels, but there is no way to transport out of the country.

  ‘Two hundred million dollars’ worth of emeralds are smuggled out of the country each year. Properly mined, this one precious stone could add at least two billion dollars a year to the economy.

  ‘On a final note, the Gross Domestic Product of Afghanistan is potentially greater than either India or Australia. It remains the potentially richest piece of real estate on the planet.’

  Chapter 8

  As he looked in the bathroom mirror that morning, Fred Bull reflected that he looked a lot better than he had in many a long year. It was the day that select members of the team were to present to the President of the United States at the White House. The president prided himself on his fitness, Nick De Oliveira always dressed impeccably, and it had dawned on Fred that he looked dishevelled and grubby compared to them. It had been two weeks earlier, when he had realised that he looked more like the office janitor, than the leader of the think tank.

  Unfortunately, two weeks had not been sufficient time to cure a lifetime’s indulgence of eating, drinking, and generally being a couch potato. Since that realisation, the family dog had started to feel fitter, it was walked twice a day now, and the budget for food in the Bull household had reduced dramatically. He still found the exercises at the gym tiring, but he ensured that every morning and evening, he would walk for half an hour at least.

  With a healthy glow, a new suit, a silk tie, and a freshly pressed shirt, he felt invigorated as he arrived at the North-West gate of the White House. It was eight in the morning and the meeting with the president was for ten. Two hours was the required time to deal
with the numerous security checks in place and hopefully at least thirty minutes to run through the presentation with the team.

  Grace Tang, Oliver Young, and Ernest Caruthers had come in the car with him that day.

  He had considered taking Archie Smyth to talk about infiltration and control of terrorist and extremist organisations, but he felt this was a little premature. Fred was wrong; infiltration and control were very much in the mind of certain persons at the meeting.

  ‘We have at least fifteen minutes before the president arrives. He will certainly be on time.’ The security checks had been quicker than expected and Fred was taking the opportunity for a last-minute pep talk. ‘I am assuming that the discussion will be hypothetical.’ Fred was wrong again. He had reasoned that the leadership of the country, or any country, would not want to be seen to be in the driving seat of such a venture as was being proposed. If it were successful, they would be more than pleased to take the accolades. If not, they would be able to distance themselves. They would be able to offer plausible deniability. The standard statements would be availed, actions of others not validated by the White House, by Congress and so on. The president, he reasoned was in his second term, and it was unlikely that he would want to sully his legacy of competent stewardship of the nation, restoration of optimism within the economy, and the pulling out of the troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

  Anyway, the fruition of the Game would not be seen in its entirety until possibly four or five years in the future. There would be another president then, and that person would not have a moment’s hesitation in accepting the praise. There would be no mention in whose administration the Game commenced, unless it had all gone wrong. Then they would remember.