Prelude To War: World War 3 (Steve Case Thriller Book 1)

by Phillip Strang

  ‘There are believed to be moderate Taliban,’ George Hampshire entered the conversation. ‘However, those in the past who have raised their heads have been invariably assassinated. We will discuss this further after Archie details his analysis and understanding of the projected areas under Taliban control. The resources are just too valuable to be left alone. Apart from our economic loss, there are strategic implications with Russia sitting in this part of the world again.

  ‘Fred, would you like to say a few words.’

  Fred Bull had said relatively little so far in the meeting. His healthy living and regular exercise regime were paying off, and his recent promotion to Senior Director of the Office in New York had recognised his leadership and cemented his importance. The new position came with an increase in salary, and he took the opportunity to update his tired wardrobe.

  ‘Thanks, George. I appreciate the opportunity to say a few words. I am pleased to see Chuck and Howard here. The original team, including myself, expressed disquiet when the military involvement was first put forward. However, we are comfortable in the knowledge that the president has given his assurance that the military involvement would be to assist, not to invade, and that Chuck and Howard to a large part validate that assurance. The original team who first hypothesised the move into Afghanistan are mainly academics, and by nature idealistic. They have since taken a pragmatic view that this operation is to be more complex.

  ‘Russia’s interest has brought in a heightened sense of urgency, and we need to move fast to prevent them acting first. We had always foreseen the possibility of their objections, and possible actions, but it was not our primary focus. Now the original think tank is analysing how the situation will play out with the Russians.

  ‘So far, we have heard little from Steve, but be assured, he is to become an integral part of the operations to come. I can see Chuck and Howard, as well as Archie placing great emphasis, and no doubt, pressure on him in the ensuing months.’

  There was a short break for Lunch. Chuck ate a big steak, the others, moderate portions with Fred maintaining his healthy routine eating just a small piece of chicken and salad. I could devour that steak in a minute, thought Fred. He was not going to break his diet, but as with a reformed alcoholic, a reformed over-eater never loses the desire, the temptation to relapse. Senior Director Bull had decided that he was never going to weaken.

  ***

  Archie was to be given his opportunity to put forward his controversial plan. He was hopeful that Chuck and Howard would see the rationale in his arguments. He ran the risk of being branded insensitive and cruel, lacking in any humanity or compassion.

  ‘Archie, we would appreciate your presenting now.’ Fred had brought the group to order.

  ‘The original Game was initially hypothetical. It has evolved into a high-possibility based on certain factors,’ Archie said. ‘Those factors, a clear entry into the country with a compliant hierarchy of people such as the Warlords and their local commanders, and most importantly, a moderate leadership within the Taliban. I am purposely not mentioning the central government. Their position at the very least seems untenable. The Warlords are fuelled by power and money; this, we could ultimately satisfy, although how we could trust them to honour the deal and not come back for more remains a concern. I do have a solution which we can discuss at a later time.

  ‘I have looked at the operation that the USA and its allies have fought against the Taliban over the years, and let me be frank. I am disappointed. It has cost over five hundred billion dollars and countless troops, against a ragtag bunch of locals.

  ‘Let me say, that was my initial reaction. Since then, I have spent a lot of time analysing these results. I now believe that this was the best possible outcome utilising the tactics as required by Western sensibilities and modern military tactics.

  ‘The Taliban cannot be defeated, even if we stay there with our military for a hundred years, and invest ten times more than we currently do on a yearly basis.’

  ‘That is a fair statement,’ interjected Chuck Grayson.

  ‘Their numbers are not large, probably no more than thirty-five thousand with a similar number in the background,’ Archie continued. ‘Moderate and compliant is not sufficient, they have to be eliminated. I say this not only for the economics of the country, but for the good of the region. One of the Taliban commanders has already stated that they will take Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. They will have no issue in using them. You are, I am assuming, aware that these are located to the North of Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.

  ‘The economic move into Afghanistan cannot avoid the Taliban, and the issues confronting the country cannot be resolved while they remain. The concept of a moderate Taliban is flawed. They are not to be trusted.’

  ‘Archie is correct,’ Chuck said.

  ‘I agree with Chuck,’ Howard said. ‘The moderate Taliban do not stand a chance. It just won’t work.’

  Archie felt emboldened by Howard and Chuck’s comments. Fred was feeling increasingly nervous. It sounded like a massive elimination exercise, and whereas he had some inkling of Archie’s solution, the mass killing of people, not matter how ignorant or how biased and violent they were, was not sitting easy with him. Steve could see the rationale, but he certainly would not want to be in the country when it occurred. Unfortunately, that was exactly where Archie wanted him. George and Rusty had a clear idea where he was heading, but no idea, how, or, if the permission would be granted for such an activity.

  ‘I can see by the looks on your faces that my direction about the Taliban is raising many concerns. I will continue, and hopefully, all will see the wisdom in my presentation. I suspect many in the original think tank and the general public will never agree with my solution.

  ‘The idea that the people of Afghanistan would welcome us with open arms is naïve and blatantly incorrect. They will see us as an invader, regardless of whether we come with guns or bearing olive branches. The Taliban will garner overwhelming support in their opposition to us, and they will fight us every inch of the way.

  ‘I reiterate, elimination is the only option. It is the only hope for Afghanistan to rise from the quagmire. Either we do it, and claim the economic wealth of Afghanistan for ourselves and the Afghan people, or we let Russia take it. Their approach will be to go in with a full military and guns blazing. It will be a total bloodbath.’

  Both Chuck and Howard wanted to speak. Chuck was first, ‘Archie, it is disconcerting to hear the truth. Your perception of the country and the dismal result of our militaries is correct. The USA and NATO with their combined military forces, the best training, the best armaments, and the best disciplined and trained soldiers, have not been able to subdue a relatively small number of local tribesmen.

  ‘You are aware of the covert operations that are being conducted in Afghanistan.’

  Archie nodded. Chuck continued. ‘Covert operations have been continuing by U.S. Navy seals in the case of Bin Laden, the Special Activities Division of the C.I.A., and Task Force 373 from NATO. Task Force 373 has a list of over two thousand Taliban persons of interest, the U.S. a similar number.’

  Archie interrupted Chuck, almost mid-sentence, ‘Would the Taliban be decisively finished if you eliminated those four thousand?’

  It was Howard that replied, ‘No, they would be substantially weakened, but they would recover. It may well happen that their insurgency and their ability to respond would be severely curtailed for some years, but in time, they would regroup and continue their extremist interpretation of Islam.’

  Archie quickly replied. He sensed his moment. ‘Then, from my analysis of the situation, we need to do the following: eliminate all leadership that are clearly not moderate, remove all non-Pashto speaking Taliban. Those who do not speak Pashto are foreign Taliban fighters, and their position or otherwise in the hierarchy of the Taliban is unimportant. Seal all the porous borders to prevent additional foreign soldiers coming to support the cause.

 
; ‘I grant the last requirement will be difficult. It will need the assistance of the Pakistan government. They have at times acted in a manner contrary to our interests in the region. They have never been open in this, but we know full well that this has been the case.

  ‘No doubt, once the elimination exercise commences, the mobilisation of the Taliban in Baluchistan and Waziristan across the border in Pakistan will be swift. We must prevent their entry into Afghanistan. Any that endeavour to cross must either be deterred or eliminated. The Pakistan Government must be encouraged to do this for us, but in the initial stages, we will take responsibility.

  ‘We are aware that the U.S. intends to leave a nominal number of troops in Afghanistan, contrary to any agreement with the Afghan government. This is logical, although it is assumed that it will not be indefinite. As long as some foreign troops remain, we can assume that the country will not collapse into total chaos. Certainly, the Taliban are unlikely to take Kabul during this period. The Afghan Army could not resist the Taliban for long, regardless of what our relative governments may profess in the Western media. Kandahar will fall regardless, but with just the local military to protect, Kabul would be easily taken.’

  Steve spoke, ‘Can you please clarify what you mean by “eliminate” and “remove” when you are referring to the Taliban.’

  ‘Apologies for my quaint terminology; I mean “Kill”. There always is reluctance in the intelligence services to clearly spell out the correct word. It has a tendency to bring emotion into the equation, and emotion is not what is required. A war situation needs impartiality and clear minds.’

  ‘It is still mass murder.’

  ‘You are right, and therein is the dilemma. To allow them to continue will cause a much greater loss of life than I am proposing. If anyone can come up with a more socially acceptable solution, then I am willing to consider it, but there is no alternative. It may be blasé, but if Afghanistan were a human with a cancerous growth, then the offending growth would be removed. In Afghanistan, that cancer is the Taliban.’

  Steve disturbed, but not totally opposed to Archie’s solution felt the need to comment further. ‘I am not disputing the wisdom of what you are proposing. I have seen the results of Taliban activity, and certainly cancerous is not a difficult term to apply to them.’

  ‘It is subject to presidential approval, and I do not believe that he would be willing to make a decision of this gravity at this time,’ Archie said. ‘What I am s proposing is that we as a group obtain the data we require. I would ask Steve to take responsibility for the intelligence coordination in the country, and concurrently, we formulate the detailed plan of action. There will come a time when the president will be placed in a situation, that he along with the Security Council, will approve the action.

  ‘Once, the activity is initiated we will have a limited time before the human rights groups, the caring population of all our countries and the U.N will raise arguments against our solution. There will be massive demonstrations and protests around the world once it becomes known, and they are all right to be incensed. I agree with them totally, it is barbaric and cruel. It should not be allowed, but it is the lesser evil. To let them remain for many years into the future, is to subject countless millions to live under their primitive and savage control.’

  George took the opportunity to take a break and to change the subject of discussion. ‘I realise that we have spent all of our time discussing the Taliban, and it is clear that Archie is passionate about the subject. I would request that we take a break, and afterwards, we turn our focus to Russia. I would recommend that Archie forms a committee of relevant persons to continue with the formulation of what he is proposing. I agree in the validity of his proposal, but it is going to be a hard sell, and those who may ultimately be obliged to grant permission will certainly do so with a heavy heart.’

  ***

  George opened the proceedings after the break. ‘At this present moment, Archie has given us a solution to the Taliban, which while bold in its scope, raises some issues. Can the Taliban be neutralised? Do we have the moral right to consider it? And whether we would receive approval for such action?

  ‘It is certainly a dramatic solution that Archie has put forward, but the scope of the Game may well require such action.’

  Rusty brought the subject back to Russia. ‘Could we agree now to talk about the possible mobilising of Russian troops on the northern borders?’

  Fred responded. ‘The think tank has evaluated the question of Russia on the northern borders. It was felt this would have happened, or at least it was hoped that there would have been time to stabilise Afghanistan before they came knocking at the door. I would like to put forward the scenario as to how we see Russia’s actions and our response in dealing with the events as they unfold.

  ‘Russia would need to move down through Kazakhstan and then either Tajikistan or Uzbekistan. Not so easy for them today, they are no longer puppet regimes of the Soviet Union. As we see it, we would have adequate warning of at least a few weeks. Then, when they get to the border of Afghanistan, they will go through the “beating of the chest” in New York at the UN, and with any media organisation they can find.

  ‘We will meanwhile utilise the Warlords and their private armies to man the borders. They will have little choice. It is either, the West with our sense of decency and fair play, or the Russians. They will choose us. They clearly cannot prevent the might of the Russian military, if they decide to cross the border. It will provide some initial deterrent to the Russians. Their president, on the one hand, will be stating that they are coming to the protection of the Afghan people, and on the other hand, they will be fighting these very same people for the right to come into their country. They will have a very weak argument, and this will be after, they have effectively ignored the clear directives of the three countries to the north and crossed through their lands. Russia will no longer have a defendable argument.

  ‘I should add that Archie’s plan, if successful, will be forgotten within a short period of time. The general public is fickle, and while the media constantly bombards them with negativity and wantons acts of violence, they will respond with increasing anger. Once the exercise concludes, the media will quickly lose interest and divert their attention elsewhere.

  ‘It is agreed that we do not want a direct confrontation between the U.S. military and the Russian Army at the northern border of Afghanistan. We will maintain a massive force out of the country, purposively for exercises in the Indian Ocean, at bases in Europe, and we will be maintaining some military bases in Afghanistan. This will hold the Russians from making a major incursion in Afghanistan, although it is to be expected that there will be border skirmishes with Warlords and their private armies.

  ‘There is a strong likelihood that this confrontation will go to the wire; in fact, it must. Russia will not back off. It would only be seen as a weakness on their behalf. This will take us, as close to war as at any time in the past fifty to sixty years. It is to be “The Cuban missile crisis” all over again, although, in that instance, the Russian and American troops were separated by a long distance. Here they are relatively close.

  ‘We will tough it out, and then at the optimum moment, a deal will be struck between the USA and Russia, whereby, we will be utilising their capacity for refining oil, and their pipelines for moving the oil and gas to Europe. This will obviate our need to build such pipelines down through Pakistan.

  ‘We have investigated the deals that can be struck, we will refine and continually update as the scenario is played out; Russia, at the last minute will back off. The agreement that we will put forward will be too good for them to refuse, and hopefully, this will have been achieved without our military being present on the front line.

  ‘China will also be causing trouble, but not militarily. We will strike a similar deal to allow them to take selected resources out of the country. They are too powerful to ignore, and they remain a major trading partner of the USA.


  ‘This is a new approach to the resolution of Afghanistan, the USA and Russian relations, and our dealings with China.’

  The room was silenced by the brevity of what Fred had just outlined. It was breath-taking in its scope. Eventually, it fell to George, to sum up the mood in the room, ‘Fred, we are stunned by what you have outlined. It is almost too much for us to absorb. I will need to pass on to the president what you expounded so eloquently. I suggest for now that I call this meeting to a close. Fred, you will obviously be continuing with what he has just outlined. Archie, you will be following up with Chuck, Howard and Steve.’

  Chapter 15

  Kabul airport was a dissolute sight when Steve landed back after ten days in New York, and two days on the way over with Megan in London. Heavy-hearted, he was already missing her, and that coupled with the chaos of the city, weighed on his mind. What am I doing back here? He thought. His gloomy mood was not to last for long. He knew why he was there, and he was excited. That excitement was tempered by nervousness, but he still felt proud to be involved in such a momentous undertaking. He was still not comfortable with Archie’s solution for the Taliban, but he would give it tacit support.

  ‘There has been a suicide bombing down in the centre of town. They were targeting the Minister for Communications. They missed him but killed two of his bodyguards. The traffic is at a standstill,’ Faheed said when he picked him up at the airport.

  ‘When is the traffic not at a standstill? It does not need a bombing,’ Steve replied.

  ‘True, but today is particularly bad. It’s getting worse. The Taliban seem to be able to move easily around the city, bombing and killing with impunity.’

  Faheed, a Tajik, had worked alongside Steve as his office manager for some years. A short, stocky man in his forties with a straggly beard, Steve trusted him implicitly. His English was excellent, his politics were moderate, and his religion was devout but private. He abhorred the fundamentalists and the endemic corruption in the country.